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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

How should police activity be deployed? We propose a model of criminal learning and estimate its parameters using RCT data from an anti-drunk-driving campaign in India. We find clear evidence of learning, making “rotating” checkpoints most effective www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

How should long-term employment contracts be regulated? We show that optimal regulation prices the use of non-competes, tying stronger non-competes to higher wages. This limits inefficient worker lock-in and raises pay at better matches. buff.ly/PD964cP

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Academic research fuels applied innovation, but its commercial impact varies by location. Tracking researchers who move between universities, the study finds that place-specific factors account for 15–25% of geographic variation in commercial spillovers. buff.ly/aYENtuz

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

How do you get word of a new technology around a village? Asking randomly chosen farmers (not necessarily well-connected) to plant a new seed beside a familiar one reaches as many people as targeting central farmers. Demonstrations help word get around! buff.ly/w43xOpp

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Burdett–Mortensen meets oligopsony — a general-equilibrium model of the labor market, with a finite number of large employers who post wages and compete for workers along the job ladder, solved in closed form. With an application to a US noncompete ban. buff.ly/eupuvUY

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Why do many businesses in poor countries look overstaffed? Experiments in Uganda show employers and workers prefer redistribution via work to cash even for no-value tasks. Workfare-like incentives, reciprocity, and dignity shape firm size and productivity. buff.ly/AXDnHcj

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Econometrica Volume 94, Issue 5 (September 2026) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

We develop and calibrate a dynamic equilibrium model of the interbank market to estimate aggregate reserve demand and provide central banks with structural diagnostics for policy implementation, target-rate control, and banks’ heterogeneous funding costs. buff.ly/QkKgBLK

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Why are the wealthiest so wealthy? 27-year panel: top 0.1% wealth gap reflects higher saving (36%), inheritances (31%), returns (28%). Calibrated to cross-sections alone, models miss "New Money" or "Old Money"; our dynamic facts pin down the mechanism. buff.ly/1Z1N36N

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

When Jeff Bezos's Amazon stock doubles, should his tax bill? No, say Mark Aguiar, @benmoll.bsky.social and @florianscheuer.bsky.social: optimal taxes target realized net trades plus cash flows—not wealth or unrealized gains—while avoiding lock-in, whatever moves asset prices. buff.ly/vHUzTWr

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Reanalyzing Suri (2011), we find instability in the parameter governing who benefits most from technology adoption, suggesting weak identification. We propose a group random coefficient approach to diagnose it & build robust CIs @econemilia.bsky.social @dghanem.bsky.social buff.ly/VzP1LwC

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Can ML generate theoretical insight, not just predictions? Our procedures turn predictive models into anomaly generators, producing minimal cases existing theory can't explain. We apply it to revisit choice under risk. @sendhil.bsky.social @asheshrambachan.bsky.social buff.ly/F0ouzAV

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

We propose an algorithm for building efficient recentered IVs. While simulated IVs for Medicaid eligibility discard individual variation as non-random, our recentered IVs preserve it and deliver much more precise estimates. @instrumenthull.bsky.social, @borusyak.bsky.social buff.ly/H1JYjlX

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Repeated games meet coalition stability. @snageebali.bsky.social and @CeLiuEcon characterize the power and limits of self-enforcing promises in deterring coalitions. They apply the framework to study the implications of wage transparency in labor markets. buff.ly/yYigzBG

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

95% of Amazon shoppers consider only the prominent "Buybox" offer—and Amazon's own offers are featured as often as similar offers priced 5% cheaper. Yet, as consumers prefer these offers, this article finds that the skew roughly maximizes consumer surplus. buff.ly/19zhXv1

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

How flexible are firms' input mixes in the long run? Using India's 1990s trade reforms, we estimate high substitutability across materials (elasticity ~2.5) and show input distortions cut output 3.5x more than prior work suggests. @Ale_M_Peter @cian_ruane buff.ly/fUpjXFr

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Discrimination can persist as organizational trap: tackling it requires shifting beliefs across the hierarchy by trialing minority candidates. This is costly, so bias survives in firms, and standard tests fail as coworker bias depresses their performance. buff.ly/H5ruJPO

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Can researchers estimate treatment effects precisely when covariates have measurement error or privacy-preserving noise? We show that repetitive (low-rank) covariates enable causal inference with the same precision as if the true covariates were observed. buff.ly/QcHd11D

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

What happens to insurance markets as genetic prediction improves? This article combines quantitative genetics, economic theory, and big data to study adverse selection and inform policy. Selection may become severe in critical illness insurance. buff.ly/Xf9ybyS

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Buyers may differ not in value, but in purchase frequency. This changes dynamic screening: commitment extracts all surplus; without commitment, learning mitigates ratcheting and can make sellers screen after pooling. buff.ly/9z9y2db

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

When doctors lose control over the end users of their services — as with secondary markets for prescription drugs — most become more cautious. This can be helpful when overprescribing is rampant, but resale to misusers still causes harm. buff.ly/SnoMuMq

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Random Priority—a popular no-transfer allocation mechanism—is efficient, fair, & simple to participate in. Is it the only mechanism with these properties? Marek Pycia @econ.uzh.ch and Peter Troyan, UVA Economics, answer this long-standing question in the positive. buff.ly/zlSjmC0

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

A structural model of applicant-examiner negotiation finds U.S. patent screening moderately effective, with social costs of $15.4bn/year. Examiner intrinsic motivation sharply improves screening quality, and capping negotiation rounds reduces social costs. @willmatcham.bsky.social buff.ly/W3Qciiu

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Econometrica Volume 94, Issue 4 (July 2026) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Are you also torn between small sample performance and robustness to heteroskedasticity? You can have both! One can produce an exact test for subvectors that is asymptotically robust to heteroskedasticity. @guillaumeecon.bsky.social buff.ly/gIsdPs7

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

What securities emerge when competing investors design financing contracts? With dispersed information about common values, debt best protects investors from the winner’s curse and sellers’ informed selection—unlike in monopoly or private-value settings. buff.ly/g6q6D9Y

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

On July 1, Econometrica welcomed new AEs to its editorial board: Laurent Bouton (Georgetown), Alex Frankel (UChicago), Annie Liang (Northwestern), Zhipeng Liao (UCLA), Luciano Pomatto (Caltech), Todd Schoellman (Minneapolis Fed), Isaac Sorkin (Stanford), and Thomas Wollmann (BU).

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Why do workers dislike inflation? Because wages catching up to prices means costly conflict: tough pay talks, job search, bargaining. Survey + model show conflict more than doubles inflation costs. Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Chen Lian & Christina Patterson. buff.ly/S1GJdlV

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

When treatment locations are as-good-as-random, how do we estimate causal effects on nearby observations? Use counterfactual locations, known ex-ante or predicted via neural nets, and quantify uncertainty based on the quasi-experimental design. buff.ly/BFRhcFW

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Gravity models usually make distance a shipping cost. What if distance also makes encounters between buyers and suppliers less likely? A new firm-to-firm matching model fits granular customs data and helps resolve trade and labor-market puzzles. buff.ly/XURqW3P

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

When are causal parameters identified in instrumental variables models? This paper shows many such models share a common necessary and sufficient condition for identification that is constructive and suggests a simple sample-analogue estimator. buff.ly/4uw9gj0

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

People underreact when inferring states, yet overreact when forecasting from the same signals. Fan, Liang & Peng show the question type triggers different heuristics—similarity between available and elicited statistics determines which shortcut dominates. buff.ly/ampbeNm

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Why do richer economies have more very large firms? This paper shows that the upper tail of the firm size distribution thickens as economies grow. A model of idea search explains why, showing how growth itself can produce rising concentration. buff.ly/cpStCuc

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Econometrica Volume 94, Issue 3 (May 2026) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Local projections are surprisingly robust to misspecification. By contrast, VAR confidence intervals with short-to-moderate lag length can severely undercover for misspecification that is small, difficult to detect, and cannot be ruled out a priori. buff.ly/c2obho2

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

When a Bayesian parametric model can be embedded in an encompassing semiparametric framework, likelihood augmentation via efficient scores delivers robustness to local misspecification and semiparametrically efficient inference. buff.ly/lEoRpmD

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

How do anti-misinformation policies work? RCT & structural estimation on Twitter/𝕏 in the US: priming outperforms fact-checking by raising salience of reputation at low cost, curbing false news & preserving true news. Veracity updating matters less. buff.ly/Nr9JbFO

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

A job ladder model with incomplete markets links wealth to job search over the life cycle. It provides a new microfoundation for all three inputs in F(K, AL) and offers novel insights into how redistributive policies affect aggregate output and welfare. @leokaas.bsky.social buff.ly/IqpiGoa

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Econometrica is pleased to announce the 2026 Haavelmo Prize for the best econometrics paper, awarded to Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson for “Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression.” www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...

econometricsociety.org

Announcing the Winners of the 2026 Econometrica Prizes - The Econometric Society

I am pleased to announce the winners of the 2026 Econometrica prizes. The 2026 Arrow Prize for the best theory paper published in Econometrica in the preceding...

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Econometrica is pleased to announce the 2026 Frisch Medal for the best applied paper, awarded to Adrien Bilal, Niklas Engbom, Simon Mongey, and Giovanni L. Violante for “Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market.” www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...

econometricsociety.org

Announcing the Winners of the 2026 Econometrica Prizes - The Econometric Society

I am pleased to announce the winners of the 2026 Econometrica prizes. The 2026 Arrow Prize for the best theory paper published in Econometrica in the preceding...

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Econometrica is pleased to announce the 2026 Arrow Prize for the best economic theory paper, awarded to Weijie Zhong for “Optimal Dynamic Information Acquisition.” www.econometricsociety.org/society/news...

econometricsociety.org

Announcing the Winners of the 2026 Econometrica Prizes - The Econometric Society

I am pleased to announce the winners of the 2026 Econometrica prizes. The 2026 Arrow Prize for the best theory paper published in Econometrica in the preceding...

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

After Citizens United, Super PAC spending surged. I estimate a multistage model of U.S. congressional elections and find that offsetting spending responses limit net equilibrium effects. Still, amplified donor influence can reshape the electoral landscape. buff.ly/MJ48u5H

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Econometrica Volume 94, Issue 2 (March 2026) is now online www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

econometricsociety.org

Econometrica

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

How does agricultural policy shape climate damages? @allanhsiao.bsky.social, Jacob Moscona, and Karthik Sastry show that governments move to protect consumers when extreme heat causes food shortages, redistributing damages within and across countries. buff.ly/QqnRwi0

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

What happens when workers with specific skills change fields? This paper shows that many workers with apprenticeships work outside their training occupation and face sizable mismatch penalties. Retraining can help mitigate costs under imperfect information.https://buff.ly/WvOTnDU

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Argmax is subtle. When is its cdf continuous? New paper gives conditions for multivariate argmax over Gaussian processes based on the Cameron-Martin theorem. Useful for inference in maximum score, empirical risk minimization & threshold regression examples. buff.ly/E6Y96gu

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Communicating uncertainty about our conclusions is an important scientific task. Is reporting a point estimate and standard error good enough? We propose a practical recipe for checking whether it is, and for improving our report when it is not. buff.ly/1RmUW1F

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Spatial models calibrated to observed flows suffer overfitting problems in granular settings. @tradediversion.bsky.social & Felix Tintelnot diagnose the problem, show data smoothing performs better, and introduce a finite model to quantify counterfactual uncertainty. buff.ly/rJ8EE0J

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Can cities in developing countries create enough good jobs for climate migrants? @gulyssea.bsky.social and @clementimbert.bsky.social show that, over a decade, drought-induced immigration decreases informality and increases the number of formal firms and jobs in Brazil. buff.ly/d3h4E6p

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Econometrica @ecmaeditors.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

One of the strengths of the Generalized Method of Moments is its ability to test model validity using overidentification tests. But what if the test fails? This paper provides a way to interpret misspecified models through the lens of optimal transport. buff.ly/uUSROOr

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