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Patrick Greenfield

@pgreenfielduk.bsky.social
2.8K followers 137 following 25 posts

Reporter @guardian covering biodiversity and the environment. patrick.greenfield@guardian.co.uk | Former @CNN

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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Really sad to read this. RIP Joe - a great mind
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Leo Murray @crisortunity.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
It is the curse of the environmental campaigner to be continually proven right in retrospect - occasionally, as with the ULEZ, through success, but far, far more often through failure
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London & Southeast🔅 @thesnowdreamer.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Cooler than average days this summer have just completely died out, even in our hottest summers we do get odd day here and there interspersed. We are coming up 2 months since last daily max temperature was 1C below average in London on already warmer baseline. Freakishly warm period.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 02/08/2026
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
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London & Southeast🔅 @thesnowdreamer.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Today experienced the 24th day of year hitting 30C in London. For perspective in whole of 1980s we had 21 days.
static.klipy.com
The Office: Woman Holding 'HOT' Sign
ALT: The Office: Woman Holding 'HOT' Sign
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
This isn't true. Climate is mentioned twice and is a the main thread of the story. Not sure who this kind of performative nonsense serves when it's so obviously ridiculous.
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Leo Hickman @leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 27/07/2026
++BREAKING++ The Daily Telegraph has... *rubs eyes* ...published something sensible about climate change: "I’m coming to the view that the Online Right is going wrong, eschewing compassion or charm, talking itself into corners of angry irrelevance. Take climate change."
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Or much of a drop in public support. Fascinating example of elite consensus switching despite popular opinion.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/07/2026
With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....
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Sara Sneath @sarasneath.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Good news! I'm joining the Guardian US climate team next month. I'm excited to have a home among such badass journalists and at the only major news publication that doesn't take fossil fuel advertising. Send me tips.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 08/06/2026
I have resigned from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol's Independent Standards Board. The Protocol is openly violating its own rules and has effectively delegated forest carbon accounting standards to a secret, industry-led working group. ghgpolicy.org/s/2026-06-08...
Text too long; see machine-readable PDF at this link: 

https://ghgpolicy.org/s/2026-06-08-Cullenward-resignation.pdfText too long; see machine-readable PDF at this link: 

https://ghgpolicy.org/s/2026-06-08-Cullenward-resignation.pdfText too long; see machine-readable PDF at this link: 

https://ghgpolicy.org/s/2026-06-08-Cullenward-resignation.pdf
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Our paper is not just for those who care about the integrity of REDD+ credits. It is for anyone interested in robust impact evaluation in conservation. We encourage everyone to test for the influence of hidden confounders (the newish R package Sensmakr really helps). www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Causal inference should quantify the sensitivity of results to hidden confounders (variables affecting both the location of projects and outcomes). The importance of this is illustrated using analysis...
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
It is awkward to be publishing another negative paper on REDD+ credits. Many of the projects that issued too many credits slowed deforestation, & I also believe there is a role for the carbon market in funding forest conservation. But sunlight is the best disinfectant. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Scandal in the voluntary carbon market must not impede tropical forest conservation - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Recent media coverage gives the impression that the very idea of tackling climate change by slowing tropical deforestation is a scam — this is not true and the idea could harm forests.
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
While hidden confounders could explain some of the observed differences, we suggest they would need to be unrealistically large. An excellent News and Views piece by Erin Sills and Sunhrendu Pattanayak explores this in more detail. @natecoevo.nature.com www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A stress test for unobserved confounders - Nature Ecology & Evolution
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus sustainable management of forests and the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) project...
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
This reminded us of the Fisher/Cornfield arguement. We decided to explore how big a hidden confounder would have to be to explain the discrepancy between what the projects claimed, and how much deforestation independent analysis suggested was delivered? www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Causal inference should quantify the sensitivity of results to hidden confounders (variables affecting both the location of projects and outcomes). The importance of this is illustrated using analysis...
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Some in the industry have rejected these findings, saying such studies fail to account for local drivers of deforestation. If these local drivers also influence where projects are placed in the landscape, they are indeed hidden confounders. arxiv.org/abs/2312.06793
arxiv.org
Serious errors impair an assessment of forest carbon projects: A rebuttal of West et al. (2023)
Independent retrospective analyses of the effectiveness of reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) projects are vital to ensure climate change benefits are being delivered. A recent study...
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
(note, the Nats Coms paper essentially confirms the finding of a expose by @theguardian.com @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social back in 2023, which claimed 90% of rainforest carbon offsets were 'worthless'.) www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Revealed: more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest certifier are worthless, analysis shows
Investigation into Verra carbon standard finds most are ‘phantom credits’ and may worsen global heating
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
I’ve become rather embroiled in the debate surrounding over-crediting in the voluntary carbon market. As our recent paper in @natcomms.nature.com shows, 1st generation REDD+ projects sold more credits than justified (10 times too many!). www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Learning lessons from over-crediting to ensure additionality in forest carbon credits - Nature Communications
REDD+ projects reduced deforestation, but less than claimed. Synthesising 44 projects, this study finds about 11 times over-crediting due to selection bias in control areas and modelling approaches an...
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
An American statistician, Cornfield, pointed out that for a confounder to be responsible, the association between the confounder & smoking, and the confounder & cancer, must be as strong as the association between smoking & cancer. No candidate could be identified. academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
academic.oup.com
Smoking and lung cancer: recent evidence and a discussion of some questions*
Abstract. Summary This report reviews some of the more recent epidemiologic and experimental findings on the relationship of tobacco smoking to lung cancer
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
By the late 1950s, it was well known that smokers were 9 times more likely to get cancer than non-smokers. However, the idea that smoking caused cancer was rejected by many, including the famous statistician RA Fisher* who argued that a hidden confounder was to blame. *had some tobacco funding
1950s smoking advert
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Julia PG Jones @juliajones.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Why is the old debate about whether smoking causes cancer relevant to settling the controversy surrounding over-crediting in forest carbon offsets? Read our paper in natureecoevo.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Forest frontier landscape1950s smoking advert
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Eva Xiao @fteva.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Bright orange rivers are appearing in pristine Alaskan wilderness and across the Arctic as climate change intensifies and permafrost thaws. @janatausch.bsky.social and I investigate the spread of rust-orange water, from northwestern Canada to Svalbard, Norway. Read here: as.ft.com/r/009f223e-e...
as.ft.com
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Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
well, well, well... "Accident halts oil drilling at the mouth of the Amazon River" www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/mac...
cnnbrasil.com.br
Acidente paralisa perfuração na Foz do Amazonas | CNN Brasil
Vazamento de fluído de perfuração vai paralisar atividades no poço por um período entre 10 e 15 dias
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Nature boys and girls – here’s your chance to get published in the Guardian - Our wildlife series Young Country Diary is looking for articles written by children (8-14, in the UK), about their winter encounters with nature 👇 www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Nature boys and girls – here’s your chance to get published in the Guardian
Our wildlife series Young Country Diary is looking for articles written by children, about their winter encounters with nature
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Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Looking back to @wwattribution.bsky.social studies in 2025 showed again, in stark terms, how unfairly the consequences of human-induced climate change are distributed. The world does not have to be like this, we have a lot of agency to make it better. www.worldweatherattribution.org/unequal-evid...
a world map with locations of extreme weather event studies by WWA in pink & yellow dots
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The New Yorker @newyorker.com · 28/12/2025
The tech industry overpromised and underdelivered on general-purpose A.I. www.newyorker.com/culture/2025...
newyorker.com
Why A.I. Didn’t Transform Our Lives in 2025
This was supposed to be the year when autonomous agents took over everyday tasks. The tech industry overpromised and underdelivered.
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London & Southeast🔅 @thesnowdreamer.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
A notably “warm” start to meteorological winter across Europe only far north of Norway, Finland and Sweden have escaped. The first half has been perhaps been the warmest on record this December though is not expected to exceed 2015... (1/2)
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James Dyke @jamesgdyke.info · 22/11/2025
"Warming is going to exceed 1.5°C. We are heading into “overshoot” within the next few years. The world is going to become more turbulent and more dangerous. So, what comes after failure?" Some thoughts from Johan Rockstrom & me 10 years after Paris Agreement. theconversation.com/the-world-lo...
theconversation.com
The world lost the climate gamble. Now it faces a dangerous new reality
The world bet on collective but voluntary action to keep global warming at a safe level.
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Luke Barratt @lukewbarratt.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Good piece by @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social on the current state of the carbon markets. Almost 3 years on from our investigation, the market is reforming, but has the Trump White House killed corporate interest in protecting forests? www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
‘There is no money’: As carbon markets collapse, what happens to the forests they promised to protect?
After it was found most offsets did not represent real carbon reductions, the money dried up. But successful schemes such as Kasigau in Kenya now face a stark future
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Daisy Dunne @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org · 22/10/2025
NEW: Just 28% of nations have released plans for reversing nature loss a year after UN deadline 🐝8/17 megadiverse yet to produce their plans, called "NBSAPs" 🪲Includes Brazil, most biodiverse nation and COP30 host 🐜All G7 nations now have a plan, except for US www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-jus...
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
O Brasil seria um dos primeiros a reclamar se outro país estivesse fazendo isso...
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Shannon Osaka @shannonosaka.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
A study predicted economic damages from climate change 3x higher than previous assessments. But it was flawed -- all thanks to the data from just one country. I dug into this strange study and the researchers calling it out: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
washingtonpost.com
A study predicted huge climate damages. But it had a fatal flaw: Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan’s erroneous data dramatically changed the results of a study on global climate damages.
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Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 29/06/2025
I’m glad this extraordinary tale by @kenzabryan.ft.com is finally out. The carbon credit business is a LOT more interesting than I thought… on.ft.com/4lqMZMV
on.ft.com
The extraordinary life and mysterious death of a carbon credits broker
How an Italian fugitive used diplomatic immunity to work with Dubai royalty and Liberia’s fallen hero
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
I’ll says this once: We’re spending a lot more on mitigation (e.g., renewables) than on CDR research. A lot more. It could simultaneously be true that CDR research acts as mitigation deterrence and we need to do CDR research. Trees will not be enough to reduce atmospheric CO₂.
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
I categorically disagree with claims that CO₂ removal (CDR) is a scam. The field is full of smart people dedicated to figuring out what, if anything, works, because we’ll need CDR in the future for legacy and residual emissions. Funding via market mechanisms isn’t ideal, but doesn’t make it a scam.
A conference in a modern venue, with attendees seated at round tables. A presenter stands at a podium in front of large screens displaying slides.
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Fires drove record loss of world’s forests last year, ‘frightening’ data shows Burning, worsened by the #climatecrisis, overtook farming and logging as biggest cause of destruction of tropical forests Story by @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Fires drove record loss of world’s forests last year, ‘frightening’ data shows
Burning, worsened by global heating, overtook farming and logging as biggest cause of destruction of tropical forests
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Stanislav Aseyev @stanislavaseyev.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Russia has returned the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna. Her body showed clear signs of torture: broken ribs, bruises, injuries from electric shocks. Some of her internal organs, including her eyeballs, brain and trachea, had been removed. Viktoria was 27 years old.
washingtonpost.com
She tried to expose Russia’s brutal detention system — and ended up dead
A consortium of international journalists continued the work of Viktoriia Roshchyna, who was investigating reports of torture and detention of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine.
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
I've put together a webpage with country-level charts that @glenpeters.bsky.social and I produce. Currently 89 countries, not all with same charts. More to come, including data downloads. Explore for yourself here: robbieandrew.github.io/country/
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Covering Climate Now @coveringclimatenow.org · 27/03/2025
"A proposal for such a levy, which has the support of scores of developing countries, the EU and the UK, is under discussion at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London, in talks that started last month and resume next week before finishing on 11 April.”
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
This is an important piece By @ben-spencer.bsky.social www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...
thetimes.com
We’ve failed to stop climate change — this is what we need to do next
While we can still limit warming by cutting emissions, we now face having to adapt to more extreme weather
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Fearing toxic waste, Greenland ended uranium mining. Now, they could be forced to restart - or pay $11bn My reporting from Narsaq - with Phoebe Weston 👇 www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Fearing toxic waste, Greenland ended uranium mining. Now, they could be forced to restart - or pay $11bn
The island is being sued by a mining company over its decision, and faces paying nine times its annual budget in damages if it loses
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Governments reached a deal at #Cop16 in Rome last night. But it is clear that this decade's biodiversity agreement is already on life support. Phoebe Weston reports from the Italian capital www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Cop16 nature summit agrees deal at 11th hour but critics say it is not enough
UN biodiversity conference in Rome ends with fragile accord but questions remain over whether funding will emerge
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Daisy Dunne @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org · 27/02/2025
Nations have finalised a document for planning, monitoring, reporting, and review (PMRR) in plenary at #COP16 There was just one outstanding issue – in classic COP fashion – with a footnote, which has been resolved Formal adoption of documents won't happen until later tonight, final plenary at 9pm
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Daisy Dunne @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org · 24/02/2025
Under 3 years ago, countries set a big global pledge to protect 30% of Earth for nature by 2030 But our new investigation shows more than half of nations aren't willing to back 30 by 30 within their borders We found this out by digging through 100s of UN docs www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-mor...
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Crucial UN nature talks are about to reopen in Rome – but will enough countries turn up? Phoebe Weston previews #Cop16 in Rome www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Crucial UN nature talks are about to reopen in Rome – but will enough countries turn up?
After last year’s Cop16 biodiversity talks in Cali left key issues unresolved, the extra summit will attempt to seek consensus, especially over funding
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Get submitting
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Covering Climate Now @coveringclimatenow.org · 13/02/2025
🥁 It's that time of year again... We know you've all been waiting for it... Submissions are OPEN for the 2025 Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards! 🎉
coveringclimatenow.org
The Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards — Covering Climate Now
Entry submissions are OPEN for the 2025 Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards. This is the fifth year for our annual awards program, and every year we’re amazed by the quality and variety of work ent...
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
In late 2022, the world agreed to protect 30% of the planet for nature. Now, more than half the world’s countries have no plans to deliver on the target, according to analysis by Carbon Brief & The Guardian. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
More than half of countries are ignoring biodiversity pledges – analysis
Many of the nations gathering in Rome for Cop16 have offered no plans to honour their agreement to protect 30% of land and sea for nature
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Patrick Greenfield @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
If you are a researcher who has been affected by this kind of thing, get in contact: patrick.greenfield@theguardian.com .
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Tess McClure @tessairini.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
as we finish up 2024, here are a few favourite pieces published by the age of extinction (nature @ the guardian). I take freelance pitches too, so will add some notes on pitching to this thread & hope it's a generally a useful rundown of work we do and how we approach it. in no specific order:
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