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Peter Matejic

@statspeter.bsky.social
1.5K followers 1.4K following 151 posts

Chief Analyst, Insights and Analysis, at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation working to solve UK Poverty

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
What do DWP feel are the most important research questions facing them over the next 5 to 10 years? Read this doc... www.gov.uk/government/p....
gov.uk
DWP Areas of Research Interest 2026
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Interesting inflation data today, with the expected rise not coming. It is basically a story of inflation in everything bar transport going down a tad and thus counter-balancing a big rise there. 1/4
A chart showing the contribution to changes in CPI by category. Transport is driving inflation up. Communications is marginally doing the same.  Education and health have a neutral effect, while the other eight categories are driving this downwards, with food having the largest downwards influence. The net effect of all these changes are that inflation is stable.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Interesting policy fellowships: www.ukri.org/opportunity/.... Two I'd highlight: 1. DWP to develop evidence of the causal links between experience of poverty and subsequent outcomes. 2. DfT on transport poverty and how improving transport affordability and connectivity.
ukri.org
Sector transition: UKRI policy fellowships 2026
Apply for this sector transition fellowship to transfer knowledge and skills across academic and policy sectors and increase sector porosity.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Just left #CHASMConference2026. Lots of food for thought about dimensions of insecurity, their interactions and the role of power and agency in how lives play out. Follow @chasm-uob.bsky.social for more insights and thanks to everyone involved.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Great thread from @rachelcasey.bsky.social. One of the key messages is don't forget the role of childhood poverty in any discussion of what's needed to reduce the number of NEETs.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
The @healthfoundation.bsky.social have now looked at how this compares with 20 other high-income countries: health.org.uk/reports-and-.... Picture is grim. The UK saw the second biggest fall in healthy life expectancy over the decade to 2021, beaten only by the US.
A horizontal bar chart showing the change in healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries over the decade to 2021.  Norway and Japan saw the biggest improvements of an extra year of healthy life, while the United States saw the biggest fall of over 2 years of healthy life.  The UK saw a fall of 8 months.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Join us! This is a very important role, working with some brilliant analysts (and others!)
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
We may yet see a fall from 3.3% in the April data (out in May) because of falls in the April energy price cap, and falling wage growth and a fading impact from higher employer NICs causing a falling inflation rate in services. But sadly the predicted return to ~target level won't happen.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
See a resurrected JRF chart showing how disappointing real wage growth has been since September 2024, compared to the year before then. And this is before any impacts from the Iran conflict. Earnings up £1.40/wk over last 17 months, compared to £11.60/wk up in the prev 12 months.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation.  The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year.  This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.3% over 17 months to February 2026.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
How long have you got to live and live healthily? It’s well known that people in less deprived areas live longer. Let’s look at a boy born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas. They can expect to live 10 years fewer than a boy born in the least deprived tenth of areas.
A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 72.3 years, 10.4 years less than the 83.6 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
This is a precis of an excellent paper from @jelliott94.bsky.social, Rosie Worsdale and Ruby Blower at JRF. Do skim the thread or better still, read the paper.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
The story in yesterday’s poverty data? A small rise in poverty in Labour’s first year, up by 500k to 13.4 million in 2024/25. ⬆️working-age adults in poverty went up by 300k ⬆️number of pensioner in poverty went up by 200k ↔️child poverty stayed flat. More action needed! 1/7
An infographic saying that there were around 13.4 million people were in poverty in 2024/25, a rise of 500,000 in overall poverty between 2023/24 and 2024/25.  This was made up of:
4.0 million children (no change)
7.7 million working-age adults [up 300k]
1.7 million pensioners [up 200k]
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
On 26th March, new poverty stats are out. They'll look different though, with one of the biggest ever changes in methodology. Read why this is short-term pain for long-term gain, and why the changes are a bit like this Formula 1 season: linkedin.com/pulse/next-g...
linkedin.com
Next generation poverty statistics
On the 26 March, we will see new, improved poverty statistics in Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)’s Households Below Average Income Statistics. Here's what you need to know.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Speedy analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social . This is how modelled household incomes evolve over the Parliament after deducting housing costs. It's a disappointing picture. Let's hope the Government beat the forecasts, although the headwinds from the current conflict shouldn't be underestimated.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Pleased to talk through @jrf-uk.bsky.social evidence on the impact on society of the pandemic today at @ukcovid-19inquiry.bsky.social. We need to learn from people's insight and lived experience, and I want to thank everyone we worked with or who provided info during extraordinarily stressful times.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Following #UKPoverty2026, more warning signs flashing. As well as describing problem of insufficient income from work, the Minimum Income Standard helps the solution as the key data source for the Real Living Wage ‪‪@livingwageuk.bsky.social‬‬. Even with falling inflation, costs continue to bite.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Do send in any questions - we have an excellent team of analysts ready to answer any questions you have!
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
You can probably tell this isn't my natural forte (!), but we wanted to get the message out about how action is needed to lower poverty levels in the UK. If you want to hear more (including from me), join our webinar at 10.30: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....
jrf.org.uk
UK Poverty 2026 launch webinar
Join the UK Poverty 2026 launch webinar to hear about all the findings in our flagship report. Thursday 29 January 2026, 10.30am–12pm
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
One of the highlights of this and previous years' reports was working with the Grassroots Poverty Action Group. It's important to hear real stories and struggles, and not just reduce this to a commentary on statistics, up or down. Policies and decisions have real impacts!
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
This was an enormous amount of work from folk across @jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.
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Reposted by Peter Matejic
Sam Tims @sam-tims.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.
DWP modelling shows a fall of 400,000 in child poverty over the current Parliament.  This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.
When looked at on as similar a basis as possible, OBR data shows a very flat profile from Q4 2025 to Q4 2029, whereas JRF shows a very small rise over the period, which turns into a fall once housing costs is taken into account.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.
DWP modelling show a fall of 400,000 over the current Parliament.  This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.
Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, child poverty rose by 900,000 in total.  This is entirely due to increases in poverty in families with three or more children, with a small fall in poverty for smaller families over the period.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation.  The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year.  This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.4%.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation.  The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year.  This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero.  Between September 2023 and August 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.2%.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation.  The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year.  This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero.  Between September 2023 and July 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.1%.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation.  The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year.  This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero.  Between September 2023 and June 2024, wages grew 1.9%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.2%.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.
A chart comparing whole economy and private sector regular annual wage growth to CPI and CPIH inflation from September 2024 to December 2025, with the second half of 2025 being based on forecast data.  Between December 2024 and December 2025 wage growth is falling, while from September 2024 to September 2025, inflation is rising, such that forecasts for annual private sector wage growth no longer exceeds forecast CPIH by around September 2025 and no longer exceeds forecast CPI by around December 2025.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation.  The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year.  This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero.  Between September 2023 and May 2024, wages grew 1.8%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.3%.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...
lboro.ac.uk
Loughborough expert urges focus on outcomes, not targets, in pension reform
Earlier in the week, the government announced they will bring back the Pensions Commission, as current workers face the harsh reality that they are at a greater risk of poverty in retirement than thei...
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.
bbc.co.uk
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Come join @jrf-uk.bsky.social! These are really important roles, helping us to achieve real *positive* change.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Indeed - huge kudos to @learnworkuk.bsky.social for their great work here.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.
Quote card saying "Disabled people who are able to work already find it much more difficult to find suitable work that accommodates their needs. Today’s falling number of vacancies is just another complicating factor that exposes the need to rethink the government’s fundamentally unworkable plans to cut disability benefits.

The Government's increase in employment support is expected to help, at most, 95,000 disabled people into work covering just 3% of people at risk of having their disability benefits cut. This employment support is desperately needed to remove the barriers disabled people face as are reforms to boost the quality of jobs through the Employment Rights Bill. But even the best support is undermined by the harsh extent of impending cuts.

The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker."
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Well done to @rachelcasey.bsky.social and @jelliott94.bsky.social for their great work looking at how to unlock the potential of young people furthest from the labour market, which should definitely be a Govt top priority: www.jrf.org.uk/work/unlocki.... Give it a read!
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
See www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert... for some excellent work from @carlaonion.bsky.social looking at deep poverty in Scotland, which needed a lot of work to understand FRS data for Scotland.
jrf.org.uk
Children being left behind: deep poverty among families in Scotland
As we approach the next Scottish election, parties aspiring to government must radically up their game to help the 80,000 children in very deep poverty.
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk
Rob Kent-Smith to Peter Schofield: Increase in the number of people on Universal Credit
Dear Sir Peter We have received a number of complaints relating to a press release published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) on 13 March entitled ‘Almost two million people on Universal...
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
This is now being investigated by the Statistics Regulator, following three separate complaints, including from me. See issues log at osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/casework/.
osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk
Casework
As the Authority’s regulatory arm, Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) is responsible for managing its casework function, undertaking monitoring to identify issues and investigating issues raised w...
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Busy day of analysis ahead - sadly looks like we'll be adding extra loses to these example families (see itv.com/news/2025-03...). Follow @jrf-uk.bsky.social for our insights.
itv.com
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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
In terms of PIP cuts, I have been thinking about the basic maths of needing a 4 within a score of 8 for standard daily living PIP component. Given there is only one 3pt score, those newly missing out will have difficulties in at least 4 areas.
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