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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The increase in China's August solar and wind power generation from 2025 to 2026 was equal to Germany's total power consumption during the month.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Why did China's coal&gas power output fall 4% in August? Three reasons: power generation from wind and solar grew much more than reported, as always; industrial power demand growth slowed down; and milder temperatures drove a drop in residential demand. How to parse the data 👇

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW from us: EU's CO2 fell 2% in H1 2026, behind the pace needed to meet 2030 targets, with a rise in gas-fired generation and insufficient clean energy growth driving up power sector emissions. Emission trends also show the need to electrify transport, buildings and industry.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

How have the oil and gas markets balanced with exports from the Gulf restricted? In Q3, the increases in oil exports from the U.S. fizzled out, leaving even more of the shortfall to be absorbed by lower imports. For LNG, its a mix of both but also some striking jumps in imports.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The solar panels, electric vehicles, EV batteries and wind turbines exported by China in 2025 will avoid annual emissions equal to those of the UK and Portugal combined, according to my new estimates. Avoided emissions increased 30% compared with 2024 exports.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

NEW from us: five years after China pledged to stop overseas coal power projects and support clean energy, dozens of coal power plants have been canceled and the country's overseas clean energy financing has seen impressive growth, but gaps remain in the coal ban.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The past few months saw the release of a dozen sectoral five-year plans dealing with energy, industry, emissions and the environment by different government bodies. Our China team has put together a guide to what they all mean.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

NEW from us: India's rapid clean power expansion has kept power sector emissions flat for two years, for the first time in over 50 years, and sharply reduced fossil fuel imports. Oil and gas consumption have also fallen for two years in a row, helping alleviate the Hormuz shock.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Power generation from coal and gas fell 4% in China in August, as solar and wind covered all electricity demand growth and hydropower and nuclear grew as well. Cement production fell 12%, crude steel 4% and oil refinery output 7%, indicating emission reductions across the board.

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air @creacleanair.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

🇮🇩 NEW | Indonesia Air Quality Tracker ❓️How clean is the air in Indonesia? 💡 CREA’s new Indonesia Air Quality Tracker brings air-quality data from 155 monitoring sites across 119 cities ⤵️

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air @creacleanair.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

🇮🇩 🔥🌳 Amid severe forest and land fires, chronic, non-fire air pollution remains the invisible, constant driver of #Indonesia's national health crisis, pushing August's total #airpollution-attributable deaths to 3,700 across the 15 most impacted provinces 🧵⤵️

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

There's increasing speculation that China is returning to the oil market, but no sign of it in tanker loading data. Rather looks like they're having to pay more to keep imports from falling even further. This is tanker departures which show up as imports with several weeks' lag.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

NEW from me: China's CO2 emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, as oil consumption plummeted amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with EVs and public transport among the key factors. Oil consumption fell by 9% overall and by 16% for transport. 🧵

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

This headline is of course entirely symbolic - coal still generates almost four times as much electricity and about 8 times as much total energy as solar in China. The much bigger milestone is that coal generated less than 50% of China's power in the first half of 2026.

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air @creacleanair.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

⚕️🇿🇦 REPORT LAUNCH & WEBINAR | On International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies, join us as we examine the economic & health impacts of air pollution from South Africa’s largest coal-to-liquids facility 🗓️ Monday, 7 Sept. 2026 🕝️14:30 SAST | CEST ▶️ Register: bit.ly/459Ye6C w/ @justsharesa.bsky.social

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Breaking: The fossil fuel shock caused by the closure of the Hormuz has cost $330 bn in fuel import costs in the past six months. The cost of the crisis equals all global investments in renewable power in 2025, on a per-month average basis.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

The falling trend in China's coal-fired power generation isn't limited to July: coal power has now been falling for eight weeks straigth, from mid-June to mid-August. The second week of August saw a sharp 12% drop year-on-year.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Steep drop in China's CO2 emissions in July: -power generation from coal&gas -3.5% -coal mine output -10% in July, -3% year-to-date -cement output -12% in July, -9% YTD -crude steel output -4%, -3% -oil refining -16%, -7%

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Three Chinese energy specialists respond to my analysis of China's carbon intensity data, which showed that China changed the numbers in a way that erased a major shortfall to 2025 target and enabled a weak 2030 target.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

New, in-depth work by our Indonesia team and data team, identifying the worst air pollutant emission hotspots in Indonesia and proposing solutions.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

EVs made up over 60% of all vehicles sold by Chinese automakers in July, and 50% year-to-date, both for the first time. They reached a 68% share of domestic passenger car sales and over 50% of vehicle exports.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

First severe oil spill caused by a shadow tanker carrying Russian oil. I hope coastal states finally get serious about the risk and about addressing it.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

China's wind power capacity additions in the first half of 2026 were 39GW, much higher than any year before the record-setting 2025. Solar capacity additions, at 72GW, are down sharply from 2025 but tied with 2023 which saw over 200GW added during the full year.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

New validation of our near-real-time tracking of EU CO2 emissions finds that we get within 0.5%-points of data released by government and academics with a much longer delay, while providing much more granular estimates by sector and day/week/month.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

New from us: China's coal-fired power generation rebounded in the first half of 2026. Rapid expansion of coal power capacity led to worsening oversupply, reflected both in the increase of wasted wind and solar generation and in falling utilisation of coal power plants.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

OECD power generation from gas has seen a significant drop in the five months since LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz were first disrupted. This has not resulted in an increase in coal-fired generation as solar and wind have covered demand growth and the fall in gas.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

These two roles are open for application until Friday - but the sooner the better as I'm already working through the applications.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Trade data for July will soon show significant jumps in oil imports for China, Japan and South Korea, compared to June. This might seem a return to the market but it's just a delayed effect of the brief re-opening of Hormuz in June; tanker departures have now fallen back down.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, made up over half of China's auto exports for the first time in June. See our monthly snapshot for a lot more on China's energy trends. 👇

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

JOB OPPORTUNITY: Come work with me to produce timely, high-impact analysis of the biggest developments in energy, economy and air pollution! We're looking for a data scientist to produce cutting edge analysis and an insights analyst to turn it into high-quality briefings.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

One of the main factors balancing the oil market has been the Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu port. The pipeline and facilities at each end are vulnerable to attacks. Iran definitely still has the ability to cause a full-blown global oil crisis if it chooses to do so.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

A striking, touching illustration of the shifting baseline syndrome. To someone from two generations ago, what we think of as beautiful, unspoiled nature would seem, or in this case, sound, like an almost barren landscape with just a couple of odd survivor species hanging on.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Ukraine has shown that redundancy, distributed generation & storage and heroic repair crews can keep the lights on and grids up under relentless attacks. The lessons from Russia's invasion, Ukraine's counter strikes nor war on Iran haven't begun to be internalized in the rest of the world.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

There's no fossil fuel based energy security in the age of ubiquitous cheap long-range attack drones.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

China's thermal (coal&gas-fired) power generation continued to rebound in June (+0.5%) and Q2 (+2%) but remained below its 2023 peak. Oil refinery throughput plummeted by 18%, showing role of consumption cuts and product inventories in absorbing the sharp fall in imports.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

China's crude oil imports fell by no less than 41% on year in June and 11% in the first half of the year. Fossil gas imports were down 3% in H1 while coal imports were up 2% but still down 10% compared with 2024.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

NEW from us: China's traffic-related air pollution levels dropped sharply after the Hormuz crisis, as fuel consumption fell and EV use surged. This is more evidence that the fall in China's oil import isn't just inventory drawdown but real consumption cuts. 🧵

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Reposted by Lauri Myllyvirta

Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

3/ Irony number two. I was told for years that climate change is a hoax and British summers aren't getting hotter. Now the same voices demand to know why Britain never installed AC. You cannot have it both ways. The case for cooling IS the case that the climate is changing.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

A Turkish court overruled the permit for the expansion of the country's most polluting coal power plant, citing impacts on human health and other negative impacts.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

China targets an EV share of 30% out of all vehicles on the road by 2030, up from 12% at the end of 2025. This is a significant target given that the share of EVs in new registrations was 49% in 2025 and the share increased 3.1pp - the new target requires 3.6pp/year.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

If countries kept growing the share of clean power at the same rate as in the past 6 years, when would they have 100% non-fossil power? By this simple measure, 13 developed countries are on track to clean power by 2035, and 7 developing countries by 2050. Others need to speed up.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Which countries are actually succeeding in building clean energy? China leads in absolute volumes, no surprises there, but relative to the size of the energy system, five other countries achieved larger increases in the past six years.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

India's power system is strongly affected by El Nino, with increased demand for AC and lower hydropower and wind generation. Increased risk of heat deaths shows the need for AC. Solar power output is not affected and correlates very well with the additional power demand.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

China’s new five-year environment plan, Building a Beautiful China, is out. For energy and air quality, the plan sends two different signals: stronger action in the main air pollution control regions, but weak national-level ambition.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

New from us: almost 10 GW of coal-fired power is planned in Indonesia to power aluminum refining, despite the fact that solar plus storage can now compete on cost with coal. Many of the aluminum plants are Chinese-owned, flouting Xi's commitment not to build coal power overseas.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Adoption of air conditioning in Europe at U.S. levels would bring massive health benefits, while the emission implications would be minuscule, unlike many suggest - and, done right, it would help the clean energy transition by boosting electrification and clean energy. 🧵

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Sobering - despite record clean energy growth, global fossil fuel consumption increased in 2025. Even with the energy efficiency gain from using clean electricity, it looks like clean energy growth needs to double to push fossil fuels down.,

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

A detailed assessment of China's five-year plan for energy from our China team.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

China's newly released five-year plan for the energy sector has very little to get excited about. To keep China's energy transition on track, the targets have to be exceeded by a wide margin, or ambition has to be nudged up from the top.

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