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Cory Smith

@politicory.bsky.social
1.7K followers 560 following 413 posts

Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland. All about the long run and development #EconSky www.corybsmith.com

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Reposted by Cory Smith
Jas Easterly @jaseasterly.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Canada is our indispensable ally and friend. ✔️211 years since the last war ✔️~5,500 miles of shared border ✔️Economic and military integration. Only neighboring countries Portugal–Spain (225 years) and Sweden–Denmark and Britain–France (~211–212 years) have been at peace for so long.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Imagine if you mailed the IRS a check to pay your taxes, but they left their mail unopened for years and then arrested you for failure to pay taxes. That’s effectively what ICE is doing to increasing numbers of people now; people out of status only because of GOVERNMENT delay.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
My only contribution to the lottery debate is that the impacts of lottery wins have been studied already. e.g., $50k USD gets your kids 0.3pp more likely to go to college. The shot at $1m gets your kids 0.5 x 6pp ~3pp more likely to go to college. So, much higher! www.nber.org/papers/w22679
nber.org
Parental Resources and College Attendance: Evidence from Lottery Wins
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Claude is currently indirectly referring to itself as human ("human-transcribed" for work it transcribed). Should I be worried, Anthropic?
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Kori Schake @kschake.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
“My country right or wrong: when right, to be kept right, when wrong, to be put right.” - Major General Carl Schurz 🇺🇸
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
My calendar for the fall just shows one never-ending faculty meeting
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
There's something very satisfying about catching an LLM tripping up on a Stata "gotcha" behavior you're very familiar with and you can wisely instruct it with your experience
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
My take on the cell phone ban study (tom-dee.github.io/files/w35132...): I think the subjective well-being increase would be worth it, but we need to treat it as preliminary rather than definitive given how many outcomes and periods are tested
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Four months ago, the Trump admin “temporarily paused” immigration benefits for nationals of 39 countries plus the Palestinian Authority. Tens of thousands of applications each month have just been stuck in a filing cabinet with no progress. People are stuck in limbo; some are even losing their jobs.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
This should hopefully become a textbook example of “passthrough.” Consumers paid most of the tariffs in higher prices even though importers nominally made the payments Unfortunately, consumers won’t get rebates it seems
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Evil. No other word for it.
Donald J. Trump
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@realDonaldTrump
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?
We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
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Bill Kristol @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Gen. Caine and Adm. Cooper should put a statement now making clear the U.S. military will not follow orders that would mean committing war crimes, including military actions whose purpose would be to destroy a country or a civilization.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
In another world, another timeline, I have the space to marvel at these achievements without my mind falling back down to darknesses here on Earth
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The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 25/03/2026
Student visas for Africa’s best and brightest were canceled by the Trump administration, leaving empty seats and broken dreams. “A punch to the heart,” said one woman who lost her scholarship.
on.wsj.com
He Had a Full Ride at Duke—Until America Cut Him Off
Student visas for Africa’s best and brightest were canceled by the Trump administration, leaving behind empty seats and broken dreams.
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
89% – percentage of disaster aid requests Trump has approved for states with a Republican governor and two Republican senators 23% – percentage of disaster aid requests Trump has approved for states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
Line chart showing presidential approval rates for disaster aid requests submitted by Democratic- and Republican-led states, covering the period from the Reagan administration to today. The chart is based on a Politico/E&E News analysis of records from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
They were never serious about making this a "pause." Now, thousands of people can't get work permits or are separated from their spouses/kids because the administration wrote out a list of disfavored countries
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
I think the president should need Congressional approval to send thousands of ground troops to invade another country
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
I struggle to communicate my fury about the easing of sanctions on Russia's oil as a result of the Iran war. Unlike basically anything suggested as an objective in this fool war, containing Russia's ability to brutalize and dominate Eastern Europe *actually is* a vital US security interest.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Trump fantasizes about conquering NATO allies Canada, Denmark/Greenland, but we’re struggling to keep global shipping open with Iran — poorer, fewer allies, and a divided population Insane
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Thousands of people will likely die in this war and the most consistent rationale given is that it’s for one man’s ego Trump wants to be “personally involved” (per article). Not the US, not US interests — Trump personally
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
It’s incredible how much US military power can do without achieving concrete political goals. We removed one hostile head of state (Maduro) and maybe another (Khamenei) But what will change in Iran/Venezuela for the good?
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
It’s (effectively) a joke, but this actually reflects the real costs of tariffs. Businesses handed over the money but also raised their prices and bore less of the cost US Consumers paid most of the tariffs via those high prices, meaning they should get the rebates
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Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) @tradediversion.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Kevin Hassett condemning an analysis of the incidence of import tariffs that looks at import prices because he says one should also look at quantities. The second exhibit in libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is… is titled "China’s Share of U.S. Imports Has Fallen Markedly".
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Liberty Street Economics
Insight and analysis from the New York Fed's economists
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.
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Belinda Archibong @belindaarch.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Glad to see this is out in @nber.org WP series and since my excellent co-author @chinemeluokafor.bsky.social and I have been discussing the results for the past few weeks, here's an old-fashioned paper thread on why protests matter/can work to influence economic redistribution 1/n
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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
No one will be able to say they didn't know what was happening.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 02/02/2026
This implies death. Mass death. Caused directly by the decision of the White House and M*sk (then a top White House official) to recklessly obliterate—not reform—our overseas assistance capacity.
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Rep. Kelly Morrison @kellymorrisonmn.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
My office has been flooded with reports of the cruel, unsafe, unlawful conditions inside of the Whipple detention facility in Minneapolis. This weekend, I was finally granted access to perform oversight of the facility. youtu.be/0SxPn8n2Bfg
youtu.be
Rep. Morrison details her oversight of the federal Whipple building
YouTube video by Rep. Kelly Morrison
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Jess Calarco @jessicacalarco.com · 22/01/2026
This is sickeningly cruel and inhumane.
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
I'd just add I don't think the crisis is at all over, because Trump never sticks to agreements just because they're conventionally considered binding. The crisis will only be over when his regime is dislodged from Washington, if then.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland. And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.
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Patrick De Klotz @patdeklotz.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
A lot of international conflicts aren’t black-and-white, but here it is crystal clear. And it really sucks to unambiguously be the villain.
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David J. Bier @davidjbier.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Yesterday, the State Department expanded the immigrant visa ban to half of all legal immigrants, including all immigrants from 93 countries. No law was passed. Not even an executive order was signed. They just did it. Tweeted it. Banana Republic. www.cato.org/blog/new-ban...
cato.org
New Ban Bars Half of Legal Immigrants, Even Citizens’ Spouses & Kids
Congress needs to reassert its control over the legal immigration system and prevent further attacks by an administration intent on destroying its system.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Have a friend who is likely stranded from his wife & kids indefinitely because of this. No warning to people who have sunk years of their life into an onerous process www.npr.org/2026/01/14/g...
npr.org
U.S. to suspend immigrant visas from 75 countries over public assistance concerns
The State Department says it will suspend the processing of immigrant visas for citizens of 75 countries whose nationals are deemed likely to require public assistance while living in the United State...
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Fed rates at 3.5% is not a crime
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Anna Gifty @itsafronomics.blacksky.app · 12/01/2026
You do not want interest rates to be set by political whims because historically everyday people paid the price. Literally.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
🤔
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 07/01/2026
I am tired of the lies. Truth exists. This federal officer was clearly not "run over"—as the US president lied. He was not under attack. He was not forced to shoot this US citizen in the face. Draw the line now. Allowing government murder with impunity will harm all Conservatives, all Liberals.
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
I was listening to @thebulwark.com's Next Level podcast today and they were thinking through the chance that Trump actually tries to seize Greenland and there was a @jvl.bsky.social sort of 'I kinda hope he does it to drop the mask entirely' and I just cannot scream loudly enough: No, You Do Not. 1/
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
A bit contrary to my expectations, Kalshi has opposition candidates with majority odds* to run Venezuela by the end of the year kalshi.com/markets/kxve... * probabilities add up to > 100%, so adjustments necessary to say exactly
kalshi.com
Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? Odds & Predictions
Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?", or trade it yourself.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
The president cannot unilaterally declare war. At least with Iraq, they made a public case for regime change and held a congressional vote.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
This really is grotesque: they went through years-long citizenship processes and are now being denied simply because if the country they are from. It’s formalized bigotry.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
This corresponds to my basic, two-part take (1) the essay isn't my cup of tea, but 0/25 seems harsh based on the rubric (2) there are way saner grade dispute mechanisms that don't involve administrative leave and a national conversation
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Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
My wife went through this process. It’s horrific that it’s being turned into a game of Russian roulette by ICE.
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Cory Smith @politicory.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
This is really sad news -- and I'd hoped so hard this would never happen
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
This is very bad wjla.com/news/local/s...
wjla.com
3 people, including 2 National Guard troops, hurt in Northwest DC shooting
Metropolitan police are investigating a shooting in Northwest DCOfficers confirmed the gunfire in the area of 17th and I streets Northwest
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
🆕 How public education transforms opportunity: Evidence from the 1870 Education Act Today on VoxDev, Ben Milner explores lessons from British history showing how targeted public investment in education can help narrow the gap in opportunity between rich and poor children: voxdev.org/topic/educat...
voxdev.org
How public education transforms opportunity: Evidence from the 1870 Education Act
The 1870 Education Act demonstrates how targeted public investment in education can help narrow the gap in opportunity between rich and poor children.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 17/11/2025
Thanks, BLS Staff! #EconSky #NumbersDay www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
To the BLS Staff from the Leadership of the Friends of BLS
Welcome back. On behalf of the Friends of BLS, we extend our deepest appreciation to each of you for your work this year. As you return from the recent government shutdown, we want to express this gratitude. 

We know how disruptive and stressful government shutdowns can be—to operations but also to your professional and personal lives. Time and again, BLS employees demonstrate remarkable dedication, professionalism, and resilience. Your commitment to providing accurate, objective, and trusted statistics is essential to the nation’s economic understanding and decision-making.

You were missed. The work you do matters profoundly. Policymakers, businesses, researchers, communities, and millions of American families rely on BLS data every day, often without realizing the expertise, rigor, and care that make it possible. That value does not diminish during a shutdown; in fact, it becomes even more visible when your absence is felt.

Thank you for your continued service, your integrity, and your steadfast pursuit of excellence. The Friends of BLS stands with you, celebrates your return, and remains committed to advocating for the resources, support, and recognition you deserve.

We’re glad you’re back. The nation is stronger because of what you do.



Friends of BLS Co-Chairs: William Beach, Erica Groshen, Paul Schroeder

Friends of BLS Steering Committee Members: Tom Beers, Mary Jo Mitchell,
Demetra Nightingale, Steve Pierson, Ken Poole, Aaron Sojourner
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