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Robert Cuffe

@robertcuffe.bsky.social
1.5K followers 1.4K following 50 posts

BBC News’s statistician. Number nerd 24-7-365.2425

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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Reform’s slide from top of the polls
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Me: “relative changes, schmelative schmanges : doubling a small number is still a small nu…..” Also me: “whhhhooooaaa! CHECK OUT THIS CHART!!! We rule”
Bar chart showing that the subject of statistics saw the biggest growth) in relative terms) in GCSE’s this year.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Latest growth figs overstate latest growth
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Robin Hawkes @robhawkes.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Britain's electricity network* *now in high-res with floofy clouds More experiments visualising energy data using Blender and Geometry Nodes
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Watching a Mel Gibson vehicle on Prime, I’m prepared to bet that I’m seeing my first example of a Chekhov’s lawn mower
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Fascinating and worrying in equal measure. Apparently, according to the ONS, some 53% of us currently receive more in benefits (including pensions) than we contribute in taxes (up from 37% in 1977). But polling shows that only 12% of us think this applies to them.
kellnerp.substack.com
Burnham’s biggest problem: ungrateful voters
Few of us believe we benefit from our contract with the state
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
At the BBC we pulled out interesting leads in the Mandelson doc drop using Google's AI-powered journalism assistant. Watch the clip for deets. Behind me is @barbarametzler.bsky.social, one of BBC News's data scientists - always on the lookout for better ways to do computer-assisted journalism.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
At the BBC we pulled out interesting leads in the Mandelson doc drop using Google's AI-powered journalism assistant. Watch the clip for deets. Behind me is @barbarametzler.bsky.social, one of BBC News's data scientists - always on the lookout for better ways to do computer-assisted journalism.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
UK pop ~growth~ slowth More detail at www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
More UK deaths than births expected every year from now on www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
More UK deaths than births expected every year from now on
The UK population is expected to grow at a slower rate than previously thought owing to a sharp fall in migration and declining fertility rates
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
A lot of the increase in young men living with parents looks like a post uni return home that gradually fades.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
good growth figure this morning is more likely a swallow than a summer...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
How much more North Sea oil and gas could be extracted by the UK? & what direct impact might this have on UK energy prices? Some relevant data. Thread 🧵...1/17
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Analogy chosen for the Arsenal fan in the house.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
meh inflation in feb is the best we'll see for a while.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Rounding reminder - to the nearest whole number: 0.5 = 0 1.5 = 2 2.5 = 2 3.5 = 4..... Don't @ me. @ the IEE754 and round to the nearest even number. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_754
en.wikipedia.org
IEEE 754 - Wikipedia
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
The LFS may have its failings, but it still beats opt-in data on faith among young adults. pewrsr.ch/4bbNh8N
pewrsr.ch
Has there been a Christian revival among young adults in the U.K.? Recent surveys may be misleading
Despite the widely recognized decline of Christianity in the U.K., there have been persistent rumblings of a Christian resurgence.
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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
VAT banter. Niche audience but I’m in that niche so I’m here for it @louisashworth.bsky.social
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Solar's not the biggest renewable in Britain but it drove last year's rise to record renewable generation. From @beckydale.bsky.social @markpoynting.bsky.social & Jess Carr's www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Has anyone seen a good stats analysis of The Traitors?
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Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
‪It has a name now 😜 Many thanks to Ken for agreeing to put his good name to my...artwork. The image is in the public domain (CC 0), but citations to the linked documents are warmly welcomed. ✅ zenodo.org/records/1808... ✅ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24452418/
Figure 1: The Rothman-Dahly Evidence Pyramid (original version)

An equilateral triangle with a small blue section labelled "Thoughtful, well-conducted studies of any design" at the top, with the remaining space colored red and labelled "The other shit"
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 17/12/2025
You remember that Nature Aging paper about how multilingualism protects against accelerated aging? Well…
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
40k small boat crossings so far this year is - second highest on record - less than half of asylum claims* - about 5% of immigration* *July '24 - June '25, latest figs More on BBC's migration tracker: bit.ly/4rVv595
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
*The truth is that a huge pessimistic bias in our national accounts has led us to be fed with contemporary reports of doom and gloom, which subsequently turn out to be nonsense" . giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @chrisgiles.ft.com
giftarticle.ft.com
The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told
A huge pessimistic bias in our national accounts leads us to doom and gloom which turns out to be nonsense
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Record* life expectancy for women in the UK. *by 0.01 years.
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Cassie Barton @cassierbarton.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
The Commons Library is recruiting a housing policy researcher! As ever: highly recommended workplace, great people, interesting work, etc etc. Apply! housesofparliament.tal.net/vx/mobile-0/...
housesofparliament.tal.net
Housing Researcher - Houses of Parliament
Title: Housing Researcher. Employer: House of Commons. Salary: £43,614 - £50,374 per annum. Closes: 11/01/2026, 23:55
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Record low murder rate in England and Wales
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Darren Macey @darrenmacey.bsky.social · 14/09/2025
We would love to hear your thoughts on our new set of maths teaching resources, developed in partnership with @mathsweek.scot Please share widely! @robertcuffe.bsky.social @rssedinburgh.bsky.social @rss-teach.bsky.social #MathsWeekScot
mathsweek.scot
Stats in the Wild - Maths Week Scotland
This set of bespoke evidence-based resources are for exploring statistics using outdoor maths.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
Surely should be a portrait of Notey McNoteface? British Bulldogs to Basil Fawlty - your banknote redesign ideas www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Your banknote redesign ideas - from British Bulldogs to Basil Fawlty
The Bank of England wants views on themes for its next series of banknotes, and BBC readers are full of ideas.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Strong +1. Civil service statisticians made excellent technical contributions to recent UK Statistics Assembly.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
UK's data agency has 'deep seated' issues, review finds ONS will reallocate ~10m worth of FTE to fix core econ stats National Stato job will be split into two: technical + running org Govt will look at the legislation defining roles and governance of UK stats www.bbc.com/news/article...
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Among the new BBC editorial guidelines taking effect in September is an expanded chapter on stats, data, polls and surveys www.bbc.co.uk/editorialgui...
bbc.co.uk
Section 11: Statistics, Data, Polls and Surveys
Sections 11.1, 11.2 and 11.3
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Trump announces 20% ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for EU. 10% for UK.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk
Rob Kent-Smith to Peter Schofield: Increase in the number of people on Universal Credit
Dear Sir Peter We have received a number of complaints relating to a press release published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) on 13 March entitled ‘Almost two million people on Universal...
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 20/02/2025
The head of Amnesty International UK claims in this Guardian article that "The evidence that [predictive policing] keeps us safe just isn’t there". But that's simply not true. Let's look at what the best-available evidence on predictive policing shows … 🧵 www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
theguardian.com
UK use of predictive policing is racist and should be banned, says Amnesty
Exclusive: rights group says use of algorithms and data reinforces discrimination in UK policing
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Pretty poor stats from UK Home Office yesterday. Firstly, misleading to say 19k people were removed. Most "returns" (this stat) are people who left voluntarily, most often those who left of their own accord and whose departure the Home Office only discovered later when (e.g.) checking visa data.
Home Office Tweet. Text says "Through our Plan for Change, we have removed almost 19,000 people including failed asylum seekers, foreign criminals and immigration offenders from the UK since July 2024."Screengrab of Home Office stats showing that the single largest category of returns are "other verified returns": people who left the country of their own accord and whose departure was discovered later by the Home Office.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
school absence fines (mainly for unauthorised holidays) up by a quarter to record levels. explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statist...
The number of penalty notices issued to parents for taking their children on family holidays has hit a record high, according to figures released today by the Department for Education.
There were just over 443,000 penalty notices issued for unauthorised family holidays in the 2023/24 academic year, up by a quarter on the previous year and the highest number since records began in 2009/10.
This has pushed the total number of penalty notices issued for unauthorised absence in the same academic year to 487,344, an increase of 22% from the previous year and also the highest number since records began in 2009/10.
Penalty notices are issued to parents for failing to ensure that their child attends school. In 2023/24 they were for £60 if paid within 21 days of receipt rising to £120 if paid after 21 days. If the penalty is not paid within 28 days, the local authority must either prosecute for the original offence or withdraw the notice.
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 28/01/2025
The world has probably passed “peak air pollution”
The image shows a series of six line graphs depicting the trends in global emissions of different pollutants from 1750 to 2022. The title reads "The world has passed 'peak pollution'," indicating that emissions of several pollutants have declined since their peak levels, except for ammonia.

The pollutants shown are:

- Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) – peaked in the mid-20th century and has since declined.
- Nitrogen oxide (NOx) – followed a similar pattern, peaking around the late 20th century and then dropping.
- Carbon monoxide (CO) – peaked mid-20th century and declined.
- Black carbon (BC) – shows a rise until recently, followed by a drop.
- Organic carbon (OC) – has risen steadily with a recent plateau.
- Ammonia (NH₃) – continues to rise without a recent decline.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Another record low in planning applications submitted and decided in England. www.gov.uk/government/s...
Line chart showing the number of planning applications received, granted and decided in England. All three have been trending down fairly steadily in recent years.
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Ed Conway @edconway.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
🚨How worried should Rachel Reeves be about rising bond yields? 😨How worried should the rest of us be? 😱And is this a repeat of 2022 (or even worse)? After all, UK 30yr govt bond yields are now at the HIGHEST level in more than a quarter century. 📽️My 4min explainer👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mDx...
youtube.com
Long-term borrowing costs hit new high | Ed Conway analysis
YouTube video by Sky News
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Here's what happened to the price of government borrowing in the week of the mini-Budget. The BoE announcement had an effect. So did the mini-Budget. So did Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng saying there was "more to come" that weekend.
Line chart showing the cost of UK government bonds in the week around the Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget. After months of steady, gentle rises, rates picked up sharply on Thursday after the Bank of England announced interest rates. They then picked up sharply again on Friday after the mini-Budget and again by more on the Monday morning when markets opened.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Some local councils in England will need to *quintuple* new housing delivery to meet government targets. Analysis - plus postcode lookup for your council at www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Bar chart showing average number of homes delivered in English councils and the new targets they are expected to meet. For example, Kensington and Chelsea delivered around 240 new homes a year over the last three financial years. Their new target is more than five thousand homes a year.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
This is fab.
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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
As featured on Rest is Entertainment our @moreincommonuk.bsky.social polling of how Brits favourite Christmas films breakdown by voting intention. Labour holds landslide leads with fans of Elf & the Grinch. Tories storm ahead with Love Actually and Reform are ahead by 5 points with fans of Scrooged.
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Ahmad Barclay @bothness.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
What's your favourite #API for government #OpenData in 2024? And why? (Asking for a friend... Examples from anywhere in the world welcome!)
API icon by adizas/clean png
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 09/12/2024
Americans are now one-third less likely to die from cancer at the same ages as Americans in 1990
How has the risk of dying from cancer changed in the United States?

To understand this, we can look at national cancer death rates in the United States.

The gray line shows the crude rate, which is the rate of deaths from cancer per 100,000 people. It has risen between 1950 and 1990 and has fallen slightly since then.

However, cancer death rates rise sharply with age, and the age of the US population has increased since 1950, so we would expect cancer death rates to rise for that reason alone.

What if we adjust for the increased age of the US population?

The red line, the age-standardized rate, shows this. It shows the cancer death rate if the age structure of the US population was held constant throughout.

This shows a slight rise until 1990 and then a significant decline; rates have fallen by one-third.

This means Americans are now one-third less likely to die from cancer at the same ages as Americans in 1990.

This comes from several factors: better screening and earlier diagnosis, medical advances in cancer treatments, and public health efforts to reduce risk factors like smoking and exposure to carcinogens.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
As well as the policy stuff, this is good on how to read “is X too high or too low” survey data.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Top baby names in E&W 2023: Olivia (eighth year in a row, Ava replaced by Freya in top five) Muhammad (this spelling up from second in 2022 - top five for boys unchanged) More here: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
ons.gov.uk
Baby names in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics
Most popular first names for baby girls and boys in 2023 using birth registration data.
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Robert Cuffe @robertcuffe.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
2.3m victims of domestic abuse, 39k convictions. Most of the fall-off is between incident and reporting and between reporting and referral to CPS (and of that, more than half of the fall-off involves victims not supporting action). www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Chart showing domestic abuse from incident to conviction. 
2.3m victims: The Crime Survey for England and Wales estimates that 2.3m people were victims of domestic abuse in the year to March 2024. Just over two-thirds of these were women (1.6m). Despite gradual falls over the last decade in the estimated prevalence of domestic abuse, this figure hasn't changed significantly from the year ending March 2023.

0.85m crimes recorded: The police recorded about 1.4m domestic abuse-related incidents and crimes in the year ending March 2024 - 0.5m were categorised as incidents and 0.85m as crimes. Domestic abuse accounts for nearly one-in-six of all offences recorded by police. More than three-quarters of these recorded crimes run aground on what are called "evidential difficulties", most often the victim not supporting action.  

73k referrals to CPS: The police referred nearly 73,000 cases to the CPS in the last financial year of whom just over 49,000 were charged. The number of referrals was slightly up on the year before (69k). 

39k convictions: There was a slight fall in the conviction rate. Just under 39,000 of the cases completed last year resulted in conviction, very slightly down from just above 39k the year before - reaching the lowest level for at least ten years. (38,776 down from 39,198)
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Dr Duncan Robertson @duncanrobertson.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Hannah Fry joins the University of Cambridge www.maths.cam.ac.uk/features/han...
maths.cam.ac.uk
Hannah Fry announced as Professor of the Public Understanding of Mathematics | Features: Faculty Insights
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