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The pledge would be to negotiate. You don't know what the deal would look like until after that so then it needs a referendum. Can't ask for a blank cheque.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1h

A key point which few have noticed yet... Tory voters have already shifted a lot. Polling shows they back Burnham's pledge to consider closer relations. And a third back joining again. This is a major problem for Badenoch's supposed "recapture the centre" strategy.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2h

Sure there are some. There aren't many. It's 80/20 at least in polls.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2h

I.e. "Brexit tackle" in football to mean something completely reckless and unncessary.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2h

I also just can't get past the demographics. Who are the 25 year olds who are future Brexiteers? What would motivate them to be so?

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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 4h

[Waggles eyebrows at the 'decades, if ever' people]

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3h

That depends a lot on what happens with the Tories and the centre-right more generally.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3h

The post looks at the options Burnham can explore and why rejoin works best in political and policy terms. What would be the key points in any negotiation. And why a future referendum would look very different to 2016.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 4h

New post: Burnham has opened the door to a "rejoin" manifesto pledge. The politics make more sense than a lot of people seem to realise. I look at what it would involve at every step from pledge to referendum. There are significant barriers but it can be done. samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...

samf.substack.com

The route back into the EU

Back in 2022 I wrote about the long-term prospects for undoing Brexit and made two predictions.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15h

Why on earth were you interviewing him?

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15h

Any amount of time on MailOnline is too long.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 17h

This will definitely help overcome fears that Reform don't look like a credible party of government.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 17h

Huh Peter Andre now only the second worst person Katie Price has been attached to.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 20h

Afaict all the "savings" currently identified have been spent...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 21h

I sort of agree but there is a real problem with going on about how serious you are re: debt and then spending tens of billions in entirely hypothetical savings on tax breaks and defence.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

(Even with the LDs it would probably be a confidence deal not a coalition...)

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

No I've not written about it! It would be too risky - ties them too much to Green positions. Lib Dems would be first choice for alliance and then probably Plaid.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I think there is zero chance of a Labour/Green coalition at national level. And that was true even before this.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Though it depends on whether the Greens look like winning more than a few seats.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yep, deeply inept to get himself into this position.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

He would need to come out now and say he does not support the motion and challenge those who backed him to remove him. He won't though because he's a coward.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Someone still has to beat you and if they're all blowing themselves up it makes it easier!

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I wrote about it in the summer...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

As a Jew I think what the Greens have done is appalling. As a political commentator I think Andy Burnham is a lucky man.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Current polls suggest a PP (centre-right) and Vox (radical right) alliance is the most likely outcome. But Sanchez has come back during campaigns before.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Not good. Bolsonaro now clear favourite to win.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

New post out from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "Operation Vivaldi: The Four Seasons" What have we learnt from Ukraine's successful counter-attack in Donetsk? Looks at command, use of drones, and the Russian's endless capacity for self-deception. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/operation-...

samf.substack.com

Operation Vivaldi: the four seasons

Surprise, deception, and operation security - lessons from Ukrainian success

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It is remarkable how badly the Russians treat their troops.

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4u1e.bsky.social @4u1e.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

As always, very worthwhile reading the post which gives a rational view of what Ukraine has been up to, based on currently available information.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It is remarkable how badly the Russians treat their troops.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Yeah the way they're funding it is stupid (or rather not credible at all), but the status quo is bad and Labour should change it.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Understand where you're coming from ofc but it's an incredibly stupid bit of the tax system. We'd be better off scrapping it and then raising the additional rate by a penny to cover it.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

The post also looks at the ongoing battles in the south of Donetsk and whether the Ukrainian run of success can continue with Russia throwing more and more troops into the fight.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

samf.substack.com

Operation Vivaldi: the four seasons

Surprise, deception, and operation security - lessons from Ukrainian success

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I do enjoy the weekly "what the fuck is Matthew Syed wittering about now" session.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Burnham's speech showed why he can do the job in a way Starmer can't. It gave Labour a sense of purpose. But it also contained a worrying misdiagnosis that I fear will undermine the vision. samf.substack.com/p/a-journey-...

samf.substack.com

A journey without a map

Burnham has given Labour a sense of purpose, but what does it really mean?

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

On the substack this week... The Democrats are now on track to win the midterms in both House and Senate. What can/will they do with power? What does it mean for US and global politics? samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...

samf.substack.com

What happens if the Democrats sweep the midterms?

Back in March, when I first looked at the midterms, the Democrats were already favourites to win the House.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

3 points lower and they would have been behind the LDs.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

And the local election results suggest the polls are about right. Or were in May at least.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

It's quite hard to believe she's still managing to keep the Tory score below Sunak levels despite Labour losing two years, fiscal mess, and Farage being cosmically unpopular.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

They can put pressure on but they can't stop it (not without a friendly supreme court anyway). And even if the war technically ends doesn't mean Hormuz or Red Sea is open for business.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

His key advisers in the space are Purnell and Jonathan Powell who are both v pro-Europe. But I think you can also see him thinking it through himself in real time.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

They probably won't win either and somehow Susan Collins looks like she might hang on again in Maine. But it's looking about as good as one might have hoped for at this stage, with a month to go.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Polls have shifted so much in the Democrats favour that they're marginally ahead in Kansas (where they haven't won a Senate seat since 1932). And only 1 point behind in South Carolina where Lindsay Graham's sister Darline is running for the GOP to be his permanent replacement.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Doesn't really help the bond crisis. Dems aren't to agree to spending cuts and Trump won't raise taxes.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Especially if the global bond rout gets worse over the coming weeks and months. It's possible they won't even get to the spending review next year without having to respond to a crisis.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

As I said in Thursday's post - which is going to make next year's spending review even more of a nightmare. samf.substack.com/p/a-journey-...

samf.substack.com

A journey without a map

Burnham has given Labour a sense of purpose, but what does it really mean?

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

And @ldfreedman.bsky.social wrote about the largely forgotten but horrific war in Sudan. Whether a peace can be found and why it highlights the difficulty of ending bad wars. samf.substack.com/p/the-sudan-...

samf.substack.com

The Sudan War: is there any way out?

Since April 2023 Sudan has been consumed by a vicious war that gets far too little attention in the West.

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