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Paul Kohlenberg

@pkohlenberg.bsky.social
297 followers 295 following 139 posts

All views here in personal capacity. Now: Asia/China @Heinrich-Böll-Foundation 🇩🇪 Berlin. Previously: Director @hbs/hbf China Office 🇨🇳; Researcher German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Alum: FU Berlin, Warwick, IUP/Berkeley, Oxford.

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Reposted by Paul Kohlenberg
Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
57% of Canadians support the idea of Canada becoming a member of the European Union www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
theglobeandmail.com
Nearly 60% of Canadians support becoming a full member of the European Union, poll says
Results come amid heightened tension between Canada and the U.S., particularly over a wave of new tariffs on Canadian imports
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
The Trump budget once again proposes to eliminate NOAA OAR, which brings you the CO₂ Keeling Curve. In this piece, I argued that the Keeling Curve is a treasure that belongs to humanity as the most poignant indication of our impact on the environment and as a testament to our ability to document it.
sfchronicle.com
Trump’s budget takes aim at gold standard measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide
OPINION: “President Trump, a renowned climate change denier, has shown repeatedly that he has no use for scientific data that disproves his preconceived assumptions,” David Ho writes.
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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Germany's energy minister has correctly identified that it's sustainability that's crashing the German economy... First it was the pipeline supply of sustainability from Russia and now the seaborne supply of sustainability from the Gulf...
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Here it is - after Iceland last week, today the EU signed the Security and Defence Partnership with Australia. In Asia, the EU now has security partnerships with Japan, South Korea, India and Australia:
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Spain's renewables build-out has structurally decoupled its electricity prices from gas markets. Gas now sets the price in only 15% of hours, compared to 90% in Italy. Countries that invested early in clean power are far less exposed to fossil fuel price shocks. Those that didn't now pay the price.
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Sense Hofstede @sensehofstede.nl · 13/03/2026
Alexander Gabuev in FT: Trump’s choices are only pushing China and Russia closer together – ‘Beijing seemed reluctant to further increase its reliance on Russian energy. […] Trump’s war in the Middle East and the US naval blockade of Venezuela may change that calculus.’
ft.com
Trump’s choices are only pushing China and Russia closer together
Beijing and Moscow look to one another for energy and economic security amid geopolitical turbulence
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Jeez - these numbers for Europe are absolutely bonkers China's trade data for the first 2 months of the year. Exports to the EU up 27.8% Exports to Germany up 31.3% Exports to Netherlands up 17.9% Exports to France up 31.9% Exports to Italy up 36.4%
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Maximilian Pichl @maxpichl.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
40 Jahre lang wurde der Feministische Juristinnentag vom Bund gefördert - dieses Jahr wurde die Förderung kurz vor der Veranstaltung eingestellt. Der FJT ist eine sehr wichtige juristische Veranstaltung: viel Solidarität mit den Kolleginnen! taz.de/Neuer-Kurs-d...
taz.de
Neuer Kurs der Bundesregierung: Feminismus nicht mehr gewünscht
Frauenminsterin Karin Prien streicht Geld für den Feministischen Juristinnentag in Hamburg. Ihre Vorgängerinnen hatten ihn jahrzehntelang unterstützt.
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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
The EU has the tools to stand up to the US (read anti-coercion instrument) and I read @olofgill.bsky.social's statements to mean it is ready to use them if Trump really blocks all trade with Spain because Sánchez dares criticize him. The EU has to stand together.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Strategically it’s incredibly clever the EU is eroding the key levers of the green transition. As a net oil and gas importer being susceptible to repeated geopolitical supply and terms of trade shocks is just such a great place to be.
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
As transatlantic divorce plays out in Munich, China enjoys the silence My last dispatch from Bavaria on Beijing floating under the radar, looking for openings...
scmp.com
As transatlantic divorce plays out in Munich, China enjoys the silence
For long, China was a magnet for America’s rhetorical aggression. Now, it is the Europeans who are under fire.
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
It’s telling what the White House highlights with regard to Rubio’s speech. „Shared heritage“, „Christian foundations“, „cultural legacy“, „cultural preservation“, and a rejection of globalism. That‘s at the heart of its understanding of „Western civilization“.
Screenshot of a White House Press Release titled „In Munich, Secretary Rubio Calls on Allies to Embrace Shared Heritage, Meet Challenges of New Era“.
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Merz at MSC: Europe will not adopt MAGA vision of free speech. It does not support tariffs and protectionism. It believes in climate change and the need for the WHO. "The US will run up against its own limits if it tries to go it alone"
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
"As Japan’s election showed on Sunday, coercive pressure from abroad — in this case from China — can backfire badly on the coercer."
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/u...
nytimes.com
Trump, in an Escalation, Calls for Republicans to ‘Nationalize’ Elections
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Sophie Pedder @sophiepedder.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Can Europe do nuclear deterrence without America? France and the UK are deepening their cooperation. Other European conversations with the continent’s two nuclear-armed powers are also underway A joint report with @shashj.bsky.social economist.com/europe/2026/...
economist.com
Can Europe do nuclear deterrence without America?
Britain and France are deepening their co-operation
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Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 30/01/2026
The trade pact may be getting all the attention, but the pair also inked a landmark defense agreement this week.
foreignpolicy.com
The Other India-EU Deal
The trade pact may be getting all the attention, but the pair also inked a landmark defense agreement.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 27/01/2026
Breaking News: India and the EU announced a free-trade agreement nearly 20 years in the making.
nyti.ms
In Trump’s Shadow, India and the European Union Expand Trade Ties
After nearly 20 years of negotiations, the two sides struck a far-reaching agreement that officials called “the mother of all trade deals.”
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Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
The EU and #India are the runners-up in their respective half of the globe. But if they team up, they‘ll show the world that they have options, too. 🇪🇺🇮🇳 My latest for The @economist.com. economist.com/europe/2026/...
economist.com
Europe is about to sign a long-awaited free-trade deal with India
One way to show America and China that also-rans have options, too
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Maaike @maaikeverbruggen.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
No idea if this will be good so it is not an endorsement per se, but curious to see how it develops
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Andreas Landwehr @andreaslandwehr.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
China’s top military leaders Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli put under investigation www.scmp.com/news/china/p...
scmp.com
Breaking | China’s top military leaders Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli put under investigation
Pair suspected of ‘serious violations of discipline and law’.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/01/2026
Many western multinationals are losing enthusiasm for China • European and US firms cut employment in China by almost 10% between 2019 and 2023 • Several big US firms like Starbucks, IBM and Airbnb have pulled out of China, completely or in part www.economist.com/briefing/202...
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 22/01/2026
Die Ära der Pax Americana geht zu Ende. Europa kann sich nicht länger auf die Partnerschaft mit den USA verlassen. Eine Studie von Barbara Lippert & Stefan Mair (Hg.) zeigt in 14 Beiträgen Wege aus der Abhängigkeit von Washington. (1/4) www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
swp-berlin.org
Mit, ohne, gegen Washington: Die Neubestimmung der Bezie­hungen Europas zu den USA
Die Epoche der Pax Americana, die nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg Deutsch­lands und Europas Sicherheit garantierte, kommt an ihr Ende. Die Europäer...
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Andreas Landwehr @andreaslandwehr.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
„We believe Beijing has become increasingly concerned about one of the worst domestic demand slowdowns in this century“ www.wsj.com/economy/chin...
wsj.com
Chinese Policymakers Look Focused on Domestic Demand to Lift Economy
Senior state planners are formulating a five-year plan to lift domestic demand, acknowledging that the world’s second-largest economy currently faces an imbalance between “strong supply and weak deman...
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Reposted by Paul Kohlenberg
Sense Hofstede @sensehofstede.nl · 22/01/2026
NATO’s Rutte says Arctic talks with Trump will focus on keeping Russia and China out – Reuters
reuters.com
NATO's Rutte says Arctic talks with Trump will focus on keeping Russia, China out
Trump's ambitions have put strain on the NATO alliance.
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
The uncomfortable truth is that we no longer know the answer. U.S. security guarantees are conditional, transactional, and potentially unreliable. A far stronger European defence is no longer a matter of ambition or prestige—it is a necessity. 3/4
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
China's newly added energy storage capacity last year grew 40% asia.nikkei.com/business/ene... "Benchmark Intelligence forecasts China will install 239 GWh of new capacity this year, making up more than half the 458.5 GWh expected globally."
asia.nikkei.com
China battery storage installations triple North America's in 2025
Gap expected to grow this year despite AI-fueled demand in US
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/w... "Members of Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, for their part, say that the opposition is trying to paralyze his administration."
nytimes.com
Taiwan’s $40 Billion Military Spending Plan Stalled by Political Impasse
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Made in China Journal @madeinchinajournal.com · 21/01/2026
In this essay, @jleibold.bsky.social and Soyonbo Borjgin expose the systematic dismantling of Mongolian-medium schooling in Inner Mongolia and argue that changing school names from Mongolian into Chinese constitutes one of the final acts in cancelling once-promised autonomy and sovereignty.
madeinchinajournal.com
Rectifying Names, Erasing Mongols: The Unmaking of Mongolian Education in China
On a clear October morning in 2025, two massive cranes rolled up to a middle school in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Workers prised off the large Chinese and Mongolian signs running along the ...
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
China clocked its lowest birth rate on record in 2025. Overall population drop by 3.39 million 7.92 million babies born 11.31 million deaths 🇨🇳 Rate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025 edition.cnn.com/2026/01/18/c...
edition.cnn.com
China’s birth rate drops to record low as economy hits target despite US trade war | CNN
China clocked its lowest birth rate on record in 2025 as its population shrank for the fourth year in a row, deepening a demographic challenge that could drag on the world’s second-largest economy for...
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Reposted by Paul Kohlenberg
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
MOST INTERESTING *German business lobby* says retaliatory tariffs, ACI + cancelling Turnberry "plausible" From BDI: "It is understandable EP is now postponing vote on US trade agreement. We also consider considerations re retaliatory tariffs or the use of ACI to be plausible at this stage"
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Even allowing for some rerouting via third markets, the asymmetry is clear: the EU is far more dependent on Chinese clean tech than the United States, while China is far more dependent on the EU market than on the US. Great chart from the CER's new paper: www.cer.eu/publications...
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
"...zeigt, dass es richtig war, auf den di­plo­ma­tischen Affront im Oktober mit einer demonstrativen Absage der Reise zu reagieren. Auch wenn China in einer deutlich stärkeren Position als Europa ist, zahlt sich selbstbewusstes Auftreten aus." www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
faz.net
Wadephul in China: Selbstbewusstsein lohnt sich
Der relativ freundliche Empfang für den deutschen Außenminister in Peking zeigt: Es war richtig, im Oktober auf den diplomatischen Affront mit einer Absage der Reise zu reagieren.
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Johann Wadephul @aussenminister.diplo.de · 08/12/2025
Wir haben großes Interesse daran, immer wieder Verständnis füreinander zu entwickeln. So auch in unserem – mit Omid Nouripour, Nicolas Zippelius & Ralf Stegner – sehr guten Gespräch mit Liu Haixing, dem Leiter der Internationalen Abteilung der Kommunistischen Partei, die China entscheidend prägt.
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Cars 🇨🇳 can't sell at home: "boom in gasoline-powered exports is driven by the same EV subsidies and policies that wrecked the China businesses of automakers including VW, GM and Nissan by underwriting scores of Chinese EV makers and igniting a devastating price war" www.reuters.com/investigatio...
reuters.com
China floods the world with gasoline cars it can't sell at home
While Western nations focus on the competitive threat of Chinese EVs, a different challenge is reshaping the auto industry. Beijing's legacy automakers are saturating emerging and second-tier markets ...
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Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Our new ASPI report 'The Party’s AI' is out now. It shows how China’s LLMs, vision models and “AI+” governance architecture are hard-coding censorship and control into the future of AI. www.aspi.org.au/repo...
Cover of ASPI’s “The Party’s AI”. A lone man stands on a road where tanks should be, but they’ve been erased, mirroring how Chinese LLMs censor sensitive images. For more, see Chapter 1.
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Vera Benatar @verabenatar.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
📚 ThinkPeace #3 is out now! The paper sheds light on the widespread and systematic, yet largely underreported crime of enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions of Ukrainian civilians by Russian authorities.
boell.de
A Human Security Collapse: Enforced Disappearances and Detained Civilians in Russia’s War Against Ukraine | Heinrich Böll Stiftung
Enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions of Ukrainian civilians by Russian authorities are systematic and widespread, yet severely underreported. Germany and the EU must use diplomatic leverag...
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
👇
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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
The wonderful @oonahathaway.bsky.social does not hold back: our international legal order is at risk. And she has some proposals... www.theguardian.com/law/2025/nov...
theguardian.com
Willing states must act to save international legal order, warns top academic
Yale professor says wars in Ukraine and Gaza and threats from Donald Trump risk the ‘total collapse’ of the global courts system
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Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung @boell.de · 06/11/2025
🟢 Wir laden ein zur Buchvorstellung 📖 "Das Versagen – Eine investigative Geschichte der deutschen Russlandpolitik" I 📅 Mi, 10. Dezember 2025 I 🕕 19.30 – 21.00 Uhr I 📍 Schumannstr. 8, 10117 Berlin oder im Livestream 🎬 I Infos & Anmeldung ⬇️ calendar.boell.de/de/event/das...
calendar.boell.de
Das Versagen – Eine investigative Geschichte der deutschen Russlandpolitik Mit Katja Gloger und Georg Mascolo im Gespräch mit Franziska Brantner
Warum hielt Deutschland so lange an der Vorstellung fest, Russland sei ein verlässlicher Partner? Welche Fehleinschätzungen prägten die deutsche Haltung gegenüber Wladimir Putin und warum blieb Angela...
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Jeremy Page 裴杰 @jnbpage.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Can China lead the world on climate action? In a 6-part special report in this week's Economist, Gabriel Crossley and I explore how China became the world's green energy superpower and why it has reached a tipping point in its approach to climate change www.economist.com/special-repo...
economist.com
A time that has come | Nov 8th 2025 | The Economist
A time that has come. Special reports from The Economist. You've seen the news, now discover the story.
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
"The non-colonials can decolonize but in a way that does not challenge the decolonization of the ex-colonials." resolve.cambridge.org/core/journal... Interesting read on "the strategic use of customary international law and ancient literature in the South China Sea dispute"
resolve.cambridge.org
Can the Non-Colonials Decolonize? | American Journal of International Law | Cambridge Core
Can the Non-Colonials Decolonize? - Volume 119
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Paul Kohlenberg @pkohlenberg.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
"China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, (...) Chinese exports are on track to reach another record this year." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Filiz Polat 🌈💚☮️🦔 @filiz-polat.de · 04/11/2025
Deutschland auf dem Weg ins Industriemuseum? Deutliche Kritik von EWE-Chef Stefan Dohler an der Energiepolitik der Bundesregierung. Bremsen könne keine Strategie zum Überholen im globalen Wettbewerb sein kann. www.fr.de/wirtschaft/f...
fr.de
„Führt Deutschland ins Industriemuseum“: EWE-Chef warnt Merz-Regierung
EWE-Chef Stefan Dohler kritisiert die Energiepolitik der Regierung. Er warnt vor einer Verlangsamung der Energiewende. Die Innovationskraft könnte leiden.
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Norbert Röttgen @nroettgen.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Abhängigkeiten abbauen kostet Geld. Aber Sicherheit und Unabhängigkeit sind nun mal keine kostenlosen Güter, man muss in sie investieren. Nach der Erfahrung mit Russland sollte es für uns selbstverständlich sein, das zu tun. www.welt.de/politik/deut...
welt.de
Norbert Röttgen: „Wir haben diese Realität ignoriert. Jetzt fühlt sich China stark genug“ - WELT
Strategische Politik im Umgang mit China? Fehlanzeige, kritisiert CDU-Außenpolitiker Röttgen. Nach wie vor mache sich die Bundesrepublik „erpressbar“ durch die Diktatur. Peking schätze Deutschland heu...
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Anna Cavazzini @annacavazzini.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Auch wenn im Handelskonflikt der USA mit China alle kurz durchatmen: Im Dreieck Trump, Xi & EU dürfen wir nicht untergehen. Wir müssen als EU nicht nur als Anhängsel der USA auftreten, sondern eine viel eigenständigere Politik machen, sage ich der tagesschau www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...
tagesschau.de
EU reagiert zurückhaltend auf Handelsdeal zwischen USA und China
Angesichts der Entspannung im Handelsstreit zwischen den USA und China zeigt sich die EU erleichtert. Der Deal könnte bei eigenen Verhandlungen mit Peking helfen. Doch in Brüssel ist auch klar: Die EU...
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Party-to-party talks between Germany’s Social Democrats and China’s Communist Party are a relic from another era. But SPD Vice Chancellor/Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is keeping the tradition alive. He risks becoming a pawn in Beijing’s divide and rule game
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Heinrich Böll Stiftung Southeast Asia @boellsea.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
ASEAN Regional Press Review, October 2025 th.boell.org/en/media/fil... To subscribe to our press review and to see archives from year 2019 to 2025, check out the link below 👇 bit.ly/4nuOla6
Subscribe to monthly ASEAN Press Review
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