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Matt Ashby

@mattashby.com
2K followers 341 following 1.8K posts

I help people use data to reduce crime. Associate Professor, Crime Science, UCL. Former police officer. 🌐: mattashby.com

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 23h
This huge replication (🇺🇸) of the 'Koper curve' on how long hotspot patrols should last reinforces the original findings: patrols are effective once cops are in a hotspot for 15 mins, after which staying in that area has no extra crime-prevention effect. doi.org/10.1111/1745...
doi.org
https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.70039
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 29/09/2026
Useful estimates in this paper of how long it takes for crimes of different types of be reported and recorded (🇺🇸), i.e. how long it takes for crime data to be 'stable' enough for research and analysis. For most types, >90% are reported within 14 days. doi.org/10.1080/0741...
doi.org
Browse all journals
Browse all journals
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Margot Finn @eicathomefinn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
'The Westminster government’s contribution to funding domestic undergraduates studying in England fell in real terms from £8.9 billion in 2012-13 to just £3.3bn in 2024-25, a drop of more than 60 per cent, an analysis has found.'
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 28/09/2026
This paper finds the 'iron rule' that most crimes happen in a small number of places applies equally in an African city (Abuja, 🇳🇬) and when measured using data from a door-to-door survey rather than police data (which is limited by under-reporting). doi.org/10.1057/s413...
doi.org
Measuring crime concentration without police data: evidence from Suburban Abuja, Nigeria - Crime Prevention and Community Safety
This study examines crime in suburban Abuja, Nigeria, to assess whether the patterns of crime concentration commonly identified in developed contexts are also evident in an understudied, data-poor…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 25/09/2026
Previous research has found sending offenders a letter can have a surprisingly big effect on behaviour, but this paper (🇳🇱) found that didn't work to prevent people texting while driving: the letter in this case had no effect on the chance of reoffending. doi.org/10.1080/1561...
doi.org
The effect of a procedural justice and deterrence-based letter on recidivism for smartphone use while driving in the Netherlands: a randomized controlled trial
This study evaluates the effectiveness of a Dutch police intervention conducted in March 2025 targeting drivers sanctioned for using a smartphone in traffic. As part of the intervention, individual...
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 24/09/2026
This paper (🇨🇱) finds more pedestrians (who are both 'eyes on the street' who might protect against crime, and potential targets of it) doesn't lead to any increase in theft until a critical crowd density is reached, after which theft rises sharply. doi.org/10.21428/cb6...
doi.org
Eyes on the Street, Threshold Dynamics, and Property Crime
Why do crowded streets sometimes deter crime and sometimes attract it? Pedestrian volume can reduce crime through informal surveillance (“eyes on the street”) or raise it by expanding anonymity and…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 24/09/2026
If you’re an emergency service that’s still encouraging people to use What3Words to locate themselves in an emergency, you might want to consider how likely it is the service will still be running given it’s run by a private company that loses millions every year.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026
Having had a great week at #EuroCrim2026 catching up with colleagues and their research, it’s time to head home. But fortunately not by plane! Should be an easy and simple train journey with only (!) 3 changes: Berlin, Cologne and Brussels. As long as Deutsche Bahn plays ball. 😬 Wish me luck! 🧵
View looking up an escalator inside a tunnel with curved, highly reflective metal walls and ceiling. The escalator is inside a Warsaw metro station. The mirrored surfaces distort and repeat the lights, escalators and passengers, creating a tunnel-like effect. Several people ride upwards towards a bright, glass-roofed opening at the top.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 07/09/2026
Large survey finds police in England and Wales say “ill-fitting, inconsistent or low-quality uniforms [undermine] confidence, pride and their ability to present a professional image”. I doubt 46 forces each having slightly different uniforms helps. doi.org/10.1093/bjc/...
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Negotiating (un)professionalism in police uniforms: A Corpus-Assisted Critical Discourse Analysis of officers’ and staff experiences
Abstract. This article examines how police officers and staff understand police uniforms as shaping professionalism, internal legitimacy and the public per
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 02/09/2026
Young Black men are over-represented among homicide offenders, but the typical homicide offender in England and Wales is an unemployed White man in his 20s who’s known to the victim (either as a partner/relative or friend/acquaintance) and has drug/alcohol issues. lesscrime.info/post/homicid...
lesscrime.info
Homicide in England and Wales, Part 3: Homicide offenders – Matt Ashby
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Ethnonationalism, to put it politely. (Source: www.kcl.ac.uk/news/public-...)
Graph showing: The public wrongly assume most people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority. In fact, 64% are white – but the public's median guess is just 45%. Conversely, they overestimate the ethnic-minority share, putting it at 55% when the reality is 35%.
And Reform UK supporters are most wide of the mark on both measures, guessing just 30% of homicide convicts are white and as many as 70% are from an ethnic minority.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 31/08/2026
A lovely week cycling round Lake Constance (🇩🇪🇨🇭🇦🇹) in glorious sunshine. 😊
 Sunset over Lake Constance, with calm water reflecting a pink and orange sky. A dark silhouette of trees and a small harbour extends into the lake, with low hills visible on the distant shore.Moonlight over Lake Constance at dusk. A bright moon hangs above dark mountains on the opposite shore, casting a long silver reflection across the deep-blue water.    Colourful pumpkins and gourds beside Lake Constance. Wooden crates filled with orange, yellow, green and white pumpkins sit in front of a lush green field and hillside under a bright blue sky.The Rhine Falls in Switzerland, with white water rushing over broad rocky falls and around large rocks in the foreground. A large historic building stands on the wooded hillside above the falls.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 19/08/2026
Introducing fixed automatic number plate recognition cameras was associated with decreases in motor-vehicle theft, an increase in the proportion of vehicle thefts that were solved and with stolen vehicles being recovered by police slightly faster.
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Working Paper: Automated License Plate Readers, Vehicle Theft, and Clearance
Do fixed automated license plate reader (ALPR) networks reduce motor vehicle theft or improve case outcomes? We use the staggered deployment of fixed ALPRs supplied by Flock Safety across 216 U.S.…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 18/08/2026
This paper argues police efforts to improve internal equity, diversity and inclusion (e.g. by implementing procedural justice in disciplinary matters) should be considered as investments in "legitimacy infrastructure" to improve public confidence. doi.org/10.21428/cb6...
doi.org
Beyond the Business Case: Reframing EDI as Legitimacy Infrastructure in Policing
This article argues that police services should not defend Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion (EDI) primarily through the private-sector “business case”. Although claims about performance, efficiency,…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 17/08/2026
In a lab experiment, witnesses viewed police officers (🇺🇸) as more professional and attentive when officers took notes in a paper notebook rather than on a smartphone. Phones are obviously more useful, but may be a barrier between officers and public. doi.org/10.1007/s112...
doi.org
Back to the basics: experimental evidence on officers’ note-taking modality during routine police encounters - Journal of Experimental Criminology
Objectives Despite numerous evaluations assessing public perceptions of specialized police equipment, few studies have examined how citizens perceive officers’ use of everyday tools, such as mobile…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/08/2026
Two absolutely fantastic experiences (illustrated with two bad photos) in one evening. Both completely brilliant.
A partial solar eclipse Gustavo Dudamel conducting the Los Angeles Philharmonic in the Royal Albert Hall
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/08/2026
How much violence is there in London compared to the US? The Economist website covers our research on benchmarking crime in London against other global cities. www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
economist.com
Is Europe safer than America?
A novel dataset provides some surprising answers
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 11/08/2026
AI tools can be used to effectively help human police staff (🇬🇧) better identify potential markers of vulnerability (eg mental illness, substance misuse) in police call logs, but aren’t reliable enough to do that task alone.
crimrxiv.com
Using Fine-Tuned LLMs to Identify Indicators of Vulnerability in UK Police Incident Logs
Purpose: Understanding how much of routine policing involves vulnerable people could inform resourcing, training, and multi-agency response, yet administrative data provide limited insight. We…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 09/08/2026
Short thread on how some economics journals are (and, crucially, aren’t) using generative AI in the publishing process. I already get ChatGPT to ‘review’ all my papers before I submit them and find that very useful in catching issues, but I’d like to see crim journals adopt these tools too.
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Helen Barnard @helenbarnard.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Deep-seated contradiction always at the heart of criminal justice policy: - We have good evidence of what works for rehabilitation & that's what reduces reoffending & increases public safety. - But the public want offenders punished & believe harsh punishment deters. Regardless of the evidence.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 09/08/2026
Well this never gets old!
View looking upward at the domed ceiling of the Royal Albert Hall for the BBC Proms, illuminated in vivid red and purple, with large spherical acoustic diffusers suspended around a central circular lighting rig. Stage lighting and BBC Proms signs are visible at the bottom of the image.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 07/08/2026
Increasingly 'corporate' organised crime groups (🇸🇪) use external 'contractors' and 'decoys' (often via specialist brokers) for gang killings and compartmentalise their activities to minimise the risks of detection. Nice application of crime scripting: doi.org/10.21428/cb6...
doi.org
Homicide planning by Organized Crime Groups in Sweden
In recent years, homicides linked to organized criminal groups (OCGs) in Sweden have increased sharply, coinciding with changes in their modus operandi. Despite growing concern in Sweden and…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 06/08/2026
Residents of neighbourhoods with very high violence (🇺🇸) who believed police act fairly and without racial bias were much more likely to say they’d give police information about a homicide, compared to residents who believe police are biased.
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Perceived Bias in Homicide Investigations and Public Cooperation: Evidence from a Community-Engaged Study in High-Violence Neighborhoods
The long-term decline in homicide clearance rates has persisted even as homicide levels fluctuate, underscoring the need to better understand the forces that shape investigative outcomes and public engagement...
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 05/08/2026
New paper by @lisatompson.bsky.social points out there’s lots of evidence of disparities in how policing affects different groups, but surprisingly little evidence of *why*. It’s very easy to jump to conclusions, but it’s unlikely any one explanation tells the whole story.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 04/08/2026
This detailed review of what we know about gun-shot detection systems (eg Shot Spotter) explains how thin evidence of their effectiveness is, despite them having been studied quite a lot and police (🇺🇸) spending a lot of money on them.
doi.org
Assessing the Impact of Gunshot Detection Technology: Methodologies, Analytical Approaches, and Insights
This chapter examines the implementation and impact of gunshot detection technology (GDT) by law enforcement agencies across the United States. While GDT holds promise for enhancing police response…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 03/08/2026
A useful summary of ways in which generative AI tools can be used to support intelligence analysis relating to protecting high-profile individuals, and some of the challenges.
doi.org
https://doi.org/10.1111/lcrp.70054
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 31/07/2026
Using civil banning orders – similar to the laws used to proscribe terrorist groups – against outlaw motorcycle gangs involved in organised crime (🇳🇱) had no effect on offending by members of those groups.
doi.org
Civil Bans on Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs and Their Effect on Members’ Criminal Careers in Netherlands - European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research
Outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMCGs) are a cause of growing concern, not least because their members are found to be disproportionately engaged in serious and organized crime. As of 2020, upon request of…
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Tube Mapper- Luke Agbaimoni @tubemapper.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
I love capturing those moments where London Underground trains line up perfectly with station posters. With a little patience and a bit of luck, you can end up with some wonderfully amusing and unexpected shots.
Poster looks like it's pointing a gun at a train Spiderman poster looks like it's riding on a train Dancer on a pister looks like she is running away from a train Witch looks like she is reaching out to a train
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 30/07/2026
More research symposia should take place in sunny gardens. Thanks @jpinasanchez.eurosky.social and @ianloader.bsky.social for organising!
A group of people sitting on the grass in front of a screen of bushes. The people are looking at a man who is standing and speaking to them. The people are dressed casually and the scene is bathed in sunlight.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 30/07/2026
After being Taser trained, police (🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿) tended to use Taser when they would have used other tactics like restraint. But that didn’t lead to any change in the likelihood of officer or subject being injured. (NB, though: not a randomised trial)
crimrxiv.com
Taser Training, Injury and the Tactical Mix of Police Recorded Use of Force: Evidence from London
Taser rollout rests on a two-part promise: control at a distance should replace close-contact force and reduce injury. Using 579,524 Metropolitan Police use-of-force reports from 2018–2021, we…
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Callum May @callummay.co.uk · 29/07/2026
Shout out to the man on the train calling his bank about ID theft and who has read his name, postcode, and the long number on his card to the whole carriage.
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University of Manchester School of Social Sciences @uomsoss.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Women's experiences of roads and transport networks are not always fully reflected in the evidence used to inform road safety policy and planning. A new study aims to better understand women's experiences of travel and road safety across Greater Manchester www.manchester.ac.uk/about/news/w...
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 28/07/2026
New tech can create new crime opportunities. If tech isn’t designed so it blocks these opportunities, new tech can cause a crime boom. I played a small part in this paper that tries to spot crime opportunities created by climate change mitigation tech e.g. renewable energy.
doi.org
Redirecting
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 27/07/2026
Is crime in London ‘through the roof’? No. In comparison to other major global cities, people in London are fairly safe from most types of crime, as I talk about on this week’s episode of More or Less:
bbc.co.uk
BBC Radio 4 - More or Less, Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?
How does violent crime in London compare to other global cities?
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Lizzie Dearden @lizziedearden.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
ChatGPT requests are starting to turn up as evidence in criminal trials and these ones are going to be hard to beat
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 16/07/2026
Systematic review finds increases in temperature are associated with increases in violence, including domestic abuse and sexual violence, but we need more evidence on the how that varies in different contexts, especially as extreme heat gets more common. doi.org/10.1177/1524...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 14/07/2026
New review (🇬🇧) finds government is ‘indifferent’ to fraud (the most-common victim-based crime), police are woefully ill-equipped to fight it and social-media platforms face no consequences for enabling it. Really hope this brings change!
gov.uk
Fraud in the Digital Age
The second report from the from the Independent Review of Disclosure and Fraud Offences, chaired by Jonathan Fisher KC.
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European Network for Open Criminology @opencriminology.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
📢 Interested in collaborative replication, open science, and research methods in criminology? Join us at the inaugural meeting of #CRIMLabs, a new international Many Labs initiative, at @opencriminology.bsky.social pre-conference meeting (9 Sept 2026). Details in the leaflet 👇
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
I think opinion writers should just collectively agree that nothing is a panacea or a silver bullet so it wasn't felt necessary to say so all the time.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 09/07/2026
The wonders of academic publishing: a paper about crime at Notting Hill Carnival desk rejected by The *London* Journal because it’s not focused enough on London. The paper is entirely and exclusively about one of the most controversial aspects of one London’s most important events. 🤷‍♂️ 😔
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Odd This Day @oddthisday.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
On this day in 1981, Richard Cobb got an honorary degree from the University of Essex. That may not seem significant to you, but it makes this afternoon the 45th anniversary of one of the finest graduation addresses ever delivered 🧵
A grey slate plaque with white lettering reads: Historian Richard Cobb got an honorary degree here on a sweltering day in 1981. His speech, in full: “Well, it’s very hot and the pubs are open.”
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 07/07/2026
Police officers (🇺🇸) make fewer traffic stops towards the end of a shift, but the stops they do make are more likely to result in finding offences. Suggests cops are able to predict pretty well before a stop how likely they are to find something.
doi.org
Tough Shift: The Temporal Dynamics of Police Discretion - Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Purpose Estimate the causal effect of shift timing on discretionary police behavior. We test whether patrol officers’ enforcement activity changes near the end of shift and whether stop selectivity…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 06/07/2026
Useful review of what we know (and what we don't) about police responses to people in mental-health crises, including training (typically not much), the effectiveness of co-responding between police and health (uncertain) and what we don't yet know (lots). link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
De Facto Mental Health Responders: A Contemporary Systematic Literature Review of Police Encounters with Persons Experiencing Mental Illness - Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology
Police are often becoming primary responders to people experiencing mental illness (PMI), frequently managing crises that fall outside traditional law enforcement roles. Police-PMI encounters are…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 03/07/2026
Interesting survey results showing most public-policy researchers use AI tools in research (despite few receiving any training), but in a limited way and despite having concerns. Most wanted better guidelines from professional bodies and universities: policyviz.com/2026/07/01/a...
policyviz.com
Many Researchers Use AI. Most Want Their Professional Associations to Help. - PolicyViz
APPAM's 2026 member survey reveals how public policy researchers are using AI tools—and where confidence, training, and clear standards are falling short.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 02/07/2026
School breaks in Sweden lead to fewer assaults (children aren't concentrated together at school) but more residential burglaries (homes are empty while people are on holiday). Which is a useful reminder to analyse different crime types *separately*! link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
School Breaks and Crime: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Sweden - Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Objectives: We estimate the causal effect of school holidays on crime by exploiting the staggered timing of the Swedish winter sports break (sportlov) across municipalities. Methods: We use a…
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 29/06/2026
People in London support police using AI for a wide variety of tasks including translation, identifying high-risk repeat offenders and prioritising deployment. They do feel it’s important to have a human in the loop, though. www.police-foundation.org.uk/news/new-res...
Alt text:

Horizontal stacked bar chart titled “Support and opposition to police uses of AI”. Respondents were asked: “To what extent would you support or oppose the police using AI for each of the following purposes?” Each bar is divided into five categories: strongly oppose (dark burgundy), somewhat oppose (pink), neither (grey), somewhat support (light blue), and strongly support (green). Support is highest for fast translation for non-English speakers (66% support) and safeguarding vulnerable people faster (64% support, 17% neutral, 16% oppose). Around six in ten support using AI for predicting where police resources are needed (63%), linking related crimes (64%), identifying serious or repeat offenders and victims (63%), assisting with cold cases (62%), detecting internal police misconduct (62%), automating record-keeping and administration (61%), and managing deployments during busy periods (57%). Support is weaker for reducing civilian staff to fund frontline policing (45% support, 25% neutral, 26% oppose), predicting which individuals will offend (44% support, 24% neutral, 27% oppose), and assisting judges and jurors (43% support, 23% neutral, 30% oppose), the latter attracting the greatest opposition. Overall, support exceeds opposition for every proposed use.
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John Bull @garius.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
The way I've gotten this across in talks to US audiences is to explain that by the time the Battle of Gettysburg was fought... ...the London Underground had already been open for six months.
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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 26/06/2026
Fantastic @reducingcrime.com podcast discussion between my colleague Shane Johnson and @jerryratcliffe.net on some of the many ways all types of crime are changing due to technology. Essential listening if you’re interested in crime of any sort.
m.soundcloud.com
#96 (Shane Johnson)
Stream #96 (Shane Johnson) by Reducing Crime on desktop and mobile. Play over 320 million tracks for free on SoundCloud.
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