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Raúl Duarte González

@rduartegonzalez.bsky.social
455 followers 761 following 19 posts

Postdoc at Yale @yaleeconomics.bsky.social - prev. Ph.D. in Political Economy & Government @gsas.harvard.edu & @harvardkennedy.bsky.social | political economy + development + public finance. From 🇵🇾 raulduarte.org

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Reposted by Raúl Duarte González
VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
A lab experiment in Côte d’Ivoire finds that making applications for cash support public reduced unsuccessful claims but also deterred more than one in four eligible participants.
Public applications reduced unsuccessful claims and programme coverage
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"so this is fun, and exactly what i wanted, but now lets try one that actually is educational" This is actually pretty impressive. It kept the constraint of multiple genres but did a nice job explaining recursion, in its programming meaning, in an interesting and accessible way.
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Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
While everyone fixates on manufacturing and re-industrialization, it is services that is experiencing a productivity revolution. The revolution is global and taking place in some of the most labor-intensive sectors. My latest www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/s...
project-syndicate.org
The Quiet Revolution in Services
Dani Rodrik explains why strong productivity growth in the sector is as welcome as it is unexpected.
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Peter Sagal @petersagal.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
In his speech yesterday, Canada PM Mark Carney seemed to try to explain to the President what a “trade deficit” is. You’re not just giving another country 100s of millions of dollars… You’re buying things from them! That you want!
Another prominent justification for U.S. tariffs has been their claim that, since the United States runs a trade deficit with Canada, we were "ripping them off"
But the United States' narrow merchandise trade deficit only exists because the U.S. buys so much of its energy from us.
Canada fuels American growth: supplying 99% of their natural gas imports, 85% of electricity imports, and 60% of crude oil imports. I don't think they want us to stop sending it.
And the comprehensive U.S.-Canada trade balance, which includes the many services - from finance to entertainment - that we buy from the U.S. shows a persistent American trade surplus.
Most fundamentally, trade is about building mutual strength - creating a relationship that benefits both countries.
For example, Canada is the largest customer for U.S. cars - in fact, we buy more American-built cars than the United Kingdom, Japan, and China combined.
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Forthcoming in the AER: "Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technological Progress During the British Industrial Revolution" by Hans-Joachim Voth, Bruno Caprettini, and Alex Trew.
aeaweb.org
Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technological Progress During the British Industrial Revolution
(Forthcoming Article) - We establish a link between labor scarcity and the adoption of labor-saving technology in industrializing England. During the Napoleonic Wars, more than 10 percent of the male population served in the armed forces. Where recruitment was heavy, more machines economizing on labor were adopted. Naval recruitment, instrumented by warships’ coastal access, provides exogenous variation in labor scarcity and suggests that the link between labor shortages and adoption is causal. Where mechanical skills were abundant, the impact of labor scarcity on adoption appears to be larger.
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NBER @nber.org · 17/07/2026
Data from 380 trillion tokens of AI consumption across more than 400 models (2 percent of global AI consumption) shows detailed effects of AI on firms, markets, and workers, from Nicola Borri, Aleh Tsyvinski, and Yukun Liu www.nber.org/papers/w35451
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Tab C @drtcombs.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Y'all, please comment. We've got 6 hours left. Make them matter.
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International Development Economics Association @ideadevecon.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Welcome to IDEA!
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Fable's implementation of Borges's Library of Babel, finished posthumously by Opus 4.8. Quite accurate to the story. It is multiplayer (others appear as ghosts). You can locate key volumes, like the weights of GPT-1 & the code to the Library sim itself: borges-library-of-babel.netlify.app
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Jessica Leight @leightjessica.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Today's cool young researcher #econtwitter #econsky is @rduartegonzalez, a brand-new PhD (congrats!) currently a postdoc at Yale and soon joining FIU who works on topics related to political economy + governance in LMICs
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Katie Drummond @katie-drummond.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
How interesting that Meta called @wired.com "dishonest" and then (quietly) removed the face-recognition system it had previously (also quietly) integrated into an app downloaded onto 50 million phones. Dishonest!
wired.com
Meta Deletes Face-Recognition System From Its Smart Glasses App After WIRED Report
The code WIRED identified is gone from the latest version of Meta AI, the companion app for the company’s smart glasses. Meta won’t say why or whether it’s coming back.
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NBER @nber.org · 08/06/2026
US drinking water pollution has fallen rapidly; Safe Drinking Water Act loans reduce pollution and save lives. Analyzing 266 million pollution readings, from Keiser, @bhashmazumder.bsky.social, @davidmolitor.bsky.social, and @joseph-s-shapiro.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35288
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The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · 05/06/2026
“Ticket prices are astronomical, demand has slumped, and hotels are half-empty”: @jonlemire.bsky.social on whether the World Cup’s return to the U.S. can be saved: theatln.tc/utyz0o1k 📸: Charly Triballeau / AFP / Getty
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NBER @nber.org · 31/05/2026
New evidence on Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act: tariff hikes cut targeted imports sharply, with costs borne mainly by US importers, reducing welfare by about 0.2 percent of GDP, from Kris James Mitchener and Mathieu Pedemonte www.nber.org/papers/w35249
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Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
"Social Density, Clientelism, and Community Benefits" by Jeremy Spater and Erik Wibbels. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
BlueSky is a great place to post about AI with as long as most people on BlueSky don't notice that you are posting about AI.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 29/03/2026
Did a series of videos with Markus Brunnermeier on Claude Code (more to come) Video 1: Getting Started with CC open.substack.com/pub/paulgp/p...
open.substack.com
Getting Started with Claude Code: A Researcher’s Setup Guide
Video 1 in a series on Claude Code
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Raúl Duarte González @rduartegonzalez.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
After a long job market spanning multiple disciplines, I am glad to share I will join @fiu.bsky.social as an AP of Economics in 2027, after a postdoc at the Cowles Foundation at Yale @yaleeconomics.bsky.social s.bsky.social with their new Political Economy program! cowles.yale.edu/political-ec...
cowles.yale.edu
Political Economy
Political Economy is a growing and interdisciplinary field at Yale, bridging the Departments of Economics and Political Science. Faculty include leading scholars who study the intersection of economic...
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NBER @nber.org · 27/02/2026
Examining what to tax when artificial general intelligence erodes the traditional tax bases of labor income and consumption, from @akorinek.bsky.social and Lee Lockwood www.nber.org/papers/w34873
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Hilary Davidson @fourredshoes.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
FYI, Academia.edu has changed its terms of service to give an irrevocable worldwide license for anything uploaded to its site to be used for generative AI. I do not consent to this and have pulled all my papers.
academia.edu
Academia.edu - Find Research Papers, Topics, Researchers
Academia.edu is the platform to share, find, and explore 50 Million research papers. Join us to accelerate your research needs & academic interests.
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𝙽𝚊𝚜𝚑 𝙸𝚜 𝙷𝚎𝚛𝚎 𝙵𝚘𝚛 𝙸𝚝 @nashishereforit.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Wow.
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NEP-PBE: Public Economics @repec-nep-pbe.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
No Taxation Without Administration: Bringing The State Back Into The Public Finance Of Developing Countries: Jonathan L. Weigel
d.repec.org
NEP/RePEc link
to paper
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
Causal inference is my passion.
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Raúl Duarte González @rduartegonzalez.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New IGC blog post w/ my advisor Anders Jensen: how AI can reshape tax administration by detecting evasion, targeting audits, and improving taxpayer services. Where does AI add real value, and where does it fall short? www.theigc.org/blogs/intell...
theigc.org
Intelligent taxation and AI: Promises and pitfalls
Artificial intelligence is reshaping tax administration, from audit targeting to taxpayer services—yet real gains depend on data, governance, and implementation
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Patricia Cohen @patcohen.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
When it comes to the economy, are the Europeans sometimes their own worst enemy? The newly signed trade pact between the EU and South American is derailed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...
nytimes.com
As Europe Tries to Diversify Trade, a Major Deal With South America Stumbles
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 21/01/2026
We really should be able to do this. It’s a solveable problem!
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Jonathan Birch @birchlse.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Martin Peterson's creative response to being banned from teaching Plato (shared with his permission).
An email from Martin Peterson to university administrators.
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Spreadsheet enjoyer 🇨🇦🇪🇺 @bluser12.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
This person went on a buying spree over the past 24 hours. Fresh wallet. Only existed since Dec 27th and has only bet on Venezuela-related markets. polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E6...
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Maximilian Kasy @maxkasy.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
What is the intersection of machine learning, causal inference, and economics? What are promising avenues for research at this intersection? I just drafted a new talk exploring these questions: maxkasy.github.io/home/files/s... Thoughts and comments welcome!
maxkasy.github.io
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
DOGE was A LOT less likely to cancel contracts from companies that donated money to Republicans than companies that donated to Democrats.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Ed Glaeser and Samantha Silverberg explain how screwed up the federal government's approach to subsidizing muni transit system's procurement of buses is -- and what to do about it. Short video. youtu.be/XLTGu8HFvuQ?... via @brookings.edu
youtu.be
Paying Less for Public Transit Buses
YouTube video by Brookings Institution
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
These Indiana Republicans are civic heroes. Shocking and inspiring to see after the collapse of resistance to illiberalism among so many of their counterparts over the last decade.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/12/2025
Super cool looking paper. I want to try to implement this! arxiv.org/pdf/2512.06607
arxiv.org
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
If you are at Harvard tomorrow (and why wouldn't you be?) I will be spitting truth about state capacity (also post your favorite Cambridge activities in replies) www.hks.harvard.edu/events/rebui...
oin us for the fourth event in our series "Economics in Beyond" where we invite experts in a range of disciplines to engage with our biggest economic challenges — from education to the structure of markets. This year, our conversation will focus on the state capacity that's needed for an economy that works for all, featuring Don Moynihan (Professor at the University of Michigan Ford School) and Jennifer Pahlka (Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center, and author of Recoding America), in conversation with Elizabeth Linos (Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management at HKS and the Faculty Director of The People Lab).
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Increasing political pressure on the Fed by half as much as Nixon did, for six months, raises the price level by 7% over the next decade. econweb.umd.edu/~drechsel/pa...
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Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Check out our new data visualization platform to explore local economic conditions and policies targeting place in the US: "The Economy in Place." economyinplace.com
economyinplace.com
The Economy in Place
Interactive, data story
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168
cyrussamii.com
Survey experiments and the credibility revolution – Cyrus Samii
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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.
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Aditya Dasgupta @adasgupta.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Important public good (replications are much needed to help keep the whole enterprise honest but under-supplied)
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Neil Lewis, Jr. @neillewisjr.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
"The high-income admissions advantage at Ivy-Plus colleges is driven by three factors: (1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, and (3) athletic recruitment...The three factors...are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes..."
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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Also, friends, reviewers, editors -- please be willing to publish experimental estimates of the effects of anti-corruption messages on vote choice even if the "theory isn't novel" or "so and so already published on the effects of anti-corruption." This is an impt. estimand; we need many estimates!
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ICIJ @icij.org · 19/11/2025
Experts say exchanges could more closely scrutinize funds that made hops between multiple unknown addresses or move through swappers. ICIJ’s latest investigation The #CoinLaundry includes stories from scam victims around the world. Learn more: www.icij.org/investigatio...
icij.org
Crypto giants moved billions linked to money launderers, drug traffickers and North Korean hackers
An ICIJ investigation traced tens of thousands of transactions and found crypto platforms awash with dirty money.
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ICIJ @icij.org · 19/11/2025
ICIJ and its #CoinLaundry media partners interviewed 45 victims of crypto scams on four continents. In most cases, the funds from the alleged scammers’ wallet addresses were channeled to accounts at major exchanges, including Binance, OKX, HTX and Bybit. www.icij.org/investigatio...
Crypto scam victim Carrissa Weber sits with a dog on her lap at her home in Canada. Quote on the image reads "My case is sitting in a filing cabinet and no one's doing anything with it."
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Jared Rubin @jaredcrubin.com · 19/11/2025
Now forthcoming at Quarterly Journal of Economics Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Progress in the Run-up to the Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis Available at: digitalcommons.chapman.edu/esi_working_... (See thread below for an overview)
digitalcommons.chapman.edu
Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Progress in the Run-up to the Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis
We trace the evolution of the language of science, religion, and political economy in the centuries leading to the British Industrial Revolution. Using textual analysis of 264,443 works printed in Eng...
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
This is terrifying. "[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them." ... "We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" -@seanjwestwood.bsky.social
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Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 08/11/2025
Just got the best out-of-office message I've ever seen from a fellow academic: "I am currently away on leave. If this is an emergency... well, I doubt it. What could possibly be an emergency in my line of work?"
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Perry Areolar @perryodontal.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
the password to the louvre surveillance server was "louvre" www.thesocialpost.it/2025/11/02/f...
according to the liberation newspaper, documents dating back to a 2014 inspection by the French National Agency for the Security of Computer Systems reported a staggering detail: "the password of the louvre's video surveillance server was simply " louvre. "
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
A Month Without Data Muddles the Economic Picture
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
📢 Our new VoxDevLit on Political Polarisation is out now! Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation. Read & download here: voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-pola…
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Sora is much closer to pulling off the prompt "someone playing a winning card in magic the gathering, close up on the board state as the card is played" Interestingly, it makes up a card name and shows that fake card (in appropriate colors). Lots of little weirdness, but closer.
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