iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 12h

The best case scenario for Unionism was 41 seats, which happened in 0.2% of the model runs. It would look something like this.

A chart showing what 41 unionist seats would look like

020

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 12h

The best case scenario for Nationalism was 45 seats - this happened in 0.5% of the 1000 model runs. It would look like this or something similar.

A chart showing what 45 nationalist seats could look like

110

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 12h

This was the distribution of seat win probabilities by designation from the Assembly Election forecast.

A chart showing seat win probabilities with designation

130

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

One thing I'm never ever doing again is an NI Local Election forecast model. Godspeed to all you public-spirited oddballs wanting to get involved with local government but I'm not getting involved. Thank you for your service though 🫡

070

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

East L/Derry looks set to be very close.

131

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The model assumes a unionist -> nationalist swing in Upper Bann. If this doesn't materialise an SF gain could be at the expense of Alliance.

121

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In Strangford an unwind of the tactical Alliance vote from 2024 usually sees the SDLP elected on Alliance transfers when the 2nd Alliance candidate is eliminated. It could go the other way round as well.

231

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I was wondering why the model was so bullish on SF's chances of a third in North Belfast. They usually get 3 elected under quota by having all their candidates ahead of the 2nd DUP candidate after Alliance are elected and everyone else is eliminated.

141

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

A small change to the Assembly Election forecast model - it wasn't using a unionist transfer model for PUP votes. Fixed this and it had a small impact on EB, UB and EL/D, and increased overall unionist expected seats by 0.4.

171

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

If SF can flip the DUP seats in Upper Bann and North Belfast, and the Independent Unionist seat in East L/Derry, then Nationalist will likely be the largest designation in the Assembly; these are the key races. Strangford could be very interesting too.

251

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This was the most common outcome in the Assembly Election Forecast runs. The DUP on a net loss of 4; gaining W Belfast from PBP but losing Foyle and E Antrim to UUP, and Strangford and South Antrim to the TUV. SDLP gain from Alliance in Strangford; SF gain 3 (N Belfast, Upper Bann, E L/Derry).

The seat level version of the 2027 Assembly Election Forecast

283

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The projected vote share by party and designation.

Results of the Northern Ireland Assembly forecast model

151

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Hundreds of millions of simulated ballots later, these were the results of the Assembly Election forecast. The PBP seat in West Belfast was the seat most likely to change hands, the second Alliance seat in Strangford the most marginal.

A 2027 Northern Ireland Assembly Election Forecast

4104

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Simulating 1000 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections with hundreds of millions of individual ballots. Imagine the discourse going on here.

A screenshot of a Northern Ireland Assembly Election forecast

051

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Area man picks the worst possible time to finish his NI Assembly Election forecast model

071

Reposted by Peter Donaghy

Jordan @jordanpfot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Danny Tommo leaving Patriot Platform to go and run a Covid conscious lesbian pub in Northern Ireland.

011418

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

It's only one data point and obviously very early days, but today's wage data from Canada shows a downtick in the software salary premium for Q2 2026. Possibly an early signal of AI-driven disruption in the tech labour market?

A chart showing the software salary premium over all vacancies in the Statistics Canada Job Vacancy and Wage Survey

100

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I've accidentally made the most boring chart in history - monthly production of cardboard boxes in Poland

Monthly production of corrugated cardboard boxes in Poland in tonnes

150

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

I've made a new website that tracks data over time to test claims about where the world is heading; things like "AI is going to disrupt the labour market" or "the current El Niño event will lead to higher food prices" salmonofdata.com

A salmonofdata.com chart showing forecast and actuals for El Niño

000

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

It's striking how much schools in London have improved since 2009. The English regions have more or less stayed still, which is impressive given significant declines elsewhere. Scotland, Wales and NI are all doing very poorly by comparison.

PISA Maths scores by UK country and English region

PISA Reading scores by UK country and English region

PISA Science scores by UK country and English region

031

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

A similar result for pupils in Scotland - the higher the use of AI in school, the lower the results for Reading, Maths and Science.

A chart showing PISA 2025 scores for Scotland with scores for answers to the question "This school year, how often did you use AI tools at school?"

110

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

This year's PISA survey asked questions on AI use at school and the results are clear: increased AI use in school is associated with lower scores.

A chart showing PISA 2025 scores for the United States with scores for answers to the question "This school year, how often did you use AI tools at school?"

124

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The decline in PISA scores in Northern Ireland is almost entirely attributable to grammar schools. Scores in secondary schools are broadly unchanged since 2009, whilst scores at grammar schools are down an average of 40 points; equivalent to two years of education.

A chart showing Northern Ireland PISA scores from 2009 to 2025 for Science, Reading and Maths for Northern Ireland grammar and non-grammar schools. Grammar schools show a decline of around 40 points since 2009; non-grammar schools are broadly flat.

030

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Why are the devolved administrations failing so badly at education?

A chart from the Northern Ireland National Report for PISA 2025: Figure 7.7. Trend in pupils average mathematics score by country (4 UK countries)

010

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

I've seen a lot of discussion about the potential impact of AI on white collar jobs, but hadn't seen any tracking of how it might show up in the data. I made 8 metrics to track until 2030 that could provide evidence for or against AI job displacement. aidisplacementtracker.com

aidisplacementtracker.com

AI Job Displacement Tracker

Public evidence on white-collar labour displacement. Historical data and frozen scenarios through 2029.

010

Reposted by Peter Donaghy

lowtax speedrun enjoyer @rickywlmsbong.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

i am not wading into “spreadsheet people” discourse, because all of you are freaks who use spreadsheets as databases and even an idealized form of ai wouldn’t save you people

4362053

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

With their 3 candidates receiving 28, 18, and 15 votes, the Monster Raving Loony Party did an admirable job of balancing the Loony vote in Clacton. Shame that the single member first-past-the-post thing will take the shine off the achievement. Might have been a bit shy of a quota as well.

051

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Walking around Belfast with a pint of Beamish is a 10/10 experience, would recommend

A photo of me with a pint of Beamish outside the Sunflower

1122

Reposted by Peter Donaghy

Mark Wallace @wallaceme.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

In case you thought you’d already heard academia’s worst thing this week: you were wrong.

6034871

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Meath because of Tayto Park. Kildare because it's flat. Donegal because people move there when they retire. We can recreate it in the aggregate.

051

Reposted by Peter Donaghy

Rico Charges @nochorus.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

bsky.app/profile/plea...

242310548

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Realised when walking around the Fleadh: Belfast has a median age of 36, which means that the majority of the population has no memory of what Belfast was like before the 1994 ceasefires.

4266

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Every year is the best year for music because you have all the music that was released previously in addition to all the new stuff that was released this year

030

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

It's not August yet, and already 2026 has tied 1976 for the number of days where the weather station at Heathrow was over 32°C and 30°C, and has beaten the record for the number of days over 28°C (which was set last year).

A chart showing the number of days over temperature thresholds (28, 30 and 32) at London Heathrow from 1973 to 2026.

101

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

A combined SF/SDLP/Aontú share of 38% with a DUP/UUP/TUV share of 43% seems implausible as well. A 5 point unionist lead in 2027 after a 1 point lead in 2022 would be bizarre.

A chart showing the Nationalist/Unionist/Other share at NI Assembly and Forum elections since 1996.

032

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

I would be *very* surprised if SF went from 29% in 2022 (and 31% in the 2023 locals) to 22% next year. I don't really buy it at all.

431

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

It's not even August and already 2026 is the record year for which air conditioning would be required to maintain a safe/pleasant temperature in London.

A chart showing days where air conditioning is necessary to maintain a safe/pleasant temperature in London. YTD 2026 is the highest point.

030

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

It's never been cheaper to run for parliament.

A chart showing the deposit to run in Westminster elections from 1918 to 2026 in £2026, showing a fall from £15.5k in 1934 to £500 today.

2249

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

You'd have to go back to the 90s to find an Assembly election with a SF share as low as this. I am somewhat skeptical.

A chart showing shares at NI Assembly and Forum elections since 1996

342

Reposted by Peter Donaghy

Chris Hewson @chrishewson.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Chagos with Ed Milliband! [Am I doing this right?]

211680331

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Always think of that Frank Skinner story every time I see someone kissing the World Cup trophy

020

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

They need to restructure in extra time

010

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

So they did a countdown to kickoff and Count von Count was in attendance this was the biggest missed opportunity of all time

011

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

It'd be fun if the referee ran on to say that law 7.2 of the game stating the half time interval should be no longer than 15 minutes has been broken and the match is cancelled

072

Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

In my happy place (at the Deutsche Bundesbank explaining the ECB monetary policy target to my doubtlessly fascinated teen sons)

A picture of me enthusiastically gesticulating at an exhibition on the ECB monetary policy target

160

Reposted by Peter Donaghy

Michael Fry @bigdirtyfry.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Remove the red flare of triumph. Insert the blue flare of despair.

115712