iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 5h

A small change to the Assembly Election forecast model - it wasn't using a unionist transfer model for PUP votes. Fixed this and it had a small impact on EB, UB and EL/D, and increased overall unionist expected seats by 0.4.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This was the most common outcome in the Assembly Election Forecast runs. The DUP on a net loss of 4; gaining W Belfast from PBP but losing Foyle and E Antrim to UUP, and Strangford and South Antrim to the TUV. SDLP gain from Alliance in Strangford; SF gain 3 (N Belfast, Upper Bann, E L/Derry).

The seat level version of the 2027 Assembly Election Forecast

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Hundreds of millions of simulated ballots later, these were the results of the Assembly Election forecast. The PBP seat in West Belfast was the seat most likely to change hands, the second Alliance seat in Strangford the most marginal.

A 2027 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Forecast

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Simulating 1000 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections with hundreds of millions of individual ballots. Imagine the discourse going on here.

A screenshot of a Northern Ireland Assembly Election forecast

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Area man picks the worst possible time to finish his NI Assembly Election forecast model

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Jordan @jordanpfot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Danny Tommo leaving Patriot Platform to go and run a Covid conscious lesbian pub in Northern Ireland.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

It's only one data point and obviously very early days, but today's wage data from Canada shows a downtick in the software salary premium for Q2 2026. Possibly an early signal of AI-driven disruption in the tech labour market?

A chart showing the software salary premium over all vacancies in the Statistics Canada Job Vacancy and Wage Survey

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I've accidentally made the most boring chart in history - monthly production of cardboard boxes in Poland

Monthly production of corrugated cardboard boxes in Poland in tonnes

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

I've made a new website that tracks data over time to test claims about where the world is heading; things like "AI is going to disrupt the labour market" or "the current El Niño event will lead to higher food prices" salmonofdata.com

A salmonofdata.com chart showing forecast and actuals for El Niño

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

It's striking how much schools in London have improved since 2009. The English regions have more or less stayed still, which is impressive given significant declines elsewhere. Scotland, Wales and NI are all doing very poorly by comparison.

PISA Maths scores by UK country and English region

PISA Reading scores by UK country and English region

PISA Science scores by UK country and English region

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

This year's PISA survey asked questions on AI use at school and the results are clear: increased AI use in school is associated with lower scores.

A chart showing PISA 2025 scores for the United States with scores for answers to the question "This school year, how often did you use AI tools at school?"

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The decline in PISA scores in Northern Ireland is almost entirely attributable to grammar schools. Scores in secondary schools are broadly unchanged since 2009, whilst scores at grammar schools are down an average of 40 points; equivalent to two years of education.

A chart showing Northern Ireland PISA scores from 2009 to 2025 for Science, Reading and Maths for Northern Ireland grammar and non-grammar schools. Grammar schools show a decline of around 40 points since 2009; non-grammar schools are broadly flat.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Why are the devolved administrations failing so badly at education?

A chart from the Northern Ireland National Report for PISA 2025: Figure 7.7. Trend in pupils average mathematics score by country (4 UK countries)

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

I've seen a lot of discussion about the potential impact of AI on white collar jobs, but hadn't seen any tracking of how it might show up in the data. I made 8 metrics to track until 2030 that could provide evidence for or against AI job displacement. aidisplacementtracker.com

aidisplacementtracker.com

AI Job Displacement Tracker

Public evidence on white-collar labour displacement. Historical data and frozen scenarios through 2029.

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lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

i am not wading into “spreadsheet people” discourse, because all of you are freaks who use spreadsheets as databases and even an idealized form of ai wouldn’t save you people

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

With their 3 candidates receiving 28, 18, and 15 votes, the Monster Raving Loony Party did an admirable job of balancing the Loony vote in Clacton. Shame that the single member first-past-the-post thing will take the shine off the achievement. Might have been a bit shy of a quota as well.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Walking around Belfast with a pint of Beamish is a 10/10 experience, would recommend

A photo of me with a pint of Beamish outside the Sunflower

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Mark Wallace @wallaceme.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

In case you thought you’d already heard academia’s worst thing this week: you were wrong.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Meath because of Tayto Park. Kildare because it's flat. Donegal because people move there when they retire. We can recreate it in the aggregate.

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Rico Charges @nochorus.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

bsky.app/profile/plea...

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Realised when walking around the Fleadh: Belfast has a median age of 36, which means that the majority of the population has no memory of what Belfast was like before the 1994 ceasefires.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Every year is the best year for music because you have all the music that was released previously in addition to all the new stuff that was released this year

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

It's not August yet, and already 2026 has tied 1976 for the number of days where the weather station at Heathrow was over 32°C and 30°C, and has beaten the record for the number of days over 28°C (which was set last year).

A chart showing the number of days over temperature thresholds (28, 30 and 32) at London Heathrow from 1973 to 2026.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

It's not even August and already 2026 is the record year for which air conditioning would be required to maintain a safe/pleasant temperature in London.

A chart showing days where air conditioning is necessary to maintain a safe/pleasant temperature in London. YTD 2026 is the highest point.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

It's never been cheaper to run for parliament.

A chart showing the deposit to run in Westminster elections from 1918 to 2026 in £2026, showing a fall from £15.5k in 1934 to £500 today.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

You'd have to go back to the 90s to find an Assembly election with a SF share as low as this. I am somewhat skeptical.

A chart showing shares at NI Assembly and Forum elections since 1996

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Chris Hewson @chrishewson.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Chagos with Ed Milliband! [Am I doing this right?]

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Always think of that Frank Skinner story every time I see someone kissing the World Cup trophy

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

So they did a countdown to kickoff and Count von Count was in attendance this was the biggest missed opportunity of all time

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

It'd be fun if the referee ran on to say that law 7.2 of the game stating the half time interval should be no longer than 15 minutes has been broken and the match is cancelled

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

In my happy place (at the Deutsche Bundesbank explaining the ECB monetary policy target to my doubtlessly fascinated teen sons)

A picture of me enthusiastically gesticulating at an exhibition on the ECB monetary policy target

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Michael Fry @bigdirtyfry.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Remove the red flare of triumph. Insert the blue flare of despair.

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Norm Charlatan @normcharlatan.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Who would have known Argentina would have so much trouble battling a remote Atlantic archipelago?

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Pavel @spavel.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

Graphic design is my passion.

A sign that has two concentric rings of text but it's laid out in a confusing way so it looks like the first sentence is "it's against the law to keep alcohol out of the hands of youth" and the second sentence is "supply alcohol to minors."

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Who could forget the endlessly inventive whimsical schemes of the Alternative Arrangements Commission. If only the obstinate men and women of Ulster had truly believed in the power of blockchain.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

tfw you come at the king and forget to not miss

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

A good time to be in the wide-angle lens business

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Anon Opin @anonopin.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Every General Election, Panini should bring out a parliament sticker album.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The latest population projection for Northern Ireland shows yet another lowering of the expected future birth rate. In the 2014 projection the expected peak population year was 2056; the peak is now expected in 2031.

A chart showing Northern Ireland birth projections and actual births. Each successive population shows a lower projection for the number of births.

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

The Millennials are going to be the single largest generational cohort until they start dying off in significant numbers in the 2060s. They'll probably outnumber the post Gen-Alpha cohorts into the 2070s.

A chart showing a population forecast for Northern Ireland by birth cohort

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

I remember thinking Tom Waits was impossibly old when Mule Variations came out but he would have been the age Shakira is now

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Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Petition for the Alliance Party to rebrand themselves as Wow!

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FactCheckNI @factcheckni.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

The claim that regional inequality has doubled in Northern Ireland is not accurate. 📈Stats show Belfast’s output per person grew faster than average but that’s not a full measure of regional inequality. Read why here 👇

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