iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Yeah, Japanese yields going up! The neutral rate estimate is mostly market derived. See the notes slide.

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Finished a project today: a regularly-updated G10 macro monitor covering central banks across the US, Eurozone, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. One-shot update with Python, which delights me. media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026...

Information dense screenshot of US macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

Information dense screenshot of Eurozone macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

Information dense screenshot of Japan macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

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An Alaskan named Moose? Apt.

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nah they've been working on this for a while

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 8h

the voters of Texas yearn to compete with Alaska in the race to sell LNG...in Nebraska they're saying "please, just some Alaskan LNG exports...it's all we need" while Mainers are cheering at the news of a new megaproject. *TRUMP TO UNVEIL $54 BILLION ALASKA LNG PLAN AMID MIDTERM WOES

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I have...no earthly idea what this means *TRUMP: AI FIRMS VIEW DOCUMENT AS A SEPARATE CONSTITUTION

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Reposted by George Pearkes

Stephen Judkins @stephenjudkins.bsky.social · 9h

Absolutely this. Also the bizarre implication that Democrats could have just designed Trump-proof or SCOTUS-proof laws or institutions, like if they had "codified Roe v Wade". It doesn't work like that! If you can build it, someone else can tear it down!

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 9h

I resisted a livermush-based riff.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 9h

Fellas y'all are cooked more thoroughly than a hog that's just spent the whole night on a smoker soaking up vinegar and spice, take a cracklin' on the way out the door and we'll see you again for a repeat in two years.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 9h

"Doubts" they say. "Doubts".

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ashley (ravens 2-1) 🌹 @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 9h

Rodneyse is shakened

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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 10h

Incredible, Democrats have officially hit a 10 point lead on the generic ballot

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 10h

Dems need to win PA by around 9 points to flip its Senate (~D+11 nationally). In that situation, they likely also take the state legislatures of WI, MI, AZ and NV Gov. Dems would have the votes to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact over the line and eliminate the Electoral College.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 10h

Basically OpenAI decided not to release on their own, this wasn't eg the White House telling them they couldn't. now, whether it was because of safety issues in fact or for some other reason, I have no idea, just saying there wasn't an outside restriction.

ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Reposted by George Pearkes

Here are some extracts that give you a flavour of the authors interpretation: the young lost out to the olds in the cohort dynamics. This is basically true! As true in the workforce as it has been in politics.

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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Of course you can argue this is good but I am merely here to tell you that the huge relative economic decline of young men did actually happen. And it happened primarily due to population aging and slowing economic growth.

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ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

This paper is interesting in tracing how the gender pay gap is constructed. In the process it accidentally produces the best empirical account I have seen of young men’s fortunes changing. Let’s start with these graphs. Contra @mattbruenig.bsky.social you can see this decline from 1970 -2005 ish.

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I think I would moderate the hate for TIPS ITT. They have all sorts of goofy mechanics and illiquidity issues, but there's also information content. So think of them as a high beta, positioning-exaggerated signal rather than a clean one, and handicap but don't discount entirely.

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30y yields highest since 2002

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the reason it's interesting is because the Chinese government is managing an unholy enormous property bubble unwind. doing that follows a pretty consistent, proscribed path. the further down the path you get, the closer to the end. and that obviously has implications for the rest of the global econ

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christ you're dense, I'm not even going to bother engaging anymore. Best of luck getting those shoes tied later today.

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misread it - thought it said Anthropic. In my defense I was in between an 8 mile (6 @ lactate threshold) run and leg day.

George Pearkes @peark.es · 14h

Don’t have time rn but if you DM me to remind me this afternoon I’ll sketch something out.