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Fernando Meireles

@meirelesff.bsky.social
829 followers 166 following 48 posts

Professor of political science at IESP-UERJ. Brazilian politics.

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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Rafael H. M. Pereira 🚡 Urban Demographics @urbandemog.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
📢 For those working with Brazilian Census data, some good news: the R package censobr has been updated. Version v1.0.0 is now available on CRAN. ipea.github.io/censobr/inde... This release includes:
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Thiago Krause @thiagokrause.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
This is a very good - and disheartening- essay. I disdained exams and in-class writing for my first 12 years of teaching, but now I’m forced to resort to them, particularly in GenEd classes. I still assign take-home research essays in advanced classes for History majors/minors, though.
insidehighered.com
The Cures for AI Are Killing the Humanities (opinion)
The retreat from take-home essays jeopardizes the future of the humanities.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Alarmante. IA tem todo um potencial de alavancar pesquisa, mas dentro da academia ainda precisam ser criados melhores incentivos pra evitar delegação de autoria pura e simples.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm honored (and a bit relieved) to share the news that @nataliasbueno.bsky.social, @marcustorres.bsky.social, and I won the Best Paper Award from the @apsa.bsky.social Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations Section. Huge thanks to my co-authors Natália and Marcus!
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Arndt Leininger @aleininger.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
🧵 Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social, with @tswalve.bsky.social "What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success" Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Em breve, estarão abertas as inscrições para o doutorado em Ciência Política do IESP-UERJ -- vale mencionar que, nos últimos anos, temos tido bolsas para todo mundo, fora as inúmeras oportunidades remuneradas nos diferentes núcleos da casa. Mais informações: iesp.uerj.br/selecao-de-d...
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Delighted to share that "Electoral results affect beliefs about the past: Evidence from Chile.", a paper with @nicolasajz.bsky.social and Pato Rodriguez, has just been published in the *Journal of Public Economics*. Open access to the paper here: doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Saxony-Anhalt went to the polls, with the AfD falling just short of a majority. Here are some takeaways based on the preliminary results across all 218 municipalities and local socioeconomic characteristics. A thread 🧵(1 /n) Full analysis + write-up: juliuskoelzer.de/saxony-anhal...
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Com eleições pela frente na Alemanha, a AfD em breve pode ter um estado alemão para ser sua vitrine. Se for isso mesmo, será um dos maiores movimentos na política alemã em muitos, muitos anos. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
theatlantic.com
The German Far Right Is Poised for a Breakthrough
The AfD could do something next month that would mark a first in the country’s postwar history.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Brazil's 1988 constitution enabled the creation of over 1,300 new municipalities as districts petitioned to separate from the towns that governed them. These splits produced lasting gains in local economic activity, say researchers at LSE and Monash. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...
aeaweb.org
Devolving power to local governments
Greater political autonomy yielded lasting economic gains in Brazilian communities.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Trump's tariffs have reduced tourism to the U.S. a lot. They've led to $1 Billion in lost revenue per month.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
American Statistical Association History of Statistics @hos-asa.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Few statisticians know that Frank Yates, pioneer of experimental design, is responsible for the annoying practice of indicating 3 tiers of statistical significance by stars (*p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001). He soon regretted it and “vehemently opposed its unthinking use”. And here we are.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Chris Adams @chrisadamsecon.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
It's fine! www.wsj.com/health/welln...
wsj.com
Five Cups of Coffee a Day Is Fine for Most Adults, Heart Association Says
The research has been mixed but the association says evidence of coffee’s safety and even benefits has been growing over time.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "Conditioning Out the Poor? Consumption Inequality and the Design of Cash Transfer Programs" by Santosh Anagol, Thomas Fujiwara, and Martin Navarrete.
aeaweb.org
Conditioning Out the Poor? Consumption Inequality and the Design of Cash Transfer Programs
(Forthcoming Article) - Conditionality can exclude poor households from receiving transfers. Reanalyzing five randomized evaluations of conditional cash transfers (CCTs), we find that 9–37 percent of eligible recipients fail to meet conditions, and they typically have lower baseline consumption. We assess the welfare implications of budget-neutral shifts from CCTs to unconditional cash transfers. Conditionality exacerbating inequality among eligible recipients can be quantitatively important for welfare impacts. We quantify how large conditionality-induced human capital gains must be for the welfare benefits of CCTs to outweigh the inequality costs generated by conditionality.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Koichi Osamura @koichiosamura.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
I'm very happy to share that my first dissertation paper is now online in Party Politics (🔓)! I examine how political appointments (patronage) relate to coalition support in multiparty presidential systems, using roll-call data from Brazil's Chamber of Deputies (2003-2018). doi.org/10.1177/1354...
journals.sagepub.com
Bureaucratic appointments and coalition support in presidential systems – An analysis of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies - Koichi Osamura, 2026
How does the provision of political appointments influence coalition support in multiparty presidential systems? While the importance of cabinet portfolios for ...
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Lara Mesquita @laramesquita.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Sistema de governo (parlamentarismo), sistema eleitoral (voto distrital) e regras partidos importam. Mas não são garantias de governabilidade, nem blindam governos contra crises. Na coluna de hoje, discuto as lições da saída de Starmer e da instabilidade britânica desde o Brexit. folha.com/vzlm6ojb
folha.com
Opinião - Lara Mesquita: As lições da crise britânica e os limites da engenharia política
Primeiro-ministro britânico deixa o cargo menos de dois anos após vitória trabalhista de 2024
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Heather Randell @heatherrandell.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
The death spiral of reading is one of my biggest concerns these days in education. Students don't do the reading, so we gradually assign less and less in hopes that they actually do it. Smartphones have destroyed attention spans (myself included), and with AI, all bets are off.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Rory Truex @rorytruex.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
We are entering a new phase in universities where degrees will be handed out, and it may well not be possible to know if the student did any work at all. Full post here: rorytruex.substack.com/p/will-ai-br...
rorytruex.substack.com
Will AI Break the University?
Field Notes from a Tough Year
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Algo curioso sobre os scores das seleções que o Nate Silver divulgou pra essa Copa é que o Brasil aparece nitidamente em tendência declinante. Noruega e Senegal é que parecem na tendência contrária. www.natesilver.net/p/pele-inter...
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Há algum tempo já começou a se abrir uma distância ideológica entre homens e mulheres jovens em vários países. Parece que, nos EUA, essa diferença está virando um fosso entre adolescentes que em breve vão entrar na idade adulta: www.theatlantic.com/family/2026/...
theatlantic.com
The Great Gen Z Dividing Line
The older ones and the younger ones may be voting in different ways.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Chart showing the lading party by ward % age 50 or older and % with a managerial or professional occupation. Between 2021 and 2024 Labour won wards with a majority of young or working-class voters, in 2026 the Greens won younger wards while Reform UK won older working class wards
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 04/05/2026
Nicolás who? From @DiarioTalCual, the number of times each month that Delcy Rodríguez's public statements have mentioned Maduro's name. talcualdigital.com/delcy-rodrig...
January 86 mentions
February 15
March 7
April 8
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 27/04/2026
Since ChatGPT came online in late 2022, grant application numbers across 12 UK and EU funding bodies have increased by *57%*. For MSCA fellowships the number is *+142%*. I do believe that what we’re doing is insane and that we need to stop doing it IMMEDIATELY. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Could agentic AI topple grant-funding systems?
Funders must take action before an increase in submission of high-quality proposals written using AI models makes it impossible to sort the wheat from the chaff.
By Geraint Rees & James Wilsdon
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Rafael H. M. Pereira 🚡 Urban Demographics @urbandemog.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
📢If you use #geobr to access spatial data of Brazil in #rstats, we'll be upgrading to v2.0.0 in a few weeks This version includes: - a few breaking changes💔 - several data fixes + updates🔨 - new data sets!💕 - integration with gearrow⏩ Please test the dev version, see below👇
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PEX-Network @pex-network.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
We're pleased to share the new article by our coordinator, @magna-inacio.bsky.social, with @meirelesff.bsky.social and Rosiene Guerra, just published in @lsqjournal.bsky.social. A new strategy to estimate portfolio salience based on legislators’ behavior. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Ministries That We Want: Legislative Behavior and Signaling of Portfolio Salience
Measuring the value of cabinet portfolios is a fundamental task in the study of coalition politics. Yet existing measures are often static, have limited coverage, or assume that all parties value por...
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
Magna Inacio @magna-inacio.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
I’m excited to share that our co-authored article with Fernando Meireles and Rosiene Guerra in @lsqjournal.bsky.social is out! We introduce a dynamic Bayesian framework that estimates portfolio salience based on legislators’ behavior. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Ministries That We Want: Legislative Behavior and Signaling of Portfolio Salience
Measuring the value of cabinet portfolios is a fundamental task in the study of coalition politics. Yet existing measures are often static, have limited coverage, or assume that all parties value por...
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Our paper on measuring portfolio salience is out at the @lsqjournal.bsky.social! t.co/1QZOkoXwoV
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Acaba de ser atualizado no CRAN o pacote genderBR para R. Basta passar a ele uma sequência de nomes brasileiros e ele faz uma classificação rápida e automatizada de sexo (binário). Aqui há mais detalhes da nova versão estão: fmeireles.com/posts/2026-0...
fmeireles.com
Fernando Meireles, Assistant Professor of Political Science at IESP-UERJ
Classificação de sexo a partir de nomes próprios brasileiros
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Diria que o mesmo se aplica ao Brasil, ainda que por outros caminhos e em outra escala: estar em uma boa universidade ou departamento não é apenas sobre recursos, mas muito sobre redes e aprimoramento de skills sociais. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
What an Ivy League Education Really Gets You
Economists have a new theory of why graduates of top colleges have so much career success.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
YouGov America @today.yougov.com · 26/01/2026
% who say the shooting of Alex Pretti was | wasn't justified U.S. adults 20% | 48% Saw video of shooting 25% | 63% Heard about it; didn't see video 22% | 41% Didn't hear about it or see video 5% | 16% Democrats 4% | 83% Independents 13% | 50% Republicans 44% | 13% today.yougov.com/politics/art...
A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "More Americans say the shooting of Alex Pretti was not justified than say it was justified. Those who have seen video overwhelmingly say it was not justified."

The chart's sub-headline is: "Based on what you know, was the shooting of the man in Minneapolis justified or not justified? (%)."

The chart has the note: "Note: Whether people had seen video of the shooting is based on responses to the question, "Did you see any videos of Border Patrol agents shooting a man in Minneapolis on Saturday?""
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/01/2026
Today I am publishing what I believe to be the most detailed available map of Trump's job approval rating. Powered by over 12,000 interviews for our Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. I hope this generates many stories, and hours wasted exploring data! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...
gelliottmorris.com
A very detailed map of Trump's job approval
Explore our new interactive map of Trump's job approval, powered by 12,000 survey interviews conducted in 2025 and 2026
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Marcelo Soares @msoares.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
O @gelliottmorris.com tem razão
gelliottmorris.com
You should quit social media for good
Platforms optimized for engagement warp our politics, erode attention, and harm our wellbeing. Here’s how I minimize time on the (anti‑)social web.
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Reposted by Fernando Meireles
VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
🆕 Public R&D and Brazil’s agricultural revolution Today on VoxDev, Ariel Akerman (IDB), Jacob Moscona (MIT), Heitor Pellegrina (Notre Dame Economics) & Karthik Sastry (Princeton Economics) discuss Embrapa's impact on agricultural productivity: ow.ly/ao5150XqXb1
ow.ly
Public R&D and Brazil’s agricultural revolution
It is often argued that returns to R&D are low in developing countries, making imported technologies a better path to growth. Yet technologies designed for frontier nations may not fit local conditions, limiting their productivity gains. This column studies Brazil’s Embrapa, a large public R&D effort to create agricultural innovation suited to Brazil’s ecology. Embrapa shifted research toward local needs and raised agricultural productivity by 110%, far outweighing its costs. Sustained, locally targeted R&D can be a key part of development policy.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Para quem procura formação complementar em pesquisa, estão abertas as inscrições da 10º Escola de Inverno, iniciativa de formação intensiva em métodos e conceitos em Ciências Sociais que coordeno no IESP-UERJ. O website do evento: inverno.iesp.uerj.br Segue um fio com mais informações.
inverno.iesp.uerj.br
Escola de Inverno em métodos, conceitos e teorias sociais do IESP-UERJ
A Escola de Inverno é o braço de formação intensiva em métodos, conceitos e teorias sociais do IESP-UERJ.
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Folha de S.Paulo @folha.com · 15/06/2025
#opinião 📝 Jairo Nicolau | Partidos brasileiros passam por maior transformação desde o fim da ditadura. Mudanças na legislação eleitoral levaram a uma compactação do sistema partidário
mla.bs
Opinião - Jairo Nicolau: Partidos brasileiros passam por maior transformação desde o fim da ditadura
Mudanças na legislação eleitoral levaram a uma compactação do sistema partidário
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Boa análise do Nate Silver com evidências de que a Kamala muito provavelmente não perdeu a presidência pra Trump em 2024 por conta de abstenção. Resumindo as contas do texto: mudança de voto de Biden (2020) pra Trump (2024) parece ter sid o mais importante.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Compilado de 30 anos de pesquisas de boca de urna nos EUA mostra algo que me parece se encaixar aqui também: os mais pobres estão cada vez mais virando à direita. Lá, em 2024, pela primeira vez, os mais pobres preferiram Republicanos. smokefilledroom.substack.com/p/30-years-o...
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Nos últimos 6 anos, @denissonsilva.com e eu trabalhamos pra por de pé um material de introdução ao R para acadêmicos que rapidamente ensinasse o que a linguagem tem de melhor. 6 anos depois, o resultado acaba de ser publicado: o ebook Usando R. Mais detalhes e cupom de desconto 🧵
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Lara Mesquita @laramesquita.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Excelente material da DW, em inglês, resumindo os resultados da eleição alemã. Além do crescimento da Afd, queda do SPD e dos Liberais (que parece ficarão de fora do parlamento), me impressionou o corte por idade. German election results explained in graphics p.dw.com/p/4qwji
p.dw.com
German election results explained in graphics – DW – 02/24/2025
Mainstream conservatives led by Friedrich Merz have won Germany's 2025 election. Here's a look in charts at the wins and losses, seats in parliament, possible coalition outcomes and voter demographics...
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Lucas Gelape @lgelape.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Esse estudo reportado na matéria parece bem legal! (via newsletter Mosaico do @nucleo.jor.br) Adorei a estratégia de amostragem, e fiquei impressionado com o volume de vídeos em português www.bbc.com/future/artic...
bbc.com
How a computer that 'drunk dials' videos is exposing YouTube's secrets
YouTube is about to turn 20. An unusual research method is unveiling statistics about the platform that Google would rather keep hidden.
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Rafael H. M. Pereira 🚡 Urban Demographics @urbandemog.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
📢o pacote {geocodebr} v0.1.0 para geolocalização de dados brasileiros em #rstats está no CRAN ! O #geocodebr é a maneira mais rápida e barata 🗺️📍🚀de geolocalizar endereços no 🇧🇷 ipeagit.github.io/geocodebr/ #rspatial
ipeagit.github.io
Geolocalização De Endereços Brasileiros (Geocoding Brazilian Addresses)
Método simples e eficiente de geolocalizar dados no Brasil. O pacote é baseado em conjuntos de dados espaciais abertos de endereços brasileiros, utilizando principalmente o Cadastro Nacional de Endere...
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Marcelo Soares @msoares.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
A @karaswisher.bsky.social fez aqui a psicanálise do Kiko do Foguete. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | What Elon Musk Wants (Gift Article)
The journalist Kara Swisher discusses Elon Musk's goals in government — and the factors that have led to his radicalization.
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Ótimo balanço do que ciência e economia política produziram sobre o fim das doações eleitorais empresariais no Brasil — escrito por @manoelgehrke.bsky.social. Embora ainda exista muita coisa por investigar, é nítido que a capacidade de influência do setor privado mudou.
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Folha de S.Paulo @folha.com · 27/01/2025
Quaest: Avaliação negativa da gestão Lula sobe para 37%
www1.folha.uol.com.br
Quaest: Avaliação negativa do governo Lula sobe para 37% após crise do Pix
Rejeição supera aprovação, de 31%, e chega ao maior patamar numérico do mandato
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Adam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
US-style constitutional review is not associated with better observance of different kinds of rights nor with faster economic growth, but it is associated with higher income inequality. See papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Anti-majoritarianism and Democracy: Effects of Judicial Review on Rights, Economic Growth, and Inequality *
We examine the effect of the most important anti-majoritarian institution-judicial review of constitutionality which empowers some courts to invalidate laws alr
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Lara Mesquita @laramesquita.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
Dica de fim de ano: Leo Weller e Fernando Limongi bateram um papo com a turma do foro sobre o novo livro deles, vale a pena! #polisky
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Não é apenas no Brasil que cortes na ciência, particularmente nas ciências sociais, estão permanentemente no horizonte: o governo da Nova Zelândia anunciou corte total de recursos para pesquisa humanidades e, até agora, não há sinal de volta atrás www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
Amid cuts to basic research, New Zealand scraps all support for social sciences
Scientists shocked as “blue-sky” Marsden Fund has half its budget shifted to research focused on helping economy
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Fernando Meireles @meirelesff.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Novidade de final de ano: atualizamos nosso pacote em R feito para obter dados eleitorais brasileiros, o electionsBR -- agora, ele passa a incluir dados de 2024 e, também, do @cepesp . Seu site atualizado com informações e tutoriais: electionsbr.com/novo/ 1/6
electionsbr.com
An R package for downloading Brazilian electoral data
Easily pull data from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and Cepesp's electoral data repositories
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