Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 15/10/2025How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 061
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 07/08/2025Wow: "an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict" #BankofEngland www.ft.com/content/236c...ft.comUK interest rates: Bank of England cuts rates to 4% in tight voteMonetary Policy Committee forced into unprecedented second vote after initially failing to reach majority 030
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 29/07/2025Sometime I envy the natural scientists. No economist needed for a research cruise to the arctic. 010
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 27/07/2025Faszinierend: Daten von 630000 Gemälden seit 1400. Mehr dazu in NBER WP 33976. 000
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Er liefert dem MAGA Lager die Munition. Unverantwortlich. www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/m...spiegel.deMohamed El-Erian: Top-Ökonom fordert Rücktritt von US-NotenbankchefUS-Präsident Trump möchte Fed-Chef Jerome Powell absetzen, doch die Wall Street unterstützt den Chefbanker bislang. Mit Mohamed El-Erian verlangt nun ein bekannter Ökonom Powells Rückzug. Er hat wohl ... 000
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2025A normal day in the Oval Office (polymarket.com/event/will-t...) 350
Reposted by Peter TillmannAdam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 15/06/2025Literally the Russian flag in the post. Two of them 1153161345037
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 01/06/2025New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 040
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 01/06/2025Stanley Fischer was incredibly influential www.ft.com/content/0990... 030
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 30/05/2025This is how you destroy a safe haven: "Section 899 of the bill ... would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems to have punitive tax policies." www.ft.com/content/b400...ft.comForeign tax provision in Trump budget bill spooks Wall StreetLegislation would erode the appeal of US financial assets, warn banks and investors 010
Reposted by Peter TillmannSkanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 18/04/2025Absolutely ridiculous and irresponsible from El Erian. If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence 613323
Reposted by Peter TillmannEuropean Space Agency @esa.int · 14/04/2025🦑💫This NASA/ESA Hubble image features the spiral galaxy Messier 77, also known as the Squid Galaxy. It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy! #HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭 181731221
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 13/04/2025Kultur und russische Propaganda: www.zeit.de/kultur/2025-...zeit.deHans-Joachim Frey: Putins KonzertmeisterIm Propagandakrieg mit dem Westen benutzt Russland die Kultur als Waffe. Dabei hilft der deutsche Kulturmanager Hans-Joachim Frey. Die Geschichte einer Indienstnahme 110
Reposted by Peter TillmannOwen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 09/04/2025Here's how that compares to this point in Biden's term and Trump's first term: 0143
Reposted by Peter TillmannIikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 03/04/2025All major currencies appreciating against USD today 1.5-2.5% 022
Reposted by Peter TillmannDani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 03/04/2025This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +ustr.govReciprocal Tariff CalculationsExecutive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe... 1023579
Reposted by Peter TillmannRobin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/04/2025The US announces big tariffs and the Dollar falls on the day. That could mean: (i) markets don't believe any of this after all the back and forth on tariffs; (ii) markets think this hurts the US more than the rest of the world. I think it's (i), which means USD rises a lot if these tariffs stick. 182
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 01/04/2025@timharford.ft.com on GDP www.ft.com/content/8d53...ft.comElon Musk is wrong about GDPThe tech tycoon is not the first to misunderstand what gross domestic product is meant to measure 010
Reposted by Peter TillmannMonika Schnitzer @monika-schnitzer.com · 01/04/2025Gebt 🇺🇸 Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat! Ein Gastbeitrag im SPIEGEL, von Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Ulrike Malmendier, Moritz Schularick, Achim Truger, Georg Weizsäcker, Martin Werding, Cornelia Woll und mir. www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-...spiegel.de(S+) Meinung: Gebt Amerikas Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat in Deutschland!US-Spitzenforscher leiden zunehmend unter den Einschnitten der Trump-Regierung. Deutschland sollte sie mit einem ambitionierten »Meitner-Einstein-Programm« ins Land locken, fordert jetzt eine Gruppe n... 0154
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/03/2025"Many clients were looking to diversify away from the US dollar" www.ft.com/content/f8c7...ft.comWealthy Americans seek refuge from Donald Trump in Swiss banksPrivate bankers and investment managers report large increase in clients wanting to shift assets to Switzerland 020
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/03/2025Check out the @alphaville.ft.com central banking merch: www.redbubble.com/de/people/ft... 020
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 21/03/2025It is very rare to see dissent from a governor. This shows the number of dissenting presidents and governors on the FOMC since 2009. Data: www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo... 030
Reposted by Peter TillmannCatherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 19/03/2025A group of European countries is devising a strategy to poach researchers in the United States in response to American government cuts in education and research. www.politico.eu/article/euro...politico.euEurope looks to poach US researchers as Trump cuts fundingTwelve EU capitals want programs to bring over American scholars. 53729215
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 19/03/2025The Fed talks about first and second derivatives: "the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings". Not easy to understand. #FOMC 011
Reposted by Peter Tillmann🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 19/03/2025The thing about Biden/Harris losing is now autocrats are going to be a lot more bold in their anti-democratic actions knowing the US will not punish them. 57623
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 18/03/2025@bundesbank.de Gibt es eine Möglichkeit, die Artikel aus dem Monatsbericht als .pdf zu sehen, ohne die Formatierung zu zerstören? 000
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 16/03/2025Interesting column featuring our recent paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy" 011
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 14/03/2025Thanks @t0nyyates.bsky.social for citing our paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy" in the Financial Times 061
Reposted by Peter TillmannJeromin Zettelmeyer @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social · 12/03/2025I published a short note on the implications of a proposed constitutional amendment in Germany, which includes an 11% of GDP fund for infrastructure and permission to fund most military spending outside the debt brake’s maximum deficit of 0.35% of GDP (Thread, 1/9): www.bruegel.org/analysis/can...bruegel.orgCan Germany afford to take most defence spending out of its debt brake?Higher German defence spending would be fiscally sustainable, but would require cuts elsewhere and would breach EU fiscal rules 34318
Reposted by Peter TillmannMonika Schnitzer @monika-schnitzer.com · 10/03/2025Unser Beitrag in der @faznet.bsky.social : In den 🇺🇸 werden Wissenschaftlern die Mittel gekürzt. Das ist der richtige Moment, um US-Spitzenforscher nach 🇩🇪 zu holen! @arieldora.bsky.social & @martin-watzinger.com & ich in FAZ Wirtschaft/Der Volkswirt: „Deutschlands Chance“ 45017
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 10/03/2025PhD, Finanzindustrie, Gouverneur von zwei Zentralbanken, jeweils in schweren Krisen, danach Premierminister: Mark Carney erinnert an Mario Draghi. www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...faz.netTrudeau-Nachfolge: Kanadas Liberale setzen auf einen KrisenmanagerMark Carney, neuer Vorsitzender der Liberalen Partei Kanadas, zeigt sich im Zollkonflikt mit Trump unnachgiebig. Noch diese Woche soll er Justin Trudeau als Ministerpräsidenten ablösen. 020
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 09/03/2025Wumms ohne Wachstumswende www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...faz.netPläne von Union und SPD: Wumms ohne WachstumswendeUnion und SPD setzen Deutschlands niedrige Verschuldung aufs Spiel, ohne dauerhaft mehr Wachstum zu ermöglichen. Bei manchen Plänen muss man sich an den Kopf fassen. 000
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 05/03/2025Die 10jährigen deutschen Zinsen haben heute um etwa 20bp auf die gestrigen News reagiert. Zum Vergleich hier die Reaktionen der 10y Zinsen auf die News an EZB-Sitzungstagen seit 1999 (Daten von Altavilla et al, 2019), ebenfalls in bp 040
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 04/03/2025"The most striking aspect to these steps, which amount to a charter for criminals, is that Trump is making little attempt to dress them up. This pig has no lipstick." www.ft.com/content/afe7...ft.comTrump’s heist in broad daylightHaving previously declared bitcoin to be a ‘scam’, the US president now wants to add it to the Fed’s balance sheet 010
Reposted by Peter TillmannFilipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 04/03/2025I don't think there's precedent for this level of open corruption at the federal level, certainly not in the last 100+ years. 16747211530
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 04/03/2025Maurice Obstfeld: Tariffs are not going to solve America’s ills www.ft.com/content/ae84...ft.comTariffs are not going to solve America’s illsPunitive import duties will neither reduce the US trade deficit nor boost employment in manufacturing 033
Reposted by Peter TillmannJournal of Economics and Statistics @jeconstat.bsky.social · 03/03/2025Call for papers for a special issue on "Fiscal Rules and Institutions". Our guest editors are Thiess Büttner (FAU Erlangen Nürnberg) and Friedrich Heinemann (ZEW and University of Heidelberg); deadline for full paper: 31.10.2025. www.uni-giessen.de/de/fbz/fb02/... 011
Reposted by Peter TillmannDonald Tusk @donald-tusk.bsky.social · 28/02/2025Dear Volodymyr Zelenskyy, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone. 435229995727
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 27/02/2025What is the economic effect of spending on the Bundeswehr? In a new note, we analyze the debates in the Bundestag since 1970. An increase in Bundeswehr-related fiscal sentiment causes an expansion of real economic activity. drive.google.com/file/d/1H83v... 060
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025@chrisgiles.ft.com: "If Trump wanted to take control, its constitutional protections are far from secure" www.ft.com/content/28d0...ft.comHow to kill the Fed’s independenceIf Trump wanted to take control, its constitutional protections are far from secure 010
Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025"Deutschlands Sicherheit rechtfertigt höhere Staatsschulden" www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...faz.netBundestagswahl 2025: Deutschlands Sicherheit rechtfertigt höhere StaatsschuldenDer noch amtierende Bundestag sollte mit Zweidrittelmehrheit ein zweites Sondervermögen für militärische Ausrüstung verabschieden. Die Schuldenbremse aber muss bleiben. 000
Reposted by Peter TillmannEuropean Central Bank @ecb.europa.eu · 24/02/2025Today marks the third anniversary of Russia’s unjustified invasion of Ukraine. We continue to stand with the people of Ukraine, who have been suffering through this horrific aggression. 03212