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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik.bsky.social
6.7K followers 193 following 29 posts

American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Charles Franklin @pollsandvotes.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Trump’s second term in two charts. A bit more context at my (Free!) substack: charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/trumps-sec...
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Rating Changes Toward Democrats Across the Board. (@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260923
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
In North Carolina, D share of midterm primary vote predicts general election results (plot has contested Senate & House races since '14) ~57% of votes Tuesday were Democratic — even considering historical reversion to 50%, such a lopsided result indicative of strong tailwind for Ds in must-win race
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
The Senate: Democrats get a couple of rating upgrades this week, with the biggest change coming in Georgia. (@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260130-top...
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating changes in Virginia, Iowa and Maine. (@kkondik.bsky.social and @jmilescoleman.bsky.social, @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250905-top...
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Trump approval rating down to 42% amid... Displeasure with economy — public wants focus on prices, not tariffs Disapproval of Big Beautiful Bill — most say wealthy benefit Declining deportation marks — most say dangerous criminals not being prioritized Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new... 1/
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Walking Gal @docjanicel.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
@kkondik.bsky.social writes an excellent companion piece for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Extra meaningful because it compares the Catalist findings as well.
mailchi.mp
Sabato's Crystal Ball - Digging into the Brand-New Pew Report on 2024 - Vol. 23, Iss. 31
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Digging into a New 2024 Postmortem: Findings from Pew’s Validated Voter Study. (@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250627-top...
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
How the New @catalist.bsky.social Report on 2024 Compares to the Exit Polls. (@kkondik.bsky.social @jmilescoleman.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250522-top...
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Excited to share some tips for writing about polls for anyone coming in cold to the subject! (Pictured: a thing on which pollsters are probably not calling you these days).
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Crystal Ball -- @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on the NH Senate race as well as how the VA Dem electorate might be getting more "efficient" as state House races loom this fall centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia - Sabato's Crystal Ball
The New Hampshire Senate race gets a little more competitive with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D) retirement; in Virginia, Democrats' 2024 coalition was more efficient than it was in some past years.
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The 2026 midterm is still more than a year and a half away. Yet there are a few things we can already predict about it with at least a reasonable amount of confidence. (@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250313-top...
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Crystal Ball -- Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms: Smaller turnout, an older/whiter/more educated electorate, and the non-presidential party typically improving its share of the overall House vote centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms - Sabato's Crystal Ball
Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of the House vote.
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms. (@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250306-top...
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Crystal Ball: Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms - Sabato's Crystal Ball
The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
NEW Crystal Ball: @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on House district presidential voting in Trump's three elections. All but 28 districts (shown in the map) voted the same way in all 3 elections based on the current lines centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
President Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain. (@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250221-top...
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
This is like Senators asking for Trump to release funding for their pet projects. When you campaigned for a personalist presidency you have turned yourself into a beggar seeking the King’s favor rather than a citizen who can be confident of equal treatment for all.
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
NEW Crystal Ball -- Trump's approval a month in Still net positive but has weakened a bit. He's also overperforming with some Democratic-leaning groups -- reasonable to wonder whether that will continue centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain - Sabato's Crystal Ball
As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven mo...
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Kathleen Weldon @kathleenweldon.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
I’m on my third presidential library archive visit, and still I cannot get over that anyone, everyone, can access these historical documents. It’s wonderful. Also, this was the first document in the first folder I opened.
Memo from Hates, polling results from Lou Harris on Vietnam, with all-caps statement: HE MADE ME SWEAR THERE WOULD BE NO RELEASE and handwritten note “off-record, protect Harris.”
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Senate Majority. (@kkondik.bsky.social @jmilescoleman.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250213-top...
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
NEW Crystal Ball Senate ratings, including analysis of midterm Senate rhythms and setting expectations. Rs heavily favored to hold majority. Ratings updated to reflect Tina Smith's retirement earlier today centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
A good piece at Fox News about impoundment (in which I'm quoted). We need more like this in outlets that are read by Republicans. www.foxnews.com/politics/con...
foxnews.com
'Constitutional crisis': The Impoundment Control Act takes center stage after Russell Vought's confirmation
Here's a look at what's up for debate regarding government spending — and what changes could emerge during the Trump administration.
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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
The Separation of Powers system was NOT built for parties, but it sort of worked as long parties weren't THAT cohesive. It's been under pressure for years. Now for the first time a party's President can withhold renomination from legislators who don't vote as they're told and it doesn't work.
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Josh Huder @joshhuder.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
No matter how much a member may like shuttering a specific agency or "pausing" to "review" it's work, it blatantly violates congressional authority and weakens their control of future presidents. It is the worst kind of abdication of power and precedent imaginable.
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Raw votes in IA Sen District 35, 2022 midterm -- a little under 24k votes, R wins by 22 pts Turnout in last night's special -- roughly 9,300, D wins by roughly 3.5 pts obviously great result for Ds but also much lower turnout than even a midterm, common in these kinds of races
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 28/01/2025
I don't disagree with this change. But people shouldn't react to retirements like it's 1976. The incumbency advantage is only about 1-2% on average in recent years. National conditions matter much more. If Dems can't win in MI in 2026 with a less well-known candidate, the party has bigger problems.
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Peters will be 68 at the end of his term. Others these days are only elected to the Senate in their 60s.
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
We haven't done Senate ratings yet, but Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring probably moves that race from starting in Leans D to starting in Toss-up.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Trump return-to-work policy will be a nice case study in implementation of EOs and presidential influence in the bureaucracy. Even seemingly cut-and-dry WH dictates are tough to implement w/o skill, persistence, and buy-in. Will be interesting to see if/how WH accomplishes it.
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syncpol.bsky.social @syncpol.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
Worth reading from @kkondik.bsky.social centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans - Sabato's Crystal Ball
Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and historically-low total as 2020.
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans. (@kkondik.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250116-top...
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
NEW Crystal Ball: 13 Ds in Trump districts, just 3 Rs in Harris districts. Total of 16 crossover districts ties 2020 for fewest in modern history. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans - Sabato's Crystal Ball
Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and historically-low total as 2020.
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 14/01/2025
This is a burgeoning phenomenon that should not be overlooked: Establishment Republicans in state legislatures are banding with Democrats to keep Freedom Caucus-type extremists from getting their way. It happens regularly on legislation, but in Texas, it just determined control of the state House
texastribune.org
Rep. Dustin Burrows voted Texas House speaker in blow to insurgent GOP movement
Burrows defeated Rep. David Cook with a coalition of Republican and Democratic votes.
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Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Final mail and provisionals were added for Virginia special elections Boosted Dem numbers a bit SD-32 2024 Margin: Harris +21.6% 2025 Special: Dem +23.6% SD-10 2024 Margin: Trump +26.9% 2025 Special: GOP +15.67% HD-22 2024 Margin: Harris +22.1% 2025 Special: Dem +24.77%
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Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Miami-Dade's sharp rightward shift in 2020-24 has pretty much realigned FL from light pink to bright crimson.
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Trump popular vote improvement driven more by nation's 150 largest counties than the rest of the country centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
How the Other Half Votes: The Big Counties Versus the Rest of the Country in 2024 - Sabato's Crystal Ball
In improving his margin in the national popular vote by about 6 points from 2020, Donald Trump ran further ahead of his 2020 margin in the nation’s most vote-rich counties than he did in the rest of t...
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Jan 6 still viewed negatively by large majority of Americans, but GOP disapproval has softened considerably Today, just 30% of Republicans *strongly* disapprove — its lowest level yet and 21-point drop since 2021 And most Republicans support Trump pardoning rioters www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-an...
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
As part of running 6 points ahead of his 2-party national popular vote margin from 2020, Donald Trump improved his margin in every single state this year by at least some amount. (@kkondik.bsky.social @center4politics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241219-top...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Always read @mattglassman312.bsky.social - excellent overview of the 119th Congress (de facto underway now), which is truly the dog that caught the car mattglassman.substack.com/p/welcome-to... Dynamics of the GOP caucus are utterly pathological.
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syncpol.bsky.social @syncpol.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Detailed recap from @kkondik.bsky.social for Larry Sabato's UVA Center for Politics. Uniform in direction movement towards Trump, increasing divergence between Red and Blue with further ideological drift. EV College problem in 2032 for D's as Red States gain centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
How the States Vote Relative to the Nation: A 2024 Update - Sabato's Crystal Ball
How the states have voted compared to the nation since the 2000 presidential election.
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
New Crystal Ball: How the states have voted relative to the nation from 2000-2024, featuring big R swings in FL-IA-OH and more, GA/NC trending toward voting with the nation, and much more centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
How the States Vote Relative to the Nation: A 2024 Update - Sabato's Crystal Ball
How the states have voted compared to the nation since the 2000 presidential election.
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Reposted by Kyle Kondik
The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16/12/2024
*Seven* governors could run for a third (or even fourth!) term in 2026, which could smash previous records. The most in a single year was four, which has happened three times, the last time in 1994. Great piece from Eric Ostermeier at UMN
smartpolitics.lib.umn.edu
Will a Record Number of Governors Seek a 3rd+ Consecutive 4-Year Term in 2026? - Smart Politics
As many as seven incumbents could seek their third (or fourth) straight victory to four-year terms.
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John Sides @johnsides.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
After the election, people attributed Trump's victory to local conditions -- high cost of living, increases in immigration, poor city governance. In fact, local conditions didn't matter that much. At @goodauth.bsky.social, I run through the data and explain why. goodauthority.org/news/local-p...
goodauthority.org
Local politics don't explain Trump's gains across many U.S. cities.
Local politics and local issues don't explain Trump's 2024 gains across America, including urban areas. Here's what really happened.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Bolts has made huge leaps in our year-end fundraising: e.g. 288 new monthly subscribers over last month! We're still pushing till end of 2024: This, right here, is big for us in how we are independent & shore up our journalism. What else can I say I haven't said on the need for nonprofit media rn!
boltsmag.org
Support Bolts
We are a nonprofit publication that covers the nuts and bolts of political change, from the local up, and we need reader support to build our journalism.
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Kyle Kondik @kkondik.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
New Crystal Ball: @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on the small but vital shifts across Wisconsin that flipped the state back to Trump, albeit by a smaller margin than the other closely-contested swing states: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
Wisconsin 2024: Not Critical But Still Crucial - Sabato's Crystal Ball
Of the 7 states that were considered Toss-ups during the 2024 campaign, Kamala Harris fared best in Wisconsin, although Donald Trump still carried it. Though Trump gained votes throughout the state, H...
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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Voters are mostly partisans who rationalize, swing voters are often ignorant and voters project their views onto their candidates. But this has always been true! The media was better once, but there was no golden age. Most of their grandparents did not read Walter Lippmann's column.
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Michael Li (李之樸) @mcpli.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
The interesting thing is that lots of people think of the GOP advantage in the Senate comes from small red states (North Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska, etc.). But Ds also have their share of small states. The real GOP advantage comes from the dominance of medium to large southern states.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
For decades, the Senate has been stacked against Democrats, whose past majorities relied on red states where ticket splitting has since collapsed. Republicans have won the Senate despite Dems winning more votes & representing more people in 7 of 13 elections since 2000. A repeat in 2026 is likely
A chart of the U.S. Senate popular vote and the population represented by each party from 1990 to 2024. Republicans have won the Senate in 7 of the last 13 elections starting with the year 2000 despite Democrats continually winning more combined votes and representing more Americans.
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