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Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug-Trafficking Displacement, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon
(Forthcoming Article) - We study a Force-down/Shoot-down intervention in Brazil that led cocaine traffickers to
shift from air to river routes. Using data on cocaine production, homicides, and the network
of rivers in the Amazon, we provide evidence that violence increased in municipalities along
river routes originating from Andean producing countries after the policy. We also show
that, during the same period, violence in these municipalities became more responsive to cocaine
production in origin countries. We document an instance of crime displacement over
the three-dimensional space, involving sophisticated adaptations from criminals regarding
transportation technologies, with dramatic side-effects for local populations.