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Fernando Meireles

@meirelesff.bsky.social
829 followers 166 following 49 posts

Professor of political science at IESP-UERJ. Brazilian politics.

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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
O @nexojornal.bsky.social fez uma excelente visualização espacial que ajuda a explicar como percepção de muitas pessoas, como na Zona do Sul do Rio, de que havia um mar vermelho de eleitores do Lula: eram realmente bolhas. t.co/niuXO98oPF
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Rafael H. M. Pereira 🚡 Urban Demographics @urbandemog.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
📢 For those working with Brazilian Census data, some good news: the R package censobr has been updated. Version v1.0.0 is now available on CRAN. ipea.github.io/censobr/inde... This release includes:
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Thiago Krause @thiagokrause.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
This is a very good - and disheartening- essay. I disdained exams and in-class writing for my first 12 years of teaching, but now I’m forced to resort to them, particularly in GenEd classes. I still assign take-home research essays in advanced classes for History majors/minors, though.
insidehighered.com
The Cures for AI Are Killing the Humanities (opinion)
The retreat from take-home essays jeopardizes the future of the humanities.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Alarmante. IA tem todo um potencial de alavancar pesquisa, mas dentro da academia ainda precisam ser criados melhores incentivos pra evitar delegação de autoria pura e simples.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The most recent version of the paper -- that is different in many ways from the previous version we presented -- can be found here: osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm honored (and a bit relieved) to share the news that @nataliasbueno.bsky.social, @marcustorres.bsky.social, and I won the Best Paper Award from the @apsa.bsky.social Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations Section. Huge thanks to my co-authors Natália and Marcus!
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Arndt Leininger @aleininger.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
🧵 Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social, with @tswalve.bsky.social "What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success" Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Em breve, estarão abertas as inscrições para o doutorado em Ciência Política do IESP-UERJ -- vale mencionar que, nos últimos anos, temos tido bolsas para todo mundo, fora as inúmeras oportunidades remuneradas nos diferentes núcleos da casa. Mais informações: iesp.uerj.br/selecao-de-d...
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Delighted to share that "Electoral results affect beliefs about the past: Evidence from Chile.", a paper with @nicolasajz.bsky.social and Pato Rodriguez, has just been published in the *Journal of Public Economics*. Open access to the paper here: doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Saxony-Anhalt went to the polls, with the AfD falling just short of a majority. Here are some takeaways based on the preliminary results across all 218 municipalities and local socioeconomic characteristics. A thread 🧵(1 /n) Full analysis + write-up: juliuskoelzer.de/saxony-anhal...
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Com eleições pela frente na Alemanha, a AfD em breve pode ter um estado alemão para ser sua vitrine. Se for isso mesmo, será um dos maiores movimentos na política alemã em muitos, muitos anos. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
theatlantic.com
The German Far Right Is Poised for a Breakthrough
The AfD could do something next month that would mark a first in the country’s postwar history.
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Brazil's 1988 constitution enabled the creation of over 1,300 new municipalities as districts petitioned to separate from the towns that governed them. These splits produced lasting gains in local economic activity, say researchers at LSE and Monash. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...
aeaweb.org
Devolving power to local governments
Greater political autonomy yielded lasting economic gains in Brazilian communities.
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Trump's tariffs have reduced tourism to the U.S. a lot. They've led to $1 Billion in lost revenue per month.
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American Statistical Association History of Statistics @hos-asa.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Few statisticians know that Frank Yates, pioneer of experimental design, is responsible for the annoying practice of indicating 3 tiers of statistical significance by stars (*p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001). He soon regretted it and “vehemently opposed its unthinking use”. And here we are.
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Chris Adams @chrisadamsecon.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
It's fine! www.wsj.com/health/welln...
wsj.com
Five Cups of Coffee a Day Is Fine for Most Adults, Heart Association Says
The research has been mixed but the association says evidence of coffee’s safety and even benefits has been growing over time.
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "Conditioning Out the Poor? Consumption Inequality and the Design of Cash Transfer Programs" by Santosh Anagol, Thomas Fujiwara, and Martin Navarrete.
aeaweb.org
Conditioning Out the Poor? Consumption Inequality and the Design of Cash Transfer Programs
(Forthcoming Article) - Conditionality can exclude poor households from receiving transfers. Reanalyzing five randomized evaluations of conditional cash transfers (CCTs), we find that 9–37 percent of eligible recipients fail to meet conditions, and they typically have lower baseline consumption. We assess the welfare implications of budget-neutral shifts from CCTs to unconditional cash transfers. Conditionality exacerbating inequality among eligible recipients can be quantitatively important for welfare impacts. We quantify how large conditionality-induced human capital gains must be for the welfare benefits of CCTs to outweigh the inequality costs generated by conditionality.
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Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I'm very happy to share that my first dissertation paper is now online in Party Politics (🔓)! I examine how political appointments (patronage) relate to coalition support in multiparty presidential systems, using roll-call data from Brazil's Chamber of Deputies (2003-2018). doi.org/10.1177/1354...
journals.sagepub.com
Bureaucratic appointments and coalition support in presidential systems – An analysis of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies - Koichi Osamura, 2026
How does the provision of political appointments influence coalition support in multiparty presidential systems? While the importance of cabinet portfolios for ...
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Lara Mesquita @laramesquita.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Sistema de governo (parlamentarismo), sistema eleitoral (voto distrital) e regras partidos importam. Mas não são garantias de governabilidade, nem blindam governos contra crises. Na coluna de hoje, discuto as lições da saída de Starmer e da instabilidade britânica desde o Brexit. folha.com/vzlm6ojb
folha.com
Opinião - Lara Mesquita: As lições da crise britânica e os limites da engenharia política
Primeiro-ministro britânico deixa o cargo menos de dois anos após vitória trabalhista de 2024
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Heather Randell @heatherrandell.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
The death spiral of reading is one of my biggest concerns these days in education. Students don't do the reading, so we gradually assign less and less in hopes that they actually do it. Smartphones have destroyed attention spans (myself included), and with AI, all bets are off.
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Rory Truex @rorytruex.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
We are entering a new phase in universities where degrees will be handed out, and it may well not be possible to know if the student did any work at all. Full post here: rorytruex.substack.com/p/will-ai-br...
rorytruex.substack.com
Will AI Break the University?
Field Notes from a Tough Year
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Algo curioso sobre os scores das seleções que o Nate Silver divulgou pra essa Copa é que o Brasil aparece nitidamente em tendência declinante. Noruega e Senegal é que parecem na tendência contrária. www.natesilver.net/p/pele-inter...
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Há algum tempo já começou a se abrir uma distância ideológica entre homens e mulheres jovens em vários países. Parece que, nos EUA, essa diferença está virando um fosso entre adolescentes que em breve vão entrar na idade adulta: www.theatlantic.com/family/2026/...
theatlantic.com
The Great Gen Z Dividing Line
The older ones and the younger ones may be voting in different ways.
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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Chart showing the lading party by ward % age 50 or older and % with a managerial or professional occupation. Between 2021 and 2024 Labour won wards with a majority of young or working-class voters, in 2026 the Greens won younger wards while Reform UK won older working class wards
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 04/05/2026
Nicolás who? From @DiarioTalCual, the number of times each month that Delcy Rodríguez's public statements have mentioned Maduro's name. talcualdigital.com/delcy-rodrig...
January 86 mentions
February 15
March 7
April 8
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Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 27/04/2026
Since ChatGPT came online in late 2022, grant application numbers across 12 UK and EU funding bodies have increased by *57%*. For MSCA fellowships the number is *+142%*. I do believe that what we’re doing is insane and that we need to stop doing it IMMEDIATELY. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Could agentic AI topple grant-funding systems?
Funders must take action before an increase in submission of high-quality proposals written using AI models makes it impossible to sort the wheat from the chaff.
By Geraint Rees & James Wilsdon
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Rafael H. M. Pereira 🚡 Urban Demographics @urbandemog.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
📢If you use #geobr to access spatial data of Brazil in #rstats, we'll be upgrading to v2.0.0 in a few weeks This version includes: - a few breaking changes💔 - several data fixes + updates🔨 - new data sets!💕 - integration with gearrow⏩ Please test the dev version, see below👇
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PEX-Network @pex-network.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
We're pleased to share the new article by our coordinator, @magna-inacio.bsky.social, with @meirelesff.bsky.social and Rosiene Guerra, just published in @lsqjournal.bsky.social. A new strategy to estimate portfolio salience based on legislators’ behavior. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Ministries That We Want: Legislative Behavior and Signaling of Portfolio Salience
Measuring the value of cabinet portfolios is a fundamental task in the study of coalition politics. Yet existing measures are often static, have limited coverage, or assume that all parties value por...
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Magna Inacio @magna-inacio.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
I’m excited to share that our co-authored article with Fernando Meireles and Rosiene Guerra in @lsqjournal.bsky.social is out! We introduce a dynamic Bayesian framework that estimates portfolio salience based on legislators’ behavior. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Ministries That We Want: Legislative Behavior and Signaling of Portfolio Salience
Measuring the value of cabinet portfolios is a fundamental task in the study of coalition politics. Yet existing measures are often static, have limited coverage, or assume that all parties value por...
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
We hope this framework can be useful for others, but our main point is that we can learn a lot about the salience of portfolios by looking at what politicians actually do. Feedback and suggestions are welcome!
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
This is a challenging case because individual legislators in Denmark do not have the same degree of freedom to use legislative tools to signal their preferences as in Brazil. Even so, the model still provides reasonable estimates using this widely used data source.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
To make it easier for other researchers to use our model, we also implement an analysis of Denmark using Comparative Agendas Project data, and we provide full, documented code in this Github repository: github.com/meirelesff/p...
github.com
GitHub - meirelesff/portfolio_salience_denmark: Application of the Bayesian two-latent portfolio salience measurement model to Denmark
Application of the Bayesian two-latent portfolio salience measurement model to Denmark - meirelesff/portfolio_salience_denmark
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Using yearly data from 2002 to 2020, we apply this to Brazil and estimate salience, parties' preferences, and that shift in behavior for each portfolio. Results: Health, Economy, and Education are the most salient portfolios, and Health clearly gets a boost during the pandemic
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
We estimate salience with an IRT Bayesian model. Our model breaks this down into three parts: - The baseline importance of a ministry - The unique value specific parties attach to a portfolio - The shift in behavior that occurs simply because a party holds a specific portfolio
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
The idea is simple: If legislators frequently mention a portfolio in speeches, direct more motions and legislative recommendations to it, sponsor more bills about it, etc., we can infer that this portfolio is salient.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
We introduce a Bayesian model to measure the salience of cabinet portfolios by analyzing legislators' actual behaviors rather than expert surveys or proxies. How does that work? Our key contribution is to show that legislators indirectly reveal the salience of portfolios through their behaviors.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Our paper on measuring portfolio salience is out at the @lsqjournal.bsky.social! t.co/1QZOkoXwoV
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Como sempre, importante a ressalva: impor um classificação binária de sexo biológico a pessoas é uma simplificação que pode ter consequências a depender do uso. O ideal é usar o genderBR apenas como um estimador para populações agregadas, ainda assim em último caso.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Num benchmark com 463.681 nomes de candidatos e candidatas das eleições municipais de 2024, combinando método interno e rede neural para classificar nomes não contidos nos dados do Censo, o pacote consegue quase 99% de acurácia na classificação com cobertura total.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
O pacote, portanto, oferece agora três formas de classificar nomes: dataset interno (dados censitários), rede neural e API do IBGE. Os dois primeiros métodos são geralmente rápidos e classificam milhares de nomes em fração de segundos (gráfico com escala logarítmica).
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Nessa nova versão, o pacote inclui duas grandes novidades: - Incorporação dos dados do Censo de 2022, cobrindo agora 142 mil nomes próprios - Modelo de aprendizado profundo para classificar nomes não contidos nas bases do IBGE
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
A proposta do genderBR é simples: imputar uma classificação binária de sexo -- geralmente atribuída ao nascer em cartórios -- a partir de nomes próprios. Com dados do Censo sobre quais sexos mais usam cada nome próprio único, ele infere sexos.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Acaba de ser atualizado no CRAN o pacote genderBR para R. Basta passar a ele uma sequência de nomes brasileiros e ele faz uma classificação rápida e automatizada de sexo (binário). Aqui há mais detalhes da nova versão estão: fmeireles.com/posts/2026-0...
fmeireles.com
Fernando Meireles, Assistant Professor of Political Science at IESP-UERJ
Classificação de sexo a partir de nomes próprios brasileiros
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Diria que o mesmo se aplica ao Brasil, ainda que por outros caminhos e em outra escala: estar em uma boa universidade ou departamento não é apenas sobre recursos, mas muito sobre redes e aprimoramento de skills sociais. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
What an Ivy League Education Really Gets You
Economists have a new theory of why graduates of top colleges have so much career success.
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YouGov America @today.yougov.com · 26/01/2026
% who say the shooting of Alex Pretti was | wasn't justified U.S. adults 20% | 48% Saw video of shooting 25% | 63% Heard about it; didn't see video 22% | 41% Didn't hear about it or see video 5% | 16% Democrats 4% | 83% Independents 13% | 50% Republicans 44% | 13% today.yougov.com/politics/art...
A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "More Americans say the shooting of Alex Pretti was not justified than say it was justified. Those who have seen video overwhelmingly say it was not justified."

The chart's sub-headline is: "Based on what you know, was the shooting of the man in Minneapolis justified or not justified? (%)."

The chart has the note: "Note: Whether people had seen video of the shooting is based on responses to the question, "Did you see any videos of Border Patrol agents shooting a man in Minneapolis on Saturday?""
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/01/2026
Today I am publishing what I believe to be the most detailed available map of Trump's job approval rating. Powered by over 12,000 interviews for our Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. I hope this generates many stories, and hours wasted exploring data! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
gelliottmorris.com
A very detailed map of Trump's job approval
Explore our new interactive map of Trump's job approval, powered by 12,000 survey interviews conducted in 2025 and 2026
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Marcelo Soares @msoares.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
O @gelliottmorris.com tem razão
gelliottmorris.com
You should quit social media for good
Platforms optimized for engagement warp our politics, erode attention, and harm our wellbeing. Here’s how I minimize time on the (anti‑)social web.
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
🆕 Public R&D and Brazil’s agricultural revolution Today on VoxDev, Ariel Akerman (IDB), Jacob Moscona (MIT), Heitor Pellegrina (Notre Dame Economics) & Karthik Sastry (Princeton Economics) discuss Embrapa's impact on agricultural productivity: ow.ly/ao5150XqXb1
ow.ly
Public R&D and Brazil’s agricultural revolution
It is often argued that returns to R&D are low in developing countries, making imported technologies a better path to growth. Yet technologies designed for frontier nations may not fit local conditions, limiting their productivity gains. This column studies Brazil’s Embrapa, a large public R&D effort to create agricultural innovation suited to Brazil’s ecology. Embrapa shifted research toward local needs and raised agricultural productivity by 110%, far outweighing its costs. Sustained, locally targeted R&D can be a key part of development policy.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
As vagas para o público em geral é de 25 vagas por curso e as inscrições estarão abertas até dia 27 de junho, ou seja, o período de inscrições é de apenas duas semanas. Vagas são preenchidas por ordem de inscrição.
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