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Becca Wasser

@beccawasser.bsky.social
1.8K followers 190 following 96 posts

Defense Lead, Bloomberg Economics; Senior Fellow for Defense, CNAS. Previously RAND, NDS Commission. Not a journalist. Views are my own.

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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The Iran war is rapidly eating US readiness. The blockade is tying up the fleet, forces are stretched, maintenance deferred, and critical munitions are running low — all risking the US military being less prepared for future crises. My research in @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The US can sustain the Iran blockade, but at a high cost. Over 30% of available warships are tied up, with operating costs near $1B a month. The war is sapping military readiness. The pressure on Iran may not be worth the price. My analysis featured in @bloomberg.com (gift link): t.co/Trnj7c13RC
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The US can sustain the Iran blockade, but at a high cost. Over 30% of available warships are tied up, with operating costs near $1B a month. The war is sapping military readiness. The pressure on Iran may not be worth the price. My analysis featured in @bloomberg.com (gift link): t.co/Trnj7c13RC
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Resharing this thread, apropos of nothing (and by nothing I mean more strikes on Iran eating up precious TLAMs):
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 27/08/2026
To survive an era of increased disorder, Middle Eastern countries “will have to rethink how they relate to the wider world—and, most important, to each other,” write @beccawasser.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, and @ziaddaoud.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
The Impossible Middle East
After the Iran war, the region has no good options.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The USS George Washington has arrived in the Middle East, leaving the US without a carrier presence in Asia. Once again, a war in the Middle East war is eating Washington's attempts to pivot for lunch -- at the expense of readiness, alliances, and deterring China.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The US and Iran are in a protracted conflict: a war of attrition that erodes will and materiel to see who can last longest, marked by cyclic fighting and pauses to rebuild. Neither can force victory, but both can deny defeat. My new Weekend essay for Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran and the US Are Trapped In a War Neither Knows How to Win
A bitter rivalry lasting almost five decades has locked the two opponents into a protracted war. History tells us this doesn’t end well.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The US and Iran are in a protracted conflict: a war of attrition that erodes will and materiel to see who can last longest, marked by cyclic fighting and pauses to rebuild. Neither can force victory, but both can deny defeat. My new Weekend essay for Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran and the US Are Trapped In a War Neither Knows How to Win
A bitter rivalry lasting almost five decades has locked the two opponents into a protracted war. History tells us this doesn’t end well.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Is the US out of missiles? Not yet -- but it's running low on the right ones. Our new analysis estimates US missile stockpiles in the Iran War, leveraging US budget data and reporting. There's cause for concern, especially for air defense interceptors and long-range standoff missiles.
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
hey if you guys like podcasts, and my dumb voice, here I am talking about the current global arms race with the much-smarter @beccawasser.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2...
bloomberg.com
Trumponomics: The $2 Trillion Global Arms Race - Bloomberg
Understand every aspect of the global economy – and know how to make your next move.
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
you may appreciate this chart from the excellent @beccawasser.bsky.social (terminal subscribers only--sorry!). see if you can spot any fun patterns!
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
We analyzed a Kharg Island seizure back in March. It would be a difficult military operation that would put US forces at very high risk. Seizing Kharg would be one thing, but holding it under continued Iranian drone and missile attack puts US forces directly in the firing line. A fools errand.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Less than 12 hours after posting this research, the count of US military strikes is already obsolete.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
How many military strikes has the US launched in Trump's 2nd term? We compiled every strike acknowledged by the Pentagon. The total: 14,415 worldwide. The data shows Trump's proclivity to use military force worldwide -- even at great cost. That's unlikely to change: more strikes are coming. (1/4)
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
A high optempo and enormous munitions consumption in the Iran war is mortgaging future US military readiness. The risk is being less prepared for greater challenges, like a potential conflict with China. Featured in this must-read from @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran War Saps US Military Ahead of Any Potential China Conflict
A top Pentagon official’s remarks that the US had halted arms sales to Taiwan to ensure sufficient munitions for the Iran war are the latest sign that the conflict has sapped American military readine...
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
did you know reaper drones are "attritable" but also very expensive? well now you do! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran Has Destroyed Roughly $1 Billion Worth of US Reaper Drones
Iran has destroyed more than two dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones operated by US forces since the war began, a significant loss worth nearly $1 billion that represents 20% of the Pentagon’s prewar inventory f...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Can Europe buy its way into keeping Trump committed to NATO? Allies are hoping more arms purchases, co-production, and JVs will preserve US buy-in. But that strategy faces challenges and may not be enough as Trump prizes investment in the US. Quoted in @politico.eu: www.politico.eu/article/rutt...
politico.eu
Rutte’s new plan to keep Trump in NATO: Buy more from the US
Mark Rutte wants new focus on defense industry deals to close a yawning production gap in Europe — but also keep the U.S. president on board.
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
in december. that’s right www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
bloomberg.com
Trump’s “Golden Dome” Missile Defense Plan Would Cost a Fortune
Building President Trump’s proposed missile and air defense system, meant to strike down threats all the way into space, would be an enormous task — with a huge price.
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
oh hey, you know who else came up with a $1.2 trillion price tag? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Trump’s Golden Dome Shield to Cost $1.2 Trillion, Watchdog Says
President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile-defense shield will cost as much as $1.2 trillion to deploy and operate, six times above current forecasts, according to a new estimate — and would still l...
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
The US Navy faces millions of dollars in extra costs each time it sends a destroyer through the waterway, and such passages on their own are unlikely to reopen it. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
US Navy Faces Rising Costs for Hormuz Missions With Strait Still Blocked
As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsettled, the US Navy faces millions of dollars in extra costs each time it sends a destroyer through the waterway, and such passages on their own are unlikely...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
The Pentagon claims the Iran war costs $25B. We crunched the numbers: $8B in munitions, $5B in equipment, $1B in operating costs for 2 carriers and 16 destroyers across 39 days of conflict. Missing: cost of base damage, other munitions. Analysis in @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Pentagon’s $25 Billion Price Tag for Iran War May Miss Key Costs
Top Pentagon officials finally put a price tag on the war in Iran so far during a contentious congressional hearing on Wednesday. Analysts say the $25 billion figure they cited underestimates the tota...
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Tony Stark @tonystark.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
This week on WarTalk: I’m absent, the team talks ammo, Dark Eagle, wargames, and the wonderful @beccawasser.bsky.social joins the show! open.spotify.com/episode/1b19...
open.spotify.com
WarTalk: Still Very Much Out of Ammo!
Spotify video
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Will Trump strike Iran again? If he decides yes, then the next 2 weeks stand out as key window. • Econ: blockade impact and oil shut-ins slower than desired • Mil: brief 3 carrier posture until Ford leaves; ARG + ground forces inbound • Pol: mid-May Xi meeting blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
hey, did you know the u.s. only has a handful of gucci hypersonic long-range strike weapons? did you also know that centcom wants to use them against iran? WELL NOW YOU DO (free link) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
US Seeks to Deploy Hypersonic Missile For the First Time Against Iran
US Central Command has asked to send the Army’s long-delayed Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Middle East for possible use against Iran, seeking a longer-range system to hit ballistic-missile laun...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
This is likely an accounting of munitions, destroyed equipment and some O&M costs. What it probably doesn’t cover is the cost of base damage -- in part because the Trump admin believes the Gulf states will underwrite reconstruction costs. The true bill for the Iran war is bound to be higher.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
The US is delaying Japan’s Tomahawk missile purchase as the Iran war burns through stockpiles. I’ve warned that the high use and slow replenishment of TLAMs would create a gap. The readiness bill is now due and allies are bearing the cost. My comments: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Japan’s Order For Tomahawk Missiles Delayed by US Use in Iran
Japan’s order for hundreds of Tomahawk missiles from the US is under threat as the American-Israeli war with Iran burns through inventories, the latest example of how the conflict is drawing in suppli...
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Stacie Pettyjohn @spettyjohn.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
If the PLA invades, Taiwan could stop them at the shore w/UUVs, drone boats, swarms, missiles, & mines layered into a 4 ring gauntlet from the strait to the beach. Taiwan can create this Hellscape. We explain how. warontherocks.com/2026/03/hellscape-taiwan-a-porcupine-defense-in-the-drone-age/
warontherocks.com
Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age
It is 2029. General Secretary Xi Jinping has given the order for the People’s Liberation Army to forcibly take Taiwan. Hundreds of Chinese warships begin
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Casual reminder that the US has only procured 322 Tomahawks in the last 5 years. If the US shot 850 in Iran + a low estimate of 250 for strikes in the Middle East and Nigeria, it is clear replenishment rates do not match expenditure rates. The math doesn’t math, as they say.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Trump’s way of war promises “war without entanglement.” But it means strikes, re-strikes—and now potentially boots on the ground. The Iran war is exposing the limits, risking the very forever wars Trump ran against. My latest essay for @bloomberg.com (gift link): www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The US Wants War Without Entanglement. It May Not Exist.
Swift, punitive strikes are meant to deliver results without boots on the ground. Yet they can leave the US mired in the very conflicts they were meant to resolve.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Iran’s arsenal has taken a hit, but it likely isn’t exhausted. Launches are sustained and Saudi Arabia is increasingly in focus. The pattern suggests recalibration, not depletion: Iran can impose outsized costs by causing just enough pain. My analysis @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
The Iran war has shifted from strikes to a sustained operation with no clear end in sight. That raises big questions about munitions depth, the pace of operations, and targets. I joined @bloomberg.com Here’s Why podcast to unpack how these could shape the conflict. youtu.be/vp9EkC9xjAw
youtu.be
Bonus Episode: Here's Why the Iran War Could Hinge on Missile Math | Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe...
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The US is firing limited advanced munitions - TLAMs, PAC-3s, JASSMs - at a breakneck pace, but replenishing them will take years and billions. Iran is waging a cost-imposing battle on the US defense industrial base -- and it is working. @bloomberg.com gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The Bloomberg powers that be finally let @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social and I do what we do best: nerd out about munitions. Have a listen as we discuss drones and missiles, and the force readiness trade offs of the Iran war. www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2...
bloomberg.com
Big Take: Who Runs Out of Munitions First in Iran - Bloomberg
Understand every aspect of the global economy – and know how to make your next move.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
I talked with @cnn.com about why the most immediate concern is Gulf air defense interceptor inventory -- not US stockpiles. Even if Iranian attack intensity slows, America's Gulf partners have already fired air defense missiles at a faster rate than they can be built. www.cnn.com/2026/03/04/p...
cnn.com
How many missiles do Iran and the US have? The war’s troubling munitions math | CNN Politics
Four days into war with Iran, at least one of the United States’ Gulf allies is already running low on crucial interceptor munitions used to defend against Iranian missile and drone attacks, two sourc...
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
a free* link for you, the people *for seven days www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran's Missile Math: $20,000 Drones Take on $4 Million Patriots
Which side runs out of munitions first could determine the outcome of the war.
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Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
A short- to mid-term military risk isn't the US running out of interceptors or PGMs in this conflict per se. It is the opportunity costs.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Back to doing what I do best: pointing at things on maps. (It's a wargamer thing). I walked through Iran's retaliatory strikes, what it has left in the arsenal, and what the “big wave” of strikes Trump promised might mean with Bloomberg TV. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
bloomberg.com
Watch Iran Retaliates Following US-Israel Strikes - Bloomberg
Bloomberg Economics Defense Lead Becca Wasser discusses Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli strikes over the weekend, and what potential moves lie ahead from the Trump administration. She joins Kailey Le...
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran's Missile Math: $20,000 Drones Take on $4 Million Patriots
Which side runs out of munitions first could determine the outcome of the war.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Iran fired 1200+ projectiles at 5 countries in the first 48 hours. Most were drones. These saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors. $20-50K Shaheds vs. $4.19M air defense interceptors put US partners on the wrong side of the cost curve.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
US destroyers launched Tomahawks at Iranian targets, but here’s the problem: America doesn’t have unlimited TLAMs. The Trump admin burned through big numbers in earlier strikes on Iran, Houthis, and Nigeria without replenishing stockpiles. And TLAMs would be vital in a potential China fight.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Iran’s initial response was fast: SRBMs hit US bases in the Gulf. MRBMs are needed for continued strikes on Jordan and Israel, but Tehran may not have as many. Further retaliation and scale of damage hinge on stockpile depth: what was rebuilt after the 12-Day War and what survived the first wave.
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
As the DoD vs. Anthropic deadline looms, its unclear which DPA authorities may be used. But DPA has emerged as a favorite tool of the Trump admin -- from taking equity stakes to compelling an AI firm, with big implications for defense tech. My take @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The Cold War Era Law at the Center of Hegseth’s Anthropic Threat
The Pentagon is poised to take unprecedented steps in its standoff with Anthropic PBC that risk touching off a massive legal fight with the $380 billion company and threaten to undermine Pentagon effo...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
To Trump, limited air and missile strikes on Iran may look like a quick win. But without a clear objective, limited campaigns often turn into long, costly endeavors. Iran gets a vote too and its response may defy US expectations. My thoughts @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Trump's military surge now has the real strike capacity and key enablers needed for weeks of strikes on Iran. I told @financialtimes.com the scale of this buildup signals credible strike preparation. But sustaining it without action would be incredibly costly -- and risky. www.ft.com/content/a7da...
ft.com
The ‘incredibly significant’ US military forces surrounding Iran
US naval and aircraft build-up is reminiscent of the invasion of Iraq, experts say
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Trump’s Middle East buildup has him backed into a corner: he needs a good ROI for the significant forces and resources tied up. This makes strikes more likely — or else this may be one of the costliest bluffs in history if he doesn't go through with it. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
We did the math on the US naval buildup in the Caribbean. The total: $2.9B. At its height, costs topped $20M a day. Much was already funded, but combat operations cost extra -- and opportunity costs are difficult to quantify. My latest for @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Shifting a carrier strike group and F-35s from the Caribbean to the Middle East shows the US can surge forces, but raises the real risk of overstretch. Repeated retaskings are trading tomorrow’s readiness for today’s pressure campaigns. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Iran’s missiles are its only credible deterrent against US and Israel, putting bases, shipping lanes, and energy infrastructure in range. Tehran won’t agree to cap missile stockpiles because it needs large numbers to overwhelm defenses and hit targets. For more: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Becca Wasser @beccawasser.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Great conversation on @bloomberg.com TV last night on prospects for US-Iran talks. I’m not optimistic. Why? Because both sides haven’t agreed to what they’re negotiating. That’s a recipe for unmet expectations and failed talks that make military strikes more likely. youtu.be/R4y_GdOQG1g
youtu.be
What to Expect From US, Iran Talks Friday in Oman?
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
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