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jaimi.bsky.social @jaimi.bsky.social · 6h

Scott Bessent started the “Blame Ukraine, not Trump’s War” Big Lie on Sept 5th, it looks like—Trump and other cabinet members doubling down three days later is when & why I started my Refinery Wars spreadsheet and graphing to debunking it

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries against Brent Crude and US diesel prices by month, January 2021 - August 2026
Data sources: Ukrainian refinery strikes collected by Kostiantyn Hoholenko on Bluesky Brent Crude daily prices from Business Insider Markets
US diesel weekly prices from US Federal Reserve Database (FRED)

(Oil and fuel prices spike when Russia invades Ukraine in late February 2022, trend steadily down again as Ukraine sends drones against Russian refineries in increasing numbers, then spike once more when the US attacks Iran in late February 2026)

Pie chart showing days of US Average Diesel Prices as a Percentage of Brent
Crude Highs Jan 1, 2019 - Sept 30, 2026 (2812 consecutive days) from US Federal Reserve & Business Insider data

5% ratio = 66.7%
4 & 6 % = 30.8%
3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11% combined = 2.4%

5% = 1,876 days
6% = 475 days
4% = 391 days
8% = 19 days
7% = 15 days
10 % = 15 days
11% = 9 days
9 % = 7 days
3 % = 5 days

Created with Datawrapper

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Bosphorus Observer @yoruk.bsky.social · 5h

Trump has been hiding his Russian diesel deal for over a month: the deal was announced yesterday, but it was likely agreed when Witkoff and Kushner visited the Kremlin on 5th September. While Trump was signing the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on 18th September,…

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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 9h

For those playing along at home: To give the appearance of action on the impacts of his humiliating blunder on the world stage, the President of the United States is making a humiliating blunder on the world stage by bailing the Russian president out of a humiliating blunder on the world stage.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 6h

One senior Ukrainian official responded with bitter humor: “I hope the Americans don’t give them Patriot to protect their oil refineries.” Another said the US move had effectively undermined the idea of an energy truce.

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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 8h

So Trump has been planning to stitch up Ukraine for weeks.

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Constantine @teoyaomiquu.bsky.social · 8h

Despite Daily bombings of innocent civilians by russia and the USA betrayal Ukraine is still standing and fighting for its survival You can help Ukraine by donating towards engineering equipment using link below Equipment is used to build shelter and bunkers givebutter.com/liberty-engi...

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Jake Broe @realjakebroe.bsky.social · 8h

Cartoon by Bill Bramhall

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WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 9h

The first Russian diesel shipment is reaching the US East Coast barely 24 hours post announcement, indicating the pact preceded its public reveal as the tanker Minerva Zen departed St. Petersburg back on September 22.

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Tim White @twmcltd.bsky.social · 15h

Day 1690 and Ukraine woke up incredibly angry this morning. "Used", "betrayed" and "disgusted" just 3 of the words most commonly heard, as the former leader of the free world managed to tarnish the reputation of the U.S. yet more. I've never missed a day. This is the daily 🧵

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Wild Hornets 🐝 @wildhornets.bsky.social · 13h

A jet-powered Shahed intercepted last night: 438th Air Defense UAV Battalion in action 🔥 The crew used a STING interceptor equipped with the Hornet Vision CTRL remote-control system.

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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

To put in perspective what 1,8 million tons of diesel are in terms of Russian export capacity. In 2023-2024 Russia per week could export 800-900 000 tons of diesel fuel.

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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 14h

“The dangers Trump and Putin face are so great they will go to any lengths to avoid them. They have no other choice.”

chadbourn.substack.com

The Next Three Months

Trump and Putin are now at their most dangerous

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Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 15h

Good to see Donald buy Russian diesel instead of Canadian. I know its right on USA border but they sell imperialist, woke diesel that makes your truck gay.

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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 15h

Diesel may be just the beginning of the bargaining. At this stage of the negotiations between Russia and the US, I can see the Kremlin’s interests. I can see Putin’s personal interests. I can see benefits for certain American business groups.

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…

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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 18h

good lord how can anyone be this whiny; are you not ashamed

Donald Trump writes on Truth Social: "This is the woman who received the Nobel Peace Prize over the Great United States of America, whose Representative, ME, settled eight Wars, and many other things. I know nothing about this woman, and neither does anyone else! In fact, to the best of my knowledge, no one ever heard of her other than the fact that she, very obviously, hates Israel. I don’t know what the woman has done. I settled 8 Wars, with letters being sent from every President and Prime Minister from the countries that I helped to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and I’m about to settle, or win, two more, Iran and, Russia/Ukraine. They’re both happening at breakneck speed but, forget them, it’s the 8 that I’ve already settled, any one of which, in particular, Pakistan and India, would be far more than necessary to win the Nobel Prize. In actuality, I should have won 8 Nobel Peace Prizes, not just 1. The 8 Wars are:"

Donald Trump writes on Truth Social: "Cambodia and Thailand
Kosovo and Serbia
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda
Pakistan and India
Israel and Iran
Egypt and Ethiopia
Armenia and Azerbaijan
Israel and Hamas
Additionally, I stopped Iran from having a Nuclear Weapon, and blowing up the entire Middle East and, ultimately, far beyond! I saved more lives than anyone in History and, as Maria Corina Machado, a truly fine person, stated to the Media when she gave me her Nobel Prize of last year, “Donald Trump settled many Wars, and deserves the Nobel Peace Prize more than any person that has ever received it.” Based on my record of PEACE, a record like no one else has ever achieved, I agree! I got back all of the hostages in Israel, including the final 28, both living and dead, and worked with Hamas to"

Donald Trump writes on Truth Social: "PEACE, a record like no one else has ever achieved, I agree! I got back all of the hostages in Israel, including the final 28, both living and dead, and worked with Hamas to do it — Nobody believed this was possible! I removed the World’s Evil Dictator, Nicolas Maduro, from Venezuela, and am in the process of making Venezuela a rich Democracy. Likewise, with Iran, I stopped them from destroying Israel, the Middle East, and Europe. I am also preventing, on a constant basis, a War between South Korea and North Korea, and Japan and North Korea. Add China and Taiwan, and numerous other hot spots, which have not been involved in Wars, only because of President Donald J. Trump, and the United States of America. I am responsible for having NATO countries increase spending from 2% to 5% of GDP, creating a stronger alliance and defense, another thing that everybody said was impossible to do. I have negotiated the release, and secured the return, of more than 900 political prisoners from multiple countries"

Donald Trump writes on Truth Social: "another thing that everybody said was impossible to do. I have negotiated the release, and secured the return, of more than 900 political prisoners from multiple countries in Eastern Europe. Additionally, I have brought 196 hostages HOME from captivity, from all over the World, and did it without having paid a ransom, unlike Biden and Obama who would pay Billions of Dollars. On top of it all, I have created a soon to be very prosperous Arctic. Despite all of this, the Nobel Prize was given today to a liberal person who works at the United Nations, who nobody has ever heard of. In all of the Wars that I have settled, I never spoke to the United Nations—they were of no help. The United States of America, represented by me, as your President, should have received the Nobel Peace Prize, but didn’t. This is an indelible stain on Norway, one that will never be forgotten. The Nobel “Peace” Prize has been forever discredited by a handful of Radical Ideologues who are Anti-Democracy, and Enemies of Civilization! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

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Malcontent News @malcontentnews.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The Big Story? Russian missile strike in Pryluky kills 22, wounds 54 - Russian bomb hits city buses in Kramatorsk: at least 12 dead The Russia-Ukraine War SITREP No. 1,089, for October 7, 2026, is 66 pages long and a full report that includes NATO and Moldova.