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Rupert Stuart-Smith

@rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social
164 followers 113 following 28 posts

Senior Research Associate in climate science and the law, Oxford Sustainable Law Programme, University of Oxford Climate scientist and collaborator of lawyers www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/person/dr-…

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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
UN Environment Programme @unep.org · 22/09/2026
Overshooting 1.5°C is not a reason to give up. On the contrary, it’s a reason to act faster, because the higher the temperature rise and the longer it stays there, the greater the damage. Here’s what “overshoot” means and why every fraction of a degree matters.
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
ScenarioMIP marker scenarios for CMIP7 are now public. Seven IAM pathways from ~1.4°C to ~3.4°C at 2100 [panel a] that will shape IPCC AR7 assessment 1/6
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Children disproportionately affected by heat Our new Science Advances paper, led by @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social and @wimthiery.eu, shows that children today – and in the future – are disproportionately affected by heat stress. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Age-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heat
Children are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts and will face intensifying effects of climate change during their lifetimes. Here, we show that children already face disproportionate ex...
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
New publication in Environmental Research Letters: overshooting 1.5°C then cooling back down does not undo the damage. We map where, for whom, and through what mechanisms temporary overshoot becomes permanent loss. Paper (OA): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/12
"Three stacked panels sharing a time axis. Top: global temperature rises past 1.5°C, peaks, then declines (the overshoot pathway), with a flat permanent-exceedance line at the peak for comparison. Middle: biophysical responses to the same trajectory diverge; some track temperature down, some recover with a lag, one keeps intensifying. Bottom: socioeconomic impacts of the same biophysical change diverge by adaptive capacity; high-capacity systems recover, while one crosses a dashed adaptive-capacity threshold and never recovers: the permanent overshoot legacy.
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Dr Dan Shugar 🇨🇦 @watershedlab.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
🚨New paper about the second largest tsunami ever recorded, just published in @science.org A short 🧪⚒️🌊 thread #EGU26 @ucalgary.bsky.social @ucalgaryscience.bsky.social doi.org/10.1126/scie...
doi.org
A 481-meter-high landslide-tsunami in a cruise ship–frequented Alaska fjord
Early in the morning of 10 August 2025, a >64 × 106 m3 landslide struck Tracy Arm fjord in Alaska. The landslide was preconditioned by glacial retreat caused by climate change. The resulting 481 m run...
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Today in the @bmj.com, @thomwetzer.bsky.social and I argue that legal developments in recent years effect unprecedented limits on corporate and state climate conduct. The chasm between legal duties and many actors' conduct leaves legal risk widespread for many firms. Read more at the link below 👇
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Today, in the @bmj.com, @gaialisi.bsky.social and I set out how developments in scientific evidence on the health impacts of climate change could pave the way for climate cases to follow in the footsteps of successful litigation on environmental pollution. Full piece here www.bmj.com/content/391/...
bmj.com
Medical evidence drove legal action to clean up the air we breathe—climate justice may be next
A growing corpus of legal action, grounded in medical and scientific evidence on the harmful effects of environmental pollution, aims to defend human rights to life and health. Rachel Carson’s semina...
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
nature.com
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change
It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick @sarahinscience.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
For so long, fossil fuel projects have said their contribution to climate change is "negligible". Turns out that's wrong. Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it. Every tonne of CO2 matters. @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social @minderoo.bsky.social #climatechange www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Super comprehensive report on our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference by @carbonbrief.org. Great summary and overview on some of the central discussion points. Check it out👇👇👇 www.carbonbrief.org/overshoot-ex...
carbonbrief.org
Overshoot: Exploring the implications of meeting 1.5C climate goal ‘from above’ - Carbon Brief
The first-ever international conference on the contentious topic of “overshoot” was held last week in...
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Colin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
🚨 NEW: Climate change is already causing 30,000 deaths per year - a global annual economic loss of $100-350B USD - but the true damage is probably 10x higher. Out TODAY in Nature Climate Change: the first systematic look at the science of "health impact attribution" 🔓 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
"Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change," a brief communication in the journal Nature Climate Change. There's a map showing regions of the world, and pie charts of relevant studies as they apply to different health impacts like "heat-related deaths" and "maternal and child health"
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
And you can read it open-access here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Refining methods for attributing health impacts to climate change: a heat-mortality case study in Zürich - Climatic Change
Heat-related deaths occur throughout the summer months, peak during heatwaves, and are affected by temperature and exposed populations’ sensitivities to meteorological conditions. Previous studies fou...
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
The paper was co-authored with @anavicedo9.bsky.social Sihan Li @frediotto.bsky.social Kristine Belesova, Andy Haines @harrinluke.bsky.social Jeremy Hess, Rashmi Venkatraman @thomwetzer.bsky.social Alistair Woodward @krisebi.bsky.social - @smithschool.ox.ac.uk
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Finally, we quantified individual companies' emissions' contributions to heat-related deaths using a simple 'market-share' approach that quantifies attributable deaths in proportion to emissions. The six highest-emitting companies globally caused at least one additional death each summer since 2004.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
A benefit of this approach was that we could use daily observed mortality data to quantify heat-related deaths, rather than mean mortality for the day of the year, allowing us to more precisely quantify how many attributable deaths occured on any given day.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
To quantify heat-mortality during and outside of heatwaves, we modified the approach used elsewhere and calculated counterfactual temperatures by subtracting attributable temperature anomalies from observations, producing a 50-yr time series that matches observed temperature flucturations.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
We then quantified heat-mortality during and outside heatwaves. The hottest temperatures often get the most attention - and heat deaths are indeed highest then - but three-quarters of heat mortality attributable to human influence on the climate in 2018 occurred outside of the 12-day heatwave.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
in KlimaSeniorinnen v Switzerland to justify its finding that Switzerland needed to reduce emissions: "Although the applicants could agree that adaptation was also crucial, it was not an answer to what Switzerland should have done to mitigate climate change." hudoc.echr.coe.int/eng#_ftnref178
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Our finding shows that changes in vulnerability can reduce heat-mortality, but at least in Zurich, it's still not been enough. Only ceasing GHG emissions will stop the burden of climate change-caused deaths from rising further. As a preprint, the European Court of Human Rights cited this result...
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
We conducted experiments where we applied the heat-mortality relationship from the 1980s/90s to 2004-2018 as a 'constant vulnerability' baseline and found that >700 deaths had been avoided by declining vulnerability. But attributable heat-related deaths had continued to rise in any case.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
We knew that vulnerability to heat changes with time: e.g. behavioural/infrastructual adaptation to heat would be reducing vulnerability while population ageing has the opposite effect. But what is the overall effect of changing vulnerability? Could it be enough to counteract the effects of warming?
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Out now: our new study shows that climate change caused nearly 1,700 heat-related deaths in Zürich over 50 years. We assessed the effects of changing vulnerability to heat, heat-mortality within and outside of heatwaves, and the contribution of individual companies' emissions to heat deaths.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
The guidance is designed to be inclusive and method-agnostic, identifying key steps for robust, high quality analyses. We hope that it will prove useful to study authors, reviewers, journal editors and research funders. Available here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Out now: new guidance for research that attributes health outcomes to climate change led by @krisebi.bsky.social, Andy Haines @lshtm.bsky.social, myself, supported by a fantastic team of co-authors and @wellcometrust.bsky.social.
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Ruben Prütz @rubenpruetz.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
We need CDR. 🧩 But the ambiguity & lack of transparency regarding #CDR in states‘ climate plans jeopardize the PA. ❌ We unpack this issue by reviewing strategies of 70+ states concerning their CDR plans. 📑 👇 More in the thread by lead author Rupert Stuart-Smith & our study doi.org/10.1080/1469...
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Joeri Rogelj @joerirogelj.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
New research on limits to CO2 removal (CDR). CDR is key to our ambition to stop adding climate pollution to the atmosphere. Because it's uncertain how much will be delivered and it clearly comes with risks of social & environmental side-effects, legal issues arise. This paper provides an overview. 👇
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Our new article is available open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... @smithschool.ox.ac.uk @oxfordgeography.bsky.social @oxfordlawfac.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @granthamicl.bsky.social
tandfonline.com
Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhous...
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Legal analysis, in conjunction with the risks associated with CDR-dependent targets assessed here, could clarify states’ mitigation obligations under international law and facilitate progression past a risk-blind and indiscriminate use of scientific pathways in assessing states’ targets. More soon!
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
That previous work was published in @science.org and can be found here: www.science.org/doi/full/10....
science.org
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
To minimise risks associated with reliance on CO2 removal, states should prioritise pathways that minimise overshoot and dependence on removals to reach net-zero. Risks associated with high CDR dependence might render state action inconsistent with norms and principles of international law.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
-- Reliance on international cooperation to deliver CO2 removal (e.g. via carbon trading mechanisms) is also common in states' plans and amplifies these risks. -- Non-delivery of planned CO2 removal would raise global temperatures further, worsening the impacts of climate change.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
-- There is pervasive lack of transparency and ambiguities in states' international reporting, with respect to how states intend to meet their climate targets. -- However, dependence on high levels of CO2 removal is widespread and substantial risks to delivery of planned CO2 removal exist.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
-- Inadequate near-term emission reductions are common, jeopardise the Paris climate targets and create substantial long-term dependence on CO2 removal to eliminate a temperature overshoot, with its associated risks.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
🚨 Out now in @climate-policy.bsky.social: New research with @thomwetzer.bsky.social @rubenpruetz.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social Lavanya Rajamani, Marianne Wood and Ewan White: States are depending heavily on CO2 removal to meet climate targets, risking the Paris Agreement goal.
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Last days to apply for this exciting new role within my team at @oxfordgeography.bsky.social @ox.ac.uk. If you are a climate scientist with experience in climate change attribution or projections and an interest in climate change impact modelling, we would love to hear from you!
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Reposted by Rupert Stuart-Smith
Michael White @mwclimatesci.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
I know that job situations have likely changed for many in climate research. If you are looking for a new opportunity, maybe consider our current opening for the Chief Editor at Nature Geoscience. www.nature.com/naturecareer...
nature.com
Chief Editor, Nature Geoscience - New York City, New York (US) job with Springer Nature Ltd | 12840758
Job Title: Chief Editor, Nature Geoscience Location(s): New York, Shanghai, or Beijing (Internal candidates from hub locations are welcome to apply...
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
The successful candidate will collaborate closely with the growing team of climate scientists within the group, as well as our collaborators on the TACTIC project, a consortium led by @anavicedo9.bsky.social Full details here: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/... Please share widely!
linkedin.com
🚨 We are hiring! | Rupert Stuart-Smith
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a climate science postdoc to join my team at the University of Oxford, working on a Wellcome Trust-funded project on climate change and health, with a focus on impact...
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
👩‍💻 The role will involve conducting climate change attribution and projections studies to increase understanding of the health impacts of climate change, with a particular focus on hitherto under-researched regions (including southern Africa and the Andes, as well as southern Europe).
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a climate science postdoc to join my team at Oxford University, working on a Wellcome Trust-funded project on climate change and health. We’re looking for: ✅ A computationally proficient climate scientist ✅ Experience in climate change attribution/projections
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Very excited to announce that the call for abstracts for our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference is out. Join us to explore the eightfold path to manage climate risks of an overshoot world: overshootconference.org Abstract deadline: June 27.
overshootconference.org
Overshoot |
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Rupert Stuart-Smith @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a climate scientist postdoc to join my team at Oxford working on a project on climate change and health until Feb 2028. For more details: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/... 📅 Apply by 14 May here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
linkedin.com
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a postdoc to join my team at the… | Rupert Stuart-Smith
🚨 We are hiring! I am looking for a postdoc to join my team at the University of Oxford, working on a Wellcome Trust-funded project on climate change and health. The post will run until February 2028....
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Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera @anavicedo9.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
📣 We are hiring! A 2-year postdoc position in our @cephresearch.bsky.social at ISPM @unibe.ch is now open for applications (deadline 31 May). If you are a young researcher with interests on health impact attribution, don't miss this opportunity! ohws.prospective.ch/public/v1/jo...
ohws.prospective.ch
Uni Bern: Postdoc in Climate Epidemiology
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Setu @setupelz.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
📢 New paper w/ G. Ganti @robinlamboll.bsky.social L. Grant @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social K. Riahi @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social We examine a forward-looking measure to guide collective efforts in the era of climate overshoot: net-zero carbon debt. 🧵
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Joeri Rogelj @joerirogelj.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
CO2 removal (CDR) is both essential and controversial because side-effects can undermine mitigation ambition and sustainable development. As the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change @esabcc.bsky.social we advise the EU on how to navigate CDR opportunities and risks. (1/n)
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Rachel Lowe 🌺 @drrachellowe.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Interested in conducting cutting-edge research in health impact attribution? We have a postdoc position open in the @bsc-cns.bsky.social Global Health Resilience Group to work in a new @wellcometrust.bsky.social funded project TACTIC. Application details here: www.bsc.es/join-us/job-...
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