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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 3h

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream tomorrow at 9:30 am (ET). I'll talk about how the US funds itself. I'll cover everything from how we finance the current account deficit to the budget deficit. Foreign demand for US Treasuries is actually quite decent... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 5h

The Euro zone needs to become a currency union where the risk of sovereign default is live and real. The status quo - where the ECB periodically intervenes to cap yields - just encourages ever worse fiscal policy, as France shows. This morning's live stream: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-never-...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 8h

Iran's inflation rate - in its official data - was 90% y/y last month. Of course the truth is that inflation is much worse in reality. The Rial is down 140% on an annualized basis since the blockade restarted on July 14, so this will keep getting worse... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 9h

Yesterday's weaker-than-expected payrolls brought a little bit of relief to global bond markets. The 10-year yield for France and Italy fell, but - as the charts show - they've decoupled from what's going on globally. Sadly, this relief won't last long... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/roadmap-fo...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 9h

I'm doing my usual Saturday morning live stream today at 9 am (ET). I'll talk about what's going on in the Euro zone, where the debt crisis that's festered since 2010 has once again reared its head. ECB will come in to cap yields, just like it always has... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 9h

France's 10-year real yield has surpassed the US. ECB is trying to sit this out, but that won't work. My best guess is it'll activate TPI for all except France, but France is too big to successfully ringfence all others. My roadmap for how this play out: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/roadmap-fo...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

As far as I can tell, ECB President Lagarde has so far not commented on French spreads, unlike last year when she said "she was monitoring spreads." That was verbal intervention and should never have happened, so maybe this time around someone told her... www.reuters.com/business/fin...

reuters.com

ECB's Lagarde sees no disorder in bonds despite French crisis

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday she didn't see any sign of disorder in the euro zone bond market despite an ongoing budget crisis in France.

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Italy likes to portray itself as a purveyor of fiscal probity these days, but the cash deficit - which is the one that matters because that's what determines debt issuance - just passed 6% of GDP. What's happening in the Euro zone isn't just about France... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-never-...

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chimpman.bsky.social @chimpman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I do t know enough about economics but if euro countries end up bailing out France will that increase or decrease the appetite for the U.K. to rejoin with a strong commitment to adopt the euro?

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

We're becoming inured to the daily declines in Iran's currency, but there's nothing normal about what's happening. Since the reimposition of the blockade on July 14, the Rial is down 30% against the Dollar. That's a symptom of Iran's economy imploding... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Let's be clear. The guys who're now clamoring for solidarity in the form of ECB intervention to cap their yields show no solidarity in support for Ukraine. In the Euro zone, solidarity is a one way street. Needless to say, that's politically unsustainable... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I'm doing my usual Saturday morning live stream tomorrow at 9 am (ET). I'll talk about the latest blow-up in Euro zone yields. The ECB will intervene, but - in doing so - it'll just give more fodder to Northern European populists who want to end the Euro... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The Euro zone is about political economy. Should low-debt countries like Germany and the Netherlands turn a blind eye - over and over - to the ECB bailing out high-debt countries when these refuse to bring debt down in good times? They obviously shouldn't... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-never-...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

We're now getting the usual dynamic when the Euro zone blows up. As yields for high-debt places like France and Italy head off into the stratosphere, yields for low-debt safe havens like Germany, Sweden and Switzerland are falling. The Euro zone is broken... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I wrote about shadow yields - what yields would be without constant central bank interference - in this post from July. Euro zone yields for high debt countries would be much higher without ECB yield caps. What we're now seeing is vindication of that... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/shadow-gov...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

There's no suspense how the latest Euro zone blow-up ends. The ECB will come in and cap yields. It'll say rising yields interfere with transmission of monetary policy, but that's nonsense. This is just a debt crisis and the ECB is outside its mandate... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The Euro zone debt crisis never ended. It got papered over by the ECB. That's why yields go vertical when bad shocks hit. Yields are low only because of the ECB, not fundamentals. Of course, now everyone's clamoring for the ECB to come in and cap yields... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-never-...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

France and Italy had many years to get fiscal policy under control. Instead they bent the ECB to their will. Supposed hawks like Isabel Schnabel, Joachim Nagel and Klaas Knot were only too happy to go along. The inevitable result is where we are today.... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

France is just a symptom. The ECB is the disease. The ECB intervened aggressively to cap yields in Spain and Italy in 2022. If you protect high-debt countries, you set the wrong incentives for politicians. Fiscal policy will just get worse and worse... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

France is in a debt crisis and there's zero suspense on how this ends. The ECB will intervene, just like it did for Italy and Spain in 2022. France is a symptom. The ECB is the disease because - over and over - it protects high-debt countries from markets... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

France is now in a debt crisis. What matters is the level of yields and the rate at which they're rising. The ECB is to blame. It intervened aggressively to cap Italian and Spanish yields in 2022, so the warning signals that should have come never did... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

French yields have totally decoupled. Two things drive this: (i) there's no end in sight to the war with Iran; (ii) France is in political paralysis. The latter is the primary driver, but it's made worse by the global picture. No end in sight to this... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Iran is reaching the end of the road. Its biggest trading partner earlier this year had been the UAE, but that trade got shut down. That only leaves Turkey as a trading partner and US sanctions are now taking that trade down to zero. Total isolation... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Without forward guidance, markets push for hikes at every meeting. The Fed is trying to extricate itself from an October hike, but the reaction at the long end of the curve is instantaneous. 10y10y forward yield is now far above its levels this summer... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-battle...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Yesterday's revisions to the PCE got rid of some of the residual seasonality that's thrown off inflation readings ever since COVID. The inflation spikes in the early part of the year are no more. US inflation is better behaved than first meets the eye... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-battle...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Markets want the Fed to hike. That's not about inflation. The weight of items in the PCE with inflation > 3% is trending down and fell further yesterday. Markets want hikes anyway and the long end of the yield curve is limbering up for another tantrum... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-battle...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The global bond market sell-off casts its shadow over everything. Today's inflation data suggest the Fed shouldn't hike in October, but - as short-end rates reprice - long-term yields are spiking. Markets want hikes and they'll fight until they get them... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Europe waits with bated breath for spreads to widen enough so the ECB can invoke "financial fragmentation" and use TPI to cap yields. The ECB has become a fiscal bailout facility because it thinks sovereign debt crises mean the Euro ends. Such nonsense... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/trouble-fo...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The US yield curve is steepening again. This is in my opinion what landed us with this month's hike. It was after the dovish July 29 meeting that the yield curve steepened out of control. That got us the surprise Treasury buybacks and the September hike... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The only major exporter to Iran that remains is Turkey due to its long land border. This trade is now getting shut down due to US sanctions, so the economic isolation of Iran will increase exponentially going forward. Iran is reaching the end of the road... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The blockade and US sanctions are nearing maximum impact. The power of these things is that Iran's regime can obviously roll the clock forward. The devastation to the economy will now get much worse quickly. Imaginations will be running wild in Tehran... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I've pushed back on the idea there'll be back-to-back hikes and the Fed is now trying to take October off the table. The key is now how yields behave. The yield curve is steepening and the question is if this runs out of control again like after July 29... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

There was no way the Fed could validate all the hikes markets price. Between the pushback from NY Fed President Williams yesterday and the dovish PCE reading today, an October hike is off the table. That puts the debasement trade back in the driver's seat... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

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Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Another example of how “strategic sectors” arguments can be misused to protect vested interests. economist.com/europe/2026/...

economist.com

Ireland is helping supply Russia’s war machine

The EU considers putting an Irish alumina refiner on its sanctions list

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The rial has collapsed by around 68% since the resumption of the Hormuz blockade on July 14, to now about 2.5 million rials per US dollar. Iran's oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have also collapsed. The question to my mind is how much pain is the govern⁴ment willing to inflict on its people,

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It's almost a perversion to blame the Yen carry trade for rising US yields. Yields are rising because our debt issuance is running at 7.5% of GDP in the 12 months through June of this year. Fiscal policy is quite literally out of control. That's the story... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-yen...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There's a theory going around that US yields are spiking because of a Yen carry trade unwind. Japan has great data for its portfolio flows into long-term US debt. Those flows do NOT explain the recent spike in US yields. Let's stop blaming Mrs. Watanabe... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-yen...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The success of the blockade is about far more than Iran. The West struggles to counter oil exporting dictators for fear of spiking oil prices. This led to appeasement on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Europe can now blockade Russia in the Baltic... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/europe-nee...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

France's real 10-year yield is 2.8% versus the US at 2.9%. All of high-debt Europe now has yields above where they were in 2022 when the ECB hit the panic button and intervened aggressively to cap them. The Euro zone debt crisis never really ended at all. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Warsh has really backed himself into a corner. Without forward guidance, markets just price a hike for every meeting. We're pricing 70% odds for a hike on October 28 and 100 bps through end-2027. If Warsh doesn't follow through, markets will pitch a fit... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Before the war, Saudi Arabia exported around 6 mb/d. We're basically back to that, only at much higher prices, which means the Kingdom is getting a massive windfall. Iran is basically handing its neighbors a massive windfall while it remains blockaded... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/saudi-arab...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

We're nearing the end of the line on Iran. The Rial had another big fall yesterday. Iran exported 80 million barrels of oil in the 4 weeks before the blockade was reimposed on July 14. That cash is now depleted. The blockade and US sanctions are working... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-econom...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

In August, the benign take on the global bond sell-off was that it was due to thin liquidity. Well, the sell-off has gotten worse since then and it's September now. There's lots of whataboutism on what's going on. This is how a global debt crisis starts... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Italy (lhs) and France (rhs) are getting absolutely clobbered today. 10y10y forward yields (orange) for both are up 10 bps in one day, which is a massive jump for the long end of the yield curve. At what point do we call this what it is? A debt crisis... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/trouble-fo...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The 10y10y forward US Treasury yield is now firmly above anything we've seen in the past two decades. The US looks comparatively good compared to the rest of the world, where the sell-off in global bond markets is even more severe. A global debt shock... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

There's two kinds of countries in the global bond market sell-off: those that are seeing yields rise more than the global average and those that are below. The dividing line is debt. If ever there was an argument for responsible fiscal policy, this is it... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

There is no other EM that's transformed itself quite like Brazil. Markets haven't rewarded this with a stronger Brazilian Real because they don't like Lula, but a win by Bolsonaro could change all that. $/BRL would quickly go to 4.80 or lower if he wins... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I first advocated for blockading Iran in this piece on March 16. Since the reimposition of the blockade on July 14, it's become a massively potent weapon. No regime - however odious - can survive total implosion of its economy, which is what's happening... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/embargo-iran

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Iran used the one month pause in the blockade to export 80 million barrels of oil. The cash from those exports is about to run dry, so we're about to see a complete meltdown in the Rial and the economy. What's happened so far has only been the prelude... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-econom...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It sounds counterintuitive, but Saudi Arabia is the big winner in this war. It's annual revenue from oil exports was $150 bn before the war started. That's now $210 bn or higher because the rise in oil prices more than offsets the fall in export volumes... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/saudi-arab...

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