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270toWin - 2028 Presidential Election Interactive Map

In other words, take this maximalist 2029 map, with Dems running the table in >1% races this year and >5% races in 2028. It’s 72D-28R. At most 5 of the Republicans who would be eliminated in 2028 can risk not convicting Trump without him being acquitted again. www.270towin.com/maps/7QDvd

270towin.com

Create your own forecast for the 2028 presidential election

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That means at least 59 Senators next year. Then we threaten the other seats in NC, IA, KS, SC, and maybe LA (plus flip Murkowski in AK), along with WI and either IN, MO, or UT. It’s not inconceivable. But I’d say it’s closer to 1% odds than 10% odds. Plus, some Senators are true believers.

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Going by Trump’s 2024 margin of victory by state, in order to threaten 67 Dem Senators by 2029 (and thereby induce GOP Senators to remove in 2027/28 to avoid that), Dems need to win up to KS, SC, and FL this year, and then either have independents run the table, break LA and MS, or some combination.

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BRAK AND BLUE @yinkadoubledare.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Joe Lieberman, representing a state that hasn’t turned down a Democrat since Mike Dukakis: sorry Harry, the insurance companies don’t want a public option White S. Premcy, MS-the bad part, who got elected in 2006 by calling Dick Cheney a homophobic slur: yes madam speaker, all glory to the party 🫡

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so Achilles is saying we probably won't need to Hector him into the right position, eh?

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Me: I don’t get the point of the thin red line flag. Plenty of people hate the police, so it makes sense that people who support them would make the thin blue line flag. But who hates firefighters? The humble Bluesky:

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I am a social conservative, which is why I vote straight ticket Democrat.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

UMASS LOWELL MENTIONED WHAT THE HECK IS A CLEAN RIVER

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

-imports get more expensive because container ships run on diesel -trading partners retaliate -gas goes up as refineries cut production -cuts in production cause diesel to reach equilibrium fairly quickly -heating oil spikes in northeast because Gulf refineries don’t ship there Not great! 👀 ♨️

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Doctor Charlton Cussans PhD @charltoncussans.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

"We went to bed one night old-fashioned, conservative, Compromise Union Whigs and waked up stark mad Abolitionists" Amos Adams Lawrence, June 1st, 1854, Boston.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I think this is the endgame No Kings is preparing for.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kapp_Pu... An unarmed populace nonviolently put down a coup by a notoriously brutal military, by civil disobedience and general strike

en.wikipedia.org

Kapp Putsch - Wikipedia

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

By contrast, the number of people younger than me has always been rising but *could* shrink

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yen is building stuff @weiyen.net · 22/09/2026

the number of people older than you is always shrinking, never rises

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The youngest people who were alive the last time a Democratic administration started a war will be collecting social security by the time the next Congress is sworn in

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Eh, he realized that the Empire was bad (“Its not that I like the Empire - I hate it! - but there’s nothing I can do about it right now,”) and yet was apparently willing to join it anyways just to get away from home (unless he was planning to defect as soon as he was trained)

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

If you live in a swing state, go door knocking. Otherwise, write letters/post cards and phone bank. Go to Indivisible’s website to find an event near you. And volunteer as a poll worker for Election Day. Money is nice but of diminishing utility as we get closer, and not everyone has much.

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Fred, His Enemy Getting a Vote @thefred.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

It isn't just 2018 plus. 2018 was still a vestige of the pre-2018 coalitions, including high propensity voters being R-leaning. This may be the first election where LVs are clearly showing up as D leaning. We're off the map in how to model the electorate.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Holy crap The industry that’s taking over the world is populated by the antagonists of my wife’s favorite Netflix drama, a horror comedy where the victims are so annoying that you root for the serial killer protagonist

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Micah @rincewind.run · 19/09/2026

Polling error in your favor, collect $200

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“What do you mean you pollute ON PURPOSE?!” We also saw an abortion debate where the pro-life side (a woman, against a pro-choice man!) was so openly sexist that it had me questioning my own position on the matter.

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I had at this point accepted the scientific consensus on climate change, but was generally too libertarian-brained to think the government should do too much about it other than end fossil fuel subsidies. Meeting kids from Nebraska and North Dakota who talked about “rolling coal” *horrified* me.

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Apropos of nothing: identifying as a Republican (albeit anti Trump) in my teenage years, one of the defining events in my shift towards Democrats was a high school field trip to DC, where we interacted with kids from other states in a civic-political education program.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Ngl in hindsight it’s kind of sus that Obama’s two elections are the worst any Democrat has done in my hometown since Dukakis

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I recall, reading about US history, that farmers consistently begged the government to return crop prices to 1914 levels from the end of WWI to the beginning of the Cold War. Maybe a price change associated with some external trauma (like war or pandemic) is “stickier” psychologically?

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Paul Crider @paulcrider.liberalcurrents.com · 16/09/2026

I would just caution against using the phrase "unleaded", because it will give Republicans the idea that they need to mandate leaded gasoline, because unleaded is woke and weak.

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Spam McGrumper🌹 @cooptimo.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Right, Like I like him but he's on the same list as Tom Nichols where I agree 90% but then they get in dumb fights with rando morons.

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Fred, His Enemy Getting a Vote @thefred.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Weird how one-issue voters also abstained last time on an entirely different issue.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Why do they always talk about urine

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

These people would have sat out 1860 because Lincoln affirmed white supremacy, denied any interest in enfranchising free blacks, even expressed openness to deporting them, denounced John Brown, and promised to enforce the Fugitive Slave Act.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

I can actually follow the argument that the Constitution doesn’t permit the federal government to mandate individuals to purchase health insurance. I disagree, but I follow. But how on Earth can setting a new uniform Medicaid size be unconstitutional if the original size wasn’t?!

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it's me 🫠 @thayet.net · 12/09/2026

the worst part is I can't tell my wife why I'm making this face

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Mine is probably Sandy Hook I heard about it in math class, but my strongest memory is the weekend after, when I broke my mom’s iPad trying to film myself playing video games She broke down crying and was like “I’m just so glad I still have you to break my things!” 12 year old me was like “…ok?”

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Evelyn Waughluigi @mattressisland.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

it's the best cinematic portrayal of The Auspicious Incident out there

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Larry @larryskorke.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

"is Watto a Jew or a Turk", dumbest thread in the history of Stormfront, locked by a moderator after 12,239 pages of heated debate

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Jorvorskie Braaaiiins @jorvorskielaynes.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Watto is so racist that even trying to figure out exactly what kind of stereotype he is feels offensive

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But sheesh… if these numbers are correct, Dems will not just exceed Harris’ vote count in November, but *Biden’s*, at 84.2M, while Republicans will be knocked back to about Trump 2016 levels at 64.7M. That puts the Dem share of the two party vote at 56.6%. That’s a D+13.2 generic ballot.

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Although I do find it interesting that Flight 93 would not have been possible ten years beforehand. Without satellite calls on phones, the passengers never hear about the earlier attacks and piece together that the claim that they’re being taken hostage is a lie.

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…did KSL think this would end any other way than the first few attacks succeeding and then every remaining plane getting blow out of the sky and/or Flight 93’d?

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