iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

*Mississippi Kansas will be the bluest of the three, and is the only one I give serious odds of flipping

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I mean, polls have Turek and Hamilton narrowly up and Osborn extremely narrowly down. This is, assuming a bell curve of possible results around the actual polls, the second most likely result.

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South Carolina has to be closer than Kansas IMO.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 2h

Why is Mississippi closer than South Carolina? They had ~the same result in 2020, but South Carolina has seen a significant decline in Republican candidate quality since then, and has two right wing spoilers, while Mississippi has one left wing spoiler. And SC polling is closer and more frequent.

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Not really. Gideon was leading the polling average by five points, and most polls had her under 50%. An embarrassing error (made worse by RCV fluffing Collins’ margin compared to if they’d done full tabulation), but there have been worse.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 2h

Is it? Trump was booted out despite those both being quite low in 2020. And his approval was sagging the second time around even before the war began.

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Now only if Wu wasn’t car brained

Reposted by Thoreau Away

>The Democratic Party is Xander Harris

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>The Democratic Party is Xander Harris

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 5h

But that bit (that S3 is self enforcing) isn’t in the text itself, and liberals aren’t usually willing to read anti-democratic elements into the Constitution by implication, hence why even the liberals concurred in the judgment

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I mean you *can* just say “the 14th Amendment doesn’t disqualify anyone unless Congress acts to do so,” like SCOTUS did It would be incorrect, but it’s plausible enough that not a single objection was raised on 1/6/25

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 6h

“A cycle of packing and counterpacking is good and will delegitimize the court!” We won’t have time for it to become a cycle, because President Schmitt’s handpicked court won’t allow Republicans to lose another election

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 6h

Yeah the fundamental problem is that packing only to get counterpacked four years later is worse than if we hadn’t packed at all So your options are: -Gamble that you’ll hold power long enough for the GOP to be forced to moderate -Threaten packing to force an amendment -Rig elections

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Reposted by Thoreau Away

pete (goblin time) @ptmoria.com · 7h

It’s a weird quirk that the more institution-sensitive stuff like term limits with scheduled appointments is structurally more difficult to accomplish (needs constitutional amendment) than court packing (statute)

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 7h

The man certainly deserves to die. His guilt is not disputed. Other than not wanting to give this government the satisfaction of being the ones to kill him, the main reason to oppose the death penalty here is because he is an Islamist terrorist who *wants* to be “martyred.” Let the man rot.

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 8h

Huh, I thought he ran again in 1992 for some reason, I guess not

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 9h

Most Republicans, sure. But the median voter convinced themselves that Trump didn’t really mean all that racist stuff and was only going after “the worst of the worst,” and is disturbed by the fact that he did mean it

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 19h

Which makes Eric our James II, which means his son-in-law is the prospective William III

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 19h

Who will be the guy we put in the dramatic scene in the movie even though he wasn’t really there?

Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 20h

Screenshot for the blocked?

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 20h

“Lynchanegro, VA” is the woke replacement name

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 21h

Ignoring Congress seems like a better play than openly attempting to dissolve them Which of course probably means Trump will attempt the latter

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Thoreau Away @thoreauaway.bsky.social · 22h

Isn’t threatening the King still literally treason in the UK?

Dems didn’t actually triage AZ-2 tho

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One of the best bits is North Carolina just being depressed instead of frantic because it was the closest Trump state

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Is it? I can easily see the Taliban as just a better armed version of the freaks who show up in coordinated outfits to Select Board meetings outraged at the notion that the police should be subject to law, cowing normal people into silence

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Reposted by Thoreau Away

That being said, there’s a bit of an obvious contradiction in “anarchism with mandatory voting.”

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That being said, there’s a bit of an obvious contradiction in “anarchism with mandatory voting.”

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Part of that, admittedly, is low participation rates. Shifting local election dates to align with national election dates makes local government considerably more liberal, and a town meeting chosen at random instead of from the sickos who sign up would be more representative.

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Big Dog on the Space Cat @derekcarrsopp.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Hoping to update that with at least two, and potentially a couple more, smiling blue Pepes

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Reposted by Thoreau Away

they called it the battle of salamis. I said salami? they said, no, it's salamis, it's not-- it's not a sausage, and I said wow. you wouldn't know it, but it's different. so we're looking into that.

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Oh phew, I was dyslexic for a moment

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SCOTUS says one of “Rubio is now acting President, including Congressmen in the line of succession is unconstitutional” or “doesn’t apply to acting Presidents,” 6-3

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Twelve “Iowa swing voters,” all hiding their Harris shirts under their jackets: yes Ashley, we totally sympathize with you after this ad

I will unironically suspect rigging if Republicans keep the House

I immediately thought Arkansas, but polls substantially underestimated Cotton, so Pryor, despite losing by margins comparable to Blanche, was seen as competitive in a way Blanche never was. Maybe Tennant failing to hold Rockefeller’s WV seat against Capito?

Please never begin a post with those five words again unless you mean it

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I’d moreso say it’s a “luxury” of when the party perceived as responsible for economic malaise is also the party of social equality. It’s harder to associate outcasts with your own troubles when the people presiding over those troubles hate the outcasts more than you do!

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54, Hamilton is narrowly up as well!

Not sure how A and B connect here tbh