iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Georgia Tomova @georgiatomova.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Super excited for our next CIIG seminar on causal triangulation with Keling Wang 💃 See the abstract and register here: ucl.zoom.us/meeting/regi... See more about the CIIG and subscribe: ciig-seminar.github.io

Causal Inference Interest Group seminar on 9th November 2026 3pm GMT.
Title:The more independent evidence, the more we should believe? On the nature, goals and reasoning process of causal triangulation.
Speaker: Keling Wang, Erasmus MC

02310

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 22h

A regression without colinearity diagnostics is like a fish without a bicycle

0253

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Julian Togelius @togelius.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

New blog post: A.I.: Anti-Intellectualism togelius.blogspot.com/2026/10/ai-a...

312124

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I agree from a rational perspective, but unfortunately on top of that I find it personally very emotionally draining to see and engage with.

010

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I'm slowly starting to mute the LLMs-are-better-than-us-at-everything nihilist posters on here, so I can focus on interesting (and yes, reasonable) takes.

120

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Classic example of massive confusion in elites in recent decades. The elites are never in danger of being driven into suicide by "motivated" judicial and prosecution projects. We need to keep remembering him!

050

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Emi Tanaka @emitanaka.org · 30/09/2026

I’m pleased to announce that Vol 18 Issue 3 of The R Journal is out now! 🥳 Free & open access, R journal is made possible by our volunteer editors, reviewers + contributing authors. Thank you all! journal.r-project.org/issues/2026-3/ 🧵 20 articles 👇 #rstats journal.r-project.org/issues/2026-3/

journal.r-project.org

The R Journal: Volume 18/3

Articles published in the September 2026 issue

13911

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Gary Hoppenworth @garytho.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

It turns out someone posted a third polyhedron with this property to arxiv a week ago lol arxiv.org/pdf/2609.177...

25312

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Ah thanks! Even looking at the website I couldn't understand...

000

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Do you know how they compare to day some Sony or Huawei noise cancelling in ear? I seem to not understand the uniqueness property.

100

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Omg impressive... That was quick, sometimes no one can resist a little crafty business I guess. Seriously though, is it difficult to put together? And worth it? I'm intrigued, in any case it looks worth it:)

120

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Shubhendu Trivedi @shubhendu.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

These accounts exist aplenty. You could think of the entire Bourbaki project as concerned with understanding at a structural level, not problems. What is the right conceptual framework in which this theorem becomes natural? The emphasis was on definitions and conceptual architecture.

191

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

That's also really good to know. On a related note, that makes me feel really competent for these needs 😅

010

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Super helpful, thanks a lot! I was already curious about possible surprises. I had read some EU topic-specific hta guidelines, which seemed reasonable though vague.

110

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Thanks for the suggestion! Basically the latter, but with many others having strong but not mainly (public health, pharmacology, econ) stats background.

010

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I'm starting a new position as an (internal) stats consultant in an hta setting in November. Dear mutuals, I would really appreciate some of your favourite books/articles/ressources suggestions, especially on the (group) consulting topic:) @statsepi.bsky.social @ostlundollie.bsky.social

4111

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Semiosmith @semiosmith.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

AI is good for giving the appearance of being productive, no?

011

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

How is the marketing "terrible", really?

001

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Ehm, you're including the important initial case "0 kids were so easy, no idea why people are complaining". I like that initial case. Also applies to many things.

110

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

It's a systemic problem in science reporting that these summaries exaggerate the evidence. In the actual candy study, the participants were all students, status was manipulated in the lab by telling some students they were better than others, and "nearly twice" means 1 piece vs 2 pieces.

Piff and his colleagues found that upper-class drivers were more likely to cut other cars off at junctions and ignore pedestrians at crossings. Wealthier people also appeared more willing to lie at work. In one experiment, volunteers were left alone with a jar of sweets ostensibly meant for children. When the researchers returned, upper-class people had snaffled nearly twice as many candies as lower-class people.

1329166

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Ryan Moulton @moultano.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I think you all should know this bird exists.

817116

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Weeeell, Austrian German is also called "German", so this always turns into a circular discussion. And nearly all our dialects (one exception) are Bairisch, so... Even though I am sure you know all that, can't hold back on this one 😅

010

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

The overreaction to this Hugging Face thing is driving me nuts. Come flay me for being wrong but... 1/x

14436126

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Editors who at least *might* demand revisions if they saw a piece committing an obvious logical fallacy like affirming the consequent routinely *don't* ask pop psych or business psych contributors to demand revisions for selection on the dependent variable.

12219

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Sometimes have to repost to make everyone *worthy* feel less alone :D

010

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Eugene Vinitsky 🍒 @eugenevinitsky.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Do believe we are near peak AI-slop in folks professional work. You see an LLM presentation and think not "wow, how pretty" but "oh, they must not have tried very hard"

5964

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

That's terrible. Even on social media I wonder whether all these people "editing" their posts (LinkedIn looking at you) have led to an increase in perceived quality. Or perceived and implemented "you really don't respect my time".

110

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

This doesn't work for confidence intervals that can be the whole real line. Ratio of Normal means (eg cost-effectiveness) is one genuine case (when both numerator and denominator have uncertain sign) and a trivial case is empty set with prob alpha and whole real line otherwise

131

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Is it? I'm not sure I would turn down that kind of money.

000

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

/kei/ does exist... /ke/ to /ki/ is a typical example of shift, right?

110

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Isn't quay/quai in English RP (maybe even GA) exactly Fr shifted by one vowel?

111

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Dorian Lynskey @dorianlynskey.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

I've written a few books and checked all the quotes (deleting some bangers because I doubted their authenticity) and if you're letting fabricated ones slip through then you're cutting corners in an egregious way. It is not the copy-editor's job to check every source, it's yours. Do the damn work

2640281

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Now that the entire tech industry is on board, here’s a call to build AI models not just with open weights but with an open corpus.

argmin.net

Public Intelligence

A call for AI models with open weights, open source, and open corpus.

05311

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Because of "censoring" : the small vertical lines indicate people leaving the study without death occuring

020

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Adding fuel to the fire, here's a post I wrote about open corpus models last July. It's all still true. www.argmin.net/p/an-open-mi...

argmin.net

An open mindset

The commitments required for fully open source machine learning

12910

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Hmm ok I do know the deficit model. Then I maybe had misunderstood your orig post.

000

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Do you have any good refs re punitive vs motivational? I find that already pretty hard to define, since many students who don't cheat consider "punitive" measures simply leveling measures.

100

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

I wasn't talking about interventations, I do see your point. But I cannot disagree with the OP that LLM-Ai seems to amplify a lot of this.

100

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Not sure about this. There is a middle class (in many countries), studying in higher ed not simply to survive. Of course there are socio-econ pressures, but there are also other socio-cultural tendencies that push people into opportunism at all costs.

110

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

I'd even say *rarely* instead of not always. Also, not only psych and bio, I feel like many engineering disciplines do that too, albeit with a slightly different focus. Classic in engineering: use "Analysis 1" for thinning stud population, more applied parts for "real stuff". Bad bad bad.

000

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

I find it quite balanced, but then again Geschmackssache. Do you like pumpkin seed oil?

110

Fabio E. Tonti @tontief.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Btw pumpkin seed butter is great:)

110

Reposted by Fabio E. Tonti

Gro-Tsen @gro-tsen.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Let me close this thread by linking once more to the closest thing the mathematical community has to a collective position on AI and use of AI in mathematics, and the threats they pose: the Leiden Declaration leidendeclaration.ai •38/38

leidendeclaration.ai

Leiden Declaration on Artificial Intelligence and Mathematics

This declaration calls for action to address the challenges posed by the use of artificial intelligence within mathematics research.

4286