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Zach Parolin

@zparolin.bsky.social
2.7K followers 353 following 81 posts

Professor of Social Policy, Inequality, and Opportunity at University of Oxford. Director, Inequality Programme at INET Oxford. Professorial Fellow at Nuffield College.

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Reposted by Zach Parolin
morellisal.bsky.social @morellisal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Are inequality researchers too concerned with the ultra-rich? Proud to take part in the Atkinson Conference at Nuffield College (Oxford). On Sep 10, I’ll discuss with Mike Brewer moderated by Juliana de Castro Galvao. Info: atkinsonconference.github.io
atkinsonconference.github.io
The Atkinson Conference on Economic and Social Inequality
A two-day interdisciplinary conference on economic and social inequality at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. 10–11 September 2026.
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Just under 2 weeks til the closing date for the Assoc Prof in Law, Politics and Computational Social Science at Nuffield College and the University of Oxford. This is an amazing opportunity to be part of the Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods. Join us! www.politics.ox.ac.uk/opportunity/...
politics.ox.ac.uk
Associate Professorship of Law, Politics and Computational Social Science (APNTF)
In association with Nuffield CollegePermanent upon completion of a successful review. The review isconducted during the first 5 years.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) and LIS Data Center are hiring a 3-year postdoc for work on public policy, welfare and socio-economic inequality. Open to economics, sociology, pol sci and related disciplines. Apply by Sep 15th: jobs.liser.lu/job/Esch-sur...
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Pat Hastings @ophastings.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
How well can we predict which children will end up poor adults or rich adults? Or how much education they'll earn? In a new working paper, @zparolin.bsky.social and I show the predictability of life outcomes depends on the country and outcome. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications... Highlights below! 🧵👇
Title: Rags or Riches? Predicting Life Outcomes from the Birth Lottery Across Five High-Income Countries

Authors: Orestes P. Hastings and Zach Parolin

Abstract: The stratification of life outcomes is a central concern of sociology, but to what extent can adult outcomes be predicted from childhood circumstances? Although decades of research have identified important family and socioeconomic factors associated with mobility and attainment, these models explain only a modest share of individual variation in outcomes. Using harmonized longitudinal data from the Cross-National Equivalent Files (CNEF) and an ensemble of machine-learning models, we estimate the predictability of adult outcomes in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and South Korea. Predictability varies substantially across outcomes and national contexts: educational attainment is more predictable than economic outcomes, poverty is far more predictable in the U.S., and income mobility is substantially less predictable than overall attainment outcomes. Additional U.S. analyses show that adding race, wealth, parental incarceration, and other variables improves predictions only slightly. We further show that predictability captures a distinct dimension of stratification not fully captured in other traditional measures of mobility, inequality, and opportunity. Together, these findings provide new insights into where and how the birth lottery most strongly shapes life chances.
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Lauren Bauer @laurenhlb.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
New analysis from me & Diane Schanzenbach, possibly my favorite piece ever: We study the SNAP payment error rate and explain why tying how much a state will have to contribute toward SNAP payments to its PER is inherently empirically unstable. Remand. www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...
A policy that could cause states to drop out of the SNAP program due to chance should not be left to chance. SNAP should be fully federally funded.Figure 3 shows confidence intervals around the point estimates for a states SNAP payment error rate in FY2023. The confidence intervals are larger than the bins.
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Rense Nieuwenhuis @rnieuwenhuis.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
No child poverty in Sweden? Think again! We found big differences in poverty rates, poverty gaps and poverty buffers between children of Swedish-born and foreign-born parents. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... With @siddarthaaradhya.bsky.social and @rafgrotti.bsky.social
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Very very upset at the University of Cambridge higher ups. I don’t think their remaining in situ given this week - in court and with Arday - is remotely tenable.
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Ewa Batyra @ewabatyra.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Job alert! 📣 I’m recruiting a 3-year postdoc for my ERC Stg project DIVREP, which examines within-country variation in reproductive behaviour and its determinants across the globe. 🗓️ Deadline: 16 September 2026 www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/events/postd... Please share and apply!
sociology.ox.ac.uk
Postdoctoral Research Associate in Demography
Closing Date: 12.00pm Wednesday 16th September 2026
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Pat Hastings @ophastings.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Feeling deprived of academic talks over the summer? This Thursday I'm presenting new work with @zparolin.bsky.social for the Oxford Metrics & Models seminar. Online talk and all are welcome! 2pm Oxford time, 7am Colorado time. Happy to share the MS Teams link with you. metrics-and-models.github.io
Talk Title: Rags or Riches? Predicting Life Outcomes from the Birth Lottery Across Five High-Income Countries

Abstract: Stratification in life outcomes is a central concern of sociology, but to what extent can adult outcomes be predicted from childhood circumstances? Although decades of research have identified important family and socioeconomic factors associated with mobility and attainment, these models explain only a modest share of individual variation in outcomes. Using harmonized longitudinal data from the Cross-National Equivalent Files (CNEF) and an ensemble of machine-learning models applied to a common set of childhood characteristics, we estimate the predictability of adult outcomes in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and South Korea. Predictability varies substantially across outcomes and national contexts: educational attainment is the most predictable in general, poverty is far more predictable in the U.S. than other countries, and income mobility is substantially less predictable than overall attainment outcomes. In additional analyses with the U.S., adding more variables including race, wealth, and parental incarceration improves predictions only slightly. We further show that predictability captures a distinct dimension of stratification that is not fully captured in other traditional measures of mobility, inequality, and opportunity. Together, these findings provide new insights into where and how the birth lottery most strongly shapes life chances.

Bio: Pat Hastings is an Associate Professor of Sociology at Colorado State University. He studies parenting, childhood, inequality, and social mobility with quantitative and computational methods.
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Lukas Lehner @lukaslehner.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
#Walmart #Supercenter openings are associated with a 2.2 percentage point (18%) rise in #poverty, and the increase persists for at least a decade. Our article is now published in #LabourEconomics, with @zparolin.bsky.social, Clemente Pignatti & Rafael Pintro-Schmitt.
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Nuffield College Library @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Power and poverty: The distributional consequences of Walmart Supercenter openings doi.org/10.1016/j.la... Paper in Labour Economics by Lukas Lehner, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @zparolin.bsky.social, Clemente Pignatti and Rafael Pintro Schmitt
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
With @joshuachoper.bsky.social & @lukaslehner.bsky.social in the American Sociological Review, we ask: What happens to organized labor when Walmart Supercenters enter a local labor market? Broadly, how do worker power and buyer power interact to shape inequality? journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
TODAY! ▶️"The EU Anti-Poverty Strategy: A Discussion with the European Commission and an Expert Panel." 2pm UK / 3pm CEST via Zoom as part of the INET Oxford Inequality Working Group. Join us to to discuss the Commission's new strategy to reduce poverty in the EU. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-e...
inet.ox.ac.uk
The EU Anti-Poverty Strategy: A Discussion with the European…
Afterward, two experts in European social policy – Bea Cantillon and Amílcar Moreira – will join Vila Nuñez for a discussion of the strategy. He…
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Selçuk Bedük @sbeduk.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Last week to apply! It's shaping up to be an exciting event on inequality, bringing together perspectives across disciplines and beyond academia. Researchers, policy experts, civil servants and others working on inequality are all welcome.
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
The Atkinson Conference on Economic and Social Inequality will take place on 10-11 September at Nuffield College (Oxford). ▶️Plenaries: Philippe Aghion, Janet Gornick & roundable moderated by FT's Sarah O'Connor. 🚩CfP Deadline: 22 May. Join us in Oxford! Details here: atkinsonconference.github.io
atkinsonconference.github.io
The Atkinson Conference on Economic and Social Inequality
A two-day interdisciplinary conference on economic and social inequality at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. 10–11 September 2026.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
A postdoc position is now available in my project Markets and Mobility: How Employers Structure Economic Opportunity. Start date flexible within the next 12 months, apply by 9 May. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
ucl.ac.uk
UCL – University College London
UCL is consistently ranked as one of the top ten universities in the world (QS World University Rankings 2010-2022) and is No.2 in the UK for research power (Research Excellence Framework 2021).
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
📣 New job at Oxford's Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM)! 📣 The Departments of Politics & IR (DPIR) and Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) are hiring an Associate Professor of Causal and Experimental Methods. Come work with me and amazing Oxford peeps! Deadline NOON April 27th.
politics.ox.ac.uk
Associate Professorship of Causal and Experimental Methods in Politics and Social Policy
University salary from £58,265 - £77,645 per annum which is inclusive of an Oxford University Weighting of £1,730 p.aPermanent upon completion of a successful review. The review is conducted during th...
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Lukas Lehner @lukaslehner.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Join us today online for Alexandra Roulet's talk on "Making Labor Markets Work for Workers and Businesses", hosted by @zparolin.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social @oxmartinschool.bsky.social. I'll be moderating the event and look forward to a vibrant discussion. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/makin...
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Dirk Witteveen @dirkwitteveen.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
📢 In this Social Forces article, I introduce occupational elitism as a novel measure of social closure: the share of upper-class background workers within an occupation. Its consequences for earnings stratification can be examined using a social closure theory lens. 🔓 doi.org/10.1093/sf/s...
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
On Feb 17, our @inetoxford.bsky.social team will launch the INET Oxford Inequality Working Group, an online seminar series that invites discussion on inequality and public policy. Our first speaker: @drodrik.bsky.social presents his new book. Details & registration: www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/share...
inet.ox.ac.uk
Shared Prosperity in a Fractured World
Dani Rodrik of Harvard University will present his new book, "Shared Prosperity in a Fractured World: A New Economics for the Middle Class, the Global…
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Pepper Culpepper @pculpepper.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Billionaire Backlash is published today! (If you are in the US, this is a teaser -- out March 17 there). I had a fantastic conversation about the book with @hugorifkind.bsky.social from Times Radio yesterday. Link below (interview starts at about 50:30). Or join us for the launch in Oxford tonight.
thetimes.com
Hugo Rifkind | Times Radio | The Times and the Sunday Times
Listen to Times Radio live for the latest breaking news, expert analysis and well-informed discussion covering the biggest stories of the day.
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Joshua Choper @joshuachoper.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
My new article, now online @sfjournal.bsky.social, examines trends in Black-White inequality by gender in earnings losses among displaced workers. Lost earnings premia, disadvantageous re-sorting, and statistical discrimination play distinct roles in shaping inequality. doi.org/10.1093/sf/s...
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
I'm hiring a post-doctoral researcher to join us at the University of Oxford and our @inetoxford.bsky.social Inequality team. Ideal candidate has experience in the fields of inequality, social mobility, and/or public policy. We can sponsor visas for non-UK applicants. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/vacancies
inet.ox.ac.uk
Vacancies
Jobs and Vacancies at INET Oxford, The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
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davidbroska.bsky.social @davidbroska.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
First day of my research visit at Oxford! Many thanks to @zparolin.bsky.social for the generous invitation. I’ll be presenting on simulating human behavior with LLMs on Jan 28 at the @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Sociology Seminar. If you’ll be around Oxford, feel free to reach out!
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Julian Garritzmann @garritzmannj.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
we have 5 positions open at @goetheuni.bsky.social in Frankfurt - a 4,5 year postdoc in my @erc.europa.eu project on the educational cleavage - 2 postdoc & 2 PhD positions, 4 years, in a research group on Reconfiguration & Internalization of Social Structure www.uni-frankfurt.de/48794784/FB0...
uni-frankfurt.de
Goethe-Universität — FB03 - Gesellschaftswissenschaften
Die Goethe-Universität ist eine forschungsstarke Hochschule in der europäischen Finanzmetropole Frankfurt. Lebendig, urban und weltoffen besitzt sie als Stiftungsuniversität ein einzigartiges Maß an E...
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Sociology at Oxford @sociologyoxford.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
🚨 JOB ALERT! 🚨 We're hiring an Associate Professor in Sociology in association with @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social! We welcome applicants with a wide range of empirical specialisations and regional focuses 🌍 Apply now ➡️ my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
We're hiring: Associate Professorship in Sociology. Deadline: 5 January 2026
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Ariane Ophir @arianeophir.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
🚨 #Hiring! 3yr #postdoc w/survey methodology experience to join the ERC-project SINGLE for its next stage of designing & launching a comparative multidisciplinary singlehood #survey in EU. Research area is open! Application deadline: 12-Jan-2026 (12PM CET). Barcelona-based. 👉🏻 shorturl.at/CmY0F
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
If you’ll be at APPAM, consider joining for the Kershaw Award Lecture on Thurs at 3:30pm. I’ll discuss new research on the intergenerational persistence of poverty: How does it compare to other measures of mobility? How it has evolved in the US? Which policies are effective in reducing it? & more.
Kershaw Award Lecture on Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty at 3:30pm on Thursday
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Kristian Bernt Karlson @kbkarlson.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
LAST CALL! #Sociology Professorships in Copenhagen, Denmark! We're hiring 2+ open-rank profs (Asst/Assoc/Full). Any area. Deadline: this Saturday, Nov 15! Join a leading European sociology department. Please repost! jobportal.ku.dk/videnskabeli...
jobportal.ku.dk
Call for two or more open-rank academic positions in Sociology
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LSE Inequalities @lseinequalities.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
📣 Vacancy alert: We are seeking to recruit a Research Officer (post-doctoral researcher) for a 24-month period to conduct original research on topics related to inequality, intergenerational mobility, and inequality of opportunity. Apply by 20 November ⬇️ buff.ly/M23KHL9
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Maria Vaalavuo @mariavaalavuo.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
🚨 Another interesting post doc opportunity at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), register-based analysis of child protection services, deadline for application 21 Oct.: valtiolle.fi/en/jobs/seni... #postdoc
valtiolle.fi
Senior Researcher (Postdoctoral Researcher, Child Protection) - National Institute for Health and Welfare
Open job: Senior Researcher (Postdoctoral Researcher, Child Protection), National Institute for Health and Welfare - Find all jobs in Valtiolle.fi
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Join us at INET Oxford (@inetoxford.bsky.social)! I'm hiring one post-doctoral researcher and three research assistants in the field of inequality, social policy, and social mobility to join our research team. Deadline: October 24. Read more and apply: www.inet.ox.ac.uk/vacancies
inet.ox.ac.uk
Vacancies
Jobs and Vacancies at INET Oxford, The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
I'm truly honored to receive this year's Kershaw Award. I came into the policy research world almost by accident after a failed stint in the Australian Baseball League. To have my work recognized like this is a testament to the wonderful mentors and colleagues I've learned from these past 10 years.
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
New WP: We study how minimum wage increases affect poverty and food hardship in the U.S from 1981-2019. Different from recent work, we study the Supplemental Poverty Measure + two measures of food hardship, factor in cost-of-living differences, and more. www.iza.org/publications...
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Institute for Research on Poverty @irpwisc.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
📖 📻 New IRP Book Talk is now available in your podcast feed: Jane Waldfogel on Child Benefits: A Smart Investment for America’s Future. She shares research on child benefits around the world and makes a case for implementing a similar program in the US. Listen now: www.irp.wisc.edu/resource/irp...
irp.wisc.edu
IRP Book Talk: Jane Waldfogel on Child Benefits: A Smart Investment for America’s Future
Research | Training | Policy | Practice
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Tom VanHeuvelen @tvanheuvelen.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
Unionized careers boost up wealth. Very interesting article by Purdue's Alec Rhodes: academic.oup.com/sf/advance-a....
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Courtney Boen @courtneyboen.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
🚨 Job! 🚨 Brown Sociology & the Watson School of International & Public Affairs are hiring a TT assistant professor whose research focuses on social policy (broadly conceived). Apply by 9/15: apply.interfolio.com/172655 Happy to chat about life at Brown, etc!
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Rense Corten 🟥 @rensec.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
WORK! The Sociology Department at Utrecht University is hiring a new assistant prof, with expertise on migration/integration/polarization/stratification. Come join us! www.uu.nl/organisatie/...
uu.nl
Universitair docent sociologie
Wil jij studenten inspireren en vernieuwend onderwijs geven? Versterk ons team als universitair docent met expertise in migratie en/of sociale stratificatie.
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Christiaan Monden @cmonden.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Job alert! Join us at @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social as a postdoctoral fellow to work on your own research for three years. #sociology
nuffield.ox.ac.uk
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Bocconi University in Milan is hiring in sociology at any level (open rank). Ideal candidate might focus on inequality, social policy, computational, labor markets, or similar. Happy to answer questions about my time there for anyone considering applying. More details: jobmarket.unibocconi.eu
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UW-Madison Sociology @uwsoc.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
We're hiring! Please share with your networks! The Department of Sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison invites applications for a tenure-track position at the rank of assistant professor in the field of demography of health and aging beginning in August 2026 jobs.wisc.edu/jobs/assista...
jobs.wisc.edu
Assistant Professor - Madison, Wisconsin, United States
Current Employees: If you are currently employed at any of the Universities of Wisconsin, log in to Workday to apply through the internal application process.Job Category:FacultyEmployment Type:Regula...
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Christiaan Monden @cmonden.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Ready to make plans for the academic year 2026/27? Why not visit us: www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/our-research...
nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Sociology Visitorships - Nuffield College Oxford University
The Nuffield College Sociology Group invites applications for a Visitorship at the College during the 2026-27 academic year (between early October 2026 and late June 2027).
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Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
This September, I’m launching a new series as part of my Respect the Marble Substack called:
 Etched in Marble: Conversations with writers about how & why they write I wrote about in my latest post: catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/introducin... 🧵
catherineeunicedevries.substack.com
Introducing "Etched in Marble": Writers on the Forces That Shape Us and the Writing That Endures
Catherine Talks to Writers About Why and How They Write
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Kristian Bernt Karlson @kbkarlson.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
In a new preprint, I report a fascinating finding on multigenerational effects: First cousins are more similar in their educ. attainment among Black than white Americans—yet extended family (e.g., grandparental) effects are essentially zero for both groups. #sociology 1/2 osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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Kevin Zollman @kevinzollman.com · 14/07/2025
New preprint from @tobyhandfield.bsky.social and me! We analyze authorship order norms from two perspectives: (1) why do disciplines have different norms and (2) do those different norms affect what kinds of collaborations take place. arxiv.org/abs/2507.07364
arxiv.org
The Evolution of Scientific Credit: When Authorship Norms Impede Collaboration
Scientific authorship norms vary dramatically across disciplines, from contribution-sensitive systems where first author is the greatest contributor and subsequent author order reflects relative input...
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
This fall, I'll join the University of Oxford as Professor of Social Policy, Inequality & Opportunity. I'll also become the Director of the Economics, Inequality and Opportunity Program at INET Oxford, and will join @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social as a Professorial Fellow.
inet.ox.ac.uk
Zach Parolin Appointed Oxford Professor of Social Policy, Inequality…
Zach Parolin will direct the Economics, Inequality and Opportunity Programme at INET Oxford, which seeks to understand the drivers and implications of…
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The Niskanen Center @niskanencenter.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
New report by @zparolin.bsky.social: Housing costs, especially in high-cost states like California, are a massive driver of poverty. A few of Zach's key findings ⬇️ 🧵
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Robert Manduca @robertmanduca.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
New working paper alert! Posted at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social, it investigates the economic geography of social transfer programs and financial income--with implications for the Medicaid and SNAP cuts proposed in the reconciliation bill 👀 equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...
equitablegrowth.org
Financial and Transfer Income as Components of the Regional Economic Base
Government transfers and financial income form a major component of the basic sector in the United States.
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Zach Parolin @zparolin.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
New at JPAM: What can state governments do to reduce child poverty? I propose a Targeted Child Tax Credit – a fully-refundable CTC funded mostly through TANF that reduces child poverty with a low overall cost, no benefit cliffs, and high spending efficiency. 🧵 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Targeted Child Tax Credit: An affordable option for state governments to reduce child poverty rates
The federal expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) in 2021 contributed to a record low child poverty rate for the United States; however, the expansion expired after 1 year and Congress is unlikely ...
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Philipp Lersch @pmlersch.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
We are hiring a 3-year postdoc for the ERC-funded WEALTHTRAJECT project at DIW Berlin. More details here: www.diw.de/sixcms/detai...
diw.de
DIW Berlin: Researcher (f/m/x)
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