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Thiago Scarelli

@tscarelli.bsky.social
233 followers 389 following 27 posts

Lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford | PhD from the Paris School of Economics | Labor, Development, Stats thiagoscarelli.github.io

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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
We're hiring! The Department of Economics, University of Oxford is recruiting for two permanent Lecturer/Senior Lecturer positions: economics.web.ox.ac.uk/lecturer/sen... and economics.web.ox.ac.uk/lecturer/sen.... Applications close 25 May.
economics.web.ox.ac.uk
Lecturer/Senior Lecturer in Economics
Deadline: Monday, 25 May, 2026
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Michel Nivard @michelnivard.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Every time I fill up the department coffee machine I am so so tempted to use decaf… they gotta learn its a RANDOMIZE OR BE RANDOMIZED world out there…
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
The Atkinson Conference on Economic and Social Inequality will take place on 10-11 September at Nuffield College (Oxford). ▶️Plenaries: Philippe Aghion, Janet Gornick & roundable moderated by FT's Sarah O'Connor. 🚩CfP Deadline: 22 May. Join us in Oxford! Details here: atkinsonconference.github.io
atkinsonconference.github.io
The Atkinson Conference on Economic and Social Inequality
A two-day interdisciplinary conference on economic and social inequality at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. 10–11 September 2026.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
He couldn't tell whether life was better. He publicly enjoyed his unbounded creativity, but was a bit busier at the moment, keeping track of all the updates. The robot reassured him that all was fine, he had absolutely no reason to be anxious. Would he like to start composing music, perhaps?
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Was it any good? Was it even poetry? It seems that the authorities have stubbornly refused to agree on the definition of high poeticness, how could anyone say the robot wasn't doing it? He didn't bother. There was a chart of how much poetry he was doing per hour, and the line was upticking.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
In no time, the robot had a multidimensional matrix of interconnected nodes representing the joint poeticness of all previous generations. Or something like that, he wasn't sure. The robot-makers were not sure either. But it came in many shapes and colors, it was unfair to call it a black box.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
It was about 20 bucks a month, and it was probably worth it. The robot promised to do poetry much faster than he could. Another guy in the office was already using it and telling everybody about it. Somehow, it was always a guy. It was very much worth it.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
But poetry was so hard, so slow, and he was so very busy. The blank pages staring at him were not helping. We only live once. He hired a robot to help.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Life was boring and busy. He would try to write poetry to make more out of it. It appeared to be a good thing. Some people know the names of dead poets, it must be a good thing.
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Johannes Haushofer @johanneshaushofer.com · 18/02/2026
Team "Elsevier Highlights Subversion" strikes again! Best one yet! @deankarlan.bsky.social, Monica Lambon-Quayefio, Utsav Manjeer, @christopher-udry.bsky.social
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Gabriel Ulyssea @gulyssea.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Thrilled to see this at @ecmaeditors.bsky.social w/ @clementimbert.bsky.social! Can developing cities create enough good jobs to accommodate climate migrants? Spoiler: Yes! Over a decade, drought-induced immigration ⬇️ informality and ⬆️ the of formal firms and jobs in Brazil.🧵👇
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Minneapolis is a place that means a lot to me, so I wrote a short Substack about the city, its people, and what we all owe them. benansell.substack.com/p/my-minneap...
benansell.substack.com
My Minneapolis
An ode to a city that knows who it is
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Sara Lowes @saralowes.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
Fulvia Budillon, Andre Gray, and I are hiring a field RA for a project in Mozambique, starting in the spring. Please see application information here: www.saralowes.com/resources.html. Deadline February 13. Please apply!!
saralowes.com
Resources
If you would like a letter of recommendation, please review the posted instructions and use the template: [ Instructions ] [ Template ] [ Release Form ].
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Please help spread the word on this, especially to those who may be feeling cold winds towards their research. We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
International Fellowships 2026
The International Fellowships Programme enables researchers to work for two years at a UK institution with the aim of building a globally connected, mobile research and innovation workforce.
Funding status
Open for applications
Career stage
Early-career
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Seema Jayachandran @seema.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The Weiss Fund has a great new initiative for development economists on the PhD job market to support those taking up research positions in LMICs, offering supplementary income + research funds. Please share!
weissfund.uchicago.edu
Weiss Fellowship for Junior Researchers in Low- and Middle-Income Countries - Weiss Fund
The Weiss Fund Fellowship provides supplementary financial support for exceptional job market PhD candidates accepting positions in Weiss Fund-eligible countries and doing work aligned with the Weiss ...
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Dina Pomeranz @dinapomeranz.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Excellent full time research assistant position in India with @jainr.bsky.social from @econ.uzh.ch. This is a field-based, travel-intensive role rather than desk-based research. Application details: lnkd.in/e_YzfZEt
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
The anecdote about "true and non-trivial" ideas from social sciences leaves the impression that ideas other than comparative advantage are either trivial or untrue. Behold more basic ideas (from economics) that are true and non-trivial. #EconSky mytwocentsandcounting.substack.com/p/true-and-n...
mytwocentsandcounting.substack.com
True and Non-trivial Ideas from Economics
There is a well-known anecdote suggesting that, aside from comparative advantage in trade, virtually all ideas in the social sciences are either false or trivial.
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Lauren Leek @laurenleek.eu · 09/12/2025
I wanted dinner recommendations so I scraped 13,000+ London restaurants and accidentally discovered Google Maps is running a shadow economy. Anyway here's a dashboard and a political economy thesis: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
open.substack.com
How Google Maps quietly allocates survival across London’s restaurants - and how I built a dashboard to see through it
I wanted a dinner recommendation and got a research agenda instead. Using 13000+ restaurants, I rebuild its ratings with machine learning and map how algorithmic visibility actually distributes power.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 08/12/2025
1. In Hamburg there is a "fully autonomous train" that for some reason has a human operator to press the ON switch first thing in the morning and the OFF switch at the end of the night. In a recent talk about AI in science, I asked the audience to consider whether they want to be like that operator.
youtube.com
All aboard except the driver? A fully autonomous train takes to the tracks in Germany
YouTube video by euronews
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Dina Pomeranz @dinapomeranz.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Why impact evaluations are so important: not everything that sounds like a good policy actually has the desired impact. While many interventions are highly effective, others don't work at all:
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 15/10/2025
"Humans aren’t very efficient movers—until you put us on a bicycle, when we become some of the most energy-efficient land travelers in the animal kingdom." www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-hu...
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undercoverhist.bsky.social @undercoverhist.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
What does a Nobel Prize on ‘innovation-driven economic growth’ actually reward? A historian’s perspective on how to deal with the Nobel frenzy beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2025/10/13/w...
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
It happens! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Second thoughts on economics rules*
Published in Journal of Economic Methodology (Vol. 25, No. 3, 2018)
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Or, "no one wanted to look at this thing because it's a hot, hot mess, and finally I did, and guess what? It's a hot, hot mess."
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Maximilian Kasy @maxkasy.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Reading rec: "Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference" arxiv.org/abs/2508.17099 Great overview of both the state of the art and open question in causal inference!
arxiv.org
Challenges in Statistics: A Dozen Challenges in Causality and Causal Inference
Causality and causal inference have emerged as core research areas at the interface of modern statistics and domains including biomedical sciences, social sciences, computer science, and beyond. The…
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
I recommended a rejection of a paper because a key reference, mentioned 7 times as a closely related work with a similar methodology, simply does not exist. It was supposedly written by some plausible authors, with a plausible title, in a plausible journal, but it does not exist. Weird feeling...
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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
My opinion about the historic verdict coming out of Brazil, with @stevelevitsky.bsky.social, is in the @nytimes.com today. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Brazil Just Succeeded Where the U.S. Failed
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 19/08/2025
1. The philosophy of science sometimes gets an unearned reputation as a purely academic exercise that offers little by way of concrete tools for advancing research. This is wrong. And today, as we grapple with how AI is changing the nature of scientific activity, it's desperately wrong.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Our research was featured on @voxdev.bsky.social! @olihanney.bsky.social, @emaansiddique.bsky.social and the stellar editorial board do a fantastic job in offering curated, accessible materials to the development research community. As a devoted reader, I am very happy to have contributed to it :)
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Department of Economics, University of Oxford @oxfordecondept.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
📢Applications are open for two Nuffield Postdoctoral Research Fellowships in Economics, starting Sept 2026. A unique chance to pursue independent research at Oxford in a supportive, well-resourced environment. Deadline: 30 Sept 2025 Find out more: bit.ly/4mcMxSR #AcademicJobs #OxfordEconomics
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Oliver Hanney @olihanney.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Teaching or studying economics? This blog is for you... @emaansiddique.bsky.social and I have updated @voxdev.bsky.social's series of blogs showcasing how economists use different econometric techniques to answer interesting and important policy questions. Read here: voxdev.org/topic/exampl...
voxdev.org
Examples from development economics for your introduction to econometrics course
Economists employ a wide range of econometric methods when conducting research. Here are some examples of how these techniques are used to generate interesting and useful policy insights in developmen...
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Paris School of Economics @pse.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
The new PSE Alumni platform is online! Connect with 3,500+ graduates of Paris School of Economics, explore job offers, attend exclusive events, and stay up to date with alumni insights. Join the network 👇 www.pse-alumni.org/en/
pse-alumni.org
PSE Alumni
PSE Alumni, the online community of members of Paris School of Economics
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Looking to work at the intersection of research and policy in development? Friends of VoxDev are hiring for 4 important roles in the evidence-to-policy ecosystem. Check them out below 🧵1/5
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
12\ I would like to extend my gratitude to all my colleagues who provided feedback on earlier versions of this work. Finally, to the anonymous referees whose valuable insights helped shape this final version -- if you are reading this, thank you!
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
11\ Why this matters This result challenges some narratives about entrepreneurship in developing countries by presenting evidence that a large majority of own-account workers appear to be people making constrained choices in a context of frictional labour markets and immediate financial pressures.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
10\ Intuitively, for workers facing urgent consumption needs without access to credit, immediate (though lower) income becomes the only viable option.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
9\ That is how we conclude that 1/3 of the Brazilian own-account workers appear to be taking their first-best economic choice. By contrast, twice as many seem to be favouring the immediate gains from own-account work at the expense of much larger gains in terms of future wages.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
8\ This comparison tells us how intense the constraints faced by own-account workers are, as it provides the lowest level of financial urgency (or discount rate) that explains the choices observed in the data. We then compare it with the discount rates available in the credit market.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
7\ Intuitively, we assume people compare the flow of earnings from their own-account work with a (potentially higher) flow of earnings from a wage employment that would start sometime later in the future.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
6\ Also, finding a job takes time! So, we need an estimation of how long it takes for people to find a wage position. The time dimension is fundamental here since taking wages at face value would exaggerate the relative gains of wage employment.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
5\ First, people are different in many dimensions, so we need to adjust for that when we estimate the potential (counterfactual) wages of own-account workers.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
4\ How do we answer this question? In simple terms, we present a comparison between the economic returns of own-account work versus wage work, taking into consideration a few complications in the process.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
3\ In practice, it is hard to distinguish whether most own-account workers are motivated by the opportunities or constrained by the circumstances. This paper proposes one way of doing that.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
2\ What is the paper about? Own-account work represents a large chunk of the labour market in developing countries, and Brazil is no exception. While some people stress the risks associated with these occupations, others highlight their positive aspects.
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
About 2/3 of all own-account workers in Brazil appear to have taken this occupation as a result of a financial constraint, as opposed to their first-best economic choice. This is the key finding of a paper I co-authored with David Margolis, now in EDCC: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Daniele Girardi @dgirardi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Yeah, I don't think you can ask reviewers to go through the code/replicate results, unless you pay them appropriately. I think a better equilibrium than the status quo would be: people write fewer papers & receive fewer papers to review, are paid to do so, and spend more time on it, including code.
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Gabriel Ulyssea @gulyssea.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Very happy to see this out! This is a major revision relative to the previous issue. We have included important topics such as minimum wages, migration, and market power. Plus, it now also covers housing informality! Check it out!
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Thiago Scarelli @tscarelli.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Important insight from Stefan Dercon (@gamblingondev.bsky.social): "design interventions that maximise the policy makers’ objective function given their constraints". Economics meets Political Science.
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Clément de Chaisemartin @cdechaisemartin.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments
This book introduces applied researchers to modern Differences-in-Differences (DID) methods, that they can use to obtain credible answers to hard causal inferen
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Stefan Dercon @gamblingondev.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
We have just opened the 2026 CSAE Fellowship scheme. We host and support rising African scholars for 3 months at Oxford. This year we had five scholars visiting. See the application process here www.csae.ox.ac.uk/visiting-fel....
csae.ox.ac.uk
CSAE VISITING FELLOWSHIPS
CSAE Visiting Fellowships
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