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Jana Kobzova

@jkobzova.bsky.social
843 followers 243 following 78 posts

Co-director, European Security Programme @ European Council on Foreign Relations @ecfr.eu, previously foreign policy advisor to Slovakia's President Caputova.

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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 16h
Our - with @kadriliik.bsky.social report on #Russia and its society is out. #Europe is seen more negatively than the #US, but there's a concern about #China. Few expect Putin's war against #Ukraine to end - but they also seem to have forgotten why Russia started it in the first place. /1
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Summer reading on how to get the enlargement right by my great @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social colleagues @engjellushem.bsky.social and @gvalodskaite.bsky.social
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 20/07/2026
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny, writes @jkobzova.bsky.social. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/the-...
ecfr.eu
The fallout of the fallout: Zelensky’s reshuffle and protests in Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations
Zelensky’s outgoing defence minister did not hold back in his criticism of military commanders—and his allegations deserve proper scrutiny
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ECFR European Security @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
(4) In the audiocast “Making defence European again”, @celiabelin.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social, @mprochwicz.bsky.social and @pawelzerka.bsky.social discuss Europe’s support for Ukraine as the war continues ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
ecfr.eu
Is Europe’s support for Ukraine changing as the war goes on? – European Council on Foreign Relations
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, European governments are facing difficult questions about military support, diplomacy and the long-term security of t
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 29/06/2026
While most Europeans blame the US for the current fuel and energy turmoil unleashed by the war, many—especially in Germany and Estonia—also blame their national governments. More #defence, energy and economic #polling data 👇 @pawelzerka.bsky.social @jkobzova.bsky.social bit.ly/3PUhhOk
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Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves – European Council on Foreign Relations
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space availabl
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 23/06/2026
A major new ECFR #poll suggests voters are ready for bolder action on #defence and energy resilience. But that support comes with conditions on governments' ability to protect them from economic hardship by @pawelzerka.bsky.social and @jkobzova.bsky.social 👇 bit.ly/3PUhhOk
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Home alone: Europeans are ready to defend themselves – European Council on Foreign Relations
A major ECFR poll finds the European public, in a time of rupture, thinking differently and questioning old assumptions. It reveals new political space availabl
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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
With just over two weeks to go until the NATO summit kicks off in Ankara, @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social compiled a strategic triad of reports on European defence: Making defence European again ecfr.eu/publication/... by @mprochwicz.bsky.social, @jpuglierin.bsky.social and I 1/3
ecfr.eu
Making defence European again – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of de
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
@ecfr.eu annual meeting was great. I won’t summarize any of it - because @jeremycliffe.bsky.social has all the thoughts on the mtg and on our work here:
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Meanwhile @pawelzerka.bsky.social and @jkobzova.bsky.social showed just how hard Europeans have turned against the US, via a major pan-European poll conducted last month: ecfr.eu/publication/...
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Being left home alone might be scary-but it can also give us a space to grow more independent & self-confident about our abilities. Enjoyed working w/ @pawelzerka.bsky.social on this @ecfr.eu report & discovering how Europeans are often ahead of their own leaders. @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
From “good” to “not good” — and how to get there faster. The weaker Moscow’s hand is on #Ukraine, European security, energy or defence, the higher the chances for Europe to escape yet another Faustian bargain with #Russia.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 14/04/2026
Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. @jkobzova.bsky.social explains how Europeans can make the long term arrive more quickly: bit.ly/4tK0sDN
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From good to not good: The impact of the war in Iran on Russia – European Council on Foreign Relations
Russia is reaping the rewards from Trump’s war in Iran, but the benefits will likely not extend beyond the short term. Here’s how Europeans can make the long te
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
An update on #Ukraine — and how Trump’s war on #Iran clearly doesn’t help.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 15/03/2026
Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time is to fight back, write Will Brown, @jkobzova.bsky.social, @nicupopescu.bsky.social and José Ignacio Torreblanca. bit.ly/4bebWIe
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From shield to sword: Europe's offensive strategy for the hybrid age – European Council on Foreign Relations
Europe's defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the tim
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ECFR MENA @ecfrmena.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Analysis by @jbdacey.bsky.social, Ellie Geranmayeh, @hlovatt.bsky.social, @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Majda Ruge, @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social & @ajwsmall.bsky.social 👇️ ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...
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A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Not to comment on the substance of the plan but "reverse enlargement" sounds a bit weird. I mean, technically, the reversal of enlargement is...shrinking...or...reducing? Ahem www.politico.eu/article/5-st...
politico.eu
5 steps to get Ukraine into the EU in 2027
Plans to bring Kyiv into the tent before it has completed all reforms and to remove Hungary’s veto signal a sense of urgency in Brussels.
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Please have a look - sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Alert: champagne popping in the Kremlin
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
This is not so say that Kyiv is winning — it’s to say that much more can be done for Russia to feel the pain and costs of Putin’s longest war. 4 years since his 3 day “operation” began, Putin is still far from reaching his goals.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 09/01/2026
🎧 New Week, New episode! @markhleonard.bsky.social is joined by @jkobzova.bsky.social, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026. What dynamic political shifts might we see this year? bit.ly/4jALdcw
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The world in 2026 – European Council on Foreign Relations
Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, Jana Kobzová, Andrew Small and Alex Vines to discuss upcoming political changes in 2026
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
One would think that by now, my points are kind of obvious and yet here we are: 10 points the Europeans need to take into account when asking for a seat at the table on #Ukraine: ecfr.eu/article/no-c...
ecfr.eu
No cash, no bullets, no say: A 10-point memo for Europe on Ukraine
Without sufficient money and weapons, Europeans will be unable to convert their talking points into a sustainable peace.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 23/11/2025
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare (by @jkobzova.bsky.social) ecfr.eu/article/what...
ecfr.eu
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare.
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ECFR European Security @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. @jkobzova.bsky.social outlines how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare ⬇️ ecfr.eu/article/what...
ecfr.eu
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare.
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Jim O’Brien does most of the eloquent speaking-I just added why the plan won’t work in the current form & why it’s dangerous for #Europe’s own security. Btw:for Moscow, the phrase “all ambiguities of the last 30 yrs” in point #2 is the new version of “root causes”, i.e.same demands as in Dec 2021.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 25/10/2025
In this week's podcast, @jyshapiro.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien analyze the implications of these developments, including the potential impact on global energy strategies and the conflict’s trajectory. ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/ukraine-ru…
ecfr.eu
Ukraine, Russia and Trump’s sanctions gamble
Jeremy Shapiro welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jim O’Brien to discuss the latest twists in diplomacy between Ukraine, Russia and the West…
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Note to those who are already celebrating yet another Trump’s u-turn: on #Ukraine the key message here is that the #U.S. will do this only if and when the Europeans impose the tariffs first.
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Mikhail Komin @kominmo.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
Continued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026 ecfr.eu/article/fro...
ecfr.eu
From battlefield to ballot box: Why Russia is drafting war veterans into politics
The rising prominence of veterans of the war in Ukraine will widen Russia’s elite coalition pushing for continued confrontation with the West…
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Still one of the best analyses of what #Russia’s recent local elections mean for the west, by @kominmo.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
As the polling stations in #Moldova close, here's a reminder from my @ecfr.eu colleagues @gvalodskaite.bsky.social and Leo Litra on what's at stake at this election: ecfr.eu/article/love...
ecfr.eu
Love thy neighbour: Moldova’s election is a stress test for European resilience
Moldova’s parliamentary election will steer the country towards either the EU or Russia. Whatever the outcome, it is a chance for Europeans to understand Putin’s disinformation playbook and protect…
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 23/09/2025
#UNGA80 🧵 1/ Today, the UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Ukraine. In our latest podcast episode, Mark Leonard and @jkobzova.bsky.social focused on the key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine during the summer. ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
ecfr.eu
The dog days of summer: Ukraine battles and diplomacy
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to break down the summer’s key developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine…
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
In the war in #Ukraine, “dog days” doesn’t equal “inactivity”. As #UNGA starts in full swing, here’s a recap of what’s been happening in & around Ukraine over the summer and what that means for Europe and the U.S. (spoiler alert: increasing transatlantic rift).
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
Still in shock. I remember Andriy back from the EuroMaidan days, as the “kommandant” of Maidan. RIP
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
also, I think that this week, it's quite appropriate to repost this post-mortem on #Minsk agreements written by my brilliant ex-colleague from @ecfr.eu @dumoulinme.bsky.social who has direct experience from those talks. ecfr.eu/article/ukra...
ecfr.eu
Ukraine, Russia, and the Minsk agreements: A post-mortem
Western policymakers should study the lessons of the Minsk agreements – and drop any illusions about the ways in which Russia supposedly acts.
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Per @financialtimes.com, a European diplomat described #Russia’s insistence on involving #China “a WTF moment”. Frankly, I had such moment when I heard that Witkoff really believed that Moscow would agree to “Art 5-like security guarantees” for #Ukraine 🤷🏽‍♀️ www.ft.com/content/3851...
ft.com
Russia says it must be included in any Ukraine security guarantees
Demand from foreign minister Sergei Lavrov would give Moscow an effective veto over efforts to defend Kyiv
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
One thing we didn’t hear from the Europeans though is the threat of more pressure on Russia if there’s no ceasefire or a deal. They explicitly mentioned such option in their post-Alaska statement on Saturday — yet no one mentioned it during the press mtg w/ Trump.
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
US-Ukraine-European leaders' mtg is still ongoing, so any outcomes TBC. But Kyiv & EU already sent a clear message to both Trump & Russia: #Ukraine is not alone and Europe is serious about own responsibility for how the war ends & how security in #Europe is ensured.
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
post-Alaska follow-up on yday's thread: #Putin visibly content w/ red-carpet treatment & no immediate threat of #US sanctions. Trump delighted by the optics of a mtg of two superpowers. Contrast w/ how he treated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office could hardly be higher /1
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Putin's international isolation effectively ends today. But it's unlikely that he gets what he wants on #Ukraine in Alaska. Bilateral US-RU deals are possible (and likely) - yet Kyiv & the rest of Europe have a role to play. Without them, no deal is really possible.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 11/07/2025
🎧Another week, another NEW episode of the World in 30 Minutes. This week Mark Leonard is joined by @jkobzova.bsky.social and @camillegrand.bsky.social to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine. 📲Listen, share and subscribe! bit.ly/464YzJl
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Beyond the battlefield: Europe’s long-term strategy for Ukraine
Mark Leonard is joined by Camille Grand and Jana Kobzova to discuss ECFR’s new European Security programme and the war in Ukraine…
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 27/06/2025
@nicupopescu.bsky.social is joined in conversation by Dmytro Kuleba and @jkobzova.bsky.social to discuss the new European Security Initiative #ACM25 Here are some key moments from the talk🧵🧵🧵
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Great to be launching @ecfr.eu new European Security Programme at ECFR’s annual council meeting, this time in Warsaw, with @nicupopescu.bsky.social and @dmytrokuleba.bsky.social @camillegrand.bsky.social #ACM2025
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Data projects by Texty.org.ua @texty.org · 24/06/2025
💔 More than three years under fire: our data show where & when Kyiv suffers the most strikes during the war in Russia. We calculated how Russia terrorized the capital of Ukraine and its civilian population. Read more in our analytics below ⬇️ #Ukraine #Kyiv #Russia texty.org.ua/articles/115348/
Map of shelling of Kyiv from February 2022 to June 2025
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Tune in today to discuss Trump, Europe and our response to #Ukraine
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
Self-promotion alert: we argue with @camillegrand.bsky.social & @nicupopescu.bsky.social that w/ less US attention & resources, the Europeans are Kyiv's key partner. They need a shared plan to promote joint security, map out Kyiv’s future EU integration & stabilise the country domestically.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 06/06/2025
'With a united European front investing in its capacity to help Ukraine protect European security, Europeans could strengthen Ukraine’s hand well enough to reach some kind of pacification of the conflict', write @jkobzova.bsky.social and @nicupopescu.bsky.social in a new commentary buff.ly/20iqCfv
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The long game: How Europeans can shape the outcome of Ukraine-Russia talks
The second meeting between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has shown that a settlement is a distant prospect. To strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future talks, Europeans have a three-fold task.
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Explaining Trump’s offer for #Ukraine - this time in Slovak
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 28/04/2025
Tomorrow marks the 100th day of Trump’s second term, and Ukraine’s war rages on. Can Europe and Kyiv stop a peace deal on Russia’s terms? Mark Leonard and @jkobzova.bsky.social discuss last-minute diplomacy and what’s next. 🎧 Listen here
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Ceasefire in Ukraine?
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova to discuss whether a flurry of last-minute diplomacy can prevent a Ukraine settlement on Russia’s terms
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Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Pope Francis’ farewell gift
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Christopher Miller @christopherjm.ft.com · 19/04/2025
Ukraine said Russian attacks were continuing after Vladimir Putin ordered his army to suspend combat operations in Ukraine over the Easter holiday this weekend. “Russian assault operations continue on several frontline sectors, and Russian artillery fire has not subsided.” www.ft.com/content/77a7...
ft.com
Ukraine says Russian attacks continue after Putin declares ceasefire
Sirens sound in Kyiv as air defences open fire on incoming missiles minutes after announcement
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Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 @reshetz.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Happy Moskva sinking anniversary to those who celebrate
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