iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Genuinely drives me nuts that this thing ever got co-opted by the contemporary right given its revolutionary roots.

The Massachusetts Pine Tree Flag.

AN APPEAL TO HEAVEN in block letters above a green pine on a white background

George Pearkes @peark.es · 02/10/2026

This is how CLT FC does the anthem before every match and honestly it’s the only way it should ever be done. Also, obligatory:

3485

George Pearkes @peark.es · 02/10/2026

OATs went bid as hell just before 8:00a and are now flying tighter. ~20 bps of spread narrowing over the last three hours into the weekend.

5 min tick charts of French-German 10y and 2y spreads since September 23

1161

George Pearkes @peark.es · 02/10/2026

Some price relief is coming for diesel buyers. Retail prices lag wholesale prices by 1 1/2 to 2 weeks, suggesting we're headed for $5.75 by mid-month based on what futures are trading at today. That could go further if diesel futures fall more, or reverse...just saying what's currently booked.

Chart of diesel futures (advanced 10 calendar days) and retail diesel prices for the past year

1335

George Pearkes @peark.es · 02/10/2026

Pretty clean miss with downward revisions but steady job growth (~50k 3m avg sounds weak but it’s well above population growth). Wages soft as you’d expect at a lag to last year’s weakening jobs growth. But LFPR ticked up sharply, u6 lower…both good.

02 October 2026
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
90k
Actual:
29k
Prior:
162k
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
--
Actual:
-60k
Prior:
55k
Change in Private Payrolls
United States Period: Sep
Survey:
Actual:
81k
46k
Prior:
127k
Change in Manufact. Payrolls United States Period: Sep
Survey:
10k
Actual:
9k
Prior:
16k
Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg
United States Period: Sep
Survey:
Actual:
--
51k
Prior:
71k
Revised:
133k
Revised:
-
Revised:
89k
Revised:
15k
Revised:
51k
.Ill
•.•.
•lum
.Il.

08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
08:30
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
0.3%
Actual:
0.1%
Prior:
0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
3.1%
Actual:
3.0%
Prior:
3.1%
Average Weekly Hours All Employees
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
34.3
Actual:
34.4
Prior:
34.4
Unemployment Rate
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
4.1%
Actual:
4.2%
Prior:
4.1%
Labor Force Participation Rate
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
61.6%
Actual:
61.8%
Prior:
61.6%
Underemployment Rate
United States
Period: Sep
Survey:
Actual:
7.7%
7.6%
Prior:
7.7%
Revised:
--
Revised:
--
Revised:
--
Revised:
Revised:
--
Revised:
--
••••
••••

4507

George Pearkes @peark.es · 02/10/2026

Barring a couple of massive COVID lockdown-driven swings, Spain just booked its strongest month of job creation in over 20 years.

Chart of Spain registered employment MoM change since 2006

315916

George Pearkes @peark.es · 02/10/2026

*FRANCE BOND RISK PREMIUM RISES TO 150BPS, FIRST TIME SINCE 2012 French financials holding up better than yesterday, for now.

Credit Agricole OHLC stock price for past year

Societe Generale OHLC stock price for past year

BNP Paribas OHLC stock price for past year

1395

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

not really no, they're trading at very low spreads

030

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

German 2s10s, UST 2s, French 2s vs German 2s, EUR HY corporate CDS spreads, Eurozone banks, VIX.

Charts of the above-described market prices for the past year

2180

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

Data center construction spending still ripping too (note: this is just the building, not the chops that go in it)

Chart of data center construction spending $ bn SAAR since 2020

2433

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

ISM Manufacturing misses estimates despite prices paid, new orders, and employment all above forecasts. Stronk cycle.

ISM Manufacturing: Employment for past 10y

ISM Manufacturing: New Orders for past 10y

ISM Manufacturing: Supplier Delivery times for past 10y

1300

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

Revelio's NFP estimate suggests +57k MoM which sounds weak (ADP was +90k for private, consensus is +85k total/+80k private) but it's also their strongest reading since November 2024 and they've WAY undershot official counts (negative prints in five of seven months YTD through July, obviously wrong).

Chart showing Revelio's NFP estimate versus actual since 2021

1131

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

? that stat's wrong I think.

Chart of UST total returns (index level + rate of change, %) since the 1970s

050

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

apnorc.org/wp-content/u...

CUR2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as
president?
CUR3. If don’t know, skipped, or refused in CUR2
If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Donald Trump is
handling his job as president?
CUR3A. If approve in CUR2
Would you say you approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president strongly or do
you approve just somewhat?
CUR3B. If disapprove in CUR2
Would you say you disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president strongly or do
you disapprove just somewhat?
[HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER]
AP-NORC
Approve
NET
Strongly
approve
Somewhat
approve
Lean
toward
approv
-ing
Not
lean
either
way
Disapprove
NET
Lean
toward
disapproving
Somewhat
disapprove
Strongly
disapprove DK
SKP
/REF
09/24-28/2026
(N=2,140)
31 15 15 * * 69 * 18 51 * 1
07/23-27/2026
(N=1,165) 33 16 17 * 1 66 21 18 47 - *
06/11-17/2026
(N=3,040) 37 19 18 * * 62 * 13 48 * 1
05/14-18/2026
(N=1,117) 37 18 19 * * 62 * 14 49 - *
04/16-20/2026
(N=2,596) 33 17 16 * * 67 * 17 49 * *
03/19-23/2026
(N=1,150) 38 18 20 * 1 60 * 12 48 - *
02/05-08/2026
(N=1,156) 36 18 18 * 1 62 1 16 46 - 1
01/08-11/2026
(N=1,203) 40 20 20 * 1 59 * 12 47 - *
12/4-8/2025
(N=1,146)
36 18 18 * 1 61 * 15 47 - 1
11/6-10/2025
(N=1,143)
36 18 17 * 1 62 - 13 49 - 1
10/09-13/2025
(N=1,289) 37 19 18 1 1 61 * 17 43 - 1
09/11-15/2025
(N=1,183) 39 21 18 * 1 60 * 18 42 - 1
08/21-25/2025
(N=1,182) 45 25 19 * 2 53 * 13 40 - *

109021

George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026

Yes! Updated data from the IRS etc. www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...

NIPA Revisions: Components Detail and Major Source Data and Conceptual Changes Incorporated, 2021–2025
[Billions of dollars]
Line "Revised
Level" Revision in Level Major source data and conceptual changes incorporated1
2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Net interest and miscellaneous payments 613.4 4.7 1.0 281.0 401.7 470.6 See individual entries for monetary interest, lines 428-429, and imputed interest, lines 430 and 438, below.
Net interest 582.9 4.7 1.0 281.4 402.4 471.5
Domestic business 656.8 4.8 1.2 281.0 405.1 ...
Monetary interest paid 4,112.3 0.6 0.5 534.5 630.7 ... For 2024 and 2025, BEA judgmental extrapolations of 2023 SOI data informed by Compustat interest expense applied to corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships. For 2023, new SOI data for corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships. For other years, previously incorporated SOI data for corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships.
Less: Monetary interest received 4,606.7 -0.1 0.5 261.5 251.9 ... For 2024 and 2025, BEA judgmental extrapolations of 2023 SOI data informed by FDIC data on total interest income applied to corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships. For 2023, new SOI data for corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships. For other years, previously incorporated SOI data for corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships.
Imputed interest paid, depositor, insurance, and pension services 1,334.1 3.9 -3.8 14.9 55.2 ...
Financial 1,325.6 3.9 -3.8 9.2 35.4 ...
Banks, credit agencies, and investment companies 384.6 6.7 -2.4 -1.8 -5.7 ... For most recent year, new data on mutual fund net assets, FRB Call Report/Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council balances and income data. Fo…

040

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

Como 1907’s head of retail is somewhat implausibly an American Wayfair alum. Pretty cool!

1302

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

One notable upward revision was business interest costs (with some other stuff thrown in but this is mostly interest).

Chart of interest + miscellaneous business payments for past 5 years

0111

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

Paradoxically, despite *downward* revisions to corporate profits, labor share (my preferred measure is "Rich's Ratio", named after former FOMC member Rich Clarida) was actually revised lower too.

3202

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

NIPA revisions took a hatchet to corporate margins. Gross domestic income revised UP, pre-tax corporate profits revised DOWN -> 50 bps lower margins for Q2 '26. Note: these are still VERY high historically but now look a lot less so.

Chart showing quarterly pre-tax corporate profit margins % gross domestic income since Q2 2021.

2302

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

Y'all aren't going to believe this but it happened again. alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=...

Chart of revisions higher for the savings rate based on 2026 annual benchmark revisions for GDP/Personal Income & Savings

3553

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

Nonsense, that's just not true.

10y chart showing 3m rolling purchases of USTs by all foreign investors.

150

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

The second one is easy, Trump hates high rates because he's a real estate guy not an actual Economy Knower. Like c'mon lmfao. Second one is nuanced. Sure, bid-covers have slid a bit, but they're not historically abnormal in the slightest. Meanwhile dealer takedowns are historically very low.

Bid-to-cover ratio, every 10y UST auction for the past 20 y

Primary dealer takedown % of total auction, every 10y UST auction for the past 20 y

250

George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.

September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield

Term Premium

-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.

1814622

George Pearkes @peark.es · 29/09/2026

Finished a project today: a regularly-updated G10 macro monitor covering central banks across the US, Eurozone, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. One-shot update with Python, which delights me. media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026...

Information dense screenshot of US macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

Information dense screenshot of Eurozone macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

Information dense screenshot of Japan macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

5667

George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026

Here's my current session, which I've been plugging away at throughout the day. This is a huge range of stuff: writing python, pinging the Bloomberg API for stuff, breaking stuff on central bank websites, formatting Excel and PowerPoint files, etc. A one-off chart is...nothing.

Session

Total cost: $100.43
Total duration (API): 3h 26m 6s
Total duration (wall): 8h 31m 12s
Total code changes: 5250 lines added, 644 lines removed
Usage by model:
claude-haiku-4-5: 303.3k input, 15.6k output, 343.0k cache read, 48.0k cache write, 8 web search ($0.56)
claude-opus-5-5: 8.1k input, 106.9k output, 34.7m cache read, 574.8k cache write ($13.70)
claude-sonnet-5: 305.6k input, 747.8k output, 343.3m cache read, 3.8m cache write ($86.17)
Prompt cache (main): 144 requests · 98% of input tokens from cache · 2 misses (last 3h 29m 43s ago — likely cause: earlier messages changed, 220.7k tokens re-cached) · cold — idle 1h 6m 2s, next turn re-caches ~384.0k tokens

280

George Pearkes @peark.es · 28/09/2026

And people say bonds are boring

Price chart of RAGB 0.85 06/30/2120 since issuance.

8807

George Pearkes @peark.es · 27/09/2026

Butterfly knowers: are these monarchs

Orange and black butterflies on a bush with purple flowers

15622

George Pearkes @peark.es · 25/09/2026

Lotta crazy bond market charts out there but this one takes the cake for me. 30y TIPS pay 3.25% above inflation for 30y. Pretty remarkable.

Chart of 30y TIPS yields since inception (2004)

11699

George Pearkes @peark.es · 25/09/2026

Only Trump could celebrate a midterms loss by escaping to China

2128326

George Pearkes @peark.es · 25/09/2026

As rates have risen, the options market has *narrowed* the distribution of outcomes (thinner tails) rather than *widening* it. This STIRs selloff is more about generic hawkishness than some sort of higher uncertainty, at least from the perspective of short-term rate options markets.

Chart showing the rate implied by FFJ7 (average Fed Funds rate for April, 2027) and the options distribution % of outcomes falling within 50 bps of the mean outcome.

2232

George Pearkes @peark.es · 25/09/2026

Eurozone real deposit liquidity has slowed, a possible warning sign for cyclical growth. They've diverged before, with the two upside divergences starting in 2011 (ended w/ Eurozone sovereign crisis) and 2017. The current backdrop of global cyclical acceleration suggests the latter is the right comp