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Agathe Demarais

@agathedemarais.com
5.9K followers 999 following 1.1K posts

Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Columnist @foreignpolicy.com Permanent advisor, French MFA • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, geopolitics of AI, fine tea 🍵 💌 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com

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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 7h
Drop in price of solar panels is fuelling installations across the world • Installed solar capacity totalled 1.2TW worldwide at end-2025, or three times global nuclear power fleet • China leads the way, accounting for nearly half of global solar capacity www.ft.com/content/8b70...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 11h
Five largest hyperscalers - Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle - could invest $800bn this year • Capex plans focus on AI, but current estimated AI revenue remains below break-even • AI users would need to spend $1trn/year for hyperscalers to generate returns www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 14h
🚨🚨 @coe.int of Europe said yesterday that the #US formally notified it that it would leave the Group of States against Corruption, or #GRECO. Only two other countries have left GRECO before — #Russia and #Belarus. The fall of the #US on the world scene is striking. apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com
US withdraws from European anti-corruption panel in latest shift away from global groups
The Trump administration has withdrawn the United States from a top European anti-corruption watchdog.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 15h
Vast majority of Chinese children do not enrol in global PISA test • China only enrols pupils from Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang (BSJZ) to PISA • After adjusting for this, score for China as a whole for maths could stand around 536, or 4th place globally www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
Hyperscalers' borrowing costs now stand above those of US high-quality firms • Borrowing costs started to climb in September 2025 amid massive wave of debt issuance • Higher costs reflect concerns around emergence of AI bubble; hyperscalers plan Capex of US$800bn this year www.ft.com/content/00f9...
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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Those who actually study the numbers are deeply sceptical of the China Shock 2.0 narrative taking over the EU. But heck, why let the facts or indeed the absence of any actual strategy get in the way of a really good panic?
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
Mainstream narrative of China shock decimating EU industry may be overblown • Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports • China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3% www.economist.com/business/202...
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Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Bill Gates says getting countries to agree on AI regulations will be harder than Cold War-era nuclear negotiations www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...
nbcnews.com
Bill Gates says getting countries to agree on AI regulations will be harder than Cold War-era nuclear negotiations
The Microsoft co-founder said he believes governments should be involved in monitoring what AI does and that it won’t slow down the industry’s progress.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Indonesian island of Karimun has become hub for Russian oil exports to Asia • Karimun terminal acts as entry point for Russian oil heading to Asia - with new Indonesian origin • Data show how sanctions policy is constant game of whack 'a mole to close loopholes www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"While public companies routinely outline product risks to investors, few, if ​any, have issued warnings suggesting their technology could cause potential human extinction." www.reuters.com/business/fin...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic warns AI may pose 'existential risks to humanity' in IPO filing
It's an extraordinary warning by a company seeking to profit from the same technology.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
Mainstream narrative of China shock decimating EU industry may be overblown • Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports • China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3% www.economist.com/business/202...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Indonesian island of Karimun has become hub for Russian oil exports to Asia • Karimun terminal acts as entry point for Russian oil heading to Asia - with new Indonesian origin • Data show how sanctions policy is constant game of whack 'a mole to close loopholes www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I struggled to finish reading this important and horrifying reporting www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
theatlantic.com
The Babies Left Behind in America
The United States is deporting parents without their children, creating a whole new family-separation crisis.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Anthropic's AI models are proving increasingly popular • On net basis Claude is model that people would like to use more the most; Grok's prospects are much less positive • Data do not account for Chat-GPT Astra 6 release, which may have changed picture in OpenAI's favour www.ft.com/content/01a7...
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ukraine's $27 billion deficit has been cut to $20 billion after tough savings, Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky says. "We have not yet found a way to cover these expenses. This is not news. This is not additional money. This is what Ukraine talked about at the beginning of this year."
interfax.com.ua
Корецький: ми поки що не знайшли покриття ще $20 млрд видатків
Прем'єр-міністр України Сергій Корецький заявив, що заявлений дефіцит фінансування у $27 млрд стосується $155 млрд, про які Україна заявила на початку року, як потреба на війну, але його вже вдалося с...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Politicians are increasingly using AI to prepare speeches • Across English-speaking legislatures, heaviest AI-users are Australian and Canadian MPs, while US senators use it least • Voters dislike AI use for speeches more than for any other sort of political writing www.economist.com/britain/2026...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026
Russia is expanding uranium mining operations • Russia produced 5% of global uranium output domestically in 2024; share rises to 25% when accounting for Russian overseas mines • Rosatom aims at controlling entire supply chain, from mining uranium to running nuclear plants www.ft.com/content/b711...
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NEW: The big story is not Chinese EVs everywhere —but Chinese EV factories everywhere. And its not just Chinese firms going out. Our CM-FDI database tracks every foreign Solar, Wind, EV and battery manufacturing plant built in 21st century. cmfdi.netzeropolicylab.com
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Dean Baker @deanbaker13.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Great story of AI productivity! It has created an arms race for insurers and providers try to squeeze money out of the government and/or patients. Let's put JD Vance's fraud task force on the case :)
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026
AI-fuelled tech sector now accounts for more than half of the S&P500 market capitalisation • Hyperscalers are biggest bond issuers and major infrastructure projects are mostly data centres • Even Treasuries are part of AI trade as extra power demand fuels inflation www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026
KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
Russia's crude output dropped in August for ninth consecutive month • August output was 1.2m b/d below level agreed with OPEC+ • Drop reflects impact of Ukrainian strikes on refineries/export infrastructure, forcing cuts to crude output for lack of storage capacity www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · 24/09/2026
Please excuse me while I scream into a cushion at the thought of ALL the articles I had to write on the "UK productivity puzzle" in the 2010s www.ft.com/content/c819...
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Here's today's column on the astonishing, ongoing mistreatment of people with #ME/CFS. Please spread it far and wide: the only thing which can break the media's wall of indifference is seeing an article about the issue go viral. Thank you. 1/2 www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Abandoned, dismissed and gaslighted: there is no excuse for the way ME sufferers have been betrayed | George Monbiot
Changes in guidance and science seem to have little impact on millions of devastated lives. It’s a social crisis playing out behind closed doors, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
Russia's sanctions-busting cryptocurrency network A7 (and its currency A7A5) keeps growing • Network had $93bn turnover in 2025, with most transactions linked to China and Hong Kong • A7A5 holders can convert coins into US dollar-pegged stablecoins instantly, with no KYC www.ft.com/content/3848...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
Revenues of most US firms present in China have been stagnating since 2023 • Data reflect fierce local competition and sluggishness of Chinese economy • Amid low returns, many US firms have stopped investing into China and are shrinking operations www.economist.com/business/202...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026
On top of Hormuz, Black Sea blockade threatens food supply shock • Grain supplies have been choked off since July as war in Ukraine escalates into attacks on ports, grain terminals, vessels • Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
What happened when English communities delayed children's smartphones? Mental-health needs and child psych disability claims both fell by 6-8% with effects accumulating over time. From @greg-veramendi.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
Smartphones and children's mental health | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on delaying children’s smartphone ownership through a community-led policy.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026
Ahead of IPO, US$2trn valuation for Anthropic is not far-fetched • In August firm expected US$65bn in revenues on annualised basis; some investors bet on annual revenues of US$320bn by end-year • Only 18 months ago, Anthropic expected 2027 revenue to stand at just US$12bn www.ft.com/content/01a7...
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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I did an analysis of Russian and Ukrainian grain export data for the 2026-2027 season. When comparing to the prior 2025-2026 grain export season Ukraine's grain exports decreased noticeably but Russian grain exports outright collapsed.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026
In 1995-2013 uranium from 20,000 Soviet warheads supplied 10% of US power. Today, Russia remains America's #1 supplier of nuclear fuel. For @foreignpolicy.com I explore why a 2024 import ban on Russian uranium is theatre and how Moscow makes the most of its leverage foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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Tom Hancock @tomhancock.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
"When it comes to brain gain vs. brain drain, the United States saw a net gain of +2,145 (AI) researchers in 2025 while China registered a net loss of -1,729 researchers" carnegieendowment.org/china/featur...
carnegieendowment.org
Who’s Ahead in the Global AI Talent Race?
The United States and China are extending their lead in producing and attracting top AI talent. At the same time, Asia ex-China is rising while Europe falters.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026
Democrats appear on track for huge victory in US midterms • The Economist's modelling gives Democrats 93% chance of flipping the House of Representatives • Rise in petrol prices is key driver of Democrats’ move into landslide territory www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026
In 1995-2013 uranium from 20,000 Soviet nuclear weapons supplied 10% of US electricity. Despite a 2024 import ban, Russia remains America's top supplier of nuclear fuel - for @foreignpolicy.com I explore how the ban is theatre and where Moscow's leverage really lies foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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Chris Cook @chriscook.news · 21/09/2026
A big new story from us: a big new leak means that we can put numbers on the scale of A7 -- the Kremlin's huge money-laundering machine. $6.9bn laundered through the international banking system via SWIFT, with $1.1bn sent to StanChart alone. www.ft.com/content/3848...
ft.com
Kremlin-backed forgery scheme moved $6.9bn through global banks
FT finds thousands of Russian payments handled by Standard Chartered, Citigroup and other international groups in vast leak from inside fintech A7
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Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 22/09/2026
More than a decade after Megatons to Megawatts came to an end, U.S. nuclear power plants still run on Russian uranium, writes columnist @agathedemarais.com. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
10/10, no notes
politico.eu
Lukashenko says Belarus doesn’t have enough potash for Trump
“Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes,” said the Belarusian president.
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Matt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is fascinating and somewhat infuriating. It does make the interesting point that the only serious global players in uranium enrichment besides Russia and China are two European firms: Urenco (British-Dutch-German) and Orano (French).
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Andy Greenberg @agreenberg.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Using AI in many cases means sending your most sensitive and intimate thoughts to a server where they can be exploited as training data, sold to ad brokers, or even handed to law enforcement. So I assembled this guide to using AI with your privacy intact. www.wired.com/story/how-to...
wired.com
How to Use AI With Your Privacy Intact
Your conversations with AI chatbots are both highly personal and deeply vulnerable to surveillance. Here’s how you can protect yourself.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026
In 1995-2013 uranium from 20,000 Soviet warheads supplied 10% of US power. Today, Russia remains America's #1 supplier of nuclear fuel. For @foreignpolicy.com I explore why a 2024 import ban on Russian uranium is theatre and how Moscow makes the most of its leverage foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026
In 1995-2013 uranium from 20,000 Soviet nuclear weapons supplied 10% of US electricity. Despite a 2024 import ban, Russia remains America's top supplier of nuclear fuel - for @foreignpolicy.com I explore how the ban is theatre and where Moscow's leverage really lies foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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Rob Francis @robfranciseu.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Another FTA with another Asian economy achieved - well, nearly. The commission said today that "substantial agreement" had been reached with the Philippines, with just the details to be ironed out. Conclusion in next few months. All the details below borderlex.net/2026/09/22/e...
borderlex.net
EU, Philippines reach “substantial” deal on free trade pact - Borderlex - European trade policy
The European Union and the Philippines reached a "substantial agreement" on a free trade agreement, with both sides pledging to conclude the deal in the coming months.
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Henry Foy @henryjfoy.ft.com · 22/09/2026
The most important story you will read today: Why the unwinding of the world's most important carry trade could spark the next financial crisis - and why Trump cares so much about the yen right now... by the brilliant @urbandirt.bsky.social & @davidkeo.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/0793237a-e...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026
So far AI could be a net job creator, but impact is uneven across sectors • In America roughly 1% of jobs—or around 1m positions—are now directly related to AI rollout • Most job creations are linked to software or maths; meanwhile, administrative-support sector could shed 752,000 jobs in US by 2035
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Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 27/07/2026
Moscow will not run out of cash anytime soon, but it is certainly running out of politically affordable ways to raise it, writes columnist @agathedemarais.com.
foreignpolicy.com
The Kremlin’s Easy Money Is Gone
Russia still has assets to tap for its war, but the political costs are growing.
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
I realise your minds are elsewhere but this is a good FT editorial on the US administration’s destructive approach to science and research on.ft.com/3DYLOoa
on.ft.com
A dark hour for American science
Other countries have a chance to attract US talent driven out by Trump’s policies
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 27/07/2026
Pondering whether Russia's economy will collapse is in fashion, but it may be the wrong question - for @foreignpolicy.com I weigh another one: how many pots of politically affordable money does the Kremlin have left to finance war & social stability (hint: not many) foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/27/r...
foreignpolicy.com
The Kremlin’s Easy Money Is Gone
Russia still has assets to tap for its war, but the political costs are growing.
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Alexandra Sharp @alexandrassharp.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
From strategic fortresses to economic powerhouses, here are the nine most consequential islands in Iran’s arsenal—and what a U.S. military campaign could conceivably achieve. An @foreignpolicy.com explainer! foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/27/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Iran’s Arsenal Starts With Its Islands
From strategic fortresses to economic powerhouses, Iran’s islands may be the key to any full-scale invasion. Here’s a guide to Tehran’s nine most consequential territories.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 27/07/2026
Pondering whether Russia's economy will collapse is in fashion, but it may be the wrong question - for @foreignpolicy.com I weigh another one: how many pots of politically affordable money does the Kremlin have left to finance war & social stability (hint: not many) foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/27/r...
foreignpolicy.com
The Kremlin’s Easy Money Is Gone
Russia still has assets to tap for its war, but the political costs are growing.
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
"On average, participants went from having moderate asthma symptoms to having mild symptoms. Emergency room visits & hospitalizations for asthma fell by 70%. Missed days of work or school because of asthma dropped by about 80%. At the same time, indoor levels of nitrogen dioxide decreased by 70%" ⚕️
theconversation.com
Replacing gas stoves with electric stoves greatly reduces asthma symptoms
People with poorly controlled asthma may be able to breathe easier by making a change in the kitchen.
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