Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 12hThese were hard to choose with the same rules and only nine slots www.my9albums.com 450
Reposted by Stephen WolfStephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19hIf Dems flip executive offices in GOP states, expect lame duck legislatures to strip what powers they can before Dems take over. They did it in NC, MI, WI, and KY last decade. Iowa’s GOP 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 did it in 2026, expecting a loss for governor. But in Texas, Dems could block it by denying a 2/3 quorum 25815
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19hIf Dems flip executive offices in GOP states, expect lame duck legislatures to strip what powers they can before Dems take over. They did it in NC, MI, WI, and KY last decade. Iowa’s GOP 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 did it in 2026, expecting a loss for governor. But in Texas, Dems could block it by denying a 2/3 quorum 25815
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19hThey may try, but Dems can use the 2/3 quorum requirement to block legislation in the lame duck 140
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19hIf Ohio Democrats flip the governor’s and secretary of state’s offices (or gov+auditor) and held both of them in 2030, they could outright control redistricting for 2032-2034 1281
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19hDemocrats beating Texas Gov. Greg Abbott would also let them block new 2028 gerrymanders in Republicans’ biggest state, which could save several House seats and many legislative seats. I’m skeptical he loses—he narrowly leads most polls—but this is the best Texas has looked for Dems since the 1990s 2352
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 19hNew York Times/Siena polls find Dems gaining the governors offices in Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. That would give Dems control over election admin in Alaska and Texas. It’s a sign that Dems could also win for secretary of state in Iowa and Ohio in this environment www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u... 924960
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 21hWould it be accurate to classify National Alliance, Sovereign Power, and Alliance of Young Latvians as radical-right along with Latvia First? 100
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I was just responding to your point 1, which implied Collins wouldn’t want his endorsement. I don’t think this strategy will be effective since Trump/Republican approval is much lower than in 2018, especially without an actual vacancy driving constant news coverage, but his intent seems very clear 000
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 03/10/2026No one said anything about Alito endorsing anyone. He’s trying to make SCOTUS vacancies more salient in states where Trump comfortably won. Some Republicans think the fight over Kavanaugh helped them win states like Indiana and Missouri in 2018. Whether it actually would work is another matter 100
Reposted by Stephen WolfJames Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Agree with all of the below, with this distinction: -Alito is the most *predictably* partisan-R member of the court. -Roberts is the most *consequentially* partisan-R member. 12613128
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 03/10/20261) Alito revealing this now is an attempt to rally Republicans in Trump states where Dems lead for Senate. 2) He’s the most partisan R on the court—highly likely he steps down in the lame duck if Dems take the Senate. 3) Doing number 2) makes court expansion even more likely if Dems win in 2028 44812231
Reposted by Stephen WolfStephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026NEW: The 2026 elections in most states will decide which party runs elections heading into 2028 (see map). We detail how Democrats could hold or gain this power in 14 potentially competitive states—and form a bulwark against MAGA subverting the 2028 elections www.the-downballot.com/p/voters-can... 8365136
Reposted by Stephen WolfDaniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 02/10/2026There's a record 44 Republican-held open House seats this cycle. Half are because the incumbent is running for a different office or seat. The previous high point was 41 in 2018. docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 1386
Reposted by Stephen WolfMark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 02/10/2026One simple way that you know the United States is not a full democracy & has experienced significant democratic backsliding is that, in actual democracies, it does not matter "which party runs elections" heading into the next one. "Democracy is a system in which parties lose elections" 413461
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Since the 1974 Watergate landslide, North Carolina Democrats’ biggest win for Senate was 8.5 points in the 2008 wave. Republicans’ biggest *ever* was 11.8 points in the 2010 GOP wave. Will Roy Cooper exceed one or both of those margins this year? @fiftyplusone.news’ average is currently Cooper+10 0192
Reposted by Stephen WolfDominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Writing something where I will be liberally citing @lilymasonphd.bsky.social's latest and realizing that I can't cite every single thing I would like to because then I'm just reprinting her work. So, I've gotta thread about it instead. muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl... 8874281
Reposted by Stephen WolfChris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 02/10/2026This is an important element of the 2026 elections, and I'm glad to see @stephenwolf.bsky.social and @the-downballot.com looking at it systemically. 317743
Reposted by Stephen WolfThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 02/10/2026A fantastic graphic from @donnermaps.bsky.social merging two sets of data from AdImpact. The lighter-colored bars show the GOP's advantage in ad *spending* in key Senate races. The darker bars show its advantage in the number of ads actually aired. The latter is considerably lower in most races. 38926
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Wisconsin is notable here: It had an independent election agency before Republicans replaced it with a bipartisan board prone to gridlock—letting them end an investigation into Gov. Scott Walker’s alleged campaign finance violations. Dems could reform that system if they gain full power next month 08215
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026America holds the absurd distinction of using partisan elections to decide which party runs its elections—in most democracies, independent professional agencies fill this role. But until Congress or states pass reforms to change that, Dems winning these offices is key to preserving free elections 19722
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Democrats hold 4 states worth watching: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada. Dems could flip 10 Republican-run states: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas. Many of these may be presidential swing states or have key downballot races in 2028 110019
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Most states directly elect a secretary of state who runs elections. In others, officials like governors or legislators appoint the secretary or an elections board. Several states use a hybrid where a secretary and board share powers, while a few elect a secretary of state who doesn’t run elections 1556
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026NEW: The 2026 elections in most states will decide which party runs elections heading into 2028 (see map). We detail how Democrats could hold or gain this power in 14 potentially competitive states—and form a bulwark against MAGA subverting the 2028 elections www.the-downballot.com/p/voters-can... 8365136
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Counterpart The OA The Knick Mindhunter Rome Counterpart season 3 running in early 2020 would have been some coincidence of timing for a certain plot line 3101
Reposted by Stephen WolfAnna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 01/10/2026NEW: The Georgia State Election board is requesting Justice Department "intervention" ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The board sent request letters to Todd Blanche, Harmeet Dhillon, and DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. Docs obtained by @lawfaremedia.org: www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...documentcloud.orgFormal Request for DOJ Intervention to Todd Blanche 1421179596
Reposted by Stephen Wolfstevelevitsky.bsky.social @stevelevitsky.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Lucan Way and I have been writing about competitive authoritarianism for more than 25 years. We never thought we'd write this piece. www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/com...journalofdemocracy.orgCompetitive Authoritarianism in America | Journal of DemocracyThe United States has slid into competitive authoritarianism. The slide has been modest and remains reversible—but it is real. Even after Donald Trump, American democracy will remain fragile. 8544288
Reposted by Stephen WolfJennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Better link here ICYMI---this is huge. Making state and federal campaign finance data accessible from the same portal has been a project years in the making. Congrats, @opensecrets.org! What a service! www.opensecrets.org/state-profilesopensecrets.orgState Profiles: Money in Politics by State - OpenSecretsPick a state to follow the money in its state elections and its U.S. House and Senate races: who raises it, who gives it, and from where. 23922
Reposted by Stephen WolfBrendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Key point: "the last 3 presidential elections showed varying levels of pro-Democratic bias in polls, on average. But House and Senate pre-election polls showed very little bias in the two midterms of the Trump era: 2018 and 2022. " 14621
Reposted by Stephen WolfThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 01/10/2026New graphics from AdImpact vividly illustrate something we've emphasized repeatedly: The GOP's massive spending advantage is *not* translating into a comparable *advertising* advantage. In #TXSen, e.g., the GOP has spent 66% of all ad money but aired just 54% of all ads adimpact.com/blogs/republ... 514943
Reposted by Stephen WolfDon Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 01/10/2026America today is a country where regulators won't allow private companies to air interviews of the opposition on TV, but declare that taxpayer funded propaganda is fine. 462218779
Reposted by Stephen WolfDan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026"Three billionaires gave more than 90 percent of the money raised by Representative Tom Tiffany, the Republican nominee for governor of Wisconsin" Tom Tiffany is the most bought and paid for candidate we've ever seen in Wisconsin. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...nytimes.com3 Billionaires Have Largely Funded Republican Nominee for Wisconsin Governor (Gift Article)Under its current rules, Wisconsin has not had a race in which a small number of donors have made up such a large share of a campaign’s funding. 7175100
Reposted by Stephen WolfTaniel @taniel.bsky.social · 01/10/2026NEW: It's that time of year: time to launch my annual guide to November's elections! I guide you through over *650* interesting elections, & why they matter. Judges, AGs, govs, mayors, lawmakers, AGs, county & school boards—plus many (many) ballot measures. Oh, & Congress. Explore & bookmark!boltsmag.orgYour Cheat Sheet to the 2026 General Elections - BoltsCongressional races will take center stage on Nov. 3, but they’re just the tip of what to watch. Prosecutors and governors, attorneys general and sheriffs, school boards and mayors, utility... Read Mo... 24805456
Reposted by Stephen WolfJohn Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Ahead of the Supreme Court's new term, 34% of Americans approve of the court in a new @gallup.com survey – among the lowest percentages on record. news.gallup.com/poll/715022/... 57628
Reposted by Stephen WolfBill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026The other thing that Gov. Cox “expanded” is the Utah Supreme Court, adding two seats after his political party lost a big redistricting case. 1639593
Reposted by Stephen WolfHansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 30/09/2026My latest @npr.org story: Overseas voting advocates are raising concerns about the Trump administration's last-minute changes to forms many U.S. citizens living abroad use for absentee voting, including the removal of a category of citizens that Republicans have been pushing to block from votingnpr.orgTrump officials changed forms for overseas voters amid a GOP push to restrict votingThe Pentagon made last-minute changes to forms that many overseas U.S. citizens use for absentee voting, removing a category of citizens that Republicans have been pushing to block from voting. 16329
Reposted by Stephen WolfState Court Report @statecourtreport.org · 29/09/2026Twenty-four states are holding elections for supreme court seats this November. @douglaskeith.bsky.social spotlights the supreme court races with the greatest potential to shape state high courts:statecourtreport.orgState Supreme Court Elections to Watch This NovemberJudicial races will shape courts across the country and set up 2028 fights for majority control 2028 in Montana and North Carolina 02210
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 29/09/2026That in turn would cause the compact to activate for the 2028 presidential election and inevitably face legal challenges 2221
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 29/09/2026All it could take for the national popular vote compact to reach a majority of electoral votes is for Democrats to flip six legislative chambers across Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 37529
Reposted by Stephen WolfJay Willis @jaywillis.net · 29/09/2026Wrote about the decline and fall of SCOTUSblog, which used to be the single best resource for Supreme Court stuff, and (thanks to some intervening crimes committed by its co-founder) is now a weird platform for conservative pundits to talk about what a good job the conservative justices are doingslate.comIt Was the Essential Home of Supreme Court News. Now It’s a Joke. What Happened?How high-stakes poker brought down a pillar of Supreme Court coverage. 151045261
Reposted by Stephen WolfThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026Don't sleep on Montana's state Supreme Court race. Moderates have long held the balance of power on the seven-member body, but Dan Wilson, who is running with the state GOP's ardent support, would strengthen conservatives should he beat Amy Eddy, who is emphasizing nonpartisanship.the-downballot.comMorning Digest: Conservatives want to erode the top obstacle to total GOP control in MontanaA key Supreme Court race—and a plan to protect judicial independence—are both on the ballot 15822
Reposted by Stephen WolfThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026Missouri Republicans spent months trying to stop voters from getting to weigh in on ballot measures to block their new gerrymander and restrict the legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-backed ballot initiatives. They lost in court and have little time to put together actual campaigns. 27517
Reposted by Stephen WolfAlex Ip 葉清霖 @alexip718.com · 29/09/2026A reminder that America cannot have a multiracial, multicultural democracy if the United States Supreme Court is allowed to continue to exist in its current form 3699210
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 29/09/2026New poll finds Massachusetts voters passing the disastrous top-two “primary” 43-36, though that’s much than the 51-32 edge UMass Amherst found several weeks ago. In better news, this poll shows same-day voter registration passing 53-33 0141
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026This reversion was apparent last year in the NJ and VA state elections and CA’s prop 50. Reminds me of the VA GOP losing nearly all of its Clinton seats in 2017 after long outrunning the presidential results, foreshadowing the 2018 US House results where Dems beat 22/25 Republicans in Clinton seats 04911
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Sustaining it for two months after an election before they end unified Republican governance would be a lot more feasible than 18 month or indefinitely 070
Reposted by Stephen WolfJen Fifield @jenafifield.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Exclusive: Earlier this month, the Supreme Court blocked an executive order restricting voting by mail in ways that could have thrown the upcoming midterms into chaos. But the White House originally had far more disruptive plans, @propublica.org has learned. 🧵 1276119
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026I expect Georgia Republicans would do it in a lame duck session. Dems couldn’t use quorum busting to block or delay it there, so they’d need 9 of 99 state House Republicans to defect 110
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026What remained of the VRA in 2021 and a constitutional limit on state House districts crossing county lines limited the GOP gerrymander’s effectiveness. Democrats could flip the chamber if they win more votes statewide. They’d need landslide margins to win congressional or state Senate majorities 0202
