Sign in

Lukas Warode

@lwarode.bsky.social
402 followers 462 following 43 posts

Political Science PhD Student, University of Mannheim. lwarode.github.io

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Štěpán Jabůrek @stepanjaburek.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
🚨New Data🚨 We just released the "Machine-translated ParlSpeech V2" on Harvard Dataverse! It contains 3.5M parliamentary speeches from 7 countries (AT, CZ, DE, DK, ES, NL, SE) translated into English using open-source models. w/ Adam Černý @chrauh.bsky.social @janschwalbach.bsky.social ⬇️
13817
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Andrew Martin @andrewmartin.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Political ideology is the strongest predictor of Messi-Ronaldo preference. Authoritarians who like short-form video are more likely to think Ronaldo is the GOAT.
plot predicting messi-ronaldo preference
721567370
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Matthew Kling @matthewkling.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Announcing #RStats package ggcube, now on CRAN -- make 3D #ggplot2 figures using `coord_3d()` matthewkling.github.io/ggcube/
812831
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 17/02/2026
A few years ago, as parlgov.org discontinued its dynamic website, I created my own minimalistic Parlgov Lookup to quickly show which cabinet governed when. Since parlgov itself is now kinda-discontinued, I wanted to move my web-app to rely on www.repdem.org. How? ChatGPT Codex to the rescue!
media.tenor.com
a man with a mustache is saying attention ladies and gentlemen can i please have your attention ?
ALT: a man with a mustache is saying attention ladies and gentlemen can i please have your attention ?
152
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 09/02/2026
Perhaps you received a mysterious noreply email asking you to evaluate some publications 'for novelty'. Looked kinda dubious? Yup, that's the one. So what's up with this 'metascience novelty indicators challenge'? 🧵
73117
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
partycoloR is now on CRAN! Started as a simple idea 6 years ago, now it's a full-featured package. Extract party colors and logos from Wikipedia with one line of code. It's already powering ParlGov Dashboard. install.packages("partycoloR")
09820
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Words like "patriotism" and "racism" are often associated with the right, while "solidarity" and "socialism" are associated with the left. But who uses these associations, and how do political positions matter? 📊 App: lukas-warode.shinyapps.io/lr-words-map/ 📄 Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1143
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Journal of Politics @thejop.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
"When Conservatives See Red but Liberals Feel Blue: Labeler Characteristics and Variation in Content Annotation" by Nora Webb Williams, Andreu Casas, Kevin Aslett, and John Wilkerson. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
021
Reposted by Lukas Warode
The COMPTEXT Association @comptext.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
The Call for Papers and Panels for #COMPTEXT2026 in Birmingham (23-25 April) is out; feel free to circulate: shorturl.at/gRg0p! Deadline: January 16!
12215
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
“You see, the endless renovation of the Stuttgart train station is a symbol of our late-capitalist condition: the project is always ‘in progress,’ yet nothing ever progresses. The construction site itself becomes the true destination.”
Slavoj Žižek meme image
2557
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Marius Sältzer @msaeltzer.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Job Alert! We are hiring two post-docs (full time, 4+ years) in our project SCEPTIC - Social, Computational and Ethical Premises of Trust and Informational Cohesion with @annanosthoff.bsky.social @guzoch.bsky.social and Prof. Andreas Peters (uol.de/informatik/s...)
32832
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Tanise Ceron @taniseceron.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
📣 New Preprint! Have you ever wondered what the political content in LLM's training data is? What are the political opinions expressed? What is the proportion of left- vs right-leaning documents in the pre- and post-training data? Do they correlate with the political biases reflected in models?
24613
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Jamie Cummins @jamiecummins.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Can large language models stand in for human participants? Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research. One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want. THREAD 🧵
arxiv.org
The threat of analytic flexibility in using large language models to simulate human data: A call to attention
Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. How...
11342159
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Joachim Baumann @joachimbaumann.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Using LLMs as data annotators, you can produce any scientific result you want. We call this **LLM Hacking**. Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
We present our new preprint titled "Large Language Model Hacking: Quantifying the Hidden Risks of Using LLMs for Text Annotation".
We quantify LLM hacking risk through systematic replication of 37 diverse computational social science annotation tasks.
For these tasks, we use a combined set of 2,361 realistic hypotheses that researchers might test using these annotations.
Then, we collect 13 million LLM annotations across plausible LLM configurations.
These annotations feed into 1.4 million regressions testing the hypotheses. 
For a hypothesis with no true effect (ground truth $p > 0.05$), different LLM configurations yield conflicting conclusions.
Checkmarks indicate correct statistical conclusions matching ground truth; crosses indicate LLM hacking -- incorrect conclusions due to annotation errors.
Across all experiments, LLM hacking occurs in 31-50\% of cases even with highly capable models.
Since minor configuration changes can flip scientific conclusions, from correct to incorrect, LLM hacking can be exploited to present anything as statistically significant.
6303106
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
My 2nd dissertation paper is out in @nature.com Humanities and Social Sciences Communications: www.nature.com/articles/s41... I study and explore how associations with 'left' and 'right' vary systematically by semantic and political position.
1223
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Constantin Wurthmann @wurthmann.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
📢 New Publication Alert! Our (@msaeltzer.bsky.social) latest article, "Issue congruence between candidates' Twitter communication and constituencies in an MMES: Migration as an exemplary case", has just been published in Parliamentary Affairs. academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
12311
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Oscar Stuhler @oms279.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
Now out in Social Networks Network analysis aspires to be “anticategorical,” yet its basic units—relationships—are usually readily categorized ('friendship,' 'love'). Thus, a nontrivial cultural typification is asserted in the very building blocks of most network analyses. doi.org/10.1016/j.so...
Title and abstract of the paper.
1317
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 22/07/2025
Calling all parliaments experts! Say there's a debate in parliament, and a related vote. How frequently would these be on different days? different weeks? I don't mean different readings of bills, because these will also have different debates. @sgparliaments.bsky.social #polisky #parlisky
media.tenor.com
a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help "
ALT: a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help "
011
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️ Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state. #Democracy #PoliticalScience 🧵 url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
611237
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Claire Burchett @cburchett.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
Happy to share my first published article based on my PhD in Party Politics with @journals.sagepub.com in open access! doi.org/10.1177/1354...
58125
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting
The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…
23212
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Quite a strong final statement: "Descriptive research is important and it is a pity that the general obsession with causal estimates disincentivizes researchers from attempting to publish careful and detailed description."
48830
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
1/2 Another year, another @epsanet.bsky.social This year I had two papers accepted, but no visual proof that I presented joint work with Thomas Bräuninger on (the problems of) dynamic scale usage. I hope some nice people will capture 📸 me again next year in the Post-EPSA era @epssnet.bsky.social
2131
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Nicolai Berk @nicolaiberk.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
So is it pronounced EPSS or EPSS? #epsa2025
2171
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 28/06/2025
In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)
1132
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · 03/06/2025
A large-scale study of academics’ tweets shows disparities in who shapes academic discourse and how it reaches the public. @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social #AcademicTwitter #ClimateAction www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Political expression of academics on Twitter - Nature Human Behaviour
An analysis of nearly 100,000 academics on Twitter reveals strong progressive stances on climate and social issues, driven by a small, vocal subset. The study highlights potential gaps between academi...
1167
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
How do elites view ideology? Analysing candidates’ associations of left and right
Political ideology is a fundamental aspect of politics and a well-researched area of political science, but difficult to measure. By examining the sentiment of political elites’ associations with ‘...
043
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Andreu Casas @andreucasas.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
🚨New publication @The_JOP on human biases in data annotation (w. Nora Webb Williams, @kevinaslett.bsky.social, John Wilkerson). Extremely important given the increasing societal reliance on AI tools often trained on human coders www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
2227
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 19/05/2025
A Tinder Test of Democratic Norms💋 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸 doi.org/10.1086/736698
9283120
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences - GESS @gessunimannheim.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
📣 New article alert 📣 Great insights shared by CDSS doctoral candidate Lukas Warode on elite attitudes towards political ideology. Check out the thread and his article for a deeper dive into the research area. Congrats @lwarode.bsky.social!👏
011
Reposted by Lukas Warode
West European Politics @wepsocial.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Analysing the associations of 🇩🇪 candidates toward ideology, @lwarode.bsky.social shows that left-leaning elites view 'left' positively & 'right' negatively. This pattern is not mirrored by right-leaning elites, who on average have less positive attitudes towards 'right'. doi.org/10.1080/0140...
Abstract of the article "How do elites view ideology? Analysing candidates’ associations of left and right" by Lukas Warode. Published online first in West European Politics.Figures 1 and 2, displaying the symmetrical attitudes (Fig. 1) and expected asymmetrical attitudes (Fig. 2) of left and right elites towards left and right ideology.Figure 7, displaying (A) Correlations between sentiment dictionary model (Rauh 2018) and zero-shot classification model (Laurer et al. 2023). (B) Correlations between sentiment dictionary model (Rauh 2018) and German sentiment model (Guhr et al. 2020). GLES candidate surveys 2013, 2017 and 2021.Figure 8, displaying pooled logistic regression on predicting positive sentiment of left and right. Predicted probabilities of positive sentiment for left and right open-ended survey responses based on left-right self-placement. Vertical dotted line indicates mean of left-right self-placement (4.7). GLES candidate surveys 2013, 2017 and 2021.
092
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
The first paper of my dissertation has been published in West European Politics! @wepsocial.bsky.social See the thread below:
86916
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 13/12/2021
Everything required to explain IV estimation, in one picture.
0215
Reposted by Lukas Warode
sergio tahini @sergiotahini.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
quantitative forscher:innen: fuck ich sitze seit 10 stunden im büro kriege mein fuzzy regression discontinuity design nicht in R implementiert qualitative forscher:innen mit ihrer fokusgruppe:
218220
Reposted by Lukas Warode
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Who's the most liberal or conservative cardinal? Here are the cardinals' ideal point estimates. credit: @adamramey.bsky.social
7389
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Can Bluesky also replace Instagram?
Fiesole, Firenze
180
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Andreas Küpfer @ankuepfer.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
🚀 Our paper (with @eliaskoch.bsky.social) on ‘The Politics of Seeking and Avoiding Discourse in Parliament’ is finally out as EarlyView at the EJPR!
The politics of seeking and avoiding discourse in parliament / When do politicians debate each other in parliament, and when do they prefer to avoid discourse? While existing research has shown MPs to unilaterally leverage the dialogical nature of legislative debates to their advantage, the circumstances facilitating actual discursive interaction have so far received less attention. We introduce a new framework to study the emergence of discourse in political debates. Applying this framework, we expect ideological differences and government–opposition dynamics to shape politicians' choices about seeking or avoiding discourse. To test these hypotheses, we draw on an original dataset of all 14,595 attempted and successful interventions (Zwischenfragen) – extraordinary, voluntary discursive exchanges between speakers and MPs in the audience – in the German Bundestag (1990–2020), extracted using an annotation pipeline developed specifically for this study. We find that MPs separated by diverging preferences seek discourse with one another more often than their ideologically aligned counterparts. At the same time, these exact attempts do less frequently result in discursive interactions. When considering government–opposition dynamics in this process, we observe very similar patterns: Attempts to initiate discourse are particularly common among opposition MPs facing government speakers, and we find tentative evidence suggesting that government actors are most likely to avoid these invitations to discursive interaction. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of elite behaviour in public environments.
36417
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 07/04/2025
History is overrated. #OpenAccess 📝 #Germany #Prussia
sciencedirect.com
Oppression of Catholics in Prussia does not explain spatial differences in support for the radical right in Germany. A critique of Haffert (2022)
A growing literature links contemporary far-right mobilization to the “legacies” of events in the distant past, but often, the effects are small, and …
164
Reposted by Lukas Warode
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 06/04/2025
Wow! Three scholars at Columbia, Michigan, & Maryland just introduced a measure of the partisan leanings of employers in the U.S. The data is constructed by linking voter registrations to online worker profiles. VRscores capture the political affiliations of 21.8M workers across 2.6M employers.
1326371
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 23/10/2023
Feeling funny, might delete later
110
Lukas Warode @lwarode.bsky.social · 29/09/2023
Shameless repost from evil X: I finally found some time to finish the introduction for @OpenDiscourseDE 's R package: open-discourse.github.io/opendiscouRs... The package is technically still under (final) development, while a majority of functions are working consistently.
140