iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 1h

”Treasuries came under renewed pressure Monday, pushing longer-dated yields to fresh multi-decade peaks as bonds extended their monthslong slide.” 🇺🇸 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

Treasuries Slump Pushes Long-End Yields to Fresh 24-Year Highs

Treasuries came under renewed pressure Monday, pushing longer-dated yields to fresh multi-decade peaks as bonds extended their monthslong slide.

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 17h

Growth in the value of Korean exports to China...insane. Around 100% y/y in the recent months. Of course exports from Hong Kong, Taiwan etc. to China also expanding fast.

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 21h

Especially investment outlook is bleak in 2026 and 2027. Several major infrastructure projects have been completed or are close to completion, and there is no pipeline of further projects. High interest rates constrain private investments. 2/

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Edvard Munch @edvardmunch.bsky.social · 10h

Self-Portrait in Bergen 1916 botfrens.com/collections/90/content…

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Taking Action 4 US🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦🇩🇰🇬🇱🇨🇦🇩🇪📚📗 @takingaction4us.bsky.social · 10h

“Sabotage, assassinations, hacker attacks, disinformation…are already part of an undeclared war... Jäger’s words are of particular public interest. That's a good thing, because the German public needs a more informed debate about the increasingly endangered security.”

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 21h

"Robust government spending growth in recent years has been a major driver of the Russian economy, rising by an average of 15 % a year between 2022 and 2026. Growth has mainly come from war-related expenditure, estimated to now account for about 20 % of total government spending." 4/

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 21h

Military-industrial sectors and the war itself demand more and more resources. 3/

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 17h

Growth in the value of Korean exports to China...insane. Around 100% y/y in the recent months. Of course exports from Hong Kong, Taiwan etc. to China also expanding fast.

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 21h

Our latest forecast for #Russia 2026-28 is out! Basically our view is unchanged from the spring: Growth remains anemic, mostly driven by war-related industries. Other sectors stagnate or contract. 1/ @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi www.bofit.fi/en/bofit/new...

bofit.fi

BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028 / 2

The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) is an internationally renowned research institute specialising in emerging economies and global economic developments.

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 21h

US-Israeli military intervention in Iran sharply reoriented mobilisation away from anti-government protest and toward pro-government activity. Overt foreign intervention can make sovereignty politically valuable to incumbent governments. cepr.org/voxeu/column...

The figure plots the average number of weekly protests per county in Iran.

Military intervention may be undertaken to weaken a hostile regime and strengthen the position of its opponents. This column argues that evidence from the 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran points to a different outcome: the strikes left total protest levels broadly unchanged but sharply reoriented mobilisation away from anti-government protest and toward pro-government activity. The findings suggest that overt foreign intervention can make sovereignty politically valuable to incumbent governments by making domestic opposition easier to portray as aligned with an external adversary.

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Prof Frank McDonough @fxmc1957.bsky.social · 21h

5 October 1969. Monty Python’s Flying Circus was 1st broadcast on BBC1 at 11 PM. The comedy group were left to right: Terry Jones, Graham Chapman, John Cleese, Eric Idle, Terry Gilliam and Michael Palin. There were 45 episodes from 1969 to 1974 and 2 episodes for German TV.

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European Central Bank @ecb.europa.eu · 22h

The recent surge in energy prices represents a second wave of the energy supply shock, says Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. Its effects on growth and inflation must be assessed alongside fiscal policy, AI and financial conditions. Read the speech www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...

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BOFIT @bofit.suomenpankki.fi · 21h

BOFIT Venäjä-ennuste 2026–2028 on julkaistu. Venäjän talouskasvu on hidastunut huomattavasti, ja kasvun odotetaan hiipuvan ensi vuonna edelleen noin puolen prosentin tuntumaan. Lue lisää 🔗 www.bofit.fi/fi/ennusteet... #Venäjä #talous #ennuste @suomenpankki.fi

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 21h

bofit.fi

BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2026–2028 / 2

The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) is an internationally renowned research institute specialising in emerging economies and global economic developments.

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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 23h

Russia’s federal statistics agency has reportedly stopped publishing the number of people living below the poverty line for 2026, but it's kept the percentage rate (7% in Q2). Why? Rosstat cites a law allowing the govt to restrict release of some official statistics. t.me/economystica...

t.me

Экономистика

Росстат прекратил публикацию абсолютных оценок численности бедных за 2026 год. В публикации от 9 сентября вместо числа жителей за I и II кварталы, а также первое полугодие стоят прочерки. Ведомство со...

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Nobel Prize @nobelprize.org · 23h

Tu Youyou discovered a substance used to treat malaria. She tested the new drug on herself to speed up the time needed for development. That drug has now saved the lives of millions. Later today, we will announce the 2026 medicine prize. Who will be the next to change the course of medical history?

A portrait of Tu Youyou in front of a dark grey background. The light is on the left side of her face leaving the right side slightly in shadow. She is looking directly into the camera with a small smile.

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

”…closures mean the number of entities has fallen to 3,139, down 23 per cent in the four years to 2025… Low rates and deflation in China have also put pressure on bank profits in the shadow of a prolonged property slowdown.” 🇨🇳 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

giftarticle.ft.com

China closes hundreds of banks to bolster financial system

More than 670 lenders, a record, shut down last year as Fitch says smaller players remain sector’s weakest part

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Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Russia has introduced differentiated mortgage subsidies after all, so bad luck housebuilders. Big families still get big subsidies, but the vast majority (the Russian fertility rate is 1.37) not so much, while those in Moscow or St Petersburg (c.41% of all new mortgages in August) get even less.

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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 04/10/2026

TAPPER: 2 years ago, Trump said he thought he could get mortgage rates down to 3%. Last week mortgage rates had the biggest weekly jump in 4 years. It's more than 7%. Why has Trump failed to deliver on that promise? HASSETT: President Trump hasn't failed to deliver at all. The economy is booming.

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American Association of Wine Economists AAWE @wineecon.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Per capita beer consumption in Germany fell from 109.3 liters in 2011 to 84.3 liters in 2025 (−23%), with regular beer declining from 103.3 to 75.4 liters (−27%). Over the same period, non-alcoholic beer rose from 6.0 to 8.9 liters, increasing its share of total beer consumption from 5.5% to 10.6%.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Free weekend update is out. Russia has a strategy for this winter--massive war crimes to make Ukraine unlivable. We need to speak the truth on that. One reason they need to do this is that they are struggling in other parts of the war--see Vivaldi. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-up...

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Weekend Update #205: Russia’s Strategy In Two Words: “War Crimes”

Operation Vivaldi, Even More Robots; The Trump-Putin Quid Pro Quo

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Prof Frank McDonough @fxmc1957.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

4 October 1963. The Beatles made their 1st appearance on the new ITV pop show Ready Steady Go! The show went out early on Friday evenings with each episode beginning with the words: “The weekend starts here.” The Beatles only appeared live 2 more times on the show.

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Jake Broe @realjakebroe.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This was a two act play by the Russians. It’s both a tragedy and a comedy.

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Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

How the American life changed from 1995 to 2026 is wild. More concerts, more exercise, more video games. Fewer books, less church, not staying at work longer (I guess you leave on time and continue work at home?). Source: buff.ly/QkmYfkv

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ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin @rfberlin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

📢 RFBerlin is hiring Postdoctoral Fellows in Economics. No teaching obligations, up to six years, unique datasets, and dedicated mentoring, a research-first home in Berlin. Apply by 10 November: buff.ly/v9Jz8ru #EconJobMarket #EconSky

buff.ly

Postdoctoral Fellow in Economics

We at the ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin) invite applications for postdoctoral fellow positions in economics. The position is initially offered for two years with possible renewals subject to…

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

“I am the house.” - Sept 8 “I can’t control the bond market.” - Oct 3 @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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NBER @nber.org · 03/10/2026

The dollar remains dominant, with the euro and renminbi stuck in a fragmented second tier. Innovations like dollar-backed stablecoins could entrench that dominance further, from @gordonliao, @EswarSPrasad, and Tony Zhang www.nber.org/papers/w35822

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Used to be quite different 🇧🇷🇨🇳🇺🇸

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Tony Iommi @iommi.com · 03/10/2026

Had a great time chatting to Krishnan Guru-Murthy about life, guitars and my new album yesterday. UK viewers can keep an eye out for the interview on Channel 4 News this evening! - Tony ✟

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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

We could be heading toward an #EU enlargement "Super Tuesday" on October 13. Pending smooth progress, the agenda includes 🇺🇦 Ukraine: 2 clusters to open 🇲🇩 Moldova: 2 clusters to open 🇲🇪 Montenegro: 3 chapters to close 🇦🇱 Albania: 1 chapter to close

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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

That said, the Trump v. Fed story isn't over, in particular because he is still threatening to fire Lisa Cook. But it's very hard to see how that would succeed. I think we're entering a new era in the Trump-Fed story. We'll see how it plays out. ~fin~

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Dexter Tiff Roberts @dtiffroberts.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

𝗫𝗶 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗨𝗦 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝗮𝗶𝘄𝗮𝗻. Mutual distrust likely to torpedo US-China AI dialogue. And readings of White House and Chinese foreign ministry fact sheets reveals wide differences. dexter.substack.com/p/trade-war-...

dexter.substack.com

Trade War

Trump outdoes self with gushing praise for Xi at Washington summit. Two leaders to meet twice more this year, at APEC in Shenzhen and G20 in Florida. And more details on US-China trade agreement expec...

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Sort of insane fact about how broken US urban planning is—America now spends more building *just the lights for roads and highways* than on all subways & ground mass transit combined Spending on roadway *pavement* is 18x transit spending

a graph of roadway and mass transit lights

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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 02/10/2026

Recessions are largely goods phenomena, with services making much smaller contributions to the business cycle. And overall goods GDP has been stable at around 1/4th of total GDP over the past couple decades. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Figure 2. Goods production drives the business cycle

Figure 6. Goods GDP has grown faster than goods-industry value added

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Hong Kong published its first five-year plan for economic and social development (2026–2030). The plan supports mainland China’s five-year plan for the same period. The Hong Kong special administration region (SAR) had previously not used five-year plans in guiding economic and social development..”

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The Insider @theins.press · 02/10/2026

Kazakhstan detains Ukrainian woman at Russia’s request after she traveled to Astana to bring her grandson home A lawyer details Liubov Rozhanska’s attempt to recover her grandson, one of the thousands of children Ukraine lists as abducted by Russia.

theins.press

Kazakhstan detains Ukrainian woman at Russia’s request after she traveled to Astana to bring her grandson home

Ukrainian citizen Liubov Rozhanska has been detained in Kazakhstan at Russia’s request, lawyer Alexei Pryanishnikov told The Insider. Rozhanska had flown to…

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

”…prospect of additional diesel supplies has hit European refining margins particularly hard, with margins falling about 10%, compared with roughly 5% in the US…Reduced European demand for imported diesel could also weigh on US exports and margins”🇪🇺🇺🇸 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

G7 to Release Up to 100 Millions of Barrels of Diesel, Crude

The Group of Seven nations and its partners plan to release as much as 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks, capping a week of mounting pressure from the Trump administration to brin...

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The Economist @economist.com · 02/10/2026

Vladimir Putin has ordered attacks on everyday civilian targets in Kyiv: supermarkets, data centres, playgrounds. Will this latest ferocious assault destabilise Ukraine—or increase its resolve?

bit.ly

Putin’s new bombardment of Kyiv has a terrible logic

A Russian terror campaign aims to cripple the capital even before winter hits

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Helsinki Security Forum 2026 Presidents of 🇫🇮🇲🇩🇺🇦 #HSF2026

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

”The recovery in exports has been broad-based across many goods categories. China’s import flows from US have also recovered this year (up 3%). Overall import growth has been driven by the massive increase in the value of microchip imports. Imports in most other goods categories continued to decline

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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

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Iñaki Aldasoro @aldasoro.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

ICYMI, new bulletin out on the interplay between automation through AI/robots and ageing

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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 02/10/2026

✨ The #HSF2026 report is out! As technology, climate change, biodiversity loss, and geopolitical risks reshape our world, we need a fresh perspective on security. FIIA researchers explore what this means for Europe and Finland. ⬇️ helsinkisecurityforum.fi/news/helsinki-security-forum-2026-report/

Cover of the 5th annual Helsinki Security Forum Report. Subheader: 2026 – Layers of Security. Blue background with golden font.

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