Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17hThinking about the impact of the triple lock on the state pension can be confusing as there's a number of interacting moving parts (earnings, inflation, 2.5%). 🤷♂️❓ But here's a visualisation that hopefully might help...1/5 43728
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026What's happened to crude oil flows from the Middle East since the US war on Iran began? 🛢️ Has Iran effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz? Or is the Strait now basically open as the US claims? & what's happened to other exit routes? Here's a helpful way of visualising it...📊 👇1/8 22815
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Seems Andy Burnham’s original pledge to deliver the biggest council house building programme “since the post war period” actually means since the early 1980s…. www.gov.uk/government/p... 3176
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Does Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up? My analysis from the BBC website 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukDoes Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up?BBC Verify breaks down what the party says it wants to do to cut the benefits bill - and how realistic it is. 392
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Why are successive governments having to release some prisoners early? My analysis for the BBC website, done with Lucy Gilder ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukEarly prison releases: Why some prisoners are being freed after a third of their sentenceMore people going to prison, and for longer, is why governments including the current one have had to release prisoners early. 764
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/07/2026Was on Newscast this afternoon - along with Alison Holt and Jim Reed - talking about the benefits and costs of social care reform 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...bbc.co.ukNewscast - What is Andy Burnham's Plan to 'Fix' Social Care? - BBC SoundsAnd how will the Prime Minister fund social care reform? 051
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 28/07/2026I analyse the Government's main social care reform options (and their troubled political history) for the BBC website ✍️👇 - Cap on lifetime costs - More generous means test - Free personal care - National care service www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukSocial care: Four ways to reform the systemWith Andy Burnham saying he wants to bring "substantial change" to social care in England, BBC Verify looks at what could be done. 1101
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/07/2026Talking about Burnham’s economic policies on Newsnight 1030pm on BBC2 & iplayer 2181
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Can Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis? My analysis for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukCan Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis?BBC Verify has looked at the scale of the housing challenge facing Burnham when he becomes PM. 021
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 09/07/2026The welfare reform challenge facing Andy Burnham. Rising Personal Independence Payment numbers and rising working-age health and sickness spending - though a flat outlook for non-pensioner welfare as % GDP. My online analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukHow rise in ADHD benefits claims is adding to Andy Burnham's welfare challengeMore than 100,000 people with ADHD as their main condition receive Pip, latest figures show, an increase of 40% since Labour came to power. 290
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 01/07/2026Has Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Burnham? My Verify explainer for BBC online ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukHas Keir Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Andy Burnham?BBC Verify investigates whether it's right to talk of a "black hole" in the government defence investment plan. 031
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/06/2026As the Defence Investment Plan finally sees the light of day, are you confused by all the UK defence spending figures being thrown around by politicians? If so, read our Verify explainer on the BBC website here ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... 174
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026I'll also be discussing this on @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social Tune at 1030pm on BBC! 252
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Should we expect Andy Burnham's devolution plan to actually raise UK economic growth? I examine the evidence in an piece for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukWill Andy Burnham's devolution plan raise economic growth?BBC Verify has looked at what impact further devolution could be expected to have on the UK. 151
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 24/06/2026Is the UK worse off because of Brexit? Watch @rosatkins.bsky.social's deep Verify dive for the BBC's YouTube channel (in which I pop up a few times!) Produced by Katerina Karelli 📺👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-9e...youtube.comIs the UK worse off because of Brexit? | BBC NewsYouTube video by BBC News 2137
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 18/06/2026Weapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others? My analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukWeapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others?BBC Verify examines how the new deal between the US and Iran affects three key areas. 021
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026What is the government planning to spend on defence? And what do critics think it *should* be spending? Here's some context for all the somewhat confusing numbers flying around Thread...1/7 3115
Reposted by Ben ChuBen Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 07/06/2026You’ve probably heard of Henry – the High Earner, Not Rich Yet. But what about his nemesis, Richard – who Retired In a Comfortable House And Refuses to Downsize? There are quite a lot of Richards out there. They’re the subject of my column for today’s Observer. observer.co.uk/news/busines... 13166
Reposted by Ben ChuVictoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire.bsky.social · 05/06/2026EXCL: Andy Burnham’s first broadcast interview since confirming he’d join any potential Labour leadership contest • is ‘sympathetic’ to reversing the gov’s NI rise for employers • asked why he believes he’d be a better PM than Keir Starmer says ‘I’m not getting into that’ 1/2 👇 18608
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 03/06/2026"Protection in an inter-connected world is best achieved therefore through trust and widely followed global rules." Must read from @davidheniguk.bsky.social 👇 262
Reposted by Ben ChuBianca Britton @biancabritton.bsky.social · 02/06/2026Iran has damaged 20 US military sites since the start of the war, satellite images and videos analysed by BBC Verify show, suggesting the attacks are more extensive than publicly acknowledged. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukIran attacks damage 20 US military sites since start of war, satellite images showAnalysts told BBC Verify that Tehran's strikes were more extensive than publicly acknowledged. 075
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/05/2026There's a striking statistic in the Milburn report on NEETs that: "Overall, we estimate that in 2024/25 for every £1 that DWP spent on employment support for young people, around £25 was spent on benefits for young people". Here's where it comes from... www.gov.uk/government/p...gov.ukYoung people and work: interim report analytical annex 141
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 27/05/2026Why are UK energy bills rising again? 📈🔌 The government blames the fallout from the Iran war. The Conservatives are blaming the Government's net zero policies and failure to explore for more North Sea oil and gas. Who is right?...1/10 434
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 22/05/2026I've binge listened to three excellent and engrossing podcast series on BBC Sounds in recent weeks, which I'd thoroughly recommend 🎧 They are... 283
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/05/2026Latest (provisional) estimate of UK net migration is 171k in the 12 months to December 2025 👇 www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula... 162
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 20/05/2026Are concerns about supermarket price gouging valid? And would price control policies work? 4 minute analysis from me for BBC Sounds 📻🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...bbc.co.ukMinisters press supermarkets to cut price of essentials - BBC SoundsBBC Verify's Ben Chu takes a look at whether such a policy would work. 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 19/05/2026What has the economic impact of Brexit been? My Verify report on iPlayer here 📺👇 www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...bbc.co.ukLabour Leadership Speculation Reopens Brexit DebateAlmost ten years on from the Brexit referendum, Ben Chu from BBC Verify looks at what we know about the economic impact of the UK leaving the European Union. 472
Reposted by Ben ChuSoumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 18/05/2026How to Win a Trade War in song form 4477
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/05/2026I'll be talking about the potential economic implications of the the PM trying to put Britain "at the heart of Europe" on the Today programme shortly 📻 050
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/04/2026Getting ready for the Guernsey Literary Festival business breakfast tomorrow 50 copies of my book Exile Economics signed - around 60 to go! 😂 2202
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/04/2026Trump's repeated claims of the imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz HAVE moved the oil price down - but only TEMPORARILY... 4104
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 28/04/2026The UAE produced 3.2 million barrels per day of crude oil in Q1 2026. So OPEC will be losing around 12% of its production capacity with the UAE's departure from the cartel.... 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 23/04/2026Key point from Cat Little's evidence to the Foreign Affairs committee is she sought key info from Olly Robbins in relation to Mandelson's appointment in line with her mission under Parliament's Humble Address - but was told by Robbins it would "not be forthcoming"... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... 152
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 23/04/2026Here's what has happened to detected small boat arrivals across the channel since Labour came to office. This is the raw daily arrival figures...1/5 24329
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/04/2026The key point from Olly Robbins is that, in his view, Mandelson did *not* technically fail vetting - the vetting outcome was the FCDO decision on whether to grant, not any UKSV recommendation as part of that process... 76016
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17/04/2026Prudential national/regional stockpiling ≠ "hoarding" or export restrictions See my book "Exile Economics" on why more stockpiling could be a sensible policy response to the weaponisation of interdependence and anxiety over supply chains... www.ft.com/content/0463...ft.comWelcome to the age of hoardingAs global economic uncertainty mounts, stockpiling is back 120
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 16/04/2026The picture of what's happened to global cocoa prices since 2023 is astonishing - historically massive boom and bust. 👇 Seems to be a combination of failed harvests in West Africa & then severe demand destruction (as retail chocolate prices have not yet fallen & people have bought less)... 131
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Is the US blockade of Iran working? And what exactly IS this blockade? My video analysis for BBC Verify 📺 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...bbc.co.ukStrait of Hormuz: Is the US blockade of Iran working?BBC Verify has been looking into whether the US blockade of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz is working. 011
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Spoke to Newscast along with @helenmiller.bsky.social about UK defence spending yesterday - catch up here 🎧 👇... www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...bbc.co.ukNewscast - Can We Afford To Keep The UK Safe? - BBC SoundsFormer Nato chief warns UK's national security 'in peril'. 140
Reposted by Ben ChuAnthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 03/04/2026Honestly, whenever you hear an argument for self-sufficiency just dip into any chapter in this. Everyone in policy should possess a copy. 172
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 03/04/2026Do nations need to be more independent and self-sufficient when it comes to food and energy? We've been hearing that argument alot recently, for understandable reasons. Here's some relevant data. Short thread 🧵... 11611
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 03/04/2026If you’re looking for a guide to the perils of a world in which economic interdependence is being weaponised and countries are striving for greater self-sufficiency in response, allow me to mention that…Exile Economics has JUST come out in paperback! Order here: linktr.ee/exileeconomi... 1178
Reposted by Ben ChuBen Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 31/03/2026How much more North Sea oil and gas could be extracted by the UK? & what direct impact might this have on UK energy prices? Some relevant data. Thread 🧵...1/17 32924
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 01/04/2026Sharp fall in UK Gilt yields this morning on the back of Trump/Iran comments on war duration overnight. 2 year yields down a hefty 16 basis points - 10 year yields down 13 bp 261
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 31/03/2026How much more North Sea oil and gas could be extracted by the UK? & what direct impact might this have on UK energy prices? Some relevant data. Thread 🧵...1/17 32924
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Either Chad doesn’t really like coffee…or that’s really bad coffee! Either way, this looks like a really good book from two trade supremos - I’m very much looking forward to reading it! 110
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/03/2026The communication from Iran to members of the UN's International Maritme Organization saying that "non-hostile vessels" would have "safe passage" through Hormuz was dated 22 March (Sunday) - but was only reported on 24 March (Tuesday). So why the 2 day delay?... 140
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Very useful data from Vortexa showing Hormuz closure impact - shows daily oil & oil product flow from Middle East versus 2025 average - as of 16 March +3m barrels per day through Saudi's Red Sea pipeline (circled) not enough to offset 20m decline from elsewhere - net loss of 17m barrels per day 062
Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 24/03/2026Some facts to bear in mind in the debate about UK energy "independence". Brief 🧵 The UK still uses a lot of oil and gas - these accounted for around 75% of the total national energy supply in 2024 according to the Energy Institute... www.energyinst.org/statistical-... 3125