Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 12/10/2026Executive ministries if Justice is distributed by d'Hondt 000 0
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 11/10/2026From the Assembly election model - this was the estimated number of Executive ministries by each party and designation (assuming each party takes their entitlement and Justice isn't allocated by d'Hondt) 120 2
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 09/10/2026The slightly more chaotic chart of movement between parties since 1998, and the 2027 forecast. 130 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 09/10/2026This was the single most common outcome. Mostly DUP losses, to a mix of UUP, TUV and SF. Alliance lost 2 to the SDLP and 1 to the UUP. 240 4
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 09/10/2026I made a couple of changes to the Assembly Election forecast model. It has increased the estimated number of Unionist seats slightly, but Nationalist was the largest designation 68% of the time, Unionist 10% of the time, with a tie in 22% of the model runs. 250 5
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026The best case scenario for Unionism was 41 seats, which happened in 0.2% of the model runs. It would look something like this. 130 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026The best case scenario for Nationalism was 45 seats - this happened in 0.5% of the 1000 model runs. It would look like this or something similar. 210 2
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026This was the distribution of seat win probabilities by designation from the Assembly Election forecast. 130 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026The model assumes a unionist -> nationalist swing in Upper Bann. If this doesn't materialise an SF gain could be at the expense of Alliance. 121 2
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026In Strangford an unwind of the tactical Alliance vote from 2024 usually sees the SDLP elected on Alliance transfers when the 2nd Alliance candidate is eliminated. It could go the other way round as well. 231 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I was wondering why the model was so bullish on SF's chances of a third in North Belfast. They usually get 3 elected under quota by having all their candidates ahead of the 2nd DUP candidate after Alliance are elected and everyone else is eliminated. 141 4
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026A small change to the Assembly Election forecast model - it wasn't using a unionist transfer model for PUP votes. Fixed this and it had a small impact on EB, UB and EL/D, and increased overall unionist expected seats by 0.4. 171 7
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026This was the most common outcome in the Assembly Election Forecast runs. The DUP on a net loss of 4; gaining W Belfast from PBP but losing Foyle and E Antrim to UUP, and Strangford and South Antrim to the TUV. SDLP gain from Alliance in Strangford; SF gain 3 (N Belfast, Upper Bann, E L/Derry). 283 8
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026The projected vote share by party and designation. 151 5
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Hundreds of millions of simulated ballots later, these were the results of the Assembly Election forecast. The PBP seat in West Belfast was the seat most likely to change hands, the second Alliance seat in Strangford the most marginal. 4104 10
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Simulating 1000 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections with hundreds of millions of individual ballots. Imagine the discourse going on here. 051 5
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026It's only one data point and obviously very early days, but today's wage data from Canada shows a downtick in the software salary premium for Q2 2026. Possibly an early signal of AI-driven disruption in the tech labour market? 100 1
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026I've accidentally made the most boring chart in history - monthly production of cardboard boxes in Poland 150 5
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 13/09/2026I've made a new website that tracks data over time to test claims about where the world is heading; things like "AI is going to disrupt the labour market" or "the current El Niño event will lead to higher food prices" salmonofdata.com 000 0
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026It's striking how much schools in London have improved since 2009. The English regions have more or less stayed still, which is impressive given significant declines elsewhere. Scotland, Wales and NI are all doing very poorly by comparison. 031 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026A similar result for pupils in Scotland - the higher the use of AI in school, the lower the results for Reading, Maths and Science. 110 1
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026This year's PISA survey asked questions on AI use at school and the results are clear: increased AI use in school is associated with lower scores. 124 4
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026The decline in PISA scores in Northern Ireland is almost entirely attributable to grammar schools. Scores in secondary schools are broadly unchanged since 2009, whilst scores at grammar schools are down an average of 40 points; equivalent to two years of education. 030 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Why are the devolved administrations failing so badly at education? 010 1
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 08/08/2026Walking around Belfast with a pint of Beamish is a 10/10 experience, would recommend 1122 12
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/07/2026It's not August yet, and already 2026 has tied 1976 for the number of days where the weather station at Heathrow was over 32°C and 30°C, and has beaten the record for the number of days over 28°C (which was set last year). 101 1
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026A combined SF/SDLP/Aontú share of 38% with a DUP/UUP/TUV share of 43% seems implausible as well. A 5 point unionist lead in 2027 after a 1 point lead in 2022 would be bizarre. 032 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026It's not even August and already 2026 is the record year for which air conditioning would be required to maintain a safe/pleasant temperature in London. 030 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026It's never been cheaper to run for parliament. 2249 24
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 27/07/2026You'd have to go back to the 90s to find an Assembly election with a SF share as low as this. I am somewhat skeptical. 342 4
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 18/07/2026In my happy place (at the Deutsche Bundesbank explaining the ECB monetary policy target to my doubtlessly fascinated teen sons) 160 6
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026tfw you come at the king and forget to not miss 010 1
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 11/05/2026A good time to be in the wide-angle lens business 120 2
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 28/04/2026The latest population projection for Northern Ireland shows yet another lowering of the expected future birth rate. In the 2014 projection the expected peak population year was 2056; the peak is now expected in 2031. 031 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/04/2026The Millennials are going to be the single largest generational cohort until they start dying off in significant numbers in the 2060s. They'll probably outnumber the post Gen-Alpha cohorts into the 2070s. 100 1
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 25/02/2026The release of ChatGPT is pretty obvious in this chart 010 1
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/02/2026Do the laser eyes signal a predictable pivot to shilling Bitcoin 231 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 19/02/2026I wonder if he still has this shirt, it might have been useful recently 030 3
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 07/02/2026I must say that ski jumping looks like jolly good fun. If I want to give it a go do I need anything else 000 0
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 07/02/2026looks like bridge discourse is back on the menu boys 3164 16
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 25/01/2026A combined nationalist vote share of 38% would be tied with the 2016 Assembly election as the lowest since 1992 in an Assembly or Westminster election. 021 2
Peter Donaghy @peterdonaghy.bsky.social · 25/01/2026From the latest ONS item price quotes data, the price of a kilo of beef mince is up 42% year-on-year to £12. salmonofdata.com/dashboards/u... 000 0
