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Sander Tordoir

@sandertordoir.bsky.social
15K followers 930 following 3.3K posts

Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.

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Reposted by Sander Tordoir
Bernd Lange MdEP @bernd-lange.bsky.social · 1h
1/3 🇨🇳🇪🇺 The results of the talks with China as part of the Trade and Investment Consultations show progress: A start that can give us all hope – above all, hope for more. At the same time, proof that dialogue is exactly the right approach.👇 shorturl.at/uHakd
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
In a world where China is growing off the back of net exports, this is a powerful deterrent. So France and Germany are right to buttress the flurry of forthcoming trade measures with a second strike option in case China retaliates outside the rules.
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Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
🇫🇷🇩🇪present united front on how to empower 🇪🇺to better deal with Chinese trade practices threatening Europe's industrial base.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The piece is auf Deutsch, and builds on my remarks for Germanys state visit to the Netherlands. So it focuses on what Germany and the Netherlands, as two of the most integrated economies in the world (boasting terrifying fiscal firepower between the two of em) can do to build economic sovereignty.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Three geo-economic philosophies are emerging. The US is a coercive superpower. China is aiming for autarky, with one-sided integration only. In a new piece, I make the case for Europe’s emerging response: networked economic sovereignty. 1/ www.dnhk.org/de/news/2026...
dnhk.org
Vernetzte Souveränität: Europas Antwort auf China und die USA | DNHK
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
China isn’t going to easily agree to curb its export glut. Franco-German backing for an ambitious response gives Commissioner Sefcovic some much needed leverage in his negotiations with China, ahead of the October deadline. 1/
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
France and Germany are not sitting idly in the face of China shock 2.0. There’s space for rules-compliant measures: a flurry of CVDs, including on hybrids and safeguards. But Paris and Berlin are, rightly, thinking of deterrence in case Beijing retaliates outside of the rules.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Great Pignal column on the populists strange love affair with China. Centrist parties CDU/CSU, Greens SPD are mounting the defence of Germanys industry and workers from the China shock. The far-right AfD, meanwhile, barely utters a word of Beijing criticism. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
economist.com
Why Europe’s populists don’t criticise China
An ideal target gets a free pass from the demagogues
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Europe is putting safeguards on grain-oriented electrical steel. It comes with trade offs, especially higher costs short run. But a sensible move to secure a European supply chain of all kinds of kit for electrification. policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/commiss...
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu
Commission imposes provisional safeguard measures on imports of grain-oriented electrical steel
Today, the European Commission imposed provisional safeguard measures on imports of grain-oriented electrical steel products, in the form of tariff-rate quotas coupled with price thresholds.
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Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, who noted that many EU countries might seek to “roll out some fiscal cushions” for citizens and firms if energy prices remain elevated this winter. buff.ly/7lYXXS2
euractiv.com
Bond market fears thwart EU energy crisis plan | Euractiv
Surge in borrowing costs means Italy and Greece are the only EU countries that have applied for the fiscal exemption
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Some reflections in today's New York Times on the lurking risk to the EU economy from low gas storages. EU governments are betting on a Hormuzian chance to purchase gas at lower prices, and if not, to outbid others. A risky bet. It'll probably be fine. Probably.
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James Green @james-r-green.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Europe has taken steps in each area, but greater ambition is needed. It must complete the circle – from founding, to scaling, to listing and back to funding the companies that come next. Read the full policy brief here: buff.ly/xf5WcB6 8/8
buff.ly
How to revive Europe's stock market listings
Europe should strengthen its public equity markets to finance innovation
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Claudia-Dominique Geiser @cdgeiser.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We talk a lot about Europe’s scale-up problem and its financing gap, but less about what comes next – the exit for founders and investors. Our new policy brief looks at Europe’s IPO market and why it matters for financing innovation. 🧵 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu... 1/
bst-europe.eu
How to Revive Europe’s Stock Market Listings
Europe’s ability to scale innovation depends on its access to risk capital. Closing Europe’s innovation gap with the US and China will be vital to Europe’s competitiveness. Innovative companies in Eur...
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
SpaceX, SK Hynix, Anthropic/OpenAI - the US boasts a slew of blockbuster listings. Can Europe make more of its own IPOs? An important new paper from CER and Co dives right in, with some surprising findings (it’s the „quality of IPOs not quantity stupid“ being one). Recommended read.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
That's right. German politics should dial down how seriously they take the CEO's lobbying, who have a deplorable track record of short-termism and geopolitical naivite - and make policy based on evidence and what is good for the country.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Good rebuttal to Rey, Gourinchas and Gopinath in the Economist. Like many of us in Europe, Indian economists Nageswaran and Srinivas argue the undervalued yuan is not merely a reflection of domestic policy choices. Nor that China should get to adjust in its own good time. 1/
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Here is a basic smell test. If the Netherlands and Denmark - Germany’s neighbours - can keep pace with US growth, are EU regulations really to blame for Germany’s stagnation? The red tape Berlin needs to cut, and the deregulation it needs to pursue, are primarily at home—not in Brussels. 1/
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Word is spreading that pockets of the European economy are blossoming. Croatia, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Greece are also growing at a brisk pace. Those countries are in the EU single market - casting doubt on a German narrative that EU regulation is to blame for its woes.
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CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program @erep.csis.org · 04/08/2026
China's export surge is quietly hollowing out Germany's auto and machinery sectors — is Europe prepared to fight back? @maxbergmann.bsky.social sat down with @sandertordoir.bsky.social to discuss what "China Shock 2.0" really means in Europe and what's next. 🎧 www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...
csis.org
Germany's China Problem: What Can Europe Do About It? | The Eurofile | CSIS Podcasts
Max sits down with Sander Tordoir, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform. They dig into whether Brussels has the tools and political will to push back on Beijing, and how one October deadl...
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Good conversation with Paul Ronzheimer on Germany and China shock 2.0. Germany escaped the original China shock. This one goes straight to the heart of its manufacturing core. No surprise it's attracting international attention. Good to see Germany finally having this debate.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
China flutet die Weltmärkte mit Autos, Maschinen, Chemieprodukten. Deutschland verliert monatlich 10.000 Industriearbeitsplätze. Deutschland im Epizentrum von China-Schock 2.0. Was kann die Bundesregierung tun? Darüber spreche ich mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social ronzheimer.podigee.io/779-die-gros...
ronzheimer.podigee.io
Die größte Gefahr für unseren Wohlstand. Mit Sander Tordoir
Ökonom Sander Tordoir warnt vor einem „China-Schock 2.0“: Chinas massive Subventionen, Überkapazitäten und Exportoffensive setzen zentrale deutsche Branchen wie Autoindustrie, Maschinenbau und Chemie ...
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Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
According to a recent analysis, China enjoys a surplus in its manufactured goods trade with the European Union that is roughly equivalent to Italy’s national income. That trade disparity, it is estimated, continues to grow by about 30% each year. buff.ly/T6RzVsE
theguardian.com
The Guardian view on Volkswagen’s crisis: another wake-up call for Germany and the EU | Editorial
Editorial: Robust action is needed to protect European industries from unfair competition. The alternative is social strife amid growing insecurity
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Joris Teer @joristeer.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
1/7 Great to see our "EU Semiconductor Geopolitical Risk Survey: Outlook for 2026-2031" covered by @reuters.com, @politico.eu, Rare Earth Exchanges! To make good industrial/trade policies, policymakers must graple with how industry perceives the geopolitical/internal threat landscape...
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Kathy Love @kathylove.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
‘The ability to make independent decisions does not guarantee countries such control. In other words, independence does not guarantee sovereignty.’ Very well worth reading the whole speech: www.bis.org/review/r1902...
bis.org
Mario Draghi: Sovereignty in a globalised world
Speech by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, on the award of Laurea honoris causa in law from Università degli Studi di Bologna, Bologna, 22 February 2019.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
"Europe’s Car Industry Faces Dramatic Crisis, German Lobby Says" But said lobby failed to equip the German EV subsidy with a buy-EU clause - which'd be reciprocal to China. The EU's EV duties also failed to cover hybrids - the results of which are glaring in the chart 1/
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PG Kroeger @pgkroegerbb.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Lessen uit 10 jaar Brexit in #BetrouwbareBronnen. omny.fm/shows/betrou...
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
We Dutchies understood the case for being in the eurozone - being at the monpol decision making table in Frankfurt (with a series of very influential Dutch central bank governors no less!) beat moving interest rates 15 minutes after the BuBa.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Anyway what do I know. The global Britain business, stooled on a very special bond with America, is going really swell for the UK. And the UK economy is clearly booming outside the EU.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Fascinating. The argument for pooling markets/ economic power is regaining effective sovereignty, at the expense of nominal sovereignty The UK never got the distinction. The Baltics understood it like nobody else, making massive sacrifices to be in the EU/Euro www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/poli...
koreatimes.co.kr
70% of Koreans back pursuing EU-style economic community with Japan: survey - The Korea Times
Nearly 70 percent of Koreans support pursuing an EU-style economic community with Japan, while 60 percent of Japanese respondents agreed, according...
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Overigens is er ook een interessante vraag of je het argument “Duitsland moet fors investeren” van Tooze en co (ben ik het met eens uiteraard) kunt scheiden van de China shock. De winsten en waarderingen - en daarmee investeringsruimte - van Europese bedrijven die kampen met China dalen snel. 1/
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
NRC gaat er ook nog op in. Het is de moeite waard het paper echt goed te lezen. Dan dringt zich ook de vraag op waarom de export van de VS, Zuid-Korea en Zwitserland in 2022–2024 zoveel beter draaide dan die van Duitsland. Let op de specifieke jaren.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Germans new EV subsidy is succeeding to rekindle the market whilst helping to support ....China's, not Germany's own, EV production. Germany failed to equip its new EV subsidy scheme with buy-EU/buy-ally clause a few months ago - a stunning own goal. Oops 1/
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Some reflections and thoughts (a bit technical at times) on the Kiel Institute's important and helpful contribution to the debate on Germany and China shock 2.0. If anything, I think it's not as far apart from Brad Setser and my work as some journalists have made it out to be.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Good papers sharpen debates. I think the Kiel paper does exactly that. It raises important questions about Germany's competitiveness—but I also think some of the reporting has stretched its conclusions further than the authors themselves. My reading below.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
One other point folks are missing by focusing solely on 2022-2024. Some of Setser and my argument and France's Haut-commissariat à la Stratégie et au Plan is forward-looking: The trend line on Chinas export glut looks ominous - and the macro drivers behind them remain strong.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Reactions to Kiels paper on China Shock 2.0. It's a thoughtful contribution that rightly argues EU trade defence doesn't solve competition in third markets. But contrary to some commentary, I don't think it shows German concerns about Chinese competition are wholly overblown. In-depth thread. 1/
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Excellent reporting by the WSJ A powerful piece of qualitative evidence chiming with hard data: „Over three-quarters of German mechanical engineering companies see competition from China as the biggest strategic challenge worldwide.“ Difficult to argue it isn’t a big deal for Germany. 1/
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Was bei den Diskussionen hier zum Reformpaket nicht untergehen sollte: Die Bundesregierung stellt sich in der EU-Industriepolitik gerade grundsätzlich neu auf. Neuer Handelsschutz gegen China; EU Präferenz in strategischen Sektoren und Joint Venture Regeln für chinesische Investitionen 1/2
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
The Suddeutsche with the long-read on the China shock 2.0 and Germany. A great read, with nice literary language, and rather beautiful formatting. www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/art...
sueddeutsche.de
Der China-Schock: 10 000 Arbeitsplätze verliert Deutschland jeden Monat.
Und die Politik? Schaut zu. Zu Besuch in deutschen und chinesischen Fabriken. Und bei denen, die sagen: Jetzt geht es um alles.
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Thorsten Benner @tbenner.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
"Der China-Schock ist real. Und er trifft die deutsche Industrie mit voller Wucht". Klartext von Martin Herrrenknecht, @sandertordoir.bsky.social Brad Setser @jankaoertel.bsky.social & Suki, Johannes Volkmann, Anton Hofreiter, Friedolin Strack. 23 Minuten, die sich sehr lohnen.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Germany failed to equip its new EV subsidy scheme with buy-EU/buy-ally clauses. As VW announces a 100.00 layoffs, I doubt Berlin would make the same mistake today — just 4 months later. So it seems like a good moment to re-up Lucas, Nils and my blueprint for a harmonised EU EV industrial policy.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Mooi en diepgaand gesprek met AJ en Rob - zoals altijd met wat humor ook.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Europeans should pay attention to the legal constraints President Trump now faces on throwing tariff threats around. The IEEPA tariffs have legally collapsed, and the US has launched a bunch of poorly argued 301 cases. It'll be hard for Trump to even implement the 15% Turnberry tariff.
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Hugo Reitsma @hugoreitsma.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Een handelsoorlog dreigt tussen Europa en China. @ajboekestijn.bsky.social en @robdewijk.bsky.social praten erover met @sandertordoir.bsky.social, hoofdeconoom bij de denktank Centre for European Reform. Vragen stellen kan hier! www.bnr.nl/podcast/boek...
bnr.nl
Boekestijn en De Wijk
Arend Jan Boekestijn en Rob de Wijk gaan onder leiding van Hugo Reitsma op zoek naar de nieuwe wereldorde. Lid worden of je lidmaatschap beheren kan hier.
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Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Der zweite China-Schock trifft Europa hart. Während Chinas Exportmaschine ungebremst läuft und ganze Industriezweige unter Druck geraten, streitet die EU noch über neue Instrumente. Ökonom @sandertordoir.bsky.social erklärt, warum die Zeit drängt. table.media/china/interv...
table.media
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Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Eine neue Studie der Ökonomen @sandertordoir.bsky.social und Brad Setser prognostiziert Deutschland sogar einen „China-Schock 2.0“, weil man immer noch glaube, nach einigen Strukturreformen wieder mithalten zu können. buff.ly/kb3zSu3
faz.net
Mercedes Spannagels Roman „Crashtest Dummies“
Wilde Lust an der Demütigung: In Mercedes Spannagels bösem Arbeitsplatzdrama „Crashtest Dummies“ krachen männliche und weibliche Autoerotik aufeinander.
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Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, a pro-EU think-tank, said “You don’t want to get married to someone who you don’t know is committed to the relationship.” www.ft.com/content/ac01...
buff.ly
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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 23/06/2026
1/ It’s 10 years since the British voted to leave the EU. The big reason we remainers lost is that we didn’t convince people that being in the EU was actually a good idea.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Spanish PM Sanchez has clearly decided Europe needs to accomodate Chinese power. Goldman's modelling, does, however suggests Spain's economy is also being slowed down by China shock 2.0. Overall strong Spanish growth obscuring that pain, and clouding the PMs judgement.
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