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Peter Tillmann

@peterhtillmann.bsky.social
960 followers 712 following 177 posts

Professor of Economics, Justus Liebig University (JLU) Giessen | monetary policy, macroeconomics, text-as-data applications sites.google.com/view/peter-tillmann

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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
How do inflation expectations respond to a change in the preferences of the central bank? In a new paper, Moritz Grebe and I use a natural experiment: the surprise resignation of Jens Weidmann, the President of the Bundesbank, in 2021. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Great to see our short note in print
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
Wow: "an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict" #BankofEngland www.ft.com/content/236c...
ft.com
UK interest rates: Bank of England cuts rates to 4% in tight vote
Monetary Policy Committee forced into unprecedented second vote after initially failing to reach majority
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Sometime I envy the natural scientists. No economist needed for a research cruise to the arctic.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 27/07/2025
Faszinierend: Daten von 630000 Gemälden seit 1400. Mehr dazu in NBER WP 33976.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Er liefert dem MAGA Lager die Munition. Unverantwortlich. www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/m...
spiegel.de
Mohamed El-Erian: Top-Ökonom fordert Rücktritt von US-Notenbankchef
US-Präsident Trump möchte Fed-Chef Jerome Powell absetzen, doch die Wall Street unterstützt den Chefbanker bislang. Mit Mohamed El-Erian verlangt nun ein bekannter Ökonom Powells Rückzug. Er hat wohl ...
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
A normal day in the Oval Office (polymarket.com/event/will-t...)
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Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 15/06/2025
Literally the Russian flag in the post. Two of them
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
Zum 150sten.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
New paper: do members of the Bundestag change their fiscal stance after an ECB decisions? I use NLP tools in an event study: a tightening causes a less expansionary stance in the two weeks after the ECB decision. The effect disappears at the ZLB. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
Stanley Fischer was incredibly influential www.ft.com/content/0990...
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
This is how you destroy a safe haven: "Section 899 of the bill ... would allow the US to impose additional taxes on companies and investors from countries that it deems to have punitive tax policies." www.ft.com/content/b400...
ft.com
Foreign tax provision in Trump budget bill spooks Wall Street
Legislation would erode the appeal of US financial assets, warn banks and investors
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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Absolutely ridiculous and irresponsible from El Erian. If you want to protect the integrity and independence of the Fed, you do not create gratuitous paths to power grabs that directly undermine independence
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
-25bp #ECB
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Sentiment falling off a cliff:
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European Space Agency @esa.int · 14/04/2025
🦑💫This NASA/ESA Hubble image features the spiral galaxy Messier 77, also known as the Squid Galaxy. It would take more than a century between the discovery of the galaxy and the realisation that the ‘spiral nebulae’ scattered across the sky were not part of our own galaxy! #HubbleSpaceTelescope 🔭
A close-up of a spiral galaxy, seen face-on. Its center glows brightly. From the sides of the galaxy’s core emerge spiral arms which wind through the round disc of the galaxy, filled with shining pink spots where stars are forming and more dark-red dust. Some faint stars can be seen around the galaxy, as well as a particularly bright star in the lower left of the image.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Kultur und russische Propaganda: www.zeit.de/kultur/2025-...
zeit.de
Hans-Joachim Frey: Putins Konzertmeister
Im Propagandakrieg mit dem Westen benutzt Russland die Kultur als Waffe. Dabei hilft der deutsche Kulturmanager Hans-Joachim Frey. Die Geschichte einer Indienstnahme
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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Here's how that compares to this point in Biden's term and Trump's first term:
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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Going off-piste
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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
All major currencies appreciating against USD today 1.5-2.5%
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Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +
ustr.gov
Reciprocal Tariff Calculations
Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe...
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
The US announces big tariffs and the Dollar falls on the day. That could mean: (i) markets don't believe any of this after all the back and forth on tariffs; (ii) markets think this hurts the US more than the rest of the world. I think it's (i), which means USD rises a lot if these tariffs stick.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
@timharford.ft.com on GDP www.ft.com/content/8d53...
ft.com
Elon Musk is wrong about GDP
The tech tycoon is not the first to misunderstand what gross domestic product is meant to measure
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Monika Schnitzer @monika-schnitzer.com · 01/04/2025
Gebt 🇺🇸 Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat! Ein Gastbeitrag im SPIEGEL, von Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Ulrike Malmendier, Moritz Schularick, Achim Truger, Georg Weizsäcker, Martin Werding, Cornelia Woll und mir. www.spiegel.de/ausland/usa-...
spiegel.de
(S+) Meinung: Gebt Amerikas Spitzenforschern eine neue Heimat in Deutschland!
US-Spitzenforscher leiden zunehmend unter den Einschnitten der Trump-Regierung. Deutschland sollte sie mit einem ambitionierten »Meitner-Einstein-Programm« ins Land locken, fordert jetzt eine Gruppe n...
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
"Many clients were looking to diversify away from the US dollar" www.ft.com/content/f8c7...
ft.com
Wealthy Americans seek refuge from Donald Trump in Swiss banks
Private bankers and investment managers report large increase in clients wanting to shift assets to Switzerland
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Check out the @alphaville.ft.com central banking merch: www.redbubble.com/de/people/ft...
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
It is very rare to see dissent from a governor. This shows the number of dissenting presidents and governors on the FOMC since 2009. Data: www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Sehr interessant:
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
A group of European countries is devising a strategy to poach researchers in the United States in response to American government cuts in education and research. www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
Europe looks to poach US researchers as Trump cuts funding
Twelve EU capitals want programs to bring over American scholars.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
The Fed talks about first and second derivatives: "the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings". Not easy to understand. #FOMC
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🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 19/03/2025
The thing about Biden/Harris losing is now autocrats are going to be a lot more bold in their anti-democratic actions knowing the US will not punish them.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
@bundesbank.de Gibt es eine Möglichkeit, die Artikel aus dem Monatsbericht als .pdf zu sehen, ohne die Formatierung zu zerstören?
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Interesting column featuring our recent paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy"
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Thanks @t0nyyates.bsky.social for citing our paper on "The Emotions of Monetary Policy" in the Financial Times
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
#BerlinerPhilharmoniker
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Jeromin Zettelmeyer @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
I published a short note on the implications of a proposed constitutional amendment in Germany, which includes an 11% of GDP fund for infrastructure and permission to fund most military spending outside the debt brake’s maximum deficit of 0.35% of GDP (Thread, 1/9): www.bruegel.org/analysis/can...
bruegel.org
Can Germany afford to take most defence spending out of its debt brake?
Higher German defence spending would be fiscally sustainable, but would require cuts elsewhere and would breach EU fiscal rules
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Monika Schnitzer @monika-schnitzer.com · 10/03/2025
Unser Beitrag in der @faznet.bsky.social : In den 🇺🇸 werden Wissenschaftlern die Mittel gekürzt. Das ist der richtige Moment, um US-Spitzenforscher nach 🇩🇪 zu holen! @arieldora.bsky.social & @martin-watzinger.com & ich in FAZ Wirtschaft/Der Volkswirt: „Deutschlands Chance“
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
PhD, Finanzindustrie, Gouverneur von zwei Zentralbanken, jeweils in schweren Krisen, danach Premierminister: Mark Carney erinnert an Mario Draghi. www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
faz.net
Trudeau-Nachfolge: Kanadas Liberale setzen auf einen Krisenmanager
Mark Carney, neuer Vorsitzender der Liberalen Partei Kanadas, zeigt sich im Zollkonflikt mit Trump unnachgiebig. Noch diese Woche soll er Justin Trudeau als Ministerpräsidenten ablösen.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
Wumms ohne Wachstumswende www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
faz.net
Pläne von Union und SPD: Wumms ohne Wachstumswende
Union und SPD setzen Deutschlands niedrige Verschuldung aufs Spiel, ohne dauerhaft mehr Wachstum zu ermöglichen. Bei manchen Plänen muss man sich an den Kopf fassen.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Die 10jährigen deutschen Zinsen haben heute um etwa 20bp auf die gestrigen News reagiert. Zum Vergleich hier die Reaktionen der 10y Zinsen auf die News an EZB-Sitzungstagen seit 1999 (Daten von Altavilla et al, 2019), ebenfalls in bp
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
"The most striking aspect to these steps, which amount to a charter for criminals, is that Trump is making little attempt to dress them up. This pig has no lipstick." www.ft.com/content/afe7...
ft.com
Trump’s heist in broad daylight
Having previously declared bitcoin to be a ‘scam’, the US president now wants to add it to the Fed’s balance sheet
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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
I don't think there's precedent for this level of open corruption at the federal level, certainly not in the last 100+ years.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Maurice Obstfeld: Tariffs are not going to solve America’s ills www.ft.com/content/ae84...
ft.com
Tariffs are not going to solve America’s ills
Punitive import duties will neither reduce the US trade deficit nor boost employment in manufacturing
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Journal of Economics and Statistics @jeconstat.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Call for papers for a special issue on "Fiscal Rules and Institutions". Our guest editors are Thiess Büttner (FAU Erlangen Nürnberg) and Friedrich Heinemann (ZEW and University of Heidelberg); deadline for full paper: 31.10.2025. www.uni-giessen.de/de/fbz/fb02/...
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Donald Tusk @donald-tusk.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Dear Volodymyr Zelenskyy, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone.
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
What is the economic effect of spending on the Bundeswehr? In a new note, we analyze the debates in the Bundestag since 1970. An increase in Bundeswehr-related fiscal sentiment causes an expansion of real economic activity. drive.google.com/file/d/1H83v...
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
@chrisgiles.ft.com: "If Trump wanted to take control, its constitutional protections are far from secure" www.ft.com/content/28d0...
ft.com
How to kill the Fed’s independence
If Trump wanted to take control, its constitutional protections are far from secure
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Peter Tillmann @peterhtillmann.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
"Deutschlands Sicherheit rechtfertigt höhere Staatsschulden" www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
faz.net
Bundestagswahl 2025: Deutschlands Sicherheit rechtfertigt höhere Staatsschulden
Der noch amtierende Bundestag sollte mit Zweidrittelmehrheit ein zweites Sondervermögen für militärische Ausrüstung verabschieden. Die Schuldenbremse aber muss bleiben.
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European Central Bank @ecb.europa.eu · 24/02/2025
Today marks the third anniversary of Russia’s unjustified invasion of Ukraine. We continue to stand with the people of Ukraine, who have been suffering through this horrific aggression.
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