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Stephen Wolf

@stephenwolf.bsky.social
118K followers 278 following 3.5K posts

Contributor @the-downballot.com. Elections, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.

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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
However, the poll didn’t use the actual ballot language, which can significantly skew ballot measure responses. Maryland’s actual ballot text is on the right
Question 3: Congressional redistricting amendment
Likely voters were asked two questions about Question 3 that used plain-language
descriptions of the proposed change and what a vote for or against the amendment
would do.1
Question wording: This November, Maryland voters will also decide Question 3, a
constitutional amendment on how lawmakers draw congressional district lines.
A vote FOR Question 3 eliminates the state’s requirement that congressional districts be
compact and connected, removing constraints on how state lawmakers can draw
congressional district lines.
A vote AGAINST keeps those requirements in place.2
Do you plan to vote for or against Question 3 this November?Question 3
Constitutional Amendment
For the purpose of clarifying that certain requirements apply only to districts for the election of members of the Senate of Maryland and the House of Delegates; authorizing the General Assembly to grant original jurisdiction to the Supreme Court of Maryland to review the congressional districting plan of the State; and providing that nothing in the Maryland Constitution provides applicable criteria for the boundaries of a congressional districting plan.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Honorable mentions
My9albums. A three-by-three grid shows album covers for the following:

Fragile by Yes.
Who’s Next by The Who.
The Dark Side of the Moon by Pink Floyd.
MTV Unplugged by Alice In Chains.
Siamese Dream by Smashing Pumpkins.
Fashion Nugget by CAKE.
Saxophone Colossus by Sonny Rollins.
Viaticum by Esbjörn Svensson Trio.
The Downward Spiral by Nine Inch Nails.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
These were hard to choose with the same rules and only nine slots www.my9albums.com
My9albums. A three-by-three grid shows album covers for the following:

Kind of Blue by Miles Davis.
Grace by Jeff Buckley.
Red by King Crimson.
Loveless by My Bloody Valentine.
In Absentia by Porcupine Tree.
The Way Up by Pat Metheny Group.
Lateralus by Tool.
From a Basement on the Hill by Elliott Smith.
Wowee Zowee by Pavement.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
New York Times/Siena polls find Dems gaining the governors offices in Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. That would give Dems control over election admin in Alaska and Texas. It’s a sign that Dems could also win for secretary of state in Iowa and Ohio in this environment www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...
Chart of Siena poll results in five governor's races, showing each candidate's estimated support with margin-of-error bars. Democrats lead in Iowa (Sand 52%, Lahn 41%), Alaska (Kreiss-Tomkins 52, Wilson 48), Texas (Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46) and Ohio (Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45). The Republican leads in Kansas (Masterson 49, Holscher 44)
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NEW: The 2026 elections in most states will decide which party runs elections heading into 2028 (see map). We detail how Democrats could hold or gain this power in 14 potentially competitive states—and form a bulwark against MAGA subverting the 2028 elections www.the-downballot.com/p/voters-can...
Map of the United States titled "2026 Elections That Will Decide Which Party Runs Elections," with the subtitle "Includes secretaries of state and other elected offices where relevant." Source: The Downballot. States are colored by incumbent party.

Democratic (blue), 14 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Republican (red), 18 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming.

Bipartisan (yellow), 4 states: Hawaii, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin.
Not up in 2026 (gray), 14 states: Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia.

Footnotes: Illinois and Wisconsin have Democratic secretaries of state who do not run elections. Pennsylvania's Democratic governor appointed a Republican who typically aligns with Democrats.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
All it could take for the national popular vote compact to reach a majority of electoral votes is for Democrats to flip six legislative chambers across Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Electoral College cartogram showing which states are in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and which ones could join in time for it to activate by 2028. Each state is sized and labeled according to its number of electoral votes. The states are spaced out enough to accommodate the changes in size but retain their general shapes and relative positions on the map.

Current members are in solid orange, potential members are in light green, and nonmembers that are unlikely to join are in medium gray. Members have 222 electoral votes, potential members have 68, and the unlikely states have 248. The compact would only activate once states with at least 270 electoral votes have joined.

The seven potential members and their electoral vote are Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). Democrats would need to gain the governor's office and/or legislative chambers to win unified power in these states, as detailed in the spreadsheet linked in this post.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Republicans re-gerrymandering Texas and other Southern legislatures in 2027 was already likely after they killed the Voting Rights Act and normalized mid-decade remaps. But Democrats could block it by winning for Texas House or governor, and a quorum break could block it in a 2026 lame duck session
Screenshot of a post on X by Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot), posted at 12:22 PM on Sep 28, 2026, with 4,292 views. The post reads: "Missed this over the weekend, but a Texas GOP state rep expressed interest in re-redistricting next year."

It quotes a Sep 25 post by Rob Laucius (@RobLauciusTX, verified), replying to @RobLauciusTX, @realmitchlittle, and 7 others. The quoted post reads: "Little says he has heard rumors of redistricting the Texas House and Senate. Leach says @GeneforTexas has expressed interest in doing so if Democrats win, says …" The quoted text is cut off at that point.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“You know what the trouble is, Bruce? HBO used to make great s*** in this country. Build s***”
Frank Sobotka from The Wire from the scene where he says “We used to make shit in this country; build shit.”
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
My top 10 TV favorites of the 21st century. Pick your own (🎁 link): www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Screenshot of a New York Times "The 100 Best TV Shows of the 21st Century" page titled "My Top Shows," showing ten poster thumbnails on a light blue background. The shows listed are Avatar: The Last Airbender, The Legend of Korra, The Wire, Game of Thrones, Counterpart, Babylon Berlin, The Leftovers, Westworld, Chernobyl, and Treme.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I looked at this when Trump tried to weaponize the 2020 census. TX Dems won seats more efficiently with a smaller vote margin divided by total population. Drawing maps based on adult citizens would expand those seats to waste more D votes even without gerrymandering www.dailykos.com/stories/2019...
Daily Kos Elections scatter plot titled "Effect of CVAP* Ratio on Presidential Margins in Texas Nonpartisan Districts," where CVAP is citizen voting age population. The horizontal axis shows each district's citizen voting age population as a share of total population, ranging from 40% to 80%. The vertical axis shows Clinton's 2016 margin in the district, from -80 to +80.

Blue dots mark districts Clinton won; red dots mark districts Trump won. The relationship is strongly negative: districts with lower citizen voting age population shares are the ones Clinton carried, and they cluster on the left side of the chart, spanning roughly 45% to 68% CVAP. Trump districts cluster on the right, roughly 59% to 76% CVAP. A blue dashed line marks the Clinton district average of 58% CVAP; a red dashed line marks the Trump district average of 68%.

Clinton's strongest districts, with margins around +40 to +50, sit mostly between 45% and 62% CVAP. Trump's largest margins, around -45 to -62, fall almost entirely above 68% CVAP.

The pattern means Democratic districts contain fewer eligible voters per resident, so Democrats win them with smaller raw vote totals. Their votes are therefore spread more efficiently across the map rather than piling up in a few high-turnout districts.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Good idea. How about this
Hypothetical Missouri 2nd District map
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Blocking the new GOP gerrymander also keeps Missouri’s 2nd District potentially within reach for Dems in a big wave election. But it’s still quite gerrymandered—without that, it would have been a blue-trending swing district like this one that Dems would have been well-positioned to win this cycle
Hypothetical nonpartisan Missouri congressional map by 2024 presidential result. The 2nd District would be a compact seat located fully in the St. Louis suburbs that voted narrowly for Kamala Harris in 2024 and Donald Trump in 2020.Chart of election results for District 2:

President 2024:
Democratic	49.5%
Republican	48.7%

Senator 2024:
Democratic	51.3%
Republican	46.3%

President 2020:
Democratic	48.9%
Republican	49.4%
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Oh hell yeah. Random facts mode was much more fun too
Results
You earned 16,206 points over 20 voters, an average of 810 per voter. You beat the model. Ultimate mode: three random facts per voter, no hints.

Average points
Total
You
810
16,206
Model using all demographics
801
16,014
Always guessing
42%
768
15,353
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I came close to beating it on hard mode, but then getting a 30s-40s white guy is like playing minesweeper when it drops atheist/agnostic on you after the reveal
Results
You earned 15,404 points over 20 voters, an average of 770 per voter. The model beat you, but you beat the base rate. Hard mode: no hints.

Average points	Total
You	770	15,404
Model using all demographics	792	15,836
Always guessing 42%	744	14,870
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Texas Senate polls never looked this good for Democrats in 2018 fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate...
Screenshot from Fifty Plus One showing a polling average for the Texas General Senate Election. Tabs above the chart offer General, Republican Primary, Democratic Primary, and Nonpartisan views, with "General" selected and a dropdown set to Texas.

The current average, as of August 27, shows Talarico +3, with Talarico at 46.8% and Paxton at 44.3%.

The line chart plots both candidates over time on a vertical axis running from about 40% to 55%, with shaded confidence bands around each line. Talarico's blue line starts near 44%, rises to about 45%, and after a dip stays in the mid-40s before climbing to roughly 47% at the end. Paxton's red line tracks close to Talarico's early on, briefly leading around 45.5%, then falls sharply to about 39% mid-chart before recovering into the mid-40s. The two lines converge near the end, with Talarico slightly ahead. The bands overlap through much of the period, though they separate somewhat in the later stretch.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The Washington Post captioning this story with the impact of a 𝘙𝘦𝘱𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯 gerrymander in Florida is a choice. I’ve shown how Democrats don’t need to dismantle Black districts to target several Republicans across states such as Illinois, Maryland, and New York: www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...
Screenshot of Washington post headline and header image:

Headine: Democrats want to draw more safe House seats. It could cost Black lawmakers.
Subheader: In their bid to counter GOP redistricting, Democrats debate breaking up Black-held districts.

The image shows Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a white Democrat who won a primary in a heavily Black district after Republicans gerrymandered her district, the antithesis of the article’s subject.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Oklahoma's voter ID constitutional amendment passed Tuesday but widely underperformed the GOP baseline. It won by 9 points despite a 74-26 GOP turnout in the closed primary runoff. Total registration is 53-25-22 Rep-Dem-other. (Voter ID is already required by statute.) www.koco.com/article/okla...
Map of election results by county for Oklahoma’s August 25, 2026 referendum to enshrine the existing voter identification requirement in the state constitution. The measure passed 54.6% to 45.4% and passed in all but four counties, but support ran far behind typical Republican vote shares.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Wow: Oklahoma's voter ID constitutional amendment passed but hugely underperformed the GOP baseline. It leads just 55-45 with 94% counted. Primary runoff turnout is around 3:1 GOP. Their registration edge is roughly 2:1, so a lot of Republicans voted no. (Voter ID is already required by statute.)
Map of Oklahoma's voter ID constitutional amendment referendum by county. The measure passed and leads 55-45 with 94% counted. All but four counties passed it.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Linda McMahon: Isn’t it great that human students get their subjects fed to them by AI?
Scene from the Matrix where Neo first wakes up to reality and sees the endless field of pods where humans plugged into the Matrix are fed nutrients so their bodies can power the machines.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
A good start. Time to fix the Supreme Court entries next, starting with John Roberts. “Though primarily an institutionalist, he has been described as having a moderate conservative judicial philosophy.” 🤬
Wikipedia page intro for Supreme Court chief justice John Roberts. The first paragraph says:
“John Glover Roberts Jr. (born January 27, 1955) is an American jurist who has served since 2005 as the 17th chief justice of the United States. Though primarily an institutionalist, he has been described as having a moderate conservative judicial philosophy.[3][4] Regarded as a swing vote in some cases,[5] Roberts has presided over an ideological shift toward conservative jurisprudence on the high court, in which he has authored key opinions.[6][7]”
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Missouri SoS Denny Hoskins refused to certify a ballot measure to protect the initiative/referendum process from subversion—in addition to blocking a referendum on the new GOP gerrymander. Supporters will sue—if both made the ballot and passed, the GOP could be unable to re-pass their map in 2027
Their plan, spearheaded by a group called Respect Missouri Voters, would amend the state constitution to make the ability to bring initiatives and referendums a “fundamental right” and bar lawmakers from weakening either of these powers.

It would further prevent the legislature from repealing or modifying laws passed by initiative, or repassing laws rejected via referendum, unless a four-fifths supermajority in both chambers agrees.

In addition, it would enshrine the current requirements for the signatures necessary to place a measure on the ballot and would also affirm that only a simple statewide majority is required to approve an initiative or referendum. Lastly, it would allow the courts to rewrite misleading summary statements drafted by elected officials.

Republicans in Missouri have long sought to tamper with the initiative process to [image cuts off]
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The change in responses over time is telling us something with this question, but precisely what? Gerrymandering and the VRA’s demise have received unprecedented media coverage this cycle, and there’s no way to disentangle thinking that’s unfair from thinking Trump will somehow throw out votes 🤷‍♂️
Pew Research Center stacked bar chart titled "Confidence in the fairness and accuracy of elections is lower than in past years, but with no partisan gap." Subtitle: percent who are blank confident that the elections this November will be conducted fairly and accurately. Each bar stacks "very" confident (dark gold, bottom) and "somewhat" confident (light gold, top), with the net total labeled above. Three panels show Total, Republicans and Republican leaners, and Democrats and Democratic leaners, each across four survey dates.

Total: April 2020, net 59 (14 very, 45 somewhat); August 2022, net 64 (25, 39); July 2024, net 61 (24, 37); July 2026, net 55 (15, 40).

Republican/lean Republican: April 2020, net 75 (20 very, 55 somewhat); August 2022, net 46 (12, 34); July 2024, net 47 (11, 36); July 2026, net 55 (13, 42).

Democrat/lean Democrat: April 2020, net 46 (9 very, 37 somewhat); August 2022, net 81 (37, 43); July 2024, net 77 (39, 38); July 2026, net 58 (18, 39).

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted July 6–12, 2026.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Kansas is the only red state where Democratic appointees are a majority on the state Supreme Court, and it will stay that way for years to come after voters rejected this GOP power grab in a landslide. Kansas voters have repeatedly rejected Republican attempts to ban abortion since the Dobbs ruling
New York Times election results graphic for Kansas's Amendment 1. Explanatory text notes the measure, introduced by Republicans frustrated by the appointed court's support of abortion rights, seeks to overhaul how Kansas Supreme Court justices are selected. If passed, the seven justices would no longer be appointed by the governor and would instead be elected to six-year terms.

Latest results from 6:01 AM ET, with more than 95% of votes in, from AP. "No" is marked with a check as the winner, with 375,355 votes, or 61.3%. "Yes" has 236,800 votes, or 38.7%. Total reported: 612,155.

Below, a county map of Kansas shades results from teal for Yes to orange for No, with the darkest shades indicating margins of 70% or more. Topeka and Wichita are labeled. The map is closely divided county by county, with teal and orange counties interspersed across the state; most shading on both sides is in the lighter, roughly 60-percent range. Teal predominates somewhat in the western half. The darkest orange counties, at 70% or more for No, cluster in the northeast around and east of Topeka. Sedgwick County, containing Wichita, is shaded orange.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Missouri Republicans tried to make voter-initiated constitutional amendments impossible by requiring passage in every congressional district instead of just statewide. Voters rejected the amendment in not just every congressional district but every county too. Trump won all but four counties there
New York Times election results graphic for Missouri's Amendment 4. "No" is marked with a check as the winner, with 1,123,264 votes, or 80.3%. "Yes" has 275,157 votes, or 19.7%. Total reported: 1,398,421.

Below, a county map of Missouri shades results from teal for Yes to orange for No, with the darkest shades indicating margins of 70% or more. Kansas City, Columbia, St. Louis, and Springfield are labeled. Every county is shaded orange for No, and no county is teal. The great majority are at the darkest orange level of 70% or more, including all counties around Kansas City, Columbia, St. Louis, and Springfield. A cluster of lighter-orange counties in the 60-percent range appears in the northeast, with a few scattered lighter counties in the south-central and southeastern parts of the state.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Missouri Republicans' Amendment 4 is getting trounced not just in every congressional district but in every *county* so far. Trump won all but four counties in Missouri.
Screenshot of a New York Times 2026 election results page titled "Missouri Amendment 4 Election Results: Modify Amendment Approval Requirements." A description notes the measure, proposed by the Republican-led legislature, would require citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to win in each of the state's eight congressional districts rather than by a simple statewide majority.

With 23% of votes in (AP data), "No" leads with 277,388 votes, or 81.1%, and is marked with a check indicating it is winning. "Yes" has 64,711 votes, or 18.9%. Total reported: 342,099.

A "Results by county" table lists: St. Louis County, 85% No / 15% Yes, 82,026 total votes, 30% in; St. Charles, 79/21, 30,809, 20% in; Platte, 80/20, 18,648, 77% in; Buchanan, 82/18, 15,852, more than 95% in; St. Louis City, 90/10, 15,826, 22% in; Clay, 82/18, 15,613, 21% in.

At right, a map of Missouri shades counties by result, with Kansas City, Columbia, St. Louis, and Springfield labeled. Reporting counties are shaded orange for No, most at the darkest shade of 70% or more; no counties are shaded teal for Yes. Counties without results are gray, covering much of the state.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Dems could redraw these House maps for 2028: MD: On 2026 ballot. NY: Passed part 1 of multi-year plan. VA: Could reverse 2026 court ruling. IL: Considering. NJ: Reportedly unlikely. MN, OR, WI: May depend on 2026 elections. A court could redraw WI instead www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...
Map of states where Democrats may have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps by 2028 to target seats currently held by Republicans. They could target Republicans in:

Illinois: 1
Maryland: 1
Minnesota: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York: 4
Oregon: 1
Virginia: 4
Wisconsin: 3
Total: 18
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
NEW: Maryland Democrats just passed a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2028 in response to Republican gerrymanders elsewhere. If voters pass it in November, Democrats could enact a map like this earlier proposal to target the lone Republican, Andy Harris
Graphic of a proposed 8-0 Democratic Maryland congressional map passed by state House Democrats as House Bill 488.

The districts are colored various shades of blue depending on the size of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential margin of victory, with darker colors representing bigger margins. An accompanying chart includes the presidential results and each district's racial demographics for the adult population.

All seven Democratic incumbents would be in districts that Harris won by at least 10.7 points, with 3rd District Democratic Rep. Sarah Elfreth likely running in the revised 1st District currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris. The potentially open 3rd District favored Harris by 8.6 points. The 4th and 7th districts would remain majority-Black while the open 5th District would shift from plurality-white to plurality-Black.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Some New Jersey Democrats still don’t get what’s at stake with Trump and Republicans pushing extreme gerrymanders on the whole country. Unilaterally disarming won’t save democracy when gerrymandering requires a national solution
“New Jersey wins elections the old-fashioned way: We earn it,” said Democratic state Sen. Andrew Zwicker, showing his age by doing his best impression of actor John Houseman in 1980s ads for Smith Barney.
And Rutgers Law School professor Ronald Chen, who’s been involved in congressional and state legislative redistricting, said he doesn’t think gerrymandering is a good way to advance his own progressive politics. Chen was counsel to redistricting tiebreaker John Farmer Jr. in 2011, when Farmer chose a Republican-drawn map that put two Democratic incumbents together and led to the 2012 election of an evenly split House delegation. Six years later, under that same map, the delegation went 11-1 in Democrats’ favor.
“It just goes to show with a little bit of patience, things will work out,” Chen said. “Once you change it, the temptation will be to tinker again. And then, eventually, even in New Jersey, the other party will get into control of the Legislature and all bets are off.”
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Maryland Democrats are expected to pass their amendment next week. If voters approve it this fall, Democrats could redraw the congressional map to target the last Republican, Rep. Andy Harris. A new map could look similar to the one below that Dems unsuccessfully tried to pass earlier this year
Graphic of a proposed 8-0 Democratic Maryland congressional map passed by state House Democrats as House Bill 488.

The districts are colored various shades of blue depending on the size of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential margin of victory, with darker colors representing bigger margins. An accompanying chart includes the presidential results and each district's racial demographics for the adult population.

All seven Democratic incumbents would be in districts that Harris won by at least 10.7 points, with 3rd District Democratic Rep. Sarah Elfreth likely running in the revised 1st District currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris. The potentially open 3rd District favored Harris by 8.6 points. The 4th and 7th districts would remain majority-Black while the open 5th District would shift from plurality-white to plurality-Black.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
In North Carolina’s Supreme Court election, Democratic Justice Anita Earls has an enormous fundraising advantage over Republican challenger Sarah Stevens www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
NC Supreme Court

Democratic Justice Anita Earls continues to enjoy a staggering financial advantage over Republican challenger Sarah Stevens in an important race for the North Carolina Supreme Court, newly released campaign fundraising reports show.

Earls, who is seeking a second eight-year term, hauled in about $1.9 million from Feb. 15 to June 30 and ended this four-and-a-half-month period with $3.5 million banked. Stevens, who resigned from the state House last month to focus on her campaign, took in just over $90,000 and had a little less than $260,000 on hand.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
They are www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
MT-Sen

In an unusual public statement, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it would not support Democrat Alani Bankhead’s campaign for Senate in Montana after Bankhead slammed the committee in an op-ed.

Earlier this month, Bankhead decried “the absolute lack of support or even encouragement from my national Democratic colleagues” at the DSCC in a guest essay at the Flathead Beacon.

In response, the group’s executive director, Devan Barber, told Semafor that “the DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”

Some Montana Democrats, most notably former Sen. Jon Tester, have called for the
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The path for Trump was paved by Nixon in more ways than one
A picture of Richard Nixon with a quote from during his 1960 presidential campaign: “I always remember that whatever I have done in the past or may do in the future, Duke University is responsible in one way or another.”
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Republicans will re-gerrymander more maps for 2028 and could make the House nearly unwinnable for Dems as shown on this chart of potential map scenarios. However, Dems could counteract them by redrawing these 8 states, which we examined with hypothetical maps: www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...
Table titled "Median Congressional District Comparison: Democratic-minus-Republican Presidential Margin," from The Downballot. For each redistricting scenario, columns show the median district, presidential margin, and number of seats carried by the Democratic nominee out of 435 total. Calculations separately show the the 2024 and 2020 presidential results.

National Popular Vote: 2024 margin -1.5 (R+1.5); 2020 margin +4.5 (D+4.5).

2022 Actual Map: median district CA-40; 2024 margin -2.3, 207 seats won; 2020 median MI-08, margin +2.0, 226 seats won.

2024 Actual Map: median AZ-01; 2024 margin -3.1, 205 seats; 2020 median VA-02, margin +1.9, 224 seats.

2026 Actual Map: median VA-01; 2024 margin -4.9, 200 seats; 2020 median AZ-06, margin +0.1, 218 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New GOP maps only: median ME-02; 2024 margin -9.1, 192 seats; 2020 median IA-01, margin -2.9, 208 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maximalist GOP maps only: median FL-22; 2024 margin -10.3, 185 seats; 2020 median IN-01, margin -4.4, 201 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maps from both parties: median OH-01; 2024 margin -2.6, 210 seats; 2020 median AZ-01, margin +1.5, 222 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maps from both, maximalist GOP: median MI-10; 2024 margin -6.5, 203 seats; 2020 median MI-10, margin -1.0, 215 seats.

2028 Potential Map, New maximalist maps from both parties: median PA-07; 2024 margin -3.2, 208 seats; 2020 median MI-07, margin +0.5, 220 seats.Map of states where Democrats may have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps by 2028 to target seats currently held by Republicans. They could target Republicans in:

Illinois: 1
Maryland: 1
Minnesota: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York: 4
Oregon: 1
Virginia: 4
Wisconsin: 3
Total: 18
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
This map shows the partisan intent behind congressional redistricting in every state for 2026. Republicans drew 44% of seats to Democrats’ 26%. That gap is narrower than in 2024 thanks to CA Dems, but the 2026 map is more pro-GOP in effect because they passed more extreme maps in several red states
A cartogram from The Downballot showing the partisan intent behind 2026 congressional redistricting in every state. States retain their general shapes and relative locations on the map, but they are sized according to how many congressional seats they have and are spread out from each other accordingly.

26% of districts are in blue-colored states drawn to favor Democrats.
44% of districts are in red-colored states drawn to favor Republicans.
29% of districts are in yellow-colored states drawn by neutral parties.
1% of districts are in gray-colored states with only a single district each.

Each state by seat count and favored party:
Alabama: 7 - Republican
Alaska: 1 - One Seat
Arizona: 9 - Neutral
Arkansas: 4 - Republican
California: 52 - Democratic
Colorado: 8 - Neutral
Connecticut: 5 - Neutral
Delaware: 1 - One Seat
Florida: 28 - Republican
Georgia: 14 - Republican
Hawaii: 2 - Neutral
Idaho: 2 - Neutral
Illinois: 17 - Democratic
Indiana: 9 - Republican
Iowa: 4 - Neutral
Kansas: 4 - Republican
Kentucky: 6 - Republican
Louisiana: 6 - Republican
Maine: 2 - Neutral
Maryland: 8 - Democratic
Massachusetts: 9 - Democratic
Michigan: 13 - Neutral
Minnesota: 8 - Neutral
Mississippi: 4 - Republican
Missouri: 8 - Republican
Montana: 2 - Neutral
Nebraska: 3 - Republican
Nevada: 4 - Democratic
New Hampshire: 2 - Neutral
New Jersey: 12 - Democratic
New Mexico: 3 - Democratic
New York: 26 - Neutral
North Carolina: 14 - Republican
North Dakota: 1 - One Seat
Ohio: 15 - Republican
Oklahoma: 5 - Republican
Oregon: 6 - Democratic
Pennsylvania: 17 - Neutral
Rhode Island: 2 - Democratic
South Carolina: 7 - Republican
South Dakota: 1 - One Seat
Tennessee: 9 - Republican
Texas: 38 - Republican
Utah: 4 - Neutral
Vermont: 1 - One Seat
Virginia: 11 - Neutral
Washington: 10 - Neutral
West Virginia: 2 - Republican
Wisconsin: 8 - Republican
Wyoming: 1 - One Seat
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
At Trump’s urging & with the Supreme Court’s blessing, Republicans re-gerrymandered 8 states to target 16 Dems. 11 targets hold VRA seats, are Black or Latino, or both. CA Dems targeted 5 Rs in response, but a court blocked VA Dems from targeting 4. A UT court replaced a GOP map with a fairer one
Map showing which states redrew their congressional maps in 2026 and how many members of each party were targeted.

Republicans targeted 16 Democrats in:
Alabama: 1
Florida: 4
Louisiana: 1
Missouri: 1
North Carolina: 1
Ohio: 2
Tennessee: 1
Texas: 5

11 of the targeted Democrats are Black or Latino, hold Voting Rights Act-protected districts, or both.

Democrats responded to the initial Texas gerrymander by targeting 5 Republicans in California, but Virginia's Supreme Court overruled a new map that targeted 4 Republicans there.

In Utah, a court replaced a Republican gerrymander with a fairer map where Democrats will likely gain one seat.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Thanks to Republican gerrymandering, Trump almost would have won a majority of the new 2026 districts in *2020* when he lost the popular vote by 4.5 points. Biden would have won just a 218-217 majority and the median seat (AZ-06) by 0.1 points, down from 224-11 and 1.9 points (VA-02) on the old map
Map of the 2020 presidential election result margin by congressional district for the 2026 map. Red districts would have voted for Donald Trump and blue districts for Joe Biden. Darker shades represent larger margins in increments of 10 percentage points.

Biden would have won a 218-to-217 majority of districts and carried the median district by 0.1 points, placing it 4.4 points to the right of his national margin of 4.5 points.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
NEW 🧵: We mapped our 2024 presidential election data by congressional district for the 2026 map. Due to new GOP gerrymanders, the median seat went from AZ-01 at Trump+3.1 on the 2024 map to VA-01 at Trump+4.9, 3.5 points to the right of the country. Trump won a 235-200 majority, up by 5 from 2024
Map of the 2024 presidential election result margin by congressional district for the 2026 map. Red districts would have voted for Donald Trump and blue districts for Kamala Harris. Darker shades represent larger margins in increments of 10 percentage points.

Trump would have won a 235-to-200 majority of districts and carried the median district by 4.9 points, placing it 3.5 points to the right of his national margin of 1.5 points after rounding.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Maryland Democrats are moving forward with redrawing their congressional map for 2028 to target the state’s lone Republican in response to GOP gerrymanders elsewhere. If voters approve a constitutional amendment in November, Dems could enact their earlier proposal for this 8-0 map or one like it
Graphic of a proposed 8-0 Democratic Maryland congressional map passed by state House Democrats as House Bill 488.

The districts are colored various shades of blue depending on the size of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential margin of victory, with darker colors representing bigger margins. An accompanying chart includes the presidential results and each district's racial demographics for the adult population.

All seven Democratic incumbents would be in districts that Harris won by at least 10.7 points, with 3rd District Democratic Rep. Sarah Elfreth likely running in the revised 1st District currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris. The potentially open 3rd District favored Harris by 8.6 points. The 4th and 7th districts would remain majority-Black while the open 5th District would shift from plurality-white to plurality-Black.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Finally nailed it on the fourth try
New York Times dialect quiz result map. The most similar is North Carolina and Virginia, with some similarity with the broader Northeastern and Southeastern United States. The least similar is the Midwest and northwest.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
With nearly all votes in, Sen. John Hickenlooper won his primary just 53-47. This got far less attention than the left’s outright wins, but it’s historically bad for an incumbent. Only two Dem senators since 1972 have lost renomination to challengers to their left, & he massively outspent Gonzales
New York Times election results summary for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales by just 53-47 with nearly all votes counted.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
“… to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, —That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government …”
In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
The Declaration of Independence specifies 27 grievances with King George III and Britain. Donald Trump and his regime have committed at least 20 of those same offenses highlighted in yellow. Happy 250, America!
An image of a list of the 27 grievances against King George III in the Declaration of Independence. Donald Trump's regime has committed at least 20 of them in whole or in part, condensed into the list below:
1.	He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
2.	He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation …
3.	He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing … his invasions on the rights of the people.
4.	He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; … obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners …
5.	He has obstructed the Administration of Justice …
6.	He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices …
7.	He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
8.	He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
9.	He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
10.	He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution … giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
11.	For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
12.	For protecting them … from punishment for any Murders which they should commit …
13.	For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
14.	For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
15.	For depriving us … of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
16.	For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:
17.	For … abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
18.	He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
19.	He has … destroyed the lives of our people.
20.	He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us …
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Sen. John Hickenlooper’s primary margin is down to 7 points with roughly 92% of votes in. It was 15 last night. That’s very weak given his massive spending advantage over Gonzales and his longtime prominence in Colorado politics. One has to wonder if progressive groups missed a major opportunity
New York Times election results for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales and leads by 53.6% to 46.4% with an estimated 92% of votes reported.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Hickenlooper’s lead has shrunk to just 55-45 as late-counted ballots in Colorado typically favor progressives. Gonzales kept it impressively close for a challenger who got into the race late and faced a massive spending disadvantage against a senator and former governor who had history on his side
New York Times election results for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales and leads 55-45 with an estimated 88% of votes reported.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Colorado Sen. John Hickenlooper holds off progressive Julie Gonzales, but a 57-43 margin is historically weak for an incumbent and former two-term governor. Since 1972, only 2 senators who had been elected as Democrats lost primaries to challengers clearly to their left. Those were in 2006 and 1992
New York Times election results for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales and leads 57-43 with an estimated 77% of votes reported.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Colorado’s Supreme Court has blocked Dems’ 2026 attempt to pass this 7-1 congressional map for 2028 and target 3 GOP seats. Now the soonest they could redraw the map is 2030. Dems could try another initiative or, if they gain 2/3 majorities this year, put an amendment directly on the ballot in 2028
Image of Colorado Democrats’ proposed 7-1 congressional map. An embedded chart displays the 2024 presidential election results and adult racial demographics for each district.

The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner's margin, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The districts are shaded by margin with darker colors representing larger margins. Harris won 7 of the districts by varying margins while Trump won a single dark-red district in eastern Colorado.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Due to Colorado’s single-subject limit, Dems are backing two ballot initiatives: One to allow mid-decade redistricting, and one to adopt this 7-1 map targeting 3 GOP seats. But the GOP argues they still violate the one-subject limit because each would go into effect only if the other also passed
Image of Colorado Democrats’ proposed 7-1 congressional map. An embedded chart displays the 2024 presidential election results and adult racial demographics for each district.

The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner's margin, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The districts are shaded by margin with darker colors representing larger margins. Harris won 7 of the districts by varying margins while Trump won a single dark-red district in eastern Colorado.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
@davesredist.bsky.social has launched a major update to its UI, with new and improved features for drawing, analyzing, and visualizing redistricting maps. One of those new features enables drawing maps on mobile devices (depending on their capabilities). Check it out here: davesredistricting.org
Introducing our New User Experience
We've been working on a new modern look and streamlined workflow for Dave's Redistricting. This new version supports all the old features you are familiar with, plus it adds some new features for building and drawing maps.

[Image of the website’s new dashboard page, which shows a U.S. state map and menu bars along the top and left sides of the page.]

When you open DRA 2020, look for About New UI on the top bar. You can try out the new UI and switch back and forth easily; when you switch you'll stay on the same page and all your maps, datasets and layers will be there in both.Key features and improvements of the new UI:
* Cleaner look.
* Improved navigation.
* Much improved layout and experience on phones and tablets.
* Touch painting works on mobile devices.
* Support for dark mode.
* Customization of precinct, district, city and county line styles.
* Search and pin districts in the Districts overview panel.
* Color county and city aggregates by partisan lean and demographics.
* Customization of district label size, color and position.

Be sure to check out the tours (flag in upper right) of My Maps and Map View!
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
New Republican gerrymanders in 2026 moved the median House seat from Trump+3.1 to Trump+4.9, and they plan to redraw more maps in 2028. The GOP could make the median Trump+9.1 or worse, but if Dems respond in these states, they could cut the GOP’s advantage to less than it was in 2026 or even 2024
Table titled "Median Congressional District Comparison: Democratic-minus-Republican Presidential Margin," from The Down Ballot. It compares seven redistricting scenarios across two sets of columns: 2024 presidential results and 2020 presidential results. Each set shows the median district's Democratic-minus-Republican margin and the number of congressional districts won by the Democratic presidential candidate. Cells with Republican-favoring margins are shaded pink, with deeper shading for larger margins; cells with Democratic-favoring margins are shaded light blue.

The national popular vote’s Democratic margin was −1.5 in 2024 and +4.5 in 2020.

For each scenario, the median district margin and how many districts the Democratic presidential nominee won are as follows:
2024 actual map: −3.1 margin; 205 districts won in 2024 / +1.9 margin; 224 districts won in 20202026 actual map: −4.9 margin; 200 districts won in 2024 / +0.1 margin; 218 districts won in 20202028 new GOP maps only: −9.1 margin; 192 districts won in 2024 / −2.9 margin; 208 districts won in 20202028 maximalist GOP maps only: −10.5 margin; 185 districts won in 2024 / −4.4 margin; 201 districts won in 20202028 new maps from both parties: −1.8 margin; 213 districts won in 2024 / +2.9 margin; 224 districts won in 20202028 new maps from both, maximalist GOP: −5.2 margin; 206 districts won in 2024 / −0.2 margin; 217 districts won in 20202028 new maximalist maps from both parties: −2.6 margin; 211 districts won in 2024 / +1.5 margin; 222 districts won in 2020
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
This borders on a straw man and conflates the maps’ impact with going from a lean-GOP year to a strong-Dem one. The relevant comparison isn’t how many seats were competitive in 2024 but how many would have been in 2026 without new maps. The GOP’s main goal is electing more Rs, and it likely will
It is possible that the enthusiasts will be vindicated, and Republicans will win every “safe” seat they have created, but there are good reasons to be skeptical of the claim that the recent aggressive gerrymanders will reduce the number of competitive districts in 2026. In fact, in the 6 states conducting mid-decade redistricting, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeted only 3 seats in 2024 but is now targeting 13.

The aspiration of aggressive gerrymandering is to eliminate competitive districts, but this can be difficult to achieve in practice. Despite intense polarization, vote choice and turnout are still volatile in some slices of the electorate, and large swings are still possible. Past statewide results are sometimes surprisingly poor predictors of outcomes in congressional races.
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