iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

You should keep in mind that Ukraine's offer is to stop along the front line, while the Russian front line is 6000–8000 km² away from Ukrainian proposal.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Putin stated at Valdai that Ukraine controls only 11% of Donetsk Oblast ~2 900 km² RIA paints 650 km² less, leaving 3 540 km² unoccupied. Meanwhile, Suriyak shows 4 525 km², and DS red leaves 5 200 km² unoccupied. RIA painted 730km² this year so far ~ 3 more years.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Infiltration-clearing loop Two or three men groups can slip through unnoticed, and that is enough to start a fight for a village. Getting them out again can take weeks. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMqI...

youtube.com

The Clearing Loop: Kazennyi Torets, South-West of Druzhkivka, 2026

YouTube video by OsintMonstas

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Russian Bombs and Drones The 7-day average for bombs almost reached 330 at one point, but the month still ended with a record-breaking average of 305 bombs a day. Meanwhile, despite grim expectations in August, drone usage declined to 9 795 and has fallen back to February levels.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

GSUA reported 7139 Attacks and 45 770 IvanZ 60% of attacks are undefined. average losses per reported attack reached 18 man per attack.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Punishing The Orbit Bombs break fixed positions, drones suppress what survives and open routes through the obstacles, and infantry follows on foot to take the ground. The problem is timing: a bomb can remove a building in seconds, but the infantry meant to exploit it may still be days away.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Moscow announced the capture of Mala Tokmachka in November 2025. Ten months later the village is still contested. 545 days of fighting for it, from the first Russian armoured push in April 2025 to the small groups still hiding in its ruins at the end of September 2026.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Infiltration Mechanics - Days of suffering, compressed into seconds

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

RT published their vision of the front with encircled Dobropillia

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The Retraction Loop The northern claw is gone, collected the way these things always are — the arrows showed up to record a result produced weeks earlier. Lyman is the reference; this is what it costs.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I have two big articles about Kramatorsk, i dont want to generate 30 messages long threads, will publish screens instead. will look how those will perform.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Lyman and Huliapole - fronts doesnt overlap, same started to develop at Dobropillia. Operation reports diverge by dozen kilometers now. The largest difference is 40km at Lyman - from Zarichne to Oskil. Russians got invested into deep infiltrations.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Lyman and Repeat Nothing has been announced, and the maps are split the way they've been split all campaign: DeepState still has it red alongside RIA, while Suriyak has the whole area cleared. It's time to ask what comes next, where, and why.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The Bill Comes Due GSUA — reports Lyman-area clashes every day. Сounteroffensive wasn't officially reported yet, but the hype train already left the station regardless, so here's my take.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Mass missile attack. 142/166 — Drones 31/32 — Kh-101 / Iskander-K 2/? — Ballistic 29 locations were hit, with 9 more damaged by debris. More than half of the 166 drones were reported as jet-powered. Main targets were Odesa and Kyiv oblasts

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Network should be the main determinant of strike efficiency. A jet drone is just a shitty missile, but add guidance and a stable connection, and it becomes a scalpel. The same drones can only operate within connection range on both sides.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Drone reach zones. 0–190 km Mid-range strikes 190–390 km FP2 range 390–1010 km FP1 100kg range 1010–2510 km max FP1 60 kg range FP5 can operate within green zone, but can barely cross the orange.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Alabuga over the years 2023/2024/2025/2026

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Season of Counter-Arrows: Summer 2026 Retrospective Appendix The working behind the summer retrospective — where each figure comes from, which ones need a caveat, and how the January forecast scores against the same map. claude.ai/code/artifac...

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Season of Counter-Arrows: Summer 2026 Retrospective Part3 Retrospective and Expectation towards the last quarter bsky.app/profile/mons...

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Season of Counter-Arrows: Summer 2026 Retrospective Part2 The battle for 3 objectives bsky.app/profile/mons...

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Season of Counter-Arrows: Summer 2026 Retrospective Part 1 Summer is over, and Russia is sliding into its usual pivot toward an October offensive. This was a genuinely difficult season to score. Both sides found real reasons for optimism, and most of them don't survive close reading.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

From “Where?” to “Why?” in eight months. Difference between the sides: On Jan: DS grey vs. RIA — 1 000 km² DS red vs. RIA — 1 940 km² By Sep: DS grey vs. RIA — 3 500 km² DS red vs. RIA — 4 820 km² Year started with a minor disagreement that has grown into an abyss by now.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

August summary Two square kilometres. That is what the month of assaults and 42000 ivanZ bought

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

August Strike Details The month the missile count stopped being a number. Too many records for a single month, but nothing unusual. claude.ai/code/artifac...

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Map August DS — Total: -103 km²: Captured: 2 km², Grayed: -104 km²; Suriyak — Total: 95 (↑546 ↓451) km² - the largest swings ever; RIA — Total: 481 (↑497 ↓17) km²; Diff between DS and RIA exceeded 5000 km².

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

The Retaliation Ceiling Russia has been hitting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure since day one — a capable aggressor able to threaten almost any fixed target and keep trying until it gets through. That doesn't mean it can win.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

FRONTLINE — WEEK 35 (24–30 Aug) claude.ai/code/artifac...

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

All the Marine Corps brigades. The 144th is in Kherson, so it would be fair to move it under the Marine Corps umbrella and split the Marines into two corps instead. Also, Newly created brigades will take the vacant places in the other Corps.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Frontline Week 34 2026 17–23 August 2026, measured against week 33. Russian ground assaults eased while stand-off fires rose in every fully-reported category. Ground change was small and dominated by infiltration rather than capture. claude.ai/code/artifac...

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The world's most distinguished border.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Twelve months of the USF killboard claude.ai/code/artifac...

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Very diverse attack on Kyiv. Different missiles from different angles, all night long. Brovary was hit the most, losing more warehouses and another fuel base. The most remarkable feature was the ballistic arrivals in two dense groups.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Couple days ago the AFU attempted to strike Moscow once again, with Russian sources claiming all ~500 drones were shot down. There was some minor damage, but no major fires overall.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

129x 40kV+ Crimean substations and those few that still need a visit

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

The Fortress Belt created a problem Ukraine was never capable of resolving. A huge urban area where nobody has the authority, funds or power to properly prepare it. Thousands of civilians prevent proper transformation but keep the area alive. There will be neither an area nor people at the end.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

The Active-Passive Line The grey zone didn't erase the boundary between offense and defense. It relocated it. The line no longer separates attacker from defender — it separates the side that's moving from the side that's staying put.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

DS 118.5 km² less red, 241.73 km² of blue

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

The Silence Dividend A few weeks into Drapatyi's command, I see two changes worth tracking. Neither is dramatic on its own, but together they look like an attempt to address the constraint of Russia being able to exploit gaps faster than Ukraine can reliably close them.

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monstars.bsky.social @monstars.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Recent changes in AFU assault regiment manning are targeting this specific issue — restoring corps to their baseline strength to improve their ability to hold ground.

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