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Daniel Valdenegro

@dvaldenegro.bsky.social
493 followers 1.2K following 83 posts

Postdoctoral / Senior Data Scientist Researcher at University of Oxford. Human Behaviour Modelling, Research Software Development and Causal Inference wannabe.

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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Nuffield College Library @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
See also this news story from @oxforddemsci.bsky.social New open-source tool helps researchers test robustness of findings www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/new-ope...
demography.ox.ac.uk
New open-source tool helps researchers test robustness of findings
Oxford researchers launch RobustiPy, a new open-source tool designed to make scientific findings more robust and reliable.
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 20/08/2026
How reliable is research 🤔? We publish RobustiPy in @cp-patterns.bsky.social: a highly accessible, #GNU-GPL 3.0 #python lib for #robustness analysis and #datascience. It may represent the “next generation” of #modeluncertainty, bringing a range of frontier #statistics methods into one toolkit 📊📈!
Graphical Abstract for RobustiPy!
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
It's not often the case that Ian Mckellen (a.k.a. 🧙)promotes your research project. But this just happened to our team of researchers developing survey and analysis for the national conversation. @melindacmills.bsky.social @andreatilstra.bsky.social @dvaldenegro.bsky.social @saicampbell.bsky.social
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Lee Hurley @hleehurley.com · 12/06/2026
Hundreds of strangers in Belfast working together. Doing shopping, providing accommodation, driving kids to school, people to hospital appointments. Have just been told of a woman close to us who hasn't left her house since Monday so we'll be sorting her out today and getting her anything she needs
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Bad news: Climate change could eliminate more than 90% of the range of 1 in 10 plant species by 2100. Good news: Well... technically there isn't any. But this paper does have terrific figures!
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John Allison @badmachinery.com · 18/05/2026
I just took part in The National Conversation to share my views on what it's really like living in our area right now. It's a major UK-wide project by researchers at Oxford University, and it only takes a few minutes. You should have your say too! www.national-conversation.ox.ac.uk
national-conversation.ox.ac.uk
The National Conversation
I just took part in The National Conversation to share my views on what it's really like living in our area right now. It's a major UK-wide project by researchers at Oxford University, and it only tak...
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Interested in publishing social science research in @natureportfolio.nature.com journals? Join today’s LCDS seminar with Sebastián Villamizar Santamaría, senior editor at Nature, on how social sciences fit within the Nature Portfolio ecosystem. 📍 Butler Room, Nuffield College 🕑 Today, 14:00–15:30
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Anne Lutz Fernandez @lutzfernandez.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Read this, then read @jessicacalarco.com's Holding It Together: How Women Became America's Safety Net
businessinsider.com
America's millennial daughters are sacrificing their careers to care for aging boomer parents
Unpaid caregiving costs the average American woman $295,000 in lost wages and retirement savings over a lifetime, jeopardizing her financial future.
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
New research from new LCDS member Jakub Bijak (among others) shows that better fertility forecasts depend on looking beyond total birth rates 👶📊 By accounting for birth order dynamics, predictions become more accurate and informative for policy & planning. 🔗 www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/improvi...
demography.ox.ac.uk
Improving Fertility Forecasts: New Research Highlights the Importance of Birth Order Dynamics
Demographic projections are central to understanding how populations evolve and to planning for the future. Governments, international organisations, and researchers rely on forecasts of fertility, mo...
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Creating a moral panic over low birth rates is how we get here: attacks on contraceptive methods and on public funding of family planning. 1/
nytimes.com
Opinion | Does the Trump Administration Really Want More Teen Pregnancies?
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Sasha's Retrobytes 🏳️‍⚧️ @sharkabytes.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
A world in animated motion 💜I'm glad the upcoming Olden Age HoMM game is going back to this perspective and having a larger view of the world. Heroes of Might & Magic III: Horn of the Abyss
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
👩‍🔬🤵‍♀️👩‍⚖️ For International Women’s Day @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social will host @melindacmills.bsky.social for a talk entitled "How to Be Brilliant Without Being Behaved". More details: www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/melinda... #IWD2026 #WomenInScience #Demography
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Yesterday @melindacmills.bsky.social delivered the Richard Doll Seminar🎓🎤 about the "Our Future Health" data. She outlined the exciting prospects of large-scale health data and her analysis of representativeness of the biobank population to a packed room, full of interested questions.
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
theguardian.com
Disappeared bodies, mass burials and ‘30,000 dead’: what is the truth of Iran’s death toll?
Testimony from medics, morgue and graveyard staff reveals huge state effort to conceal systematic killing of protesters
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 22/01/2026
Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez assured US of cooperation before Maduro’s capture
theguardian.com
Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez assured US of cooperation before Maduro’s capture
Exclusive: sources say powerful figures in the regime secretly pledged US and Qatari officials they would welcome Maduro’s departure Before the US military snatched Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, earlier this month, Delcy Rodríguez and her powerful brother pledged to cooperate with the Trump administration once the strongman was gone, four sources involved at high levels with the discussions told the Guardian. Rodríguez, who was sworn in on 5 January as acting president to replace Maduro, and her brother Jorge, the head of the national assembly, secretly assured US and Qatari officials through intermediaries ahead of time that they would welcome Maduro’s departure, according to the sources. Continue reading...
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Climate Policy Journal @climate-policy.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
#5: Climate action or delay: the dynamics of competing narratives in the UK political sphere and the influence of climate protest. Nicole Nisbett, @viktoriaspaiser.bsky.social, @estrangeirada.bsky.social & @dvaldenegro.bsky.social
tandfonline.com
Climate action or delay: the dynamics of competing narratives in the UK political sphere and the influence of climate protest
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 27/12/2025
‘It’s frightening’: How far right is infiltrating everyday culture
theguardian.com
‘It’s frightening’: How far right is infiltrating everyday culture
Extremist messaging now woven into music and YouTube videos, with one expert saying: ‘You can be radicalised sitting on your couch’
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 10/11/2025
UK commentator detained by ICE after Israel criticism to be released, family says
theguardian.com
UK commentator detained by ICE after Israel criticism to be released, family says
Sami Hamdi’s visa was revoked in what appeared to be retaliation for criticism of Israel while touring the US The family of British political commentator Sami Hamdi, who was detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in late October while on a speaking tour in the US, say he is set to be released and will be able to “return home soon”. “The government has agreed to release Sami,” the family said in a statement on Monday. “He will be able to return home soon insha’Allah.” Continue reading...
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Reproducible Research Oxford (RROx) @rr-ox.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Pleased to have hosted our workshop “Python Essentials with Git for Data Analysis” at the Weston Library in Oxford — a superb venue for two great days of learning. A huge thank you to our organisers, instructors, and helpers for making this workshop possible! #Oxford #Reproducibility #Carpentries
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 01/09/2025
🚨It's that exciting time of year!🚨 Our team has got TWO open DPhil (PhD) positions in #datascience + #health here at @oxforddemsci.bsky.social for 2026🎉! See for details: 1️⃣ 👉 crahal.com/HDS_2026.html 2️⃣ 👉 crahal.com/pophealth_2026.html Please share and help us to find our future teammates ❤️!
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 01/09/2025
🥳 Thrilled to bits about this! The first project is with the forever brilliant @melindacmills.bsky.social, and the second with the dream team of @sanderwagner.bsky.social & @dvaldenegro.bsky.social! I honestly can’t wait to begin supervising these exciting projects together🙇🙇🙇
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Jess Calarco @jessicacalarco.com · 25/07/2025
If this is what they're getting caught on camera doing--to teenage US citizens--just imagine what they're doing that we don't see. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
theguardian.com
Immigration agents told a teenage US citizen: ‘You’ve got no rights.’ He secretly recorded his brutal arrest
Video from Kenny Laynez-Ambrosio, 18, puts fresh scrutiny on the harsh tactics used to reach the Trump administration’s ambitious enforcement targets
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Liz Essley Whyte @lizessleywhyte.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
New exclusive 🗞️ Health secretary RFK Jr. plans to oust the members of an advisory panel that recommends which cancer screenings, HIV drugs and other preventive services insurers must cover at no cost www.wsj.com/health/healt...
wsj.com
Exclusive | RFK Jr. to Oust Advisory Panel on Cancer Screenings, HIV Prevention Drugs
The task force determines which preventive services insurers must cover at no cost to patients.
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
John Drury @profjohndrury.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Deradicalization of opinion among young people after the Chile uprising of 2019 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Sander Wagner @sanderwagner.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
New paper looking at health (mortality), education and earnings stagnation in the US through a cohort perspective. Somehow things really stop improving from the 1947 birth cohort onwards www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...
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Daniel Valdenegro @dvaldenegro.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
If you look too good in your profile picture I'll assume you are a bot and I'll block you. Sorry
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 02/07/2025
The first #metrics-and-models talk was fantastic🤗! Next: @ramina-sotoudeh.bsky.social on "Antenatal Selection: A novel approach for assessing the genetic and ecological drivers of who survives to birth". Details: metrics-and-models.github.io Sign up: metrics_and_models-subscribe@maillist.ox.ac.uk
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Kevin J. Kircher @kevinjkircher.com · 30/06/2025
New paper. I wish this wasn't the case, but most progress on reducing US greenhouse gas emissions is likely spurious. Why? EPA underestimates methane emissions from oil and gas. Relevant today as Repubs vote to gut IRA's methane monitoring/mitigation program. 🧵 authors.elsevier.com/a/1lL4K_6se4...
Two graphs from the paper. 

The left graph shows US net greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2022. The official EPA estimates decline fairly steadily from 6.6 gigatonnes per year in 2005 to 5.5 in 2022 (17% below 2005 levels), largely reflecting natural gas displacing coal for electricity generation. The adjusted estimates, which reflect independent measurements of methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure, end at 6.3 gigatonnes per year in 2022 (only 5% below 2005 levels).

The right graph shows 2022 emissions increasing linearly with the assumed global warming potential of methane. Climate scientists are divided on whether to use the 100-year GWP, 20-year GWP, or something in between. With methane warming impacts assessed via the 20-year GWP, the central 2022 emissions estimate is 7.9 gigatonnes per year - 20% *above* the EPA's official 2005 estimate.

Caption: Figure 1: Left: United States net greenhouse gas emissions over time. Right: Scaling of 2022 net emissions with methane’s GWP. After adjustment to reflect recent measurements of methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure, United States net emissions remain nearly as high as their 2005 level.
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London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine @lshtm.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Loneliness impacting 1 in 6 people according to WHO report Shereen Hussein explains #SocialConnection is vital to health & wellbeing with need for policies & interventions to tackle isolation & foster meaningful connections. www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/n...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
The best part of coauthoring is having someone to blame for your shared decisions
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 30/06/2025
Hurrying to post about RobustiPy, i forgot this fun animation i made for teaching purposes (with @deevybee.bsky.social on the SABS R3 CDT) around when we started developing. Specification uncertainty is just _one_ type of uncertainty, though; our forthcoming work looks at the role of random numbers!
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) @mpidr.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
🎓🎓🎓Congratulations, Antonino Polizzi!🎉🎉🎉 In May, @polizzan.bsky.social successfully defended his doctoral thesis, "The Causes and the Consequences of Growing Life Expectancy Shortfalls" @ox.ac.uk. ‪ Read all: www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even... @sociologyoxford.bsky.social @oxforddemsci.bsky.social
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Eike Mark Rinke @emrinke.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
This looks like some good evidence-assessment stuff right here.
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 30/06/2025
Such nice collaborations with @dvaldenegro.bsky.social, @jiani-y.bsky.social & @claireduiyidai.bsky.social . Possible because of generous contributions from @oxforddemsci.bsky.social / @centreforcare.bsky.social / @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social. Thanks to all for giving comments on it over the years!
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 30/06/2025
We also think it has some tight #dataviz, too! Here's the canonical `union.dta' dataset examined by other model uncertainty tools. See our paper and website for more examples of how to use the accessible Python app, released under an open source GNU GPL 3.0 license!
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 30/06/2025
🚀 RobustiPy is out of beta! Feature rich, we hope it becomes useful for model uncertainty / #datascience. We include 🔟 replications, including “unexplained discrepancies” in prior work! 📄 Preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2506.19958 💻 GitHub: github.com/RobustiPy/robustipy 🌐 Homepage: robustipy.github.io
arxiv.org
Introducing RobustiPy: An efficient next generation multiversal library with model selection, averaging, resampling, and explainable artificial intelligence
We present RobustiPy, a next generation Python-based framework for model uncertainty quantification and multiverse analysis, released under the GNU GPL v3.0. Through the integration of efficient boots...
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Brad Lander @bradlander.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Hi, this is Meg Barnette, Brad's wife. While escorting a defendant out of immigration court at 26 Federal Plaza, Brad was taken by masked agents and detained by ICE. This is still developing, and our team is monitoring the situation closely.
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A Jean Stevenson @amandajean.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders? “Fertility is below replacement” means next to nothing about how population size is changing or will change.
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Hamish Beath @hamishbeath.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
🚨Excited to share my new paper published in ERL: "An exploration and evaluation framework for climate change mitigation scenarios with varying feasibility and desirability", co-authored with @shivmit.bsky.social @robinlamboll.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social tinyurl.com/yh3rspns (1/8)
iopscience.iop.org
An exploration and evaluation framework for climate change mitigation scenarios with varying feasibility and desirability - IOPscience
An exploration and evaluation framework for climate change mitigation scenarios with varying feasibility and desirability, Beath, Hamish, Mittal, Shivika, Lamboll, Robin, Rogelj, Joeri
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 10/06/2025
It's been a real honour to work on putting this together in conjunction with @claireduiyidai.bsky.social, @ridhikashyap.bsky.social, @dvaldenegro.bsky.social, @rocher.lc, @jiani-y.bsky.social, and more.
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 10/06/2025
Join the mailling list for the seminar series via instructions on our website. If you're based @ox.ac.uk, we also have a local 'offline' meetup on alternating weeks. Please get in touch if you'd like to join, and we can share details for that, too; our objective is to be maximally accessible!
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 10/06/2025
We span @oxforddemsci.bsky.social, @oxpop.bsky.social, @sociologyoxford.bsky.social, @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social, and @oxengsci.bsky.social.
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 10/06/2025
It's been a real honour to work on putting this together in conjunction with @claireduiyidai.bsky.social, @ridhikashyap.bsky.social, @dvaldenegro.bsky.social, @rocher.lc, @jiani-y.bsky.social, and more.
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 10/06/2025
🔥Coming July 2: 'Metrics and Models'!🔥 A new seminar series on advanced modelling w/ impact across health/society. 🌍 Open to *ALL*! 🕑 Weds 2pm UK alternating weeks (online) 🔗 metrics-and-models.github.io 📬 metrics_and_models-subscribe@maillist.ox.ac.uk Brilliant speakers. *Please share*!
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Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
There is no bigger story right now than the White House asserting that California residents are in a state "of rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States."
whitehouse.gov
Department of Defense Security for the Protection of Department of Homeland Security Functions
MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE                THE ATTORNEY GENERAL
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Reposted by Daniel Valdenegro
Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
🚨 The end of an era for global health data — and a defining crossroads. In Jan 2025, the DHS Program—the backbone of health & demographic data in 90+ countries—was terminated after US aid cuts of up to 84%. Our researchers & global collaborators reflect on it in a recent pre-print🧵
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Our Douglas Leasure & @nickirons.bsky.social joined Migration Oxford to discuss epidemic preparedness & refugee healthcare— interdisciplinary approaches can drive real change for vulnerable populations. More info: migration.web.ox.ac.uk/event/enhanc... #RefugeeHealth #EpidemicPreparedness
migration.web.ox.ac.uk
Enhancing healthcare and epidemic response strategies in vulnerable settings; a discussion informed by lessons from fieldwork in displaced populations in Italy and Cyprus
Panel
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
📢 Job Alert: Associate Prof Digital Education @education.ox.ac.uk + @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social are hiring! Join a world-class research community, contribute to Digital & Social Change MSc 🗓️ Apply by 6 June 📍 Interviews 2 July 🔗 my.corehr.com/pls/. #DigitalEducation #EdTech #AcademicJobs
my.corehr.com
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Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University @oxforddemsci.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
👶 #Farage wants a UK baby boom — will it work? 🍼 Our Director @melindacmills.bsky.social says: “Throwing money at it doesn’t work.” Tax breaks ≠ baby boom. Work hours, #housing, #childcare — it takes an ecosystem. 📎 Telegraph article: tinyurl.com/m6b9kbxm #fertility #demography
tinyurl.com
Farage wants a British baby boom – but he’s missing a trick
Reform UK has moved into pro-natal policies territory – but experts warn there’s no magic silver bullet
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