Sign in

Mick Ryan

@warinthefuture.bsky.social
58K followers 222 following 2.1K posts

Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia

PostsRepliesMedia
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps showed this week that its counteroffensive has built not just tactical but operational momentum. It has also released information on aspects of UGV integration into ground operations. All this & more in my weekly update. mickryan.substack.com/p/robotic-ai...
mickryan.substack.com
Robotic Air Assaults as Vivaldi Rolls Forward, Russia Attacks Ukrainian Digital Infrastructure, Trump and Xi Meet. My Weekly Update.
This week: ongoing coverage of the 3rd Army Corps eastern counteroffensive including new integrated drone tactics, Russia’s jet-powered drone strikes and the China-US summit.
618538
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Exploitation of enemy weapons, tech & ideas has always been a crucial part of any nation’s warfighting strategy. It permits development of counters - or copying good enemy tech & ideas. Here, the disassembling of a jet-powered Russian Geran-4 attack drone, by @rferl.org.web.brid.gy
312432
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
In this episode of the Russian Roulette podcast, I join Maria Snegovaya (@MSnegovaya) & Sam Charap to discuss whether Western fears of escalation systematically delayed critical military aid, and what victory for Ukraine might look like. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/r...
podcasts.apple.com
Red Lines and Reality: The West's Escalation Dilemma in Ukraine
Podcast Episode · Russian Roulette · 25 September · 43min
4558
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Putin is 'further away' from Donbas victory after disastrous summer offensive. My latest conversation with @KateGerbeau on Frontline about the war in Ukraine. youtu.be/TQokrdFRA-Y?...
youtu.be
Putin is 'further away' from Donbas victory after disastrous summer offensive | Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan
YouTube video by Frontline
316842
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The latest episode of The Shield of the Republic, with Elliott and Eric, is out. As always, it is a great conversation. @ShieldPod podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com
Shield of the Republic
News Commentary Podcast · Updated Weekly · Foreign policy and national security analysis from Eric Edelman and Eliot Cohen www.shieldoftherepublic.com
0394
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Australia has signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine. It includes security assistance, industry & intelligence cooperation, med support to Ukraine’s military, energy, support in countering Russian misinformation, & holding Russia responsible for war crimes. www.dfat.gov.au/countries/uk...
738167
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“No geopolitical conflict in the world today has the capacity, if miscalculated, of bringing ruin upon us all like the one between the United States and China. China tore through our domestic politics three-quarters of a century ago. It could be worse this time.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/21/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | America Is Blundering Toward War With China (Gift Article)
The U.S. has long misunderstood Beijing, and Trump’s mixed signals aren’t helping.
2649
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The authoritarian nations of China, Russia, Iran & North Korea, some of whom have interfered with US elections in the past, are likely to be anticipating the potential for political disfunction during & after the US mid-term elections. How worried should we be? mickryan.substack.com/p/how-much-s...
mickryan.substack.com
How Much Should US Allies Worry About the US Mid-Term Elections?
Exploring the possibility of increased authoritarian aggression during the forthcoming mid-term election period in America.
99920
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is a government, in not wanting to increase defence spending, frittering around the edges of personnel policy with minor announcements. What is needed is major changes in force structure, readiness, capacity to learn and adapt, and resourcing. www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
politico.com
Australian soldiers could be called back for war 10 years after leaving service
Doubling post-service commitment to strengthen defense reserves.
28513
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
“Asking how this war will end, therefore, is unfortunately the wrong question. Even if there is some temporary truce or accommodation with the Houthis or Iran, the better request is: Tell me how this gets worse.” Eliot Cohen at @theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
Don’t Ask How This War Ends
It is, unfortunately, the wrong question.
413430
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A detailed and very informative essay from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on Operation Vivaldi and tactical evolution in Ukraine. samf.substack.com/p/operation-...
samf.substack.com
Operation Vivaldi and the Battle for Donetsk
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has three distinctive components.
012216
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Offensive manoeuvre is not dead, and Vivaldi has demonstrated this. Whether Vivaldi’s next movement expands on current operations, or consolidates what has already been taken, is a fascinating question. My weekly update is now available. mickryan.substack.com/p/vivaldis-f...
mickryan.substack.com
Vivaldi’s First Season, Faster Drones, Slower Diplomacy and an Authoritarian Confrontation Without End, The Big Five 20 September edition
In this week’s update: a progress update on Operation Vivaldi in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s escalating civilian train attacks, a new phase in the Ukraine War, and the Big Five reading recommendations.
417537
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Witkoff is even more inept than we thought. A good examination of the role of the White House front man for US efforts to end the war in Ukraine from the @KyivIndependent kyivindependent.com/exclusive-uk...
kyivindependent.com
Exclusive: Ukraine, Russia are done with Steve Witkoff. Trump sees no problem
Kyiv and Moscow are growing increasingly frustrated with the U.S.-mediated peace process — and with Washington's Envoy Steve Witkoff, people familiar with the matter told the Kyiv Independent. Witkof...
1421471
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
We need to dispense with the useless euphemisms that have previously been used to describe this so politicians can look away. This is war, plain and simple, and is how Putin sees it. And it will only get worse until Russia thinks it is getting push back. understandingwar.org/research/def...
understandingwar.org
The Russian Military Campaign Against Europe: Defining the Threat
The Kremlin is conducting a coordinated series of kinetic campaigns targeting Europe and NATO states must design holistic responses.
320150
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
In war, the difficulty of strategic leadership increases by orders of magnitude. I have just published an assessment of General Drapatyi's "Principles of Leadership" to see how he is thinking about command Ukraine's armed forces. mickryan.substack.com/p/strategic-...
mickryan.substack.com
Strategic Leadership Renewed: Examining the Principles of Leadership Issued by General Drapatyi
An analysis of strategic leadership during the war in Ukraine, and the new Principles of Leadership issued by the new Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief.
19019
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
While Ukraine fights to preserve its democracy and history against Russia, Russia funds the wedding for the son of the person formerly known as "leader of the free world". abcnews.com/Politics/rus...
abcnews.com
Russian oligarch paid for parts of Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding celebration, report says
Bettina Anderson characterized it as an "extremely generous wedding gift from a friend."
2026497
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
"Offensive operations are still possible in modern war. But they need the intellectual effort to develop new techniques to make them viable and repeatable at scale." A review of potential implications of recent Ukrainian counteroffensives in the east & south. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-bu...
mickryan.substack.com
Ukraine Builds New Forms of Offensive Manoeuvre
What Ukraine’s recent counteroffensives in the south and east tell us about the status of the war on the ground, and what they might mean for the trajectory of the conflict in 2026 and 2027.
117141
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
"Middle Powers are rarely drivers of RMAs but they often are successful adopters. They can seek advantage in observing global developments and picking key capabilities that meet their needs." A new post at Futura Doctrina from guest author, Dr Frank Hoffman. mickryan.substack.com/p/expanding-...
16812
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
My latest weekly update is now out. This week: a new diplomatic push in Ukraine, General Drapatyi’s strategic guidance, deep strikes continue & the Big Five recommended readings. mickryan.substack.com/p/diplomacy-...
mickryan.substack.com
Diplomacy on the Side. A New Peace Push in Ukraine, General Drapatyi’s Leadership Principles, and Chinese Aggression in the Pacific. The Big Five, 6 September 2026
In this week’s update: a new diplomatic push in Ukraine from the Trump administration, Drapatyi’s strategic guidance, deep strikes continue, and the Big Five recommended readings.
28716
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
This article begins with the following proposition: “the warrior ethos is no longer useful philosophy for any military service…the warrior ethos is largely a stumbling block to the professional development of soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines.” An excellent piece. www.usni.org/magazines/pr...
usni.org
Where Exactly Has the Warrior Ethos Gotten Us?
The Marine Corps should revive its traditional ethos, emphasizing professional competence, readiness, honor, courage, and commitment for the demands of modern warfare.
721252
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
How do we shift from observing to absorbing lessons on modern war? In my latest piece, I explore ten urgent imperatives for military leaders to transform their institutions to be successful in 21st century warfare. mickryan.substack.com/p/modern-war...
mickryan.substack.com
Modern War: Ukraine, the Middle East and Imperatives for Modern Military Institutions
How do we shift from observing lessons from other peoples’ wars to absorbing them and improving our capacity to fight wars in the 21st century?
25612
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
"Any Russian advance from Belarus would be impossible to hide, likely to be subject to pre-emptive attacks & under surveillance/attack from Ukrainian drones for the entire duration of operation." My weekly update on war & strategic competition. mickryan.substack.com/p/potential-...
mickryan.substack.com
Potential Northern Offensive, Exotic Proposals, Hardening Positions and a Distracted Superpower. The Big Five 30 August edition
This week: a potential Russian offensive into northern Ukraine, Putin’s rejection of diplomacy, the ground and air wars, Pacific security developments and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
111317
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Afternoon walk
3680
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
"Any planned Russian advance from Belarus would be impossible to hide, likely to be subject to pre-emptive attacks, and under surveillance and attack from Ukrainian drones for the entire duration of any advance." mickryan.substack.com/p/potential-...
mickryan.substack.com
Potential Northern Offensive, Exotic Proposals, Hardening Positions and a Distracted Superpower. The Big Five 30 August edition
This week: a potential Russian offensive into northern Ukraine, Putin’s rejection of diplomacy, the ground and air wars, Pacific security developments and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
718439
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Good wars, bad wars and stupid wars. Another superb essay on strategy and modern war from @ldfreedman.bsky.social samf.substack.com/p/good-wars-...
samf.substack.com
Good Wars, Bad Wars, and Stupid Wars
Could the war in Iran do even more damage to the US than Iraq?
312723
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Recently, a U.S. Army brigade in Europe had a tough learning experience against Ukrainian drone operators. My latest at the Lowy Institute asks whether other military institutions, including the Australian Army, would do any better. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
lowyinstitute.org
The US Army lost against Ukraine but would Australia do any better?
The Ukraine war presents a profound learning opportunity for the Australian Army. It has barely begun to adopt the lessons.
214926
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The US Marines have released their vision for ground combat out to 2040. While remaining centred on the role of humans, it has significant injections of autonomous systems, data-informed decision-making, and other tech to inform new warfighting concepts. media.defense.gov/2026/Aug/26/...
75910
Reposted by Mick Ryan
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 27/08/2026
⚡️Explosions rock Kyiv as Russia launches ballistic missiles at the capital and other regions across Ukraine. Several consecutive explosions were heard in Kyiv around 3 a.m. local time on Aug. 27, according to Kyiv Independent journalists on the ground.
717067
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Leaders in nations across the Pacific should read Trump’s edict about reducing training with South Korea as a clear signal to step up investment in defence. My latest commentary. mickryan.substack.com/p/americas-r...
mickryan.substack.com
America’s Reduction in Contributions to Ulchi Freedom Shield is a Warning to Pacific Allies
Leaders in nations across the Pacific should read Trump’s edict about reducing training with South Korea as a clear signal to step up investment in defence.
28817
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
In my latest weekly update on war and strategic competition, Ukraine is developing evolved doctrine for long-range strike, Russia’s challenge to European strategic depth, Putin's new speech, North Korean battlefield learning and my Big 5 reading recommendations. mickryan.substack.com/p/building-s...
mickryan.substack.com
Building Strategic Depth, Longer Range Sanctions, Putin’s Speech and North Korean Learning About Modern War. The Big Five, 23 August edition
This week: Ukraine is developing evolved doctrine for long-range strike, Russia’s challenge to European strategic depth, North Korean battlefield learning and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
010720
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The just finished Han Kuang exercise in Taiwan was more realistic, longer & had an emphasis on whole-of-society preparedness. It had insights for civil-mil integration, civil defence & resilience for other democracies - if we are smart enough to watch & learn. mickryan.substack.com/p/taiwans-wh...
mickryan.substack.com
Taiwan’s Whole-of-Society Exercise: What Han Kuang 42 Should Teach the Rest of Us
An exploration of the recent Han Kuang whole-of-society exercise in Taiwan, and why Western nations should be watching and learning.
418343
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
"What the defense world needs is a sea change in its approach to risk. Officials in the Defense Department & Congress, working with the private sector, must take appropriate financial, process, and reputational risks today to avoid taking more dangerous ones." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
America’s Missing Military Revolution
Why Washington still risks losing the tech race.
1566
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
“Taiwan should not simply wait for China to establish the terms of cognitive warfare and then scramble to defend itself. It should define the terrain itself with honesty and purpose.” www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
taipeitimes.com
The importance of self-criticism - Taipei Times
Discussions of “cognitive warfare” in Taiwan often take an overly sensitive stance without ever taking the lead in setting the agenda. Many Taiwanese fall back on simplistic apologetics and complacent...
110117
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
"Scaling back the exercise is, of course, an insane decision, which does nothing but hurt an ally, and tempt an adversary to think—correctly—that American leadership is feckless." www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
Trump Will Make South Korea Pay For His Iran Humiliation
His rage is driving him to make irrational policy choices.
1341969625
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
In my latest conversation with Nataly Lutsenko, we discuss the potential for Russian mobilisation of up 500,000 new troops from September and the impact this might have on the war. www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJgJ...
youtube.com
😱Putin as YOU'VE NEVER SEEN HIM! Total COLLAPSE in Russia. Kremlin's plot EXPOSED
YouTube video by War & Politics 24
210211
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
This will do wonders for China’s arbitrary claiming of waters, islands and the sovereign territory of others across the Pacific.
1633981
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Another superb essay from @LawDavF samf.substack.com/p/the-war-be...
samf.substack.com
The war beyond the frontlines
Assessing Ukranian and Russian strategies for long-range attacks
18310
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
When I published Adaptation War last year, I argued that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea had assembled a connected knowledge market on twenty-first-century war and strategic competition. Since then, the evidence behind this proposition has only mounted. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-adapta...
mickryan.substack.com
The Adaptation War Deepens
Authoritarian collaboration since November 2025, and why Western strategists must urgently build and execute a strategy to confront it.
415745
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
There is an old saying - “when you don’t know what to do, do what you know.” It explains many historical failures. This is Putin now. He has no strategy to win his brutal war against Ukraine, and no prospect of winning, so he does what he knows. kyivindependent.com/explosions-r...
kyivindependent.com
10 injured as explosions rock Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia amid Russian ballistic missile attack across Ukraine
Ten people were reported injured as Russia launched ballistic missile attacks on cities across Ukraine overnight on Aug. 11.
215337
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
In my update this week: Ukrainian long range strikes, Russia's deadly missile barrages, Russia's military leadership reshuffle, Taiwan prepares for war & my Big 5 reading recommendations. mickryan.substack.com/p/missile-ba...
mickryan.substack.com
Missile Barrages Against Ukraine, Switching Off Crimea, Russia’s Military Reshuffle and Preparing for War in Taiwan. The Big Five, 9 August edition
This week: Ukrainian long range strikes, Russia's deadly missile barrages, Russia's military leadership reshuffle, Taiwan prepares for war, and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
08416
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Christian Thiels @christianthiels.eurosky.social · 10/08/2026
"A new drone security research center will be established later in August at a German Aerospace Center (DLR) test airport in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, Dobrindt said." DW www.dw.com/en/germany-i...
dw.com
Germany: Interior Minister warns of 'daily' hybrid warfare
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt says attacks by foreign powers have become a constant threat to Germany. His remarks come just days after an explosive-laden drone was found at Leipzig airp...
14910
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Data projects by Texty.org.ua @texty.org · 07/08/2026
❗️Russia’s attacks on Kyiv follow a pattern. Our updated interactive map reveals where attacks are concentrated, how Russia’s aerial terror has evolved, and why residential areas remain under constant threat ⬇️ texty.org.ua/articles/117...
texty.org.ua
Map of terror. How Russia changed its tactics in attacks on Kyiv (infographics)
Over the course of more than four years of full-scale war, Russian missiles, drones, and shells have left their mark …
05624
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
A good examination of drone walls, the hellscape concept and Taiwan’s use of drones from @ChuBailiang and @amy_changchien. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/09/w...
nytimes.com
How a Drone ‘Hellscape’ Might Stop a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (Gift Article)
Inspired by Ukraine’s battlefield gains, Taiwan is betting on drones to deter a potential Chinese invasion.
19518
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
The war in Iran has shown that Trump’s inability to perceive reality has become truly dangerous. Iran is a disaster, but Trump’s irrationality could create other, even more perilous situations. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
Trump’s Irrationality Is Dangerous
The president’s recent rant is a sign of serious dysfunction in the Oval Office.
971701619
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
In my update this week on conflicts around the globe, Ukrainian long range strikes, Russia's deadly missile barrages, Russia's military leadership reshuffle, Taiwan prepares for war & my Big 5 reading recommendations. mickryan.substack.com/p/missile-ba...
mickryan.substack.com
Missile Barrages Against Ukraine, Switching Off Crimea, Russia’s Military Reshuffle and Preparing for War in Taiwan. The Big Five, 9 August edition
This week: Ukrainian long range strikes, Russia's deadly missile barrages, Russia's military leadership reshuffle, Taiwan prepares for war, and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
110422
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Japan’s latest annual Defence of Japan document has just been released. This is always a useful document on how Japan is thinking about the global security environment, regional security dynamics, insights from modern war, and Japan’s national response. www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_pa...
mod.go.jp
Japan Ministry of Defense
09714
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
“Changes in leadership often boil down to war weariness as, over time, the strategic picture fails to change. President Zelensky should not, as we must not, lose sight of the eventual aim, which is victory.“ @engelsbergideas.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/essays/what-...
engelsbergideas.com
What Zelensky must learn from war leaders past
The history of modern warfare suggests that leaders who are ruthless towards failing ministers and generals are best able to keep their armed forces innovative on the battlefield.
012717
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
My latest explores why Ukraine chose to formalise its long-range strike architecture, assesses how the new command can add to Ukraine’s strategic and political endeavours, and what Western militaries should learn from Ukraine’s example. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-l...
mickryan.substack.com
Ukraine's Long-Range Strike Command: Institutionalising Deep Strike
After years of technical and tactical innovation, as well collaboration between Ukrainian organisations and foreign agencies, Ukraine takes the next step in its long-range strike endeavours.
110511
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Molly McKew @mollymckew.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Is Russia helping Iran? Duh Is China helping Russia? Duh Is it possible for too many western analysts to live in the delusion that China Russia and Iran can be separated/played against each other? Duh www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Iran strikes on CIA facilities prompt questions about possible Russian role
Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities in the Gulf have prompted U.S. intelligence analysts to investigate whether Russia assisted by providing targeting information or ​advanced drone technology, sa...
1729192
Mick Ryan @warinthefuture.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
“Kyiv may be in the best position in the war since 2022, but the Kremlin believes it will crush the will of Ukraine & its friends this winter. Russia may be struggling, but Putin has not exhausted his options. He still wants to fight for as long as possible.” www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-...
foreignaffairs.com
Why a Weaker Russia Keeps Fighting
Putin sees little need to negotiate.
1218350