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Rafael Loss

@rafaelloss.bsky.social
2.1K followers 476 following 297 posts

defence, nukes and nato | prev ecfr, cgsr llnl | he/him latest 👉 ecfr.eu/publication/the-bear-with-t…

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Reposted by Rafael Loss
Sophie Witte @sophiewitte.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Hochgerechnetes Potenzial für Bundeswehr & Reserve: 20–40-Jährige → ca. 5 Mio. Männer, knapp 2 Mio. Frauen (50% d. Männer, 16% d. Frauen zum bewaffneten Kampf bereit, falls DEU angegriffen wird) Soldatenberuf vorstellbar (Alter 16-29) → hochgerechnet >1 Mio. Männer (20% d. Männer, 5% d. Frauen)
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War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Army built its first permanent multi-domain operations command to prepare to fight across land, air, sea, cyber, and space on NATO's eastern flank. Its commander shares their progress. warontherocks.com/2026/09/cogs...
warontherocks.com
An Army General Talks Fusing Sensors and Shooters on the Eastern Flank
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Brig. Gen. Steven P. Carpenter, the commanding general of Multi-Domain Command - Europe, the U.S. Army's
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Reposted by Rafael Loss
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Seit Wochen kritisiert Moritz Schularick auf allen Kanälen die Beschaffungspolitik der Bundesregierung. Für @table.media durfte ich jetzt aufschreiben, wo seine Kritik zu kurz greift, warum wir nicht zu stark auf Drohnen setzen sollten und wieso Roboter keine Lösung für den Personalengpass sind.
table.media
Aufrüstung: Industrie und Experten widersprechen Schularicks Kritik an bisheriger Beschaffung
Angesichts großer Investitionen in die Rüstungsbranche streiten Fachleute über die Prioritäten. In einem offenen Brief, der Table.Briefings exklusiv vorliegt, wirft BDSV-Präsident Atzpodien dem Kiel Institut-Präsidenten Schularick vor, sich aus einer „Generalsperspektive“ zu äußern.
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Darüber freue ich mich sehr: Fünf Landeszentralen für politische Bildung haben mein Buch in ihr Programm aufgenommen.
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Reposted by Rafael Loss
Gabriele Valodskaite @gvalodskaite.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Over the last couple of months, @engjellushem.bsky.social and I have spent a good deal of time thinking about the future of EU enlargement.
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Maria E. Rotter @rotter.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
#csd Auskunft für Angehörige: 030 8485 4460 Hinweisportal für Fotos & Videos von Zeugen: be.hinweisportal.de Berliner Krisendienst: berliner-krisendienst.de L-Support für Opfer lesbischer und queerfeindlicher Gewalt: 030 459 618 65 MANEO (schwules Anti-Gewalt-Projekt): 030 216 3336
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Transatlantic Policy Center @aueuropecenter.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
"They must shore up their nuclear and conventional strike capabilities, improve their missile defences, and prioritise stronger intelligence-sharing among NATO allies" ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence – European Council on Foreign Relations
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilit
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Reposted by Rafael Loss
ECFR European Security @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
From today on, NATO members meet in Ankara to discuss pressing defence and security questions. The agenda includes how the member states' 5% commitment has developed, the defence industry and support for Ukraine. Here’s the background reading you need ⬇️
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
It was me an honour, @ecfrberlin.bsky.social!
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence ecfr.eu/publication/... Our latest policy brief now with a brand new header designed by @ecfr.eu's @chriseichberger.bsky.social! Check out our other “The bear at the door” reports here: ecfr.eu/topic/the-be...
Black and white pencil-like sketch of a bear climbing onto or riding an old-timey nuclear bomb in front of a red background with white clouds.
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
With just over two weeks to go until the NATO summit kicks off in Ankara, @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social compiled a strategic triad of reports on European defence: Making defence European again ecfr.eu/publication/... by @mprochwicz.bsky.social, @jpuglierin.bsky.social and I 1/3
ecfr.eu
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Leaving Vienna after a typically thought-provoking @ecfr.eu Annual Council Meeting. Main takeaway: in 2024 Europeans were denying the death of the transatlantic alliance; in 2025 they were between anger and bargaining; in 2026 they are at depression and approaching acceptance. Onwards.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 18/06/2026
Deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office @mprochwicz.bsky.social presented the results from a war game scenario in which the US confronts Denmark over Greenland while Russia escalates against Europe. Key takeaways are:
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
For the first time in almost two decades, NATO defence ministers, meeting in the Nuclear Planning Group format, issue a statement committing to “continue enhancing NATO's nuclear deterrence mission”: www.nato.int/en/about-us/... What this could look like? Find out here 👉 ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence – European Council on Foreign Relations
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilit
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Reposted by Rafael Loss
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 18/06/2026
In her keynote speech starting off day 2 of the #ACM2026 @jkobzova.bsky.social stressed that Europe should stop viewing support for Ukraine as solidarity alone and start treating it as a strategic investment in its own long-term security.
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence In this report for @ecfr.eu, the brilliant Katrine Westgaard and I take on the Russian nuclear threat to Europe and make the case for a European integrated strategic deterrence posture. ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
The bear with the bomb: Russian nuclear coercion and the future of European deterrence – European Council on Foreign Relations
Russia is expanding its nuclear-capable, long-range weapon systems to press Europe and fracture NATO. Europeans need to plug the gaps in their nuclear capabilit
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Reposted by Rafael Loss
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 17/06/2026
The Annual Council Meeting (ACM) meets over the next two days to discuss Europe’s geopolitical playbook in a world of “unorder.” As we kick off this afternoon, you can follow #ACM2026 for live insights and key takeaways!
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ECFR European Security @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence. @jpuglierin.bsky.social, @rafaelloss.bsky.social & @mprochwicz.bsky.social explore how ⬇️ ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
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Reposted by Rafael Loss
Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Being left home alone might be scary-but it can also give us a space to grow more independent & self-confident about our abilities. Enjoyed working w/ @pawelzerka.bsky.social on this @ecfr.eu report & discovering how Europeans are often ahead of their own leaders. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Foto von der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz 2018: Russlands Außenminister Sergej Lawrow und Sigmar Gabriel sind bester Stimmung. Beide lächeln freudig, Sigmar hält Sergejs Arm in Zuneigung.
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Andrius Kubilius @andriuskubilius.ec.europa.eu · 06/06/2026
Good input to the “intellectual Big-Bang”on European defence by @ecfr.eu. Wide scope of issues, deep analysis/ideas: from European defence industry development to European Strategic Enablers, from European nuclear deterrence to the role of E5+ in pan-European defence developments. 1/
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 05/06/2026
Instead of keeping NATO fully reliant on the US and risk finding it dead in their hour of need, Europe needs to create a security architecture underpinned by Europeans themselves – according to a new report from @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/making-defence-…
ecfr.eu
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
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Reposted by Rafael Loss
James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The US is just reassigning assets that NATO Europe can totally backfill, like *checks notes*... an aircraft carrier strike group and nuclear-powered attack submarines. www.ft.com/content/a217...
German newspaper Die Welt late on Wednesday published a leaked list of the assets Washington wants to withdraw, including one of the two US aircraft carrier strike groups at present assigned to Nato and all submarines capable of launching cruise missiles such as Tomahawks.
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Please find our paper here. I was very blessed to work on this with my great colleagues @rafaelloss.bsky.social and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska. ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Our paper sketches out a plan for Europe to confront the possibility of US abandonment head-on. The goal is not to replicate America’s role in Europe, but to develop a distinctly European model of defence that builds on NATO’s structures but can function with little to no US participation. 2/3
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Europeans face a kind of “Schrödinger’s NATO”: the US appears both committed to, and absent from, the alliance at the same time. Instead of keeping NATO fully reliant on America, Europeans need to create a security architecture underpinned by Europeans themselves. 1/3
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Between an expansionist Russia and a careless America, one thing is clear: Europeans must be prepared to defend themselves, and quickly. In our new publication for @ecfr.eu, @mprochwicz.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social and I outline a European way of defence. 👉 ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
2023 is calling 🤳 ecfr.eu/article/stri...
Screenshot of a paragraph from the text in the link. It reads: “Today, the risk is undeniably greater. The US provides the bulk of NATO’s long-range strike assets, including stand-off munitions and launch platforms such as surface ships, submarines, and long-range bombers. These are precisely the kinds of capabilities that Washington would need to allocate to the Indo-Pacific in a conflict with China because of the region’s vast oceanic distances. Without Washington’s kit, Europeans would likely be outnumbered, and definitely out-ranged by Moscow’s missile force, calling into question their ability to deter a simultaneous Russian aggression against NATO – be it opportunistic or in coordination with Beijing. The uncertain future of US leadership in NATO if a Republican president comes to power in 2024 further deepens the predicament.”
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
We must maneuver forward, and backward. Upward, and downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards their center of gravity.
media.tenor.com
a cartoon of a man in a suit and tie standing at a podium
Alt: Bill Clinton appears on The Simspons. He delivers a campaign speech and ends on “We must go forward, not backward. Upward, not downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom” while circling on stage.
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Okay Mistral AI, change mentions of “Germany” to “Poland” and repost to the @ecfr.eu website.
media.tenor.com
a screen that says " i 'm not sure i understand " on it
Alt: GIF of the Siri AI application responding to a query with “I’m not sure I understand”.
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Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen und Rants" Masala @carlomasala1.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Wenn ich Ukrainer wäre, wäre ich vorsichtig. Die Waffen reichen ja bis nach Moskau und man weiß nicht, wie Russland dann reagiert. Aus ukrainischer Sicht wäre das Eskalationsrisiko zu groß.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 08/05/2026
The Pentagon announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany as punishment for Merz’s criticism of how Trump handles Iran. Europe should accelerate sovereign long-range strike capabilities and forge new defence partnerships, writes @rafaelloss.bsky.social. bit.ly/4n4NMoS
bit.ly
Striking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation – European Council on Foreign Relations
Trump’s troop cut in Germany punishes Merz and halts America’s missile plans. Now Europe needs to accelerate its sovereign long-range strike capabilities and fo
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TWZ @twz.com · 05/05/2026
The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Russia’s long-range firepower, at least in the near term. Story: www.twz.com/land/confusion-surround…
twz.com
Confusion Surrounds Future Of U.S. Long-Range Missiles In Germany Amid Rift With White House
The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Russia’s long-range firepower, at least in the near term. The latest U.S.-Germany rift could leave NATO in Europe outmatched by Ru...
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Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
German officials said they are looking for ways to address the strategic and economic ramifications of a planned U.S. troop reduction. “The federal government must take this very seriously and once again press the USA for the troops to remain,” Bavarian governor Markus Söder said.
stripes.com
German officials weigh fallout from planned US troop cuts
The broader region is rural and sparsely populated and has long relied on the U.S. military as a security presence and economic engine.
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.loyal Magazin @loyalmagazin.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Die #Europäer müssen ihre #Sicherheit eigenständiger organisieren. Dazu gibt es viele Impulse. Doch die Führungsrolle der Vereinigten Staaten lässt sich nur schwer ersetzen. Zwei große Trends zeichnen sich ab. Lest hier, welche 👉 www.reservistenverband.de/magazin-loya...
Europäische Soldaten beim Großmanöver Steadfast Dart 2026.
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Striking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation ecfr.eu/article/stri... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
ecfr.eu
Striking reversal: How Europeans should react to Trump’s missile cancellation – European Council on Foreign Relations
Trump’s troop cut in Germany punishes Merz and halts America’s missile plans. Now Europe needs to accelerate its sovereign long-range strike capabilities and fo
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Wenn der Kalte Krieg eines lehrt, dann dass Moskau nur ernsthaft verhandelt, wenn Gegenstationierungen ausbleiben!
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Slightly diminish a film Warmth
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
“A ​brigade combat team now in Germany will be pulled out of the country ​and a long-range fires battalion that the Biden administration had planned to begin deploying to Germany ‌later ⁠this year will no longer deploy, the official said.”
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 23/04/2026
What are the low-hanging fruits for strengthening Europe’s defence? In a new piece for the European Policy Centre, @rafaelloss.bsky.social highlights practical steps towards a Military Schengen — tackling bureaucratic barriers, coordination gaps, and infrastructure limits. 🔗 bit.ly/3QoYScd
bit.ly
The low-hanging fruits towards a Military Schengen
The communication sets out an ambitious roadmap and addresses many long-standing concerns, including the need for less paperwork, emergency mechanisms and resilient infrastructure.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 20/04/2026
We’re hiring! 📢 The European Council on Foreign Relations is looking for a Working Student (m/f/d) to join our Geoeconomics & Tech initiative in Berlin. 🗓 Duration: 6 months (mid-May to mid-November) 💼 Part-time 📍 Berlin-based 📌 Apply by 26 April 2026! bit.ly/440pyUN
bit.ly
Help shape European foreign policy | Career opportunities at ECFR - European Council on Foreign Relations
Join the ECFR team and be part of the future of European foreign policy.
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
The German Ministry of Defence released a number of planning and guidance documents today, including Germany's first-ever Military Strategy. An unclassified summary can be found here (in German): www.bmvg.de/resource/blo...
Cover page of the "Concept for Military Defence" document, featuring radar dishes, an F-35 fighter jet, a submarine, and a Leopard 2 main battle tank.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Just in time for your weekend, I have a fresh piece out with @warontherocks.bsky.social on the new 🇫🇷 French nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence” and why dispersed air operations are a better comparison to it than 🇺🇸 U.S. forward nuclear deployments and nuclear sharing arrangements in 🇪🇺 Europe.
warontherocks.com
Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence
In his long-awaited nuclear deterrence speech, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his new doctrine of “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée) and
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Punishing Europeans by moving US forces closer to the border with Russia? Oh no! Trump Team Explores Punishment for NATO Countries That Didn’t Support Iran War www.wsj.com/world/europe...
Screenshot of two paragraphs from the Wall Street Journal article linked to in the post. They read: “Beyond repositioning troops, the plan could also involve closing a U.S. base in at least one of the European countries, possibly Spain or Germany, according to the two administration officials.

Countries that could benefit because they are viewed as supportive include Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Greece, the officials said.”
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
The US is delaying Japan’s Tomahawk missile purchase as the Iran war burns through stockpiles. I’ve warned that the high use and slow replenishment of TLAMs would create a gap. The readiness bill is now due and allies are bearing the cost. My comments: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Japan’s Order For Tomahawk Missiles Delayed by US Use in Iran
Japan’s order for hundreds of Tomahawk missiles from the US is under threat as the American-Israeli war with Iran burns through inventories, the latest example of how the conflict is drawing in suppli...
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Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing the state of European long-range strike procurement, and diagnosing what I call a European Sonderweg: a divergence from the rest of the world in this capability area. Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/a-european... Summary below. 1/4
missilematters.substack.com
A European Sonderweg in Long-Range Strike
How European states are diverging from global procurement trends in long-range drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A first sign of "critical but more limited"? "Formerly known as DEFENDER, Sword 26 reflects a strategic evolution in focus, shifting from deploying forces from the United States to Europe to leveraging in-theater forces." www.europeafrica.army.mil/SWORD/
Info graphic with a map of Europe outlining the scope of the US Army Europe and Africa's exercise Sword 26. The exercise involves US and NATO forces operating from distributed locations across the High North, Baltic region, and Poland.
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
“The Euro-Atlantic area is not at peace,” but sure, let’s deploy most of Europe’s operational maritime assets to Trump’s sinkhole of un-strategy.
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