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Patrick Präg

@ppraeg.bsky.social
2.8K followers 990 following 480 posts

I'm a sociologist working at the Center for Research in Economics and Statistics (CREST) I also have a website: patrickpraeg.com

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Reposted by Patrick Präg
Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.eurosky.social · 29/09/2026
Ich suche ab dem 1.12.2026 eine SHK, die mich bei der Datenaufbereitung der EU-SILC-Daten unterstützt. gesis.jobs.personio.de/job/2817745?...
gesis.jobs.personio.de
Studentische Hilfskraft, Team German Microdata Lab (SHK_DRS_2026_027) | Jobs bei GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften
GESIS ist eine der weltweit führenden Infrastruktureinrichtungen für die Sozialwissenschaften und steht Forscher*innen mit Expertise und Infrastrukturangeboten auf allen Ebenen ihrer Forschungsprojekt...
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Patrick Präg @ppraeg.bsky.social · 8h
Parenting goals
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Luca Maria Pesando @lucampesando.bsky.social · 13h
📢 Job: I am hiring *TWO* 3-year Postdocs to join us at #NYUAD to work on household demography in Africa and school segregation in the Global South. More information below. Great research and family benefits. Deadline: Jan 15, 2027. To apply: apply.interfolio.com/193571 apply.interfolio.com/193489
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Manuel Schechtl @schechtlm.eurosky.social · 20h
Timely new paper in @socioeconreview.bsky.social: Does rising wealth concentration undermine American democracy? Using variation across the 50 U.S. states, results reveal a clear, negative effect of millionaire wealth concentration on democratic performance. doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwag058
Wealth concentration in the United States has reached heights not seen since the Gilded Age, renewing fears that concentrated economic power may undermine democracy. Yet empirical research linking inequality to democratic erosion remains inconclusive, partly because most studies focus on cross-country comparison and examine income rather than wealth. This study exploits variation across fifty U.S. states; each
embedded in a common federal framework but differing in political and economic dynamics. To estimate the exogenous effect of rising wealth concentration on democratic backsliding, I develop a shift-share instrument of state-level millionaire wealth shares. Results reveal a clear, negative effect on democratic performance. Causal mediation analysis demonstrates that the effect is mediated by the share of seats held by
Republicans in state legislatures, pointing to a mechanism of elite influence through partisan channels. These findings demonstrate that subnational wealth disparities, and their convergence with partisan politics, actively erode American democratic institutions.
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Burak Sonmez @buraksonmez.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Come and join us @sriucl.bsky.social We’re looking for an Assistant Professor in Quantitative Social Science with a research agenda on the environment and/or climate change, and expertise in causal inference. See full details and apply 👉🏼 www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
UCL Social Research Institute recruitment poster for an Assistant Professor in Quantitative Social Science at the Centre for Quantitative Social Science. Applications close 30 October 2026.
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Aaron Gullickson @aarongullickson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🚨 New article alert! My article about trends in interracial marriage in the United States is now published in Socius. (1/6) tinyurl.com/ycxrdnas
tinyurl.com
Trends and Heterogeneity in Interracial Marriage in the United States, 1960 to 2023 - Aaron Gullickson, 2026
Although scholars recognize that interracial marriage in the United States has grown exponentially since the 1960s, our understanding of this trend for specific...
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Per Block @perblock.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
We made a really neat network plot about the structure of marriages between occupations. And there is a whole article with it that's really neat too! And it's out now too! doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2026.101203
A network plot showing connections between occupations that depict marriage
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 24/09/2026
We started a data science consultancy company to run alongside our academic work. We have a limited amount of time that we can devote to this, but please do get in contact if you think there's anything we can help with! patterns-and-proofs.com
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
1/ New in @pnasnexus.org: Demography strikes again! The mortality penalty associated w/ smoking has seemingly grown over time. Speculation centered on biological reasons, like more intensive smoking, or more negative selection of smokers on other characteristics. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
academic.oup.com
Why the mortality penalty of smoking is rising over time
Abstract. The adverse association between smoking and mortality is well known, yet estimated risks for smokers have risen markedly in recent decades. Expla
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CREST Sociology @crestsociology.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Exciting news: CREST Sociology is delighted to welcome two new colleagues: Juliette Saetre and Marshall Taylor! Check out their websites to learn more about their work: www.juliettesaetre.com and marshallataylor.com Welcome, Juliette and Marshall! 🎉
Portrait of Juliette SaetrePortrait of Marshall Taylor
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Katy Morris @katymorris.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Come join our gang! Especially if you're polisci or law: disciplines that submit a lot but are not represented on the active moderation team
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Jo @jobold.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
ROBOT KOCH INSTITUT
In Leipzig eröffnete das erste deutsche Robotik-Restaurant

Am Leipziger Hauptbahnhof eröffnete mit dem „Robyn´s“ das angeblich erste Restaurant in Deutschland, in dem Roboter frische Speisen und Getränke weitgehend autonom zubereiten. Hinter dem neuen gastronomischen Konzept steht ein Netzwerk, zu dem unter anderem der Lebensmittelgroßhändler Transgourmet zählt.

Donnerstag, 17. September 2026, 12:10 Uhr
Thomas Klaus
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Julia Lynch @jlynch13.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Baby’s first first-author pub. Couldn’t be a prouder mama! jech.bmj.com/content/earl...
jech.bmj.com
Fuzzy-set qualitative analysis in public health: an illustrative application to social determinants of health in Dundee, Aberdeen and Glasgow
Public health outcomes are affected by multiple, intersecting social determinants, yet dominant regression-based approaches often struggle to analyse such causal complexity. This paper illustrates the...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
When you ask any French academic about their affiliation
A long list of partly overlapping institutions, most of them 3-, 4-, or 5-letter combinations
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Hampton Gaddy @hggaddy.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
🚨I'm guest editing a special issue of PopStudies with Victoria Knutson, Maarten van Wijhe, José Manuel Aburto, @alysonvanraalte.bsky.social! ‘How do we estimate excess mortality? Current problems and methodological solutions’ Pre-submission enquiries by 1 Dec 2026 CfP: www.lse.ac.uk/internationa...
Call for papers for a special issue of Population Studies – a journal of demography

‘How do we estimate excess mortality? Current problems and methodological solutions’

Guest editors:
Hampton Gaddy (University of Oxford, UK)
Victoria Knutson (University of Washington, USA)
Maarten van Wijhe (Roskilde University, Denmark)
José Manuel Aburto (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK)
Alyson van Raalte (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany)

Motivation:

In the last 20 years, excess mortality estimation has become a widespread technique for quantifying the demographic and social impacts of contemporary and historical mortality crises. However, there is surprisingly little systematic methodological work on the topic, and the work that has been published has shown that excess mortality estimates can be highly sensitive to the theoretical and practical foundation of the underlying models, as well as issues of data availability (e.g. Andreasen & Simonsen, 2011; Chandra & Christensen, 2019; Nepomuceno et al., 2022; Duerst & Schöley, 2024; Wakefield & Knutson, 2025). The effect of these issues is that, for example, in the context of its official assessment of the Covid-19 pandemic in Norway, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health declared that there is simply
‘no gold standard for calculating excess mortality’ (Knudsen et al., 2023).

In May 2026, the London School of Economics hosted a two-day workshop, aimed at demonstrating the need for consensus about the use of excess mortality methods and at scoping out the key areas of methodological disagreement (full programme here). One presentation outlined the preliminary results from the ‘One Epidemic, Many Estimates (1EME)’ challenge, in which 22 teams of researchers

[text truncated; continue reading at https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/research/population-investigation-committee/Pop-Studies-CfP-How-do-we-estimate-excess-mortality-Current-problems-and-methodological-solutions.pdf]estimation, as well as thoughtful methodological papers that suggest solutions to the outstanding problems and disagreements relating to how to estimate excess mortality.

The descriptive reading of the title will be fulfilled by a series of commissioned articles that speak to the current practice and long history of excess mortality estimation. The guest editors plan for this to include the 1EME paper; an essay by historians of medicine; an essay on the ethics of how (excess) mortality estimation is commonly practised; and a commentary on how excess mortality estimation has been transformed in recent years.

To fulfil the perspective reading of the title, the guest editors are making an open call for contributions relating to the methodology of excess mortality estimation. The objective of the special issue is not to establish a single preferred method for estimating excess mortality—in particular, because different excess mortality analyses have different
explicit or implicit different estimands in mind—but rather to clarify the methodological choices that drive variation in estimates, identify areas of agreement and disagreement, and provide researchers with a clearer framework for selecting and evaluating methods,
conditional on their estimand of interest (see Lundberg et al., 2021). To that end, submissions to the open call should identify a specific methodological question or problem to be addressed; offer an answer or solution to that methodological issue; and outline the conditions under which that approach is valid.

Pre-submission enquiries for submitting to the issue are mandatory and due by 1 December 2026. Enquiries should take the form of a proposed title and abstract, and should be submitted to hampton.gaddy@magd.ox.ac.uk.

[text truncated; continue reading at https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/research/population-investigation-committee/Pop-Studies-CfP-How-do-we-estimate-excess-mortality-Current-problems-and-methodological-solutions.pdf]
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Ben Jarvis @benjarvis.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
New blog post. I recapitulate the known, but still underutilized, equivalence between conditional logit, log-linear, and multinomial logit models. My plan is to hammer on this until people start defaulting to conditional logit thinking. benjaminfjarvis.com/blog/clogit-...
A plot showing coefficient estimates and standard errors from saturated log-linear, multinomial, and conditional logit models of assortative mating, estimated using simulated data. Estimated values are plotted on the x-axis, the parameter names on the y-axis. For each named parameter, there are up to five estimates for different models. The plot shows that for each named parameters, estimates and standard errors are identical across models.
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FemQuant @femquant.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
It's September and we're kicking off another term of monthly #FemQuantSeminars! Join us online on 29 Sept for a presentation by @signesvallfors.bsky.social on Exposure to Local Violent Crime and Abortion, Miscarriage, and Stillbirth in Mexico. Info & sign-up: femquant.wordpress.com/seminar-seri...
Foto of speaker and seminar details on blue background. Exposure to local violent crime and abortion, miscarriage and stillbirth in Mexico. Dr. Signe Svallfors, Stockholm University. Tuesday 29 September 2026, 8:00 ET/ 13:00 BST/ 14:00 CEST. Link to more information in post
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Leire Salazar @leire-salazar.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Exposure to air pollution in pregnancy increases the risk of unhealthy births. @nereabelloiglesias.bsky.social and I analyze the impacts of NO2 on several birth outcomes at different moments of pregnancy. Risks are higher for women with fewer socioeconomic resources. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Patrick Präg @ppraeg.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Can confirm
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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 11/09/2026
An interesting thing is happening to me at the moment. I have a standing bug bounty policy for my first authored scientific work. That means, I've committed to pay people who report bugs in my code, up to 750€ for severe errors. Since GPT-6 Astra came out, I'm now getting several bug reports daily.
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Ewa Batyra @ewabatyra.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
One more week left to apply for a 3-year postdoc in Demography (deadline: Sept 16, 12:00 midday UK time). Join me at the Sociology Department in Oxford to study global fertility change as part of the DIVREP project! 👇
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Fabien Accominotti @faccominotti.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Critiques of meritocracy are having a moment. In this review article, Mike Sauder and I look beyond the "we think it promotes equity, but it doesn't" argument.
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NBER @nber.org · 08/09/2026
Analyzing the 1930s Great Plains Shelterbelt, a large-scale forestation program across the US Midwest, from @floriangrosset.bsky.social, Anna Papp, and Charles A. Taylor www.nber.org/papers/w35695
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This, to me, is intersectionality.
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Nuffield College Library @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
RobustiPy: An efficient next-generation multiversal library with model selection, averaging, resampling, and explainable AI doi.org/10.1016/j.pa... Paper in @cp-patterns.bsky.social by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social NSRF @dvaldenegro.bsky.social, Jiani Yan, Duiyi Dai & Associate Member @crahal.com
doi.org
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2026.101609
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Nathan Hoffmann @nathanihoff.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
My paper "Double robust, flexible adjustment methods for causal inference: An overview and an evaluation" is out in Social Science Research. Spoiler: In simulations, double robustness appears less important than flexibility, and OLS does pretty well! 🧵👇 1/7 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Michel Nivard @michelnivard.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
🚨& 🧵 Our new Nature paper is out! Across 46 cohorts and up to 1.14M people per Big Five trait, we do GWAS and ask how robust, generalizable and consequential the genetic signals underlying personality really are. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
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Thomas Lux @thomaslux.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Sociology in the tradition of Karl Mannheim says that what you live through in your impressionable years tends to leave a lasting imprint. But which events do people themselves count as formative for their lives? Our data visualization in Socius answers this. 1/6 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Michelle Jackson @mivich.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The brick is back!
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Ben Jarvis @benjarvis.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Messing around with blogging. This post, where I generate some simulated marriage data, is the first in a series about using clogit as a go-to for modeling assortative mating and mobility. benjaminfjarvis.com/blog/actors-...
simulated spatial distribution of singles in a two-dimensional grid, with singles distinguished by sex, age, and group membership. Three groups are segregated into three distinct clusters in the map, with younger singles more centralized.
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Tim Gill @timgill924.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I teach sociology at Tennessee. Some of my students don’t know they are subject to cultural hegemony.
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Queen Mary University of London @qmul.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Air pollution stunts children’s lung growth. New Queen Mary research found that improvements in air quality after the introduction of London’s ULEZ are associated with accelerated lung growth in children. Read more: shorturl.at/Jx86o
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Nuffield College, Oxford @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
📞 Calling academics in Sociology, Social Policy or Demography Join us in Oxford as a Sociology Group Visitor in 2027 to 2028 Applications are now open 📆 Deadline: Mon 28 Sept ✍️ Find out more and apply at: www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/our-research... #nuffsky
A light blue circular graphic overlays a dark blue graphic. Text on the background reads 'Nuffield Sociology Visitorships; 2027-28 academic year; The Sociology Group invites applications for a Visitorship at Nuffield College for the academic year 2027-28; Visitorships normally last between one and six months; Application deadline: 28 September 2026' There is the Nuffield College logo in the bottom right corner
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Katya Ivanova 🟥 @katyaoivanova.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Anyone have recent experiences with Journal of Family Issues? #FamilySociology #Sociology #Demography
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Jeremy Freese @jeremyfreese.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
A day later, I find myself still very saddened by the Arday saga and its end. I guess both very saddened personally and then also dismayed and discouraged professionally. He was subjected to a lot of gratuitous cruelty, preceded by what seems an extensive spell of deeply unfortunate enabling.
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Steven Ruggles @stevenruggles.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Curious about the invention of microdata? Our new paper in Demography reveals the story. doi.org/10.1215/0070...
Graph of involvement of PAA presidents with the Census Bureau, 1930-2019. Peak involvement was 1950-1969.
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s 𝚌𝚑 𝚛𝚕 𝐥𝐦𝚗 𝚗 @schrillmann.bsky.social · 20/07/2024
Adorno: Eigentlich kann man überhaupt nicht mehr wohnen. Adornos Mutter: Aber aufräumen kann man noch.
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Anastasia Menshikova @anmen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
How does the latte-drinking-liberals idea play out in the Swedish multi-party context? Find out in our article recently published in Journal of CSS: link.springer.com/article/10.1... Created together with brilliant @felixlennert.bsky.social, Elida Izani Ibrahim & @mhbodell.bsky.social!
link.springer.com
Partisan tastes or ideological divides? Everyday interests and political identities in a multi-party system - Journal of Computational Social Science
Everyday interests expressed in leisure, media consumption, or cultural practices, increasingly intersect with political orientations, making them strong signals of individuals’ political identities. ...
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Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.eurosky.social · 10/08/2026
Interesting paper by Kosuke Imai and Kentaro Nakamura on how to use LLMs to create treatments and conduct causal inference. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Causal Inference with Generative Artificial Intelligence: Application to Texts as Treatments
In this article, we demonstrate how to enhance the validity of causal inference with unstructured high-dimensional treatments like texts, by leveraging the power of generative Artificial Intelligen...
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Big new paper from @soubhikbarari.bsky.social and the team at NORC on AI-assisted conversational interviewing in SRM. At risk of summarizing overly briefly: It works, but respondents don't really like it. ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/...
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Aleks Scholz @aleks.mastodon.scot.ap.brid.gy · 06/08/2026
Peer-review crisis in three steps: First, make peer-reviewed papers the only currency, increase incentives to publish , even for students.
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Christopher Barrie @cbarrie.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Best non fiction recommendations for my holibobs?
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Kohli Foundation for Sociology @kohli-sociology.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
📢𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘄 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻!📢 We’re now accepting applications for the 2027 Kohli Fellowship at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center. 📆 Deadline 20 September 2026 Apply via our online portal: kohlifoundation.eu/programs-gro... @wzb.bsky.social #Postdoc #Fellowship #forSociology
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Øyvind Wiborg @oyvindw.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
New paper out! With Karl Ingar Røberg and Håvard Helland, we examine fast-tracking in mathematics in Norway. Fast-tracking seems to boost math achievements. We also find evidence that teachers compensate for disadvantaged family backgrounds. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Fast‐Tracks in Mathematics: Accelerated Learning, Self‐Selection or Teacher Bias?
This study examines high-achieving students in Norwegian lower secondary schools who follow accelerated learning trajectories in mathematics, so-called fast-tracks. It asks whether and how fast-track...
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 04/08/2026
We'll shortly be advertising *four* of our doctoral projects for 2027 entry 🎉📢 (stay tuned 👀)! If you have other projects in applied health and social data science that you'd like me to point people towards, let me know! Happy to help amplify, or even form a small colloquium of resharing 🤝❤️💬.
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Jani Erola @janierola.net · 02/08/2026
My son Eemil is about to begin his studies at Rotterdam Business School this autumn. If you know someone in the region who needs a trusty tenant, please let me known! Anything in a commutable range would definitely be fine, Eemil has already extended his search to Delft, Gouda and Dordrecht.
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Burak Sonmez @buraksonmez.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Our new study, just published in Migration Studies, draws on a large-scale survey experiment to identify when the US public condones Border Patrol’s violent response to unauthorised border crossings. @vdonna.bsky.social @sergioloiacono.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/migr...
Article's abstract
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 30/07/2026
New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...
the100.ci
Reviewer notes: Odds ratios are really odd
When psychological researchers investigate binary outcomes, they routinely report odds ratios to quantify the strength of an effect or an association. This is quite understandable given that psycholog...
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