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Danny Cullenward

@ghgpolicy.org
14K followers 1.7K following 1.8K posts

Forensic climate economist and lawyer • The carbon accounting canary in your climate policy coal mine • ghgpolicy.org

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Reposted by Danny Cullenward
Right To Zero @righttozero.bsky.social · 4h
BREAKING: @governor.ca.gov just signed the Home Energy Choice Act, a bill that will give Californians the freedom and funds to install electric appliances with money that would otherwise have been used to replace old gas lines earthjustice.org/press/2026/c...
earthjustice.org
California Passes the Home Energy Choice Act
AB 2313 gives Californians the option to install non-polluting appliances with the help of funds that would otherwise have been used to replace the old gas line to their home
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 5h
Can anyone explain to me why a national permitting deal is best negotiated now, mere weeks from an election that is likely to reshape federal power? Let’s stipulate that a deal of some kind is necessary and good; my question is what about the situation makes now more desirable than, say, Q1 2027?
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 29/09/2026
I think this has a lot of explanatory power, at least with respect to WRI. (WBCSD isn't hiding its industry-aligned advocacy.) But there's more to it. Some people genuinely believe that theoretical accounting principles require outcomes that make no physical, scientific, or policy sense.
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Jessica Green @greenprofgreen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Big ups to @katearonoff.bsky.social for covering this seemingly boring but actually really important story about the GHG Protocol. Standards are technical & opaque AND they’re where the politics happen. This is a classic case of “managing tons.” 🧵
newrepublic.com
Did the Forestry Industry Just Get to Write Its Own Emissions Rules?
Accusations of industry capture, allegedly secret working groups, and the resignations of two researchers—a scandal is rocking the world of carbon emissions accounting.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 29/09/2026
The tech community does this with non-profit corporate structures, too. One can effect the same approach to voting powers for board seats with or without corporate shares, e.g. so a founder unilaterally controls a majority of a non-profit’s board seats + can hire or fire without cause.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 25/09/2026
Super great having your kids' voice recordings sent to a private company to farm data, thanks to the gross negligence of the leadership of the San Francisco Unified School District. Can't say enough good things about the teachers and schools. I sure wish the district wasn't incompetent.
sfstandard.com
Why kids, parents, and teachers are so frustrated by SFUSD’s AI reading tutor
Kids say Amira can’t understand them. Teachers say the district is pushing it anyway. And the company has yet to prove it works.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 24/09/2026
Want to learn more about the industry proposal to give companies carbon credit for cutting down trees, or why it's being taken seriously as a standard for corporate reporting — despite its scientific flaws? Hear from the scientists themselves at a recent @kleinmanenergy.bsky.social webinar ⤵️
youtube.com
Forest Carbon Accounting in the Greenhouse Gas Protocol
YouTube video by Kleinman Energy
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Energy vs Climate Podcast @energyvsclimate.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
“We're very used to stories wrapping up. We're in the mid-transition, we'll get to the end of it eventually. You might not.” Emily Grubert on the real risk of a slow energy transition: it might just never finish. #EnergyTransition #ClimatePolicy #Decarbonization
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Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
It is with tremendous sadness and sense of loss that we regretfully share the news that @penncssm.bsky.social senior research fellow, and my close personal friend Joseph Romm has passed away unexpectedly. He will be sorely missed here. web.sas.upenn.edu/pcssm/news/r...
web.sas.upenn.edu
Remembering Dr. Joe Romm
It is with great sadness that the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media shares news of the passing of PCSSM Senior Research Fellow Dr. Joe Romm. Please find below an obituary prepared ...
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 17/09/2026
The inimitable @mikegrunwald.bsky.social has an exceptionally well written oped on the disastrous proposal from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol to give companies carbon credit for cutting down trees.
nytimes.com
Opinion | The Latest Corporate Climate Ruse (Gift Article)
Making deforestation look climate-friendly will encourage a lot more deforestation.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 12/09/2026
It is such a good print! It hangs on my wall!
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 09/09/2026
This is a great story from @katearonoff.bsky.social on the new UNEP emissions gap report and a recent ERL paper from @arvindpawan1.bsky.social and @hdaigle.bsky.social
newrepublic.com
Carbon Capture Won’t Save Us Anytime Soon
A new U.N. climate report says ​that massive amounts of carbon capture and storage can keep a long-shot climate goal within reach. ​But nobody should be counting on it.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 03/09/2026
Oh great, I went to check how long I have to migrate my family to a new service and @1password.bsky.social automatically invoiced me for another year — without confirmation or instruction — and charged my credit card. Nice work, great company, I'm sure you can trust their security practices too.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 03/09/2026
I got the same, lazy excuse. Been a paid customer since 2020, brought my extended family on a joint plan and convinced other friends to subscribe, but I'm done with @1password.bsky.social now. I'm not sending another dollar to this company.
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Reposted by Danny Cullenward
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 02/09/2026
This is really top-notch work. Accessible, timely, and sobering.
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
This is extremely damning and if the relevant decision makers in the Democratic Party had an ounce of foresight they would recognize that incubating these kinds of scams is only going to undermine attempts to rebuild a functioning mass party in the future.
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Rebecca Solnit @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I had to say thank you.
meditationsinanemergency.com
In Praise of Dolly Parton, 1946-2026, Our Goddess of Kindness
We will always love her, and there will never be another like her, this artist who came out of deep rural poverty in the 1960s to become not just a staggeringly great performer and songwriter but phil...
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Dr. Katharine Dickson @metaomicsnerd.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I built an open-source stochastic model auditing the gap between two of California's dairy count registries. Result: Potentially 8-9 figures of unpriced methane emissions financial exposure from measurement uncertainty alone via two state datasets that just don’t agree. github.com/kdickson8202...
github.com
GitHub - kdickson82023/MindTheGap: Quantifying the spatial and economic uncertainty of interagency data discrepancies in California dairy methane inventories using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation...
Quantifying the spatial and economic uncertainty of interagency data discrepancies in California dairy methane inventories using probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations. - kdickson82023/MindTheGap
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Josh Lappen @jlappen1.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Thinking as I often do about how deeply stupid - and self-reinforcingly so - it is to have a dozen big climate funders paying for identical white papers on the topic de jour, and nobody scooping up all the fantastic climate journalists who have been laid off over the past 12 months.
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 21/08/2026
Just a quick note of appreciation from me for all the good work E&E News did, especially through Climatewire.
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
“I was asked not to mention the Times at all. I’m choosing not to honor that norm, b/c silence abt how accountability journalism gets suppressed is itself a form of suppression.” Read the back story of how @nytimes.com and @thebulwark.com killed @adambonica.bsky.social’s piece. What a mf badass.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Plenty to reflect about re: the Arday affair, but I'm going to repeat this one thing. The playbook the right used here is effective even though it's not especially sophisticated, as it relies on the audience to do the dirty work. I've been calling it "Trojan horse propaganda", let's go with that. 1/
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 13/08/2026
internet friends, I seem to remember some recent research or reporting finding that plug-in hyrbid cars don't end up driving much in electric mode — but can't recall what I read anyone have any pointers?
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Dr. Lisa Corrigan @drlisacorrigan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Don makes an important point here about the dismantling of the administrative state. The institutional damage is to: 1.) destruction of *expertise,* honed by credentialing, research, experience, and *tenure* in job
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Aug update from ECMWF predictive ensemble is genuinely extraordinary from extreme #ElNiño perspective. One implication: it is now indicating not only 70-100% odds of above avg winter precip California-wide, but also 70-100% odds of DJF 26-27 being among the top 20% of wettest CA winters (!).
Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation by tercile status (i.e., most likely well above, well below, or near-average). All of the CA coast is painted the brightest color, indicating 70-100% odds of a winter among the wettest third of all historical winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the bluest color, indicating well below average odds of a winter in the driest 20% of all winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the brightest orange color, indicating well above average odds of a winter in the wettest 20% of all CA winters.
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
So no I'm not surprised by: "the administration’s latest move was developed in partnership with university leaders, primarily the Association of American Universities, which represents dozens of top research institutions including all eight Ivy League colleges." 🎁 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
McMahon Asks US Colleges to Pledge Campus Reforms by End of 2026
Education Secretary Linda McMahon is sending a letter Monday to the leaders of US universities asking them to commit to a slate of campus reforms by the end of 2026 in the Trump administration’s lates...
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 30/07/2026
This is a really nice piece of writing about building an ocean climate model. Congrats!
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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 26/07/2026
The National Academy of Sciences is on Trump’s radar because they are in his way." from Benjamin Santer in a new essay on "Carnage in pursuit of power, revenge, personal financial gain, and ego."
thebulletin.org
American Nero: Why Trump is trying to burn down the National Academy of Sciences
Carnage in pursuit of power, revenge, personal financial gain, and ego.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
In recent weeks, there has been a remarkable surge in large, intense, fast-moving, and unfortunately in many cases destructive/deadly wildfires in multiple Northern Hemisphere regions spanning a wide range of climates & ecologies, but they all share one key commonality. [Thread]
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James Dinneen @jamesdinneen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
It's not quite "gobsmackingly bananas" but monster forecasts for the record El Nino brewing the Pacific Ocean get pretty close. Here's what to make of it in my first for @nature.com: 🧪 www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’
Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Another lightning outbreak now ongoing in PacNW (TS Elida's remants), & this time fuels are considerably drier west of Cascades following recent heat. Numerous additional wildfire ignitions are likely across much of OR/WA over next 48 hr, worsening existing outbreak. #ORwx #WAwx
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Emily Grubert @gruberte.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
In which I yell at my favorite journal and its thoughtful, talented collection of researchers that we really need to take fossil phase-out seriously as a line of inquiry, and that we would not stand for the level of talking around it as a solution in other settings with very obvious problems:
iopscience.iop.org
The state of energy transition research and the need for fossil phase-out: evidence from Environmental Research Letters
The state of energy transition research and the need for fossil phase-out: evidence from Environmental Research Letters, Grubert, Emily
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 15/07/2026
I wonder, if you polled people, how much extra they would pay each year to have their city *not* be covered in thick, choking wildfire smoke for days at a time. I wonder if that might give you more insight into "willingness to pay" vis a vis climate change than asking in the abstract.
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Kleinman Center for Energy Policy @kleinmanenergy.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
BLOG: What happens when the forest behind a carbon offset project burns down? New research shows how carbon credit reversal risk can be assessed using transparent, empirical analysis under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. Read more from Senior Fellow Danny Cullenward (@ghgpolicy.org):
kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu
An Empirical Approach to Quantifying Forest Carbon Risks
Energy policy research from the University of Pennsylvania
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
A major thunderstorm outbreak is unfolding across the interior Pacific NW. While not "dry thunderstorms" (w/briefly heavy showers), numerous wildfire ignitions are still likely due to strikes outside of rain cores, severe pre-existing drought, & heatwave to follow. #ORwx #WAwx
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 13/07/2026
What happens when the forest behind a carbon offset project burns down? Most carbon crediting programs have an insurance program; few use real numbers, so most aren't prepared for actual forest risks. The Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism might change that with a proposed empirical approach.
kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu
An Empirical Approach to Quantifying Forest Carbon Risks
Energy policy research from the University of Pennsylvania
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Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
When even scientists are shocked by extreme weather, the only conclusion to draw: we're in trouble. Must-read story by @eroston.bsky.social 🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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lilastromech (Mischa) @mischajaye.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
The cooling system was installed by the village AC technician, Thermodynamix 😊
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Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
I especially love this diagram.
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Joshua Basseches @joshuabasseches.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Today is the day! My book, Owning The Green Grid, is officially out in the world! *For orders placed today, June 23, only* use the discount code "MITP30" at checkout to receive 30% off. 20% off with the code "READMIT20" anytime after. www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/814358...
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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 23/06/2026
A quick and time-sensitive question for the internet hive mind: What's the best reference for the embodied emissions in solar photovoltaics manufacturing (e.g., gCO2e/kWh)? (I'm looking for numbers, not a debate. I know the emissions are small relative to the value of displacing fossil fuels.)
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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
It seems to have become commonplace to blame net zero for Britain’s high energy bills and/or weak job market… … and I guess I’ll have to explain again why there is very little evidence of this. Britain has plenty of economic problems; net zero is not high on that list (though climate change is) 🧵
giftarticle.ft.com
Ed Miliband would be ‘noose around neck’ of job creation as chancellor, union boss warns
Comments by Sharon Graham come as Burnham team explores key government appointments
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
1/ A common move in energy/climate public writing is: argue that decarbonization has shifted from a shared public sacrifice to a competitive advantage, contend that self-interest will drive the transition. There’s truth here & I learn a lot from these voices — but this framing has important gaps. 🪡
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Climate and Community Institute @cplusc.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Time's running out to apply for our Energy Policy Manager position! Submit your cover letter and resume by Tuesday, June 23 at 11:59pm Eastern Time: climateandcommunity.org/careers/
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Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 20/06/2026
1/ The purpose of green industrial policy has inverted. It used to pay for a public good: clean energy that cost more, benefiting everyone. Now it captures advantages a country keeps for itself. That shift, from a shared cost to a prize seized, is the story of the transition.
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Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
IEA said Iran War created the worst fossil-fuel disruption in history. Price of oil stayed below $150. Why? Biggest reason: China cut its demand by 5 million barrels a day. Some say it's a mystery. But @davidfickling.bsky.social says public data explains it. 🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Mystery of China’s Oil Demand Drop Is No Mystery
It’s the biggest conundrum in the world economy right now: How has China managed to go on an oil detox?
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Kleinman Center for Energy Policy @kleinmanenergy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
BLOG: Promoted as an affordability measure, California's new carbon market regulations won’t reduce gasoline prices—but they will transfer billions of dollars in public investments to private interests. Read more from Danny Cullenward (@ghgpolicy.org):
kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu
A Climate Policy Betrayal in California
Energy policy research from the University of Pennsylvania
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Jessica Green @greenprofgreen.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Makes perfect sense that CDP is literally selling out to a private equity firm. Its continued relevance requires ongoing demand for this voluntary reporting standard. But voluntary disclosure isn’t as important as it once was. But commodifying data to inform investment decisions? That’ll work. 🧵
giftarticle.ft.com
Environmental reporting non-profit group CDP strikes private equity deal
Permira to take majority stake in core operations under energy transition strategy
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Okay, folks: The big El Niño update is now out on Weather West! This sure looks like it's going to be a dramatic year from a global climate perspective, and there are major implications for extreme events (across California, the U.S. West, & well beyond).
weatherwest.com
Special update: Rising odds of a strong-to-historic El Niño event in 2026, with growing likelihood of significant regional-to-global scale impacts - Weather West
June 11, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A quick refresher: What is El Niño and how can it affect global weather patterns? El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a semi-regular recurring cycle that transfers vast amounts of heat and momentum from the tropical Pacific to the global atmosphere. It is triggered every 3–7 years when the #
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