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Ben Chu

@benchu.bsky.social
14K followers 469 following 1K posts

Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify. www.benchu.co.uk Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025 linktr.ee/exileeconomics

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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17h
Thinking about the impact of the triple lock on the state pension can be confusing as there's a number of interacting moving parts (earnings, inflation, 2.5%). 🤷‍♂️❓ But here's a visualisation that hopefully might help...1/5
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What's happened to crude oil flows from the Middle East since the US war on Iran began? 🛢️ Has Iran effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz? Or is the Strait now basically open as the US claims? & what's happened to other exit routes? Here's a helpful way of visualising it...📊 👇1/8
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Seems Andy Burnham’s original pledge to deliver the biggest council house building programme “since the post war period” actually means since the early 1980s…. www.gov.uk/government/p...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Does Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up? My analysis from the BBC website 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Does Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up?
BBC Verify breaks down what the party says it wants to do to cut the benefits bill - and how realistic it is.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Why are successive governments having to release some prisoners early? My analysis for the BBC website, done with Lucy Gilder ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Early prison releases: Why some prisoners are being freed after a third of their sentence
More people going to prison, and for longer, is why governments including the current one have had to release prisoners early.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Was on Newscast this afternoon - along with Alison Holt and Jim Reed - talking about the benefits and costs of social care reform 🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
Newscast - What is Andy Burnham's Plan to 'Fix' Social Care? - BBC Sounds
And how will the Prime Minister fund social care reform?
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I analyse the Government's main social care reform options (and their troubled political history) for the BBC website ✍️👇 - Cap on lifetime costs - More generous means test - Free personal care - National care service www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Social care: Four ways to reform the system
With Andy Burnham saying he wants to bring "substantial change" to social care in England, BBC Verify looks at what could be done.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Talking about Burnham’s economic policies on Newsnight 1030pm on BBC2 & iplayer
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Can Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis? My analysis for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Can Andy Burnham solve the housing crisis?
BBC Verify has looked at the scale of the housing challenge facing Burnham when he becomes PM.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
The welfare reform challenge facing Andy Burnham. Rising Personal Independence Payment numbers and rising working-age health and sickness spending - though a flat outlook for non-pensioner welfare as % GDP. My online analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
How rise in ADHD benefits claims is adding to Andy Burnham's welfare challenge
More than 100,000 people with ADHD as their main condition receive Pip, latest figures show, an increase of 40% since Labour came to power.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Has Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Burnham? My Verify explainer for BBC online ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Has Keir Starmer left a £5bn defence funding hole for Andy Burnham?
BBC Verify investigates whether it's right to talk of a "black hole" in the government defence investment plan.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
As the Defence Investment Plan finally sees the light of day, are you confused by all the UK defence spending figures being thrown around by politicians? If so, read our Verify explainer on the BBC website here ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
I'll also be discussing this on @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social Tune at 1030pm on BBC!
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Should we expect Andy Burnham's devolution plan to actually raise UK economic growth? I examine the evidence in an piece for the BBC website ✍️👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Will Andy Burnham's devolution plan raise economic growth?
BBC Verify has looked at what impact further devolution could be expected to have on the UK.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Is the UK worse off because of Brexit? Watch @rosatkins.bsky.social's deep Verify dive for the BBC's YouTube channel (in which I pop up a few times!) Produced by Katerina Karelli 📺👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-9e...
youtube.com
Is the UK worse off because of Brexit? | BBC News
YouTube video by BBC News
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Weapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others? My analysis for BBC online ✍️ 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Weapons, money and ships: How is this Iran deal different from others?
BBC Verify examines how the new deal between the US and Iran affects three key areas.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
What is the government planning to spend on defence? And what do critics think it *should* be spending? Here's some context for all the somewhat confusing numbers flying around Thread...1/7
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
You’ve probably heard of Henry – the High Earner, Not Rich Yet. But what about his nemesis, Richard – who Retired In a Comfortable House And Refuses to Downsize? There are quite a lot of Richards out there. They’re the subject of my column for today’s Observer. observer.co.uk/news/busines...
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Victoria Derbyshire @vicderbyshire.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
EXCL: Andy Burnham’s first broadcast interview since confirming he’d join any potential Labour leadership contest • is ‘sympathetic’ to reversing the gov’s NI rise for employers • asked why he believes he’d be a better PM than Keir Starmer says ‘I’m not getting into that’ 1/2 👇
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
"Protection in an inter-connected world is best achieved therefore through trust and widely followed global rules." Must read from @davidheniguk.bsky.social 👇
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Bianca Britton @biancabritton.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Iran has damaged 20 US military sites since the start of the war, satellite images and videos analysed by BBC Verify show, suggesting the attacks are more extensive than publicly acknowledged. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Iran attacks damage 20 US military sites since start of war, satellite images show
Analysts told BBC Verify that Tehran's strikes were more extensive than publicly acknowledged.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
There's a striking statistic in the Milburn report on NEETs that: "Overall, we estimate that in 2024/25 for every £1 that DWP spent on employment support for young people, around £25 was spent on benefits for young people". Here's where it comes from... www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
Young people and work: interim report analytical annex
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Why are UK energy bills rising again? 📈🔌 The government blames the fallout from the Iran war. The Conservatives are blaming the Government's net zero policies and failure to explore for more North Sea oil and gas. Who is right?...1/10
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
I've binge listened to three excellent and engrossing podcast series on BBC Sounds in recent weeks, which I'd thoroughly recommend 🎧 They are...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Latest (provisional) estimate of UK net migration is 171k in the 12 months to December 2025 👇 www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Are concerns about supermarket price gouging valid? And would price control policies work? 4 minute analysis from me for BBC Sounds 📻🎧👇 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
Ministers press supermarkets to cut price of essentials - BBC Sounds
BBC Verify's Ben Chu takes a look at whether such a policy would work.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
What has the economic impact of Brexit been? My Verify report on iPlayer here 📺👇 www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
bbc.co.uk
Labour Leadership Speculation Reopens Brexit Debate
Almost ten years on from the Brexit referendum, Ben Chu from BBC Verify looks at what we know about the economic impact of the UK leaving the European Union.
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Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 18/05/2026
How to Win a Trade War in song form
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
I'll be talking about the potential economic implications of the the PM trying to put Britain "at the heart of Europe" on the Today programme shortly 📻
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Getting ready for the Guernsey Literary Festival business breakfast tomorrow 50 copies of my book Exile Economics signed - around 60 to go! 😂
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Trump's repeated claims of the imminent opening of the Strait of Hormuz HAVE moved the oil price down - but only TEMPORARILY...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
The UAE produced 3.2 million barrels per day of crude oil in Q1 2026. So OPEC will be losing around 12% of its production capacity with the UAE's departure from the cartel....
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Key point from Cat Little's evidence to the Foreign Affairs committee is she sought key info from Olly Robbins in relation to Mandelson's appointment in line with her mission under Parliament's Humble Address - but was told by Robbins it would "not be forthcoming"... www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Here's what has happened to detected small boat arrivals across the channel since Labour came to office. This is the raw daily arrival figures...1/5
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
The key point from Olly Robbins is that, in his view, Mandelson did *not* technically fail vetting - the vetting outcome was the FCDO decision on whether to grant, not any UKSV recommendation as part of that process...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Prudential national/regional stockpiling ≠ "hoarding" or export restrictions See my book "Exile Economics" on why more stockpiling could be a sensible policy response to the weaponisation of interdependence and anxiety over supply chains... www.ft.com/content/0463...
ft.com
Welcome to the age of hoarding
As global economic uncertainty mounts, stockpiling is back
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
The picture of what's happened to global cocoa prices since 2023 is astonishing - historically massive boom and bust. 👇 Seems to be a combination of failed harvests in West Africa & then severe demand destruction (as retail chocolate prices have not yet fallen & people have bought less)...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Is the US blockade of Iran working? And what exactly IS this blockade? My video analysis for BBC Verify 📺 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/...
bbc.co.uk
Strait of Hormuz: Is the US blockade of Iran working?
BBC Verify has been looking into whether the US blockade of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz is working.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Spoke to Newscast along with @helenmiller.bsky.social about UK defence spending yesterday - catch up here 🎧 👇... www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
Newscast - Can We Afford To Keep The UK Safe? - BBC Sounds
Former Nato chief warns UK's national security 'in peril'.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Reposting this 👇
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Anthony Painter @anthonypainter.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Honestly, whenever you hear an argument for self-sufficiency just dip into any chapter in this. Everyone in policy should possess a copy.
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Do nations need to be more independent and self-sufficient when it comes to food and energy? We've been hearing that argument alot recently, for understandable reasons. Here's some relevant data. Short thread 🧵...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
If you’re looking for a guide to the perils of a world in which economic interdependence is being weaponised and countries are striving for greater self-sufficiency in response, allow me to mention that…Exile Economics has JUST come out in paperback! Order here: linktr.ee/exileeconomi...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
How much more North Sea oil and gas could be extracted by the UK? & what direct impact might this have on UK energy prices? Some relevant data. Thread 🧵...1/17
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Sharp fall in UK Gilt yields this morning on the back of Trump/Iran comments on war duration overnight. 2 year yields down a hefty 16 basis points - 10 year yields down 13 bp
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
How much more North Sea oil and gas could be extracted by the UK? & what direct impact might this have on UK energy prices? Some relevant data. Thread 🧵...1/17
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Either Chad doesn’t really like coffee…or that’s really bad coffee! Either way, this looks like a really good book from two trade supremos - I’m very much looking forward to reading it!
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
The communication from Iran to members of the UN's International Maritme Organization saying that "non-hostile vessels" would have "safe passage" through Hormuz was dated 22 March (Sunday) - but was only reported on 24 March (Tuesday). So why the 2 day delay?...
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Very useful data from Vortexa showing Hormuz closure impact - shows daily oil & oil product flow from Middle East versus 2025 average - as of 16 March +3m barrels per day through Saudi's Red Sea pipeline (circled) not enough to offset 20m decline from elsewhere - net loss of 17m barrels per day
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Ben Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Some facts to bear in mind in the debate about UK energy "independence". Brief 🧵 The UK still uses a lot of oil and gas - these accounted for around 75% of the total national energy supply in 2024 according to the Energy Institute... www.energyinst.org/statistical-...
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