iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Christina Toms @christinatoms.bsky.social · 17h

It’s frankly unlikely to exist on the same track by March.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 12h

On Tuesday, Oct 13 at 1pm PT, I'll have my "big October El Niño" update. There's a lot to discuss regarding this extremely strong event and the growing likelihood of substantial California & SW US impacts.

youtube.com

The big October El Niño update: Status check on El Niño, still expected to become historic,& impacts - YouTube

The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 10/13/2026 topics: ...

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The biggest threats, regardless, will be from water and not wind (as is almost always the case with tropical cyclones). Inland flash flooding from heavy rainbands is likely from SE CA deserts and eastern mountain slopes northeastward into W. AZ, S. NV, and UT.

Map of flash flood risk from NOAA WPC. Parts of the US SW are depicted as having level 3/4 (moderate) risk--which indicates considerably potential for flash flooding.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Couple of snapshots of mid-level strato/altocumulus cloud deck arriving in Santa Barbara in advance of Tropical Storm Rachel (late morning on Oct 10). Bands of showers and thunderstorms are already approaching San Diego and Orange counties; main event will be late tonight. #CAwx

Photograph by Daniel Swain showing mid-level strato/alto-cumulus clouds as viewed, looking south from Santa Barbara, on Oct 10.

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Terre Logsdon @terreal.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Of course, use the next few weeks to get more informed on all the propositions and issues - but study the nonpartisan voting guide first. You received it before the ballot - and CA is one of the few states that takes the time to put one together.

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Terre Logsdon @terreal.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

While it's true that we have a hefty mid-term ballot here in CA, do not get discouraged fellow Californians! Vote on the issues you are informed in, don't guess on what you are not sure of. It's not a requirement to vote on everything. What is most important is to just vote!

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The most significant impacts will likely be from heavy rainfall in desert portions of far southeastern CA, western AZ, and much of UT. Serious flash flash flooding is possible, depending on track, anywhere from eastern slopes of San Diego County mtns to mtns of central Utah.

Map of accumulated precipitation over the next 6 days from ECMWF ensemble. It shows a swath of significant, locally heavy rainfall arcing northeastward from far SoCal/northern Baja CA across the SE CA deserts into AZ/UT.

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DC Pierson @dcpierson.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

ONE TYPE OF PERSON ON SOCIAL MEDIA: I don’t like AI THE OTHER TYPE OF PERSON ON SOCIAL MEDIA: Pretty naïve of you to say that when it just zip zorped the gringle in less than seven kleebs. SEVEN. KLEEBS.

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IPBES @ipbes.net · 08/10/2026

The 2026 @wwf.org.uk Living Planet Report is live! The #NexusAssessment showed that biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change are interconnected. The #LivingPlanetReport brings a message of hope: by transforming these systems, we can create tipping points benefiting nature and people.

PH: One of the central findings of the IPBES Nexus Assessment was that biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change cannot be managed in isolation. The 2026 Living Planet Report, released today, reinforces this message powerfully. The same energy, food and financial systems driving biodiversity loss are also shaping the resilience of our terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Integrated action can generate multiple benefits at once, creating shared gains for nature and people.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

As the California heatwave slowly fades, a fairly dramatic change in the pattern now appears increasingly likely over the coming weekend into next week. An early-season trough may "phase" with the remnants of Hurricane Rachel, drawing it more directly into SoCal. [Short thread]

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Bonkers: Sea levels are running 1.2ft above the late-20th century baseline in San Diego as sea surface temperatures are about 7°F warmer than normal. These highly anomalous ocean temperatures and heights will continue through winter along the California coast amid El Niño. #CAwx

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Terre Logsdon @terreal.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

oh weird. I hadn't noticed, but maybe because I haven't posted much

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Luke O'Neil @lukeoneil47.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I bulldozed a 200 year old tree today.

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Terre Logsdon @terreal.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I sure do wish we had ARk Storm 2.0 modeling for Clear Lake...

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

So, I crunched the numbers. The ECMWF indicates odds of at least one extremely (>200% of avg) month are above 50% in all CA regions, and odds of at least one very wet (>150%) month are 90-100% in all regions. The odds of *multiple* 150%/200% months are also strikingly high.

$Bar charts for December–March show the fraction of 51 October-initialized members with at least one qualifying month. Northern, Central and Southern California respectively: above 150 percent of average in 46, 48 and 50 members; above 200 percent in 31, 40 and 45; above the historical monthly record-ratio threshold in 5, 11 and 13. Thresholds apply to regional-average precipitation. Fractions are uncalibrated.$

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Just did some number crunching using latest (Oct 1) ECMWF seasonal data, and I must say that I've never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter. This is a truly extraordinary forecast amid a record-strength El Niño event. [Thread: please read to end.]

Model-relative sea surface temperature anomalies for November 2026–January 2027. The supplied grid is displayed without added smoothing or coastal filling. Beige marks land and gray marks missing ocean values. The main colour scale spans -2 to +10°F, with white at zero. Hot pink marks anomalies above +10°F. This map does not establish an operational ENSO category.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Recorded live and now available below, in case you missed it. I plan to have a big "El Niño update" focused livestream 6-7 days from now, so stay tuned!

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Dezene Huber 🍁 🌻 @dezene.me · 05/10/2026

This article is excellent. "As I deconstructed my beliefs, my professors encouraged my journey, allowing me to explore new ideas through reflections and research projects." Score one for public post-secondary eduction. thetyee.ca/Opinion/2026... 🌎

thetyee.ca

I Used to Believe Climate Change Was a Hoax | The Tyee

My experience shows why local politicians need to push back against climate denialism.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I've already been pretty aggressive in sounding that alarm, more so than most of my colleagues, with the caveat (then, and even now) that this is still a *probabilistic* forecast (rather than a deterministic one). But yes, with each passing month, the odds of consequential outcomes are rising.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Latest ECMWF ensemble update is out, and outlook re: El Niño & associated regional hydroclimate impacts is even more extraordinary vs Sep. I'll discuss briefly in today's livestream, & more comprehensively next week. But odds of consequentially wet CA winter continue to rise...

Map from ECMWF ensemble update in Oct showing the likelihood of Jan-Mar precipitation being above the median. The odds are nearly 100% across all of California and much of the American Southwest, which is truly extraordinary.

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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 05/10/2026

Holy shit.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I am expanding today's livestream to also, at least briefly, cover just-updated data regarding the California/SW US hydroclimate implications of the historically strong El Niño event later this winter.

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Rebecca Solnit @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Domestic abuse is so widespread an issue that a major employer is incorporating employees' need to deal with it into their employee benefits. Union rep: "said domestic violence and abuse affected the lives of at least one in five women, and he urged other employers to introduce similar support."

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Coach Finstock @coachfinstock.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Exactly. This is such a lie. Email had a purpose. The internet had a purpose. Search had a purpose. Everybody loved Silicon Valley in the 90s because they made shit that did what it promised. Now 3 guys who never made SHIT have ALL the money in SV. They're scam artists. Not engineers.

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Erik Schlenker-Goodrich @riogranderift.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

John Arnold = principle founder of Abundance spawn think tanks. Along with a bunch of other Billionaires.

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shauna @goldengateblond.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

mistakes were made

california post headline: california squirrel's flying attack is finalist in national wildlife photo competition

photo depicts a squirrel in mid-flight from a tree branch, apparently about to attack an owl who has the most "are you fucking KIDDING me" look in history

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Neil Lareau @neillareau.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Radar reconstruction of the #BullFire plume near #Reno, NV. The data reveal repeated pulses of deep plume development, ending abruptly when the fire burned into an earlier burn scar.

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Michael Warburton @michaelwarburton.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In 1970, students in a fifth-grade class at Hawthorne School in Beverly Hills were assigned to write a letter to someone they admired, asking them “What makes a good citizen?" So 10yr old Joel Lipton wrote to Peanuts cartoonist Charles M. Schulz. Joel got a reply.

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Jared Dahl Aldern @jdaldern.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

2000 years of managing water and controlling fire: "The Talang Tuwo inscription is a historical record dated to the year 684 C.E. and written in Old Malay. The inscription documents the creation of a green park and the treatment of ponds and dams under king Sri Jayanasa."

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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 03/10/2026

Your 'doom quote' for today: "The problem is that nature, the independent force that has surrounded us since our earliest days, cannot coexist with our numbers and our habits." www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-end-of...

thriftbooks.com

The End of Nature book by Bill McKibben

Buy a cheap copy of The End of Nature book by Bill McKibben. Reissued on the tenth anniversary of its publication, this classic work on our environmental crisis features a new introduction by the auth...

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Michael Wara @michaelwara.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The report notes that the real challenge is to existing, older homes/communities. It highlight's the importance of zone 0 (5 ft around structures) as key to home survival in wind driven fires. While BOF did finalize zone 0 regs this year, they will not apply to existing structures until Aug of 2031.

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Brenny @pissedoffinnh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

What do i love this so much??

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Karen Attiah @karenattiah.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Today, 8 years ago, my friend, Saudi Journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered.

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Tracy L Cooper 📎 @tracyc.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I think the Indigenous have had enough taken away from them. This is over the top. Remove it!

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Faith Kearns, Ph.D. @fkearns.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Small farms in California have struggled to participate in groundwater management efforts since day one. We talked with Ngodoo Atume @ucanr.edu and Judith Redmond, co-founder of Full Belly Farms, about new work on how to better support these small farms www.watertalkpodcast.com/episodes/epi...

watertalkpodcast.com

Small Farms and Groundwater Policy in CA — Water Talk

A conversation with Ngodoo Atume (University of California Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program) and Judith Redmond (Full Belly Farm) about California's Sustainable Groundwater Manag...

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Terre Logsdon @terreal.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I love that we get these non-partisan voter guides in CA! I did an informal poll of friends I have across the county a decade ago, and there are only 1 or 2 others that do so as well. Would make a huge difference if it was a requirement for all states! (but yeah, this mid-term version is huge!!)

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Gwen C. Katz @gwenckatz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Things Gavin Newsom has vetoed this week: -A ban on secretly recording people with smart glasses -A ban on ICE agents working for the state government -A ban on websites selling your data -A bill giving native tribes more say over water rights -A bill protecting transgender healthcare providers

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Danielle Zoe Rivera @danielle-rivera.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

SB1093 includes language surrounding the following: clarity surrounding when and how landowners must communicate with MH residents, establishes a right to entry following disasters, and clarifies how and when debris clearance and soil testing must happen following disasters.

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Sarah O @erniebufflo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This is why I am always telling y'all you want your raw oysters to be from very cold water, and why I, personally, do not eat Florida/Gulf oysters raw, ever. Warmer water = more bacteria, a problem climate change is exacerbating. Love, your friend the oyster shucker.

people.com

Fifth Person in Florida Dies of Flesh-Eating Bacteria Linked to Raw Seafood

A fifth person in Florida has died of a flesh-eating bacteria commonly linked to eating raw seafood as cases of Vibrio in the state continue to climb.

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Mike Stucka @mikestucka.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

FEMA's new director, previously ousted for saying the agency shouldn't exist, now appears to be saying the agency should have no role in mitigation or recovery. Also, that the Red Cross, power company etc. have no role in emergency operations. eos.org/research-and... w/ @samlmontano.bsky.social

eos.org

A Redefinition of “Emergency Management” Could Upend FEMA’s Mission - Eos

Last week, FEMA administrator Cameron Hamilton issued a memorandum outlining the agency’s scope and essentially redefining “emergency management.”

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The effects of even the strongest El Niño events on the North Pacific storm track, and subsequently California precipitation, will not emerge until November *at the earliest* and possibly not until mid-late December! A wet/very wet winter in CA remains single likeliest outcome.

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maura quint @mauraquint.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yes every woman has been harassed, many assaulted. But every woman has also experienced invisible loss from moments she avoided harassment. She felt a space becoming unsafe, so she left, while men stayed on. And in leaving, she lost: opportunities, experiences, learning, promotions, even simply fun.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In other words: This meme is a surprisingly accurate scaled depiction of the magnitude of the 2026 El Niño event vs the 1997 event *if using the absolute index.* But if using the relative index, Danny DeVito is currently the same height as Arnold Schwarzenegger. And either pairing is striking... 👀

A common meme from the movie "Twins" featuring Arnold Schwarzenegger towering over a similarly dressed Danny Devito modified such that "1997" appears above the diminuitive DeVito, and 2026 above Schwarzenegger.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

On Wed, Sep 30 at 6:30pm PT, I'll be joining a Marin County Council of Mayors & Councilmembers meeting co-hosted by Marin Wildfire, Marin Conservation League, & more to discuss the historic 2026 El Niño & implications for North Bay. Zoom open to public:

us02web.zoom.us

Join our Cloud HD Video Meeting

Zoom is the leader in modern enterprise cloud communications.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I spent the full hour on NPR/@wbur.org's "On Point" in conversation with Meghna Chakrabarti on this year's very strong El Niño event--which is expected reach record intensity by Nov--and the broader context surrounding it, as well as local-to-global impacts.

wbur.org

How the 'super' El Niño will shape the global climate

El Niño has become an annual global climate phenomenon. But this year, scientists are warning of a record-setting 'super' El Niño. What that could mean for the weather everywhere on planet earth.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Recorded live and available below, in case you missed it!

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Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

i hope that men notice how whenever a rape story gets widespread coverage, women use it as an opportunity to vent about how fucking disgusting we think many of you are and how many have made our lives measurably worse, and take a few moments to deeply process that.

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