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Alaa Al Khourdajie

@dralaaclimate.bsky.social
2.9K followers 343 following 187 posts

#Climate #Energy #Scenarios | Advanced Research Fellow @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social | Lead Author @ipcc.bsky.social AR7 | WP4 Lead @EU-DIAMOND | Guest Scholar @iiasa.ac.at | Editor @plosclimate.org | Dad AlKhourdajie.github.io

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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The IPCC hosted a workshop on Methods of Assessment earlier this year, looking at systemic reviews, use of artificial intelligence for knowledge synthesis, and ex-post evaluations. I had the pleasure of sharing the floor with Michal to give a talk about AI and the IPCC www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/...
ipcc.ch
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
As always, check out the Climate Dashboard for daily updates. It now includes more nerdy ENSO data including trade winds, southern oscillation index, and warm water volume tracking! dashboard.theclimate...
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
ScenarioMIP marker scenarios for CMIP7 are now public. Seven IAM pathways from ~1.4°C to ~3.4°C at 2100 [panel a] that will shape IPCC AR7 assessment 1/6
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National Academy of Sciences @nasonline.org · 02/09/2026
Small changes in the ocean can trigger global consequences. 🌊 The new summary from the 2026 US-UK Scientific Forum on ocean tipping points explores how researchers are working to understand, predict & respond to shifts in ocean systems. Read here: royalsociety.org/-/media/abou... @royalsociety.org
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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
For all the sturm and drang, opinions and POVs, this is numerically how fast CCS injections are growing in the world. Most of the volume is a few big projects @dralaaclimate.bsky.social @jack-cavanaugh.bsky.social imperialcollegelondon.github.io/The-London-R...
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
New publication in Environmental Research Letters: overshooting 1.5°C then cooling back down does not undo the damage. We map where, for whom, and through what mechanisms temporary overshoot becomes permanent loss. Paper (OA): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/12
"Three stacked panels sharing a time axis. Top: global temperature rises past 1.5°C, peaks, then declines (the overshoot pathway), with a flat permanent-exceedance line at the peak for comparison. Middle: biophysical responses to the same trajectory diverge; some track temperature down, some recover with a lag, one keeps intensifying. Bottom: socioeconomic impacts of the same biophysical change diverge by adaptive capacity; high-capacity systems recover, while one crosses a dashed adaptive-capacity threshold and never recovers: the permanent overshoot legacy.
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Kate Mackenzie @katemac.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
This might be one of the funniest chart about energy scenarios I’ve seen. You can hardly see “actual” for gas
Winners and Losers
The IEA overestimated gas growth in Asia and underestimated solar

Gas
• Forecast 547 TWh
• Actual 17 TWh

Solar
• Forecast 465 TWh
• Actual 1,333 TWh

Note: Shows expected growth in Asian power generation between 2018 and 2025, based on actual 2018 generation, actual 2025 generation, and the 2018 World Energy Outlook's Current Policies Scenario estimates for 2025. Actual 2025 generation figures are from Ember.
Source: International Energy Agency, Ember, Bloomberg Opinion calculations
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
@dralaaclimate.bsky.social is an expert in climate change economics and integrated assessment modeling at Imperial College London's Department of Chemical Engineering. He specializes in climate mitigation scenarios, AI for climate science, and has contributed significantly to IPCC reports.
A black and white close-up portrait of a man with dark, curly hair and glasses, smiling warmly at the camera. He wears thick-rimmed, square glasses, a patterned, grid-checked button-down shirt, and a tailored jacket. The background is a brightly lit, softly blurred indoor hallway.
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
🙃🤷🏻‍♂️
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Dr Iain Staffell @iain-staffell.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
The UK’s AI race is all about electricity. 70% of data centre capacity lies within 20 miles of London. They block new homes being built because the grid can’t cope. We must look beyond - to places with clean power and strong grid access. Read in full: reports.electricinsights.co.uk
The UK’s data centres are heavily concentrated around London, unlike its clean power stations. 1.7 GW of the UK’s 2.4 GW of data centres lie within 20 miles of the capital. 

Left map shows the location and power capacity of every data centre in the UK.  Right map shows the location and capacity of large clean power stations in the UK (nuclear, biomass, hydro and wind).  Cross and bubbles are sized according to power capacity.
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PLOS Climate @plosclimate.org · 29/05/2026
New on the Latitude blog: meet PLOS Climate Academic Editor @dralaaclimate.bsky.social, who recently joined the team on our Machine Learning and AI section 👇 latitude.plos.org/2026/05/meet...
latitude.plos.org
Meet PLOS Climate Academic Editor Alaa Al Khourdajie - Latitude
We are delighted to introduce Alaa Al Khourdajie (Imperial College London, UK) as an Academic Editor in PLOS Climate‘s new Machine Learning and…
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IPCC @ipcc.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
In response to recent misinformation about the use of scenarios in IPCC reports: the IPCC does not conduct its own research, run models or make measurements. The IPCC’s role is to assess the available scientific, peer-reviewed literature relevant to climate change: www.ipcc.ch/2026/05/20/i...
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
This is a quick summary of the latest CMIP process. It is a complex beast and a consensus project so there are always things that you’ll agree with and those that you might not. 1/
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Emily Theokritoff @etheokritoff.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
The climate #litigation pico session and splinter meeting are back at #EGU26! ⚖️ We’re looking forward to another round of enriching, highly interdisciplinary talks and discussions. Based on this year’s impressive line-up of abstracts and speakers, it’s set to be a great one.
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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
I've been privileged over the years to write a sequence energy modelling methodology papers with (now Professor 🥳) Steve Pye of UCL, along with a rotating cast of amazing people. The latest dropped today in Nature Energy ➡️ rdcu.be/e2tt6
rdcu.be
Addressing context-specific energy modelling risks and dynamics in low- and middle-income countries
Nature Energy - Low- and middle-income countries face unique challenges when it comes to balancing growing energy needs with broader, long-term development needs. This Perspective argues for...
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
Sadly, “for now”
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PLOS Climate @plosclimate.org · 22/12/2025
On the 22nd day of our #PLOSClimateCountdown, we're featuring an Essay by @dralaaclimate.bsky.social: "The role of Artificial Intelligence in climate change scientific assessments" 🔗 journals.plos.org/climate/arti...
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Natassa Romanou @aromanou.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
#NCAR is a leading institution in climate science. Climate science is not woke. It is the science that explains the evidence we have over the last few decades of an earth system that is stressed by anthropogenic interference.
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Béatrice Cointe @beatricecointe.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
[2/3] One in Futures on "Constructing futures through climate modelling", that I'm co-editing with @dralaaclimate.bsky.social, @natasja.bsky.social, @a-nikas.bsky.social and Chris Groves Submission deadline for *papers* : March 31 www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...
sciencedirect.com
Futures | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier - Futures | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier
Read the latest articles of Futures at ScienceDirect.com, Elsevier’s leading platform of peer-reviewed scholarly literature
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, and pollution are together claiming millions of lives and costing trillions of dollars every year, according to the most comprehensive assessment of the global environment ever undertaken 🧵
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Here we go, @ipcc.bsky.social first lead author meeting (and for the first time ever covering all three working groups) A mixed feeling of excitement and responsibility
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
#COP30: Imperial researchers react to ‘deeply disappointing’ climate talks In the aftermath of the agreement, Imperial experts Dr Nathan Johnson, Dr Robin Lamboll, Prof Joeri Rogelj, Dr Alaa Al Khourdajie, Dr Emily Theokritoff and Dr Caterina Brandmayr have weighed in 🧵 ow.ly/9CSZ50XwZzs
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
A lot of people are going to lose money on this. Solar radiation modification only makes sense if followed by large-scale carbon dioxide removal, and we ain't got that.
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Spent Saturday night reviewing the final #COP30 Belém draft text. A friend joked it counts as “light reading.” Unfortunately, it is very much a light read. 1/
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Spent Saturday night reviewing the final #COP30 Belém draft text. A friend joked it counts as “light reading.” Unfortunately, it is very much a light read. 1/
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
As the final text is being hammered out here in Belém for #COP30, the issue of fossil fuel phase-out is on the table again. Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement) 1/3
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
As the final text is being hammered out here in Belém for #COP30, the issue of fossil fuel phase-out is on the table again. Looking at the actual numbers from the IPCC AR6 1.5°C assessed scenarios to decompose reduced fossil fuel output vs. carbon capture and storage - CCS (i.e. abatement) 1/3
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Andy Reisinger @andyreisinger.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Overshoot: returning to 1.5°C requires net-negative emissions targets. @swp-berlin.org policy brief with Oliver Geden. Keeping 1.5 alive will require reframing “net-zero” as transitional stage towards net-negative GHG emissions rather than an endpoint, and policy instruments able to deliver this.
swp-berlin.org
Overshoot: Returning to 1.5°C Requires Net-negative Emissions Targets
Global warming is set to rise above 1.5°C by the early 2030s. Returning to 1.5°C before the end of the 21st century would not prevent all harms...
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
To be Paris Agreement compatible, the label 'abated fossil fuels' needs to apply to Carbon Capture and Storage applications with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions on a lifecycle basis. This requires four things...🧵 ow.ly/j0lz50XsO8a #COP30
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Join our #COP30 event “CCUS Myth-Busting Live: Ask the Experts” Date and time Monday 17 November, 10:00–11:30 am local time (1:00-2:30pm UK time) Location: UK Pavilion, Blue Zone (A23) YouTube live stream: www.youtube.com/live/SjaW3Ob...
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Robin Lamboll @robinlamboll.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Do climate conferences actually achieve anything? A lot of people have strong opinions, but we wanted measurements, so we look at how the stock market moves during yearly international meetings called COPs – explanation below, or read the paper here: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
📈COP delivers stock market boost for ‘green’ companies but renewables unaffected, Imperial College London study shows 🧵 Read it here: ow.ly/o6xY50XnEuH
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Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 30/10/2025
The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.
gmd.copernicus.org
An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans
Abstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏
nature.com
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change
It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...
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Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Every ton of CO2 matters : @climatenerilie.bsky.social quantifies the climatic impacts of one large fossil fuel project and its implications for further human heat exposure or coral reef loss, and how committed emissions challenge climate pledges www.nature.com/articles/s44...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
We finally have a new paper out looking at how summary statistics from the AR6 scenario database are highly dependent on the sampling of the database. High profile statistics are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/
Two curves show how the median is different depending on the scenario.
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
There are a few people that are inspirations to almost all scientists that I know, and Jane Goodall was one of them. RIP. 😢
apnews.com
Jane Goodall, the celebrated primatologist and conservationist, has died
Jane Goodall, the conservationist renowned for her groundbreaking chimpanzee field research and globe-spanning environmental advocacy, has died. She was 91.
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holly jean buck @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
How can the #IPCC navigate generative AI? What does it mean for scientific assessment more broadly? New working paper looks at scenarios for AI adoption & resistance, w/ @dralaaclimate.bsky.social @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden Reflections welcome! www.swp-berlin.org/publications...
swp-berlin.org
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
New working paper out: "Four scenarios for an @ipcc.bsky.social navigating Artificial Intelligence" Led by @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social, with @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden Thread 🧵 1/13
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Are you a highly motivated early-career researcher from a developing country or a country in transition, and want to be a Chapter Scientist in the next IPCC report? Then here is your chance. Deadline 18 October 2025. www.ictp.it/opportunity/...
ictp.it
IPCC AR7 Chapter Scientists | ICTP
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is in the process of preparing its Seventh Assessment report (AR7). The IPCC Working Groups are seeking highly motivated early-career researchers f...
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IPCC @ipcc.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Registration for experts interested in serving as Expert Reviewers and providing scientific comments on the First Order Draft of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is now open! Register here: apps.ipcc.ch/comments/src... ⚠️ Registration closes 30 Nov2025 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
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Leila Niamir @leilaniamir.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
📢 Experts on cities & climate change wanted! The @ipcc.bsky.social report on #cities & #climatechange is looking for reviewers to review the first draft. This is your chance to shape global knowledge and action on cities and climate resilience! Interested? 👉 www.tinyurl.com/srcities #IPCC #SRCities
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Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
The summer is over - and for about 16,600 people across 854 European cities that doesn't mean autumn comes, but death. People who would still be alive if it wasn't for our burning of fossil fuels. - New study with @lshtm.bsky.social www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/pub...
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Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment @granthamicl.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
❓Climate reports for the IPCC and others have become increasingly complex, it’s also getting harder to capture & present relevant research to decision-makers. @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social's Dr @dralaaclimate.bsky.social's new paper explores how artificial intelligence could tackle this problem 🧵
ow.ly
The role of artificial intelligence in climate change scientific assessments
Climate change scientific assessments prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) face interconnected dual challenges: the exponential growth of literature, hindering synthesis…
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Robert Gieseke (Openclimatedata) @openclimatedata.net · 15/09/2025
Very nice essay/review from @dralaaclimate.bsky.social on AI in climate assessments! Thanks to open access and HTML I could read it on my phone on the train! 😀 I hope the big shots who AI everything these days read it too!
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
🔬 New paper alert: "The role of artificial intelligence in climate change scientific assessments" @plosclimate.org As #AI adoption accelerates, should @ipcc.bsky.social integrate these tools? Can LLMs (chatbots) communicate findings while maintaining scientific rigour? doi.org/10.1371/jour... 1/9
doi.org
The role of artificial intelligence in climate change scientific assessments
Climate change scientific assessments prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) face interconnected dual challenges: the exponential growth of literature, hindering synthesis ef...
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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 14/09/2025
Interesting paper from @dralaaclimate.bsky.social on one aspect of how to use AI robustly in climate research, conscious of its limitations.
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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Dear @theguardian.com, we count on you for reasonably well informed lefty takes on global events. This wasn’t one. #CCUS may have a critical role to play in cement & chemicals and removing excess CO2. The picture you show is of a Norwegian #CCS plant that works. www.theguardian.com/news/2025/se...
theguardian.com
Carbon capture – the get-out-of-jail-free card that does not actually work
Engineers have been trying to perfect the technology for years but the maximum effect it could manage is far short of what the planet needs
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Prof. Sonia I Seneviratne @soniaseneviratne.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
New starter pack with @ipcc.bsky.social #AR7 scientists (bureau, authors, REs)! Full list: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho... For SR cities scientists see separate starter pack! @dianaurge.bsky.social @sherilee.bsky.social @siir-kilkis.bsky.social @janfuglestvedt.bsky.social go.bsky.app/2FuXb3Y
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