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Peri K. Lean

@trident40.bsky.social
406 followers 170 following 206 posts

Nom de Post. Not financial, legal, medical, or life advice. Likes & RTs not endorsements.

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Reposted by Peri K. Lean
Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Avg monthly NFP over the past six quarters (since 2Q25) is 36k (red box). Last Q was 43k. No matter how you look at it, that is some weak sauce. Over the prior 45+ years, you only see numbers that weak either right before a recession (like 3Q07) or right after (red line is ~40k)
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Mike Black @mikeblack114.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
it's relieving the GW, just like the Makin Island is relieving the Boxer, just like all of these are rotational swapouts and not additive how are you all still falling for this 8 months in, this is jangling keys toddler levels of attempted misdirection from some of the dumbest admin members and yet
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026
NIPA revisions took a hatchet to corporate margins. Gross domestic income revised UP, pre-tax corporate profits revised DOWN -> 50 bps lower margins for Q2 '26. Note: these are still VERY high historically but now look a lot less so.
Chart showing quarterly pre-tax corporate profit margins % gross domestic income since Q2 2021.
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
So true.
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WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Zelenskyy reported Russia launched 277 strike drones overnight, with 155 being jet-powered models. In Kyiv, strikes damaged two kindergartens, two schools, residential buildings, and the Saudi ambassador residence, leaving dead and dozens injured. A sports school and an orphanage were also hit.
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austin (eeek!/ackkk! 👻) @thebadcode.com · 24/09/2026
the real reason you should anthropomorphize LLMs is that like 8% of your brain by volume is dedicated to processing social rules and why would you leave all that hardware on the table?
en.wikipedia.org
Wason selection task - Wikipedia
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
GS: Realized hyperscaler return on invested capital has declined from 40% to 25%
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Plus vesting schedules tend to be 4 years!
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U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics @usbls.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
57% of workers have flexible schedules; 34% of workers sometimes work at home www.bls.gov/news.release... #ATUS #BLSdata
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LiveSquawk @livesquawknews.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 18-Sep: +2.969M (est -690K; prev -640K) - Distillate: -428K (est -680K; prev +1.585M) - Cushing: +2.266M (prev -342K) - Gasoline: -1.686K (est +500K; prev +794K) - Refinery: -2.80% (est -0.70%; prev -1.00%) www.eia.gov/petroleum/su...
eia.gov
Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Market reacting to today's PMI data. It's a silly measurement, not accurate with respect to the economy or future equity returns. Why? One small firm expanding a tiny bit is counts the same as the largest firm contracting by a massive amount. That's how diffusion indices work. Noise not signal
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
American Petroleum Institute, on a diesel #ExportBan ⛽️
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Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
July 23, 1929 Dec 21, 1999 Sep 21, 2026 $SPX up 1% and within 1% of all-time high and more new 52 week lows than 52 week highs made in the session. h/t Jason Goepfert
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Yen-han Chen 陳彥翰 🇹🇼🇺🇸🇺🇦 @chen-yenhan.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The President of the United States is attempting to support Russia's war effort against a liberal democracy at the expense of the US's closest ally.
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
True! The closest sentiment analog might be the early Industrial Revolution, when it was feared that machines would replace all labor and thus make humans "useless."
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Not sure about tractors, but accountants loved spreadsheet apps to the point that it drove Apple's success with the original Macintosh and Macintosh IIe.
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Yen-han Chen 陳彥翰 🇹🇼🇺🇸🇺🇦 @chen-yenhan.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I should also remind people that Taiwan's military has not really fought since 1958. Pretending the PLA is weak won't defeat China. China has the ambitions of a world-class military, and people should take them seriously.
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Helene Meisler @hmeisler.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
For those who observe Yom Kippur, have an easy fast
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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is regarded as the weakest week of the year
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CRIMINAL SIMPSONS @criminalsimpsons.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
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Evergreen Intel @vcdgf555.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Three Steps and a Stumble #Fed $SPY $STUDY
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
That is great to hear! I wish I could read the results, but I expect the test and its details will not be published (and for very good reasons). Thank you for replying!
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Seems like another case of elder abuse.
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Good thread & worth a read, but this part stuck out. I would unironically love to see an A/B test or study results on hiding from/restricting to mutuals. Does restricting to mutuals increase toxic behavior or lessen it vs hiding from mutuals? Results could inform moderation policies & metrics.
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Wow look at some of these Consumer Discretionary drawdowns (from 52wk high) @finviz_com
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 16/09/2026
SEP adds 25 bps to rate forecast for 2026, 50 bps to 2027/2028. Those are both more hawkish than expected by 25 bps. 2029 forecast 25 bps above economist consensus.
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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
In the past, US equities weak 1-3 mo after first rate hike, even if it occurs with SPX near an ATH (like now)
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Yen-han Chen 陳彥翰 🇹🇼🇺🇸🇺🇦 @chen-yenhan.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
When people tell me that US hostility toward research will drive people into China's arms, I tell them that China (in 2026) is a country that deeply fears talent and knowledge.
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Red Dwarf Robert Llewellyn as Kryten: Hold Me Back!
Alt: Red Dwarf Robert Llewellyn as Kryten: "Hold Me Back!" He is walking backwards, and no one is holding him back.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
SOFI’s LIZ THOMAS: “.. We noted that diesel prices could rise to $6.65/gal by election day based on trends five days ago. Well, trends have worsened — diesel surpassed $6.26/gal already. I think the odds of a diesel export ban announcement before midterms is high.” ⛽️
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LiveSquawk @livesquawknews.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
US Senate Majority Leader Thuine: 'Open To Considering' Diesel Export Ban
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Augur Infinity @augurinfinity.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Do rising yields hurt stocks? This chart focuses exclusively on periods when yields were rising and further divides them based on whether growth was strengthening or weakening. The distinction is clear: rising yields were a meaningful headwind for stocks when accompanied by weakening growth.
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I can't edit, so I'll add that the pivot may be a WIP. If so, looks like they have an uphill battle *despite* being the #1 business conference location in the US and a major entertainment hub.
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Weird. From what I can see in their Q2 10-Qs, casino revenue is up while food & beverage, rooms, and entertainment & retail are net down vs 2025 for the major Las Vegas casinos *except* the Sands.
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Young adults gamble online, leaving physical casinos with a smaller cohort of aging gamblers. It seems their response has been to rebrand as the high-end option for gamblers. Harley Davidson had a similar issue & response w/ motorcycle market. Will be interesting to see if Vegas fares better.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
(WSJ) - American oil executives warned for months that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz was bound to cause a fuel crisis. Now, they say it is here. @wsj.com $CVX www.wsj.com/business/ene...
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Liberty View @libertyview.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
A couple of points. (Also, Bessent is an ass.) The pipeline to the Red Sea is useless when the Strait of Mandeb (bab-al-Mandab) is blocked by the Houthis and supertankers don't fit through Suez. Strait of Hormuz is a transit point for vast amounts of fertilizers and aluminum.
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Trump rejects calls for AI slowdown @seekingalpha ...together with inflation being "beautiful" and a tariff second coming, not sure we can dub DJT as a populist anymore
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 13/09/2026
This will devastate our research+innovation capacity, bedrock of the 21st century economy. 35% of *all* employed people in the US with STEM PhD degrees are both foreign-born *and* graduated from a US university. —> nap.nationalacademies.org/resource/292... Shutting them out is extremist folly.
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Jakub Janovsky @rebel44cz.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Perun-o-clock: Wartime Emergency Weapons - How nations Simplify, Substitute or Suffer through Arms Shortages www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5NQ...
youtube.com
Wartime Emergency Weapons - How nations Simplify, Substitute or Suffer through Arms Shortages
YouTube video by Perun
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Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
"Offensive operations are still possible in modern war. But they need the intellectual effort to develop new techniques to make them viable and repeatable at scale." A review of potential implications of recent Ukrainian counteroffensives in the east & south. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-bu...
mickryan.substack.com
Ukraine Builds New Forms of Offensive Manoeuvre
What Ukraine’s recent counteroffensives in the south and east tell us about the status of the war on the ground, and what they might mean for the trajectory of the conflict in 2026 and 2027.
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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
S&P 500 sector valuations... Staples is now more expensive than Tech @factset
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Samuel Bendett @sambendett.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The first battle in history between two unmanned surface vessels has taken place in the Black Sea. A Ukrainian Sargan 3000 USV that was armed with a 12.7 mm gun has engaged and destroyed a Russian naval drone. t.me/ukrainian_na...
t.me
Військово-Морські Сили ЗС України | UA Navy
🇺🇦⚓ Перший в історії бій морських безекіпажних катерів. Український Sargan знищив російський МБеК Військово-Морські Сили у взаємодії з Головним управлінням розвідки провели у Чорному морі успішну опе...
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Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Elon Musk’s family foundation took Tommy Robinson to Russia, says Musk’s father. Can there be any doubt that Musk is collaborating with Putin to destroy democracy, and that Traitor Tommy is one of their greasy little tools? An FBI probe established repeated secret Putin-Musk communications.
theguardian.com
Elon Musk’s family foundation took Tommy Robinson to Russia, says Musk’s father
Errol Musk says far-right activist is ‘a fine young man’ and held meetings with Russian business figures
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 10/09/2026
“Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing an end,” Capital Economics’ senior market economist James Reilly said Thursday in a note. www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/w...
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 09/09/2026
Personal Heuristic: if the lead story on the NY Times website is about the bond market, fade whatever's happening.
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Peri K. Lean @trident40.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Maybe the best strategy is to produce *some* ABMs, and a *ludicrous* number of MRBMs/TBMs.
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Dancing very very VERY close to saying “OpenAI stole our almost-complete proof of Navier-Stokes from internal access to our ChatGPT sessions because they were desperate to scoop Anthropic” which is absolutely 100% a believable thing OpenAI would do right now cims.nyu.edu/~tristanb/st...
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