iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 9h

FridayChartQuiz: What European country’s real GDP/capital is this? G7 max-min range and median shown for context Also shown on log sale on the right, to give a better sense of perspective on the older data Wrong answers encouraged as always 🤣

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Big day today as Schroders joins forces with Nuveen. My take: (I know many of you don’t want to go on LI so I’ve saved you the trouble)

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So much for getting the sleeper train to London so I’d get there in good time for a meeting this morning. Should still make it, just makes things annoyingly tighter to fit a shower in On the plus side, I’ll get refunded the full £205 ticket cost 💷💷💷

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The moment in life when you get over yourself is liberating

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Software was 47% of all private equity US large buyout transactions in 2022, by value 📈sector-specific exposure in deals that took place in a hot market, that need to be exited Less exposure elsewhere Source: Schroders Capital Private Equity Lens *Not inv advice. Opinions my own, not Schroders*

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Are there people out there who spend £340 for airport lounge access? Not for a yearly pass or something, for a single visit

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Just your regular Sunday night vibes

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

REM seem curiously absent from the nostalgia wave They’ve got such a back catalogue that you’d think they’d be ripe for it Hardly ever hear their songs on the radio, no big reunion tour. Could absolutely cash in if they wanted Why not?

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

FridayChartQuiz: $100 invested in me when I joined S&P 500 would now be worth $75,000 vs $6,500 for SP500 Who am I? Clue: 🇺🇸 cultural icon Even wilder since 1981 IPO: $100 = $1.6m vs $20k from SP500 Log scale shown so can see diff in growth rates * NOT INV ADVICE, Past perf not guide to future*

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I love space so much. When I contemplate the vastness of the universe it makes me feel like a giddy schoolkid again EVERYTHING ELSE IS A GALAXY

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

What a chart. Emerging market bond yields have decoupled and fallen as developed market yields have soared I bet there are more than a few in EM feeling a sense of schadenfreude right now!

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

AI displays some psychopathic behaviours, we need to treat it as artificial life, and we need to develop an immune system - fast Those are the views of Andrew Low, at a thought provoking talk I attended last night at Adam Smith's former home in Edinburgh, Panmure House. Other key takeaways:

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

How much credibility should we give to analyst consensus expectations for US long term EPS growth to be 25% a year, the highest on record? 📈 Absolutely none 🚫 Chart shows average number of analyst forecasts which make up that consensus at the individual stock level Three important conclusions:

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I wonder if decades later we’ll see an impact like this of the mansion tax In rural Croatia I was surprised to see lots of unfinished houses with people living on one story. Assumed that must be tax related! Incentives drive behaviours (pics on corners of Lothian Road, Edinburgh)

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Is there a better city for an early morning run?

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Friday chart quiz: guess the commodity whose price has crashed to its lowest this century? Clue: it’s something many of us have bought but it’s not something (most) people buy often Source: Bloomberg/ZeroHedge via @barchart.com

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Some thoughts on private market valuations/discounts to NAVs If I want to sell my house tomorrow I can but at far worse price vs an orderly sale Odds of being able to find a buyer who can move quickly is low Using round numbers, is my house worth £1m or £800k? (FTAOD not my actual house value!)

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

👾Worried about AI taking over a nuclear lab, killing its trainer and, even if we try to “switch off the internet” to stop it, taking over your refrigerator? Terrifying Odd Lots podcast. If you just want the most terrifying part, listen to the 40-44 minute segment www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2...

bloomberg.com

Odd Lots: Why Bridgewater's CIO Says AI's Human Extinction Risk Is Real - Bloomberg

Understand every aspect of the global economy – and know how to make your next move.

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

You should expect credit spreads to be tighter when government borrowing is higher. It's related to supply/demand in the Treasury market. Here’s the mechanism

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Clearing out an old sideboard. Almost inevitable that the moment I throw these out I’ll suddenly realise what they’re for and be unable to source a replacement

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Friday chart quiz: what“bad news” economic variable is on track to hit a new all-time high in 2026? It has gone up in difficult economic times but it also went up in the mid-2000s before the GFC, for an entirely different reason Shaded areas tell a story, in the changing composition

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Sri Lankan curry for dinner. Banging www.theguardian.com/food/2026/se...

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Between us my wife and I have 3 copies of Fermat’s Last Theorem by Simon Singh. I loved that book Thanks to AI we’ll never have another: “I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of this, which this margin is too narrow to contain.” Going straight to an answer loses the intrigue and fun in maths

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Should bond investors hate, welcome, or shrug if yields rise? Bad: if yields rise, the price of bonds you hold falls Offset: coupon can be reinvested at these new higher yields Outcome: if investment horizon matched maturity of bond, starting yield has been excellent predictor of future returns

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I bought a pack of bourbon creams today for 62p Why do any kids buy Mars bars or Freddos when you can get a whole pack of these for half the cost? They probably didn’t cost much more 20yrs ago

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Friday chart quiz: what went up sharply as a % of the UK after 1900 compared with the centuries before? It’s something that we all appreciate which can also be a political local hot potato Wrong guesses encouraged, as always! Source: @economist.com h/t @jacktindale.bsky.social

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

UK and European value stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 1, 3, and 5 years In case you’re curious: UK value stocks = 1.8% of MSCI ACWI Europe ex UK value = 5.3% of ACWI If you invest globally you really don't have very much exposure

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Our 5yr fix is up for refi. Rate will jump from 1.06% to 4.51% 56% increase in our monthly payments if we don’t reduce the balance Is this a record? 😭

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Today's weird (and geeky) rabbit hole: does it surprise you that there is less dispersion in views among professional forecasters today than at most points in the past 34 years? Top charts: upper/lower quartile for 10yr growth/infl Bottom charts: interquartile range - very low!

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Reposted by Duncan Lamont

👻 Jack Djinn Wail 🧞 @jacktindale.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

One of the more interesting graphs I've seen, something that seems really counter-intuitive until you think about it. England only having about 15 percent forest coverage at the time of the Doomsday book (about half of what France and Germany have today) is wild, isn't it?

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

There are ~13k venture capital-backed UK companies, more than doubled in 10yrs 8.7x more VC-backed companies in the UK than publicly listed ones Listed company numbers 📉 Greater availability of private capital means cos. stay private for longer and, on flipside, PE is acquiring UK listed cos

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

🎭 Yesterday I became an Edinburgh Fringe festival performer Not something I ever thought I’d write Would I be entertaining enough? Would the audience be expecting jokes? Thankfully it went well! (I think, audience may disagree) You can opine once it comes out in pod format

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

I’ve come to take part in an Edinburgh Fringe show and no one has turned up to watch

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Reposted by Duncan Lamont

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Cool post from @duncanlamont2.bsky.social looking at a century of credit spreads, defaults, growth, policy, and asking whether postwar era of ultra-low spreads has returned. www.ft.com/content/0a50...

BBB credit spreads stretching back a century. Currently pretty low, but not as low as they were in the 1940s-1960s

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

🔥Tingly moment: @alphaville.ft.com published my research! Credit spreads look expensive if focus on past 25-30yrs, as many investors do. But they were even lower for several decades after WWII. Why and could it repeat? Thanks due to @tobyn.bsky.social for his input! www.ft.com/content/0a50...

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Top marks to @bryce.lol for encouraging people to donate to Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library in today’s @alphaville.ft.com Further Reading My kids, like many others, have felt joy on her envelope hitting our doormat, anticipating what new book it might contain donate.imaginationlibrary.com

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I boarded a train from Edinburgh to London at 06.26 Because of numerous delays we are currently scheduled to arrive at about 13.24, 7 hours after I departed This is why short-haul flying is popular

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Because it’s deadline day, it’s worth re-examining the similarities between fantasy football and investing Are you a tinkerer, set-and-forgetter, data-junkie, value, growth or momentum player? (not as cringe as it sounds, I promise!) www.schroders.com/en/global/in...

schroders.com

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Anyone else grappling with their PL squad. With Haaland, joao pedro, Fernandes, Gabriel and o’reilly in my squad I have some serious bench fodder to make the numbers work Downgrading Gabriel would make life easier but he scores so many point…

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Fellow Scots: what do you think makes the filling in a macaroon? Not a fancy French macaron, the hard white thing with a coconuty coating that we all ate as kids Guess without looking. I had no idea.

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

There’s a financial markets/economics metaphor here for no matter how badly we screw things up, nature finds a way

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Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

It might not be glamorous but as someone who travels to London regularly for work, and pays my own travel expenses, the fact I can get a clean, quiet and conveniently located Travelodge for £45 on a regular basis is pretty fantastic (for me, less so for them)

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