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Lucas Novaes

@lmnovaes.bsky.social
1K followers 392 following 101 posts

Associate professor, Insper. Political economy, comparative politics. UC Berkeley grad. www.lucasmnovaes.com

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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Delighted to share that "Electoral results affect beliefs about the past: Evidence from Chile.", a paper with @nicolasajz.bsky.social and Pato Rodriguez, has just been published in the *Journal of Public Economics*. Open access to the paper here: doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
que lama de homepage
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
My first reaction was that this was a parody.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Tuchel:
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Recently accepted by #QJE: “Public Services Under Private Management,” by Coube, Fontes, and Rocha: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
Public Services Under Private Management*
Abstract. Theory predicts that outsourcing public services to the private sector can reduce costs and improve efficiency, but can also induce cost-cutting
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AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug-Trafficking Displacement, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon" by Leila Pereira, Rafael Pucci, and Rodrigo R. Soares.
aeaweb.org
Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug-Trafficking Displacement, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon
(Forthcoming Article) - We study a Force-down/Shoot-down intervention in Brazil that led cocaine traffickers to shift from air to river routes. Using data on cocaine production, homicides, and the network of rivers in the Amazon, we provide evidence that violence increased in municipalities along river routes originating from Andean producing countries after the policy. We also show that, during the same period, violence in these municipalities became more responsive to cocaine production in origin countries. We document an instance of crime displacement over the three-dimensional space, involving sophisticated adaptations from criminals regarding transportation technologies, with dramatic side-effects for local populations.
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darth™️ @darthbluesky.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
remember those other branches of government
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Tiago Ventura @tiagoventura.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🚨New paper alert🚨 What happens when a polarized democracy bans a social media platform? New work with @cbarrie.bsky.social, Molly Roberts, Chris Schwarz, and @jatucker.bsky.social. We study Brazil's 2024 ban on X and find it created what we define as a "partisan sorting ratchet ." 1/
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Vincent Pons @vinpons.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Very happy to share our new paper on “The Global Incumbency Advantage”! 👇👇 We provide the first estimates of the incumbency advantage at the national level for all elections worldwide since 1945. with Raphaël Descamps, Ben Marx and @vincent-rollet.bsky.social. Short 🧵 below (1/n).
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Que manchete bizarra. "Tenho recebido muitos pedidos para esclarecimento embora já tenha publicado nota esclarecendo tudo"?
Manchete da capa da globo.com: Escritório da esposa de Moraes esclarece contrato com Master
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Essa manchete é engraçada porque subentende-se que o Congresso está apreensivo não porque há uma possível rede de corrupção, mas sim porque a rede de corrupção vai se tornar visível.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Analyslop is correct, and there are many like this memo. They all fantasize how AI will disrupt jobs, but they (and contrarians) never make up scenarios about how AI will create new human jobs (as all tech revolutions did) because maybe this time is indeed different?
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Eu pedi pro Claude fazer o mesmo gráfico per capita (estimando mais ou menos os dados absolutos usando o gráfico da Ponte Jornalismo)
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stuart @stuartp.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
the poujahetine
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Forbearance: revoked g1.globo.com/sp/sao-paulo...
g1.globo.com
Ambulante joga no chão frutas apreendidas: 'Para os clientes pegarem' | G1
Homem tem documento para trabalhar na região da Avenida Paulista e alega ter perdido mais de R$ 2 mil. Prefeitura diz que ponto autorizado fica na Alameda Santos e não na Paulista.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
We estimate the impact of coups and top-secret coup authorizations on as-
set prices of partially nationalized multinational companies that stood to ben-
efit from U.S.-backed coups. Stock returns of highly exposed firms reacted to
coup authorizations classified as top-secret. The average cumulative abnormal
return to a coup authorization was 9% over 4 days for a fully nationalized com-
pany, rising to more than 13% over 16 days. Precoup authorizations accounted
for a larger share of stock price increases than the actual coup events them-
selves. There is no effect in the case of the widely publicized, poorly executed
Cuban operations, consistent with abnormal returns to coup authorizations re-
flectingcredibleprivateinformation. Wealsointroducetwonewintuitiveandeasy
to implement nonparametric tests that do not rely on asymptotic justifications.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
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Mike Ryan @mikeryan.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
This … is not good news www.nbclosangeles.com/investigatio...
nbclosangeles.com
2 found dead at Brentwood mansion that belongs to director Rob Reiner
A man and woman were found dead inside a home in Brentwood that records and neighbors tie to director Rob Reiner.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
The dissonance here between text and photo is fantastic
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Artigo meu e do Anderson Frey publicado ontem na Folha: www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2025...
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
My first thought was that the “gentleman” was Bolsonaro, but on twitter, the Brazilian reporter asking the question is skeptical; thinks Trump was referring to someone else. She (Raquel Krähenbühl) followed up with Leavitt the next day, who said she wasn’t aware of any call btw the two.
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Brendel @brendelbored.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
We did it for you Dick Cheney
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
"Part of the footage from officers’ body cameras during the major operation may have been lost due to low battery, says Military Police secretary."
Parte de imagens de câmeras de agentes de megaoperação pode ter se perdido por falta de bateria, diz secretário da PM
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Gruesome details from the massive police operation yesterday in Rio continue to surface: “The [beheaded] body had their fist closed, holding grass.” www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/20...
Um dos corpos estava sem cabeça, que foi trazida dentro de uma sacola. Aos familiares, um dos homens que ajudava na remoção gritou “é um de cabelo vermelho”. As mãos do cadaver estavam fechadas, segurando grama.
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Jorge Peña 🇵🇸 @jorgeapenas.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
📢 Apply to our (2-year) research fellowships at @iast.fr Join a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, transdisciplinary, and indisciplinary group of scholars in Toulouse, walkable/cyclable pink city of chocolatines in the South of France. Deadline: November 15, 2025. www.iast.fr/research-fel...
iast.fr
Research Fellowships
Each year, IAST invites applications for post-doctoral Research Fellowships, which offer candidates an opportunity to devote themselves full-time to their research at the start of their careers. Fello...
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
ah yes powell 2004
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Word of caution: the push to win votes on the pervasive anti-corruption sentiment in Latin America did not go well. OC is different, but likely the Dems would end up carried away by the anti-establishment wave (the PSDB - major national player in Brazil since 1994 is all but gone)
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Jean-François Bonnefon @jfbonnefon.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
It's hiring season at @iast.fr! - 2y research postdoc contract - Full autonomy, you are your own PI - Awesome multidisciplinary environment - All social and behavioral sciences welcome - Seed funding for projects and workshops - Gorgeous city in the south of France www.iast.fr/research-fel...
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
This is incredibly sloppy work. There is absolutely no evidence here that Kimmel's suspension enjoys widespread support: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/19/t...
nytimes.com
How Outrage at Kimmel Grew to a Shout From a Whisper
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 14/09/2025
What sic-fi dystopian movie had this on a news ticker headline? on.ft.com/3InqWsC AI-controlled drone swarms set to transform combat on battlefield
on.ft.com
AI-controlled drone swarms set to transform combat on battlefield
The latest iteration of flying robot warfare, unmanned weapons co-ordinate to overwhelm enemy defences
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
There is a dilemma at the WH right now. Carrying out the threat of retaliation or maintaining the current news cycle?
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
still puzzled
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Comparative Political Studies @cpsjournal.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
(2) "Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence From the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election" by Alexsandros Cavgias, Raphael Corbi, Luis Meloni @luismeloni.bsky.social , and Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
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Elinhas @elinhas.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
O resultado da pesquisa nesse pique:
Caixa de comentários do G1:

Pedro Henrique: comunista não gosta de trabalhar mesmo

Gustavo Scarponi: vai falar que vc gosta?

Pedro Henrique: tb não gosto não
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
In a just-accepted paper at the @thejop.bsky.social , @MelaniCammett, Guadalupe Tuñon, and I examine how campaign finance reforms have unanticipated effects: organized actors gain an edge. In our case, the Universal Kingdom of God Church in Brazil. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Special Interest Trade-Offs: Campaign Finance Reforms and Religious Influence in Politics in Brazil | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
I love how the federal police uncovered russian assets with the bread and butter of social science in Brazil: merging inconsistent datasets.
To find these ghosts, agents began looking for patterns in millions of birth records, passports, driver’s licenses and social security numbers.

Some of that could be automated, but not all Brazilian databases can be easily linked and searched digitally. Much of it had to be done by hand.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Why is Brazil's national squad so bad? Are we just better at retaining talent? (These are Libertadores champions.)
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Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science @skytteprize.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Herbert P. Kitschelt is the winner of the 2025 Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science. 🏆 He is awarded the prize for " having increased knowledge of the functioning of democratic party systems with exquisite theoretical acuity and impressive empirical breadth and depth."
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lauren @lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com · 15/04/2025
guy who misses "old san francisco" before it "sold out" but is clearly just remembering the car chase sequence from The Rock
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
maybe i should had been a financial analyst after all bsky.app/profile/bert...
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Ryan Broderick @ryanhatesthis.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
So from my uniquely weird perspective after living in the UK through Brexit, being in India during Modi's demonetization, and living in Brazil when the real tanked during the Bolsonaro administration, I can confidentally say that Americans do not and can not understand how bad this is going to be.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
I am no financial analyst but when DJT sees this swing over a rumor, he will make the rumor true.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
	The surprise, and the alarming bit, is that they reversed course and fell pretty heavily on Friday afternoon. This suggests investors are dumping what they can sell, not necessarily what they want to sell, to try to plug leaks elsewhere in their portfolios. The same goes for gold. Everyone loves gold in a crisis. But its price fell sharply in the final hours of last week — another sign that investors are selling the good stuff to make up for the horror show elsewhere.

When risky assets fall in price, that’s one thing. But when the safe assets take a hit, you really are in trouble. That was the turning point in the Covid crisis five years ago — the abrupt slide in Treasuries then was on a much bigger scale than what we have seen in 2025 (so far). But when it happened, it was clear that intervention was required.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

	Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
	https://www.ft.com/content/dd2e71bf-e5f5-4ab6-9a54-a243d1206df2

	However, Cook, who risked the ire of Apple staff by attending Trump’s inauguration and visiting the president at the White House, has not so far obtained any exemption from the new tariffs.
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
I am not sure if back in 1992 we were calling the autogolpe in Peru a “constitutional crisis” but I am sure this is not another example of American exceptionalism.
Nyt headline: “defiance and threats in deportation case renew fear of constitutional crisis”
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riding hell for leather @drpepsi.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
I think of this whenever some conservative finds some supposedly wacky research topic that government grants pay for
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Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
it reads like a parody.
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zeynep tufekci @zey.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Gift link. The actual story of the shackled people being deported without even being told where they were being taken — maybe to countries where they’d face torture or death — while their terrified children cried.😢 The White House posted that pic with “ASMR” tag. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/w...
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Rafael Capanema @rafaelcapanema.com · 20/02/2025
de longe a coisa mais engraçada que eu li nos últimos 39 anos
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