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Kabir K.

@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
1.5K followers 454 following 424 posts

Director, Elections & Analytics, MS NOW | Princeton political science PhD

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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 11h
Gallup now finds D+11 advantage on leaned party identification Bigger than D lead heading into 2018 midterm, and largest it's been since Obama was elected in 2008 Reading also marks fifth quarter D advantage has grown since Trump took office again in 2025 Source: news.gallup.com/poll/654560/...
news.gallup.com
Quarterly Party Affiliation
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)
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The Weekend on MS NOW @theweekendmsnow.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
“If [Dems] flip twice as many voters as Republicans flip, that's enough for them to win” @kabirkhanna.bsky.social breaks down a scenario on what happens could happen if voters change their party stance in November -- after a recent poll found that 11% of Trump voters regret their vote in 2024
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
With primaries in rearview mirror, it's obvious Democratic enthusiasm translated to big 2026 turnout increases From TX and NC in March, to MI in Aug, and NH recently, Democratic vote totals surpassed GOP totals in several high-profile races (not all) Hasn’t happened in TX for quarter century! 1/3
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Had the pleasure of joining my @ms.now colleagues @symonedsanders.bsky.social and @eugenedaniels2.bsky.social on Clock It this week, to talk polling and the 2026 elections landscape youtu.be/uOzSViaAG_g?...
youtu.be
'Better watch y'all language': Symone on progressive's RACIST ATTACK on Hakeem Jeffries
YouTube video by MS NOW
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The Weekend on MS NOW @theweekendmsnow.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
“If you had told me a year ago that the race for Senate control would be a toss up more or less, that would have been quite surprising to me” @kabirkhanna.bsky.social gives a big board update on how the midterm races are shaping up and what both parties must do to control the Senate.
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Trump's job approval at low point of 34%, according to Pew Decline this term primarily from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: approval down from 84% in Feb '25 to 69% now Partisan gaps in both Trump terms are widest in more than seven decades (followed by gaps under Biden and Obama)
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Pew finds Democrats regaining advantage on leaned party ID 47% of Americans identify more as Democrats, while 43% identify more as Republicans — essentially even in '24, with most movement among leaners Consistent w/ increase in % leaning D in Gallup data More: www.pewresearch.org/politics/fac...
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
We're hiring! This is an exciting opportunity to build something new in the election analytics space, in a dynamic environment with super smart colleagues. Let me know if you're interested or if you know someone who might be a good fit... jobs.smartrecruiters.com/Versant3/744...
jobs.smartrecruiters.com
Data Analytics Manager, Elections
Company Description: VERSANT (Nasdaq: VSNT) is an industry-changing media and entertainment business and home to trusted brands that shape culture, inform audiences, and build lasting connections. It ...
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
We're hiring! This is an exciting opportunity to build something new in the election analytics space, in a dynamic environment with super smart colleagues. Let me know if you're interested or if you know someone who might be a good fit... jobs.smartrecruiters.com/Versant3/744...
jobs.smartrecruiters.com
Data Analytics Manager, Elections
Company Description: VERSANT (Nasdaq: VSNT) is an industry-changing media and entertainment business and home to trusted brands that shape culture, inform audiences, and build lasting connections. It ...
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
NYT polls show Ds have Senate path, but it's close... within margin of error of flipping enough seats to win 51 NC likeliest to flip, ME toss up Warning in OH/AK/TX/IA: % wanting R control 3-6 pts higher than % voting R; Rs have room to grow if majority looks shaky www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u...
nytimes.com
Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times/Siena Polls Find
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
AP projects Nithya Raman advancing to general election for Los Angeles mayor Tonight’s update from LA gives her a cushion of over 20,000 votes over Spencer Pratt, making her position in the top two safe So Raman will face incumbent Karen Bass this fall
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
BREAKING Nithya Raman just overtook Spencer Pratt in the LA mayor vote count Today's update puts Raman ahead of Pratt by over 3,000 votes Her tally has steadily trended up since Election Day, so this was expected She beat Pratt by 22 points in tonight's batch, 23 pts Saturday, and 21 pts Friday
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Jacob Soboroff @jacobsoboroff.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Trump should show up here at the L.A. County ballot processing center because he’d learn within five minutes this is democracy in action, not some conspiracy.
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Here's where the LA Mayoral race stands today (est. 78% in): 34.8% Bass 27.3% Pratt 26.2% Raman Here's the full trajectory of vote reports, with each row being unique batch Raman won plurality of both Friday and Saturday's votes, and beat Pratt by >20 pts She's in position to overtake him tonight
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11th Hour with Ali Velshi @11thhourmsnow.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Bearing witness has never mattered more and you don’t have to be a journalist to do it. Contrary to what the people counting on your indifference want you to believe, citizenship is a choice to show up and engage with your neighbors, your community, your country. We will not look away. #Velshi
ms.now
‘We will not look away’: Velshi on journalism, citizenship, and his move to prime time
Bearing witness has never mattered more than it does right now. And you don't have to be a journalist to bear witness. Darnella Frazier, Renee Good, Alex Pretti, Eugene Goodman, and Febb Burn. History is filled with people who bore witness and held power to count. We will not look away. Because contrary to what the people counting on your indifference want you to believe, citizenship in a democracy is not something you are handed. It is something you do — a choice to show up and engage with your neighbors, your community, your country. And in this moment, your country needs you. The Republic is not lost. It is deeply endangered. And endangered things can be saved — but not by waiting. You have 148 days. One hundred and forty-eight days between this morning and November 3rd — Election Day — to organize, to register voters, to have the conversations that need having, to show up for democracy. See you on The 11th Hour. 
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
In order to advance to general election for LA mayor, Raman needs to beat Pratt by about 10 percentage points in the vote estimated to be outstanding in Los Angeles... How much she beat Pratt by in each batch of votes since Tue: 10.4 pts on Wed 13.3 tpts on Thu 20.7 pts today
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Opposite story in LA mayoral: 3rd-place Nithya Raman hitting numbers she needs to catch up with 2nd-place Spencer Pratt In today’s batch of 60K votes, Raman actually got bigger share than even incumbent Karen Bass Gap between Raman and Pratt now down to 3 points It could be a photo finish for 2nd
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Large updates today in counties like Sacramento, Contra Costa, Alameda, and LA propelled Becerra into 1st place in CA Gov race Later-arriving ballots continue to break heavily for Ds There are still millions of ballots left to count statewide, and no projection yet for 2nd candidate advancing 1/2
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Most Americans oppose ICE presence at World Cup stadiums, a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll finds. Details in my story with @rickmaese.bsky.social -> www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2026/...
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Going to talk Texas numbers this morning with Velshi on @ms.now
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Extremely relevant today - our new report on the state of the rule of law in America brightlinewatch.org/erosion-of-t... Most notably, 91% of legal experts say Trump's DOJ provides favors or benefits to his allies, including 56% of legal conservatives. Findings thread below; please read & share.
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
High in STRONG disapproval of Trump (52%) and low in strong approval (20%) -> widest gap of term (32 pts) And noteworthy result about key segment of Trump base: last month his approval with White, non-college Americans dipped below 50% for first time in this poll; it's still underwater at 46% today
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
More tough numbers for White House from today's CBS News/YouGov poll Trump approval rating down to new low of 37% Ratings of economy down to levels not seen since 2023 Three quarters say incomes aren't keeping up with inflation (stable proportion since '23); gas prices increasingly difficult 1/2
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11th Hour with Ali Velshi @11thhourmsnow.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social says Republican redistricting may drive Democratic enthusiasm: “I do think that will add fuel to the fire in terms of engaging people and driving turnout.” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says,” They may have really overshot this.” #Velshi
msnbc.com
‘They may have really overshot this’: How redistricting could backfire on GOP
The GOP are ahead in the redistricting war, but it may backfire nationally. MS NOW Elections Director Kabir Khanna says Republicans drawing out Democratic districts will, “add fuel to the fire in terms of engaging people and driving turnout,” when midterms usually have lower turnout. “There were in 2024 over 9 million skippers on the Democratic side in battleground states, not just southern states, but battleground states,” says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “Those voters are coming out.”
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Trump endorsed 7 primary challengers against Indiana state senators who voted against redistricting in the state... Of six races that have already been projected tonight: 5 Trump-endorsed challengers have won nomination 1 incumbent state senator has survived Still waiting on SD-23, which is closer
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Happy to share I'm joining MS NOW as Director of Elections & Analytics... Truly excited for this chapter and grateful for the opportunity build something special in a crucial election year www.thewrap.com/media-platfo...
thewrap.com
MS NOW Taps CBS News’ Kabir Khanna to Bolster Election Coverage
Khanna will lead election data coverage for the progressive news network and the business-focused CNBC.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
I analyzed turnout by race and Hispanic ethnicity in Virginia's redistricting amendment vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/how-did-vi...
michaelmcdonald.substack.com
How Did Virginia's African-American Communities Vote in the 2026 Virginia Redistricting Referendum?
Southern minority communities have a unique and long experience with redistricting.
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Cory McCartan @corymccartan.com · 22/04/2026
Time to plug my simple congressional model again, which I've updated with the new VA plan: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel. Net effect of re-redistricting is D+1.5 seats in tied environment, growing to D+2 seats in a D+10 environment. Bit more competitive map, too.
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CBS News @cbsnews.com · 22/04/2026
Virginia voters approve a referendum for a new congressional map, which is expected to favor Democrats.
cbsn.ws
Virginia voters approve new congressional map favoring Democrats, CBS News projects
Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a new congressional map that would give Democrats an advantage in 10 House districts, leaving just one safe Republican seat, CBS News projects.
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
It's still early, but positive trends for Yes side on Virginia ballot question Early results tracking fairly closely with '24 election when Harris won state by 6 points Here are counties we estimate to be >80% complete, scaled by size Large circle is Loudoun, where Yes is slightly ahead of Harris
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Once again asking people not to post about poll results without links to the surveys, and not to repost anything that cites poll results without links to the surveys. This is not (primarily) about credit, it's a data credibility check.
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Nice analysis here from Andrew & NBC desk, who estimate Virginians turning out at 90% of what we saw last fall Context: 2025 gubernatorial saw 3.4 million total votes and 15-point win for Democrat Spanberger That indicates about 3.1 million total referendum votes, with slight majority voting today
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Thomas J Wood @thomasjwood.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
The vivid partisan sorting of US house districts by income and party -- 2005 -2024
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Trump's approval rating is down 14 points since start of term, from 53% in Feb '25 to 39% now Young people and less politically engaged have seen biggest drops (20+ pts) New lows today with '24 non-voters (30%) and men <45 (36%) And White non-college number underwater for first time (48% approve)
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
NEW Trump's approval rating has hit a new low this term: 39% in our latest poll Ratings of U.S. economy have ticked down, with eight in ten Americans reporting rising gas prices Widespread dissatisfaction with administration's handling of economy, and its marks on Iran war aren't much better 1/3
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Republicans hold onto their seat in Georgia's 14th, but Democrats post another BIG overperformance It's a district Trump carried by 37 pts, so this is a blue shift of over 20 pts Most outstanding votes are in counties Democrat is leading (Cobb + Paulding), so current R margin should narrow... 1/2
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Delivering the keynote at Columbia's political analytics conference, which features a great mix of scholars and practitioners discussing various topics in the field. It's this Friday, and registration is still open! 📅March 27, 2026 🕘9 am - 4 pm 📍Columbia University, NYC More info: lnkd.in/gvMauJ5h
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Relatedly, shares seeing rising gas prices (85%) and prices on goods/services (72%) both at highs in our polling More highs: 53% say Trump policies are making them *worse* off financially 18% of Trump '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling Half the country overall (49%) *strongly* disapprove
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
NEW Approval of U.S. military action in Iran down to 40% 38% approve of Trump handling of situation (-5 pts in 3 weeks) Share saying Trump has clearly explained goals down to 32% Majority say conflict going badly for U.S. Two thirds call it "war of choice" More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...
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Farrah Bostic @farrahbostic.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
At long last! The latest @crosstabspodcast.com is uploading right now, featuring the brilliant @kathleenweldon.bsky.social of @ropercenter.bsky.social talking about the power of archiving opinion research - and so much more. Subscribe to get it in your feed: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
CBS News projects Juliana Stratton the winner of the Illinois Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Even though our modeling suggests her vote lead over Raja Krishnamoorthi may narrow a bit, we're confident she wins Stratton to face Republican Don Tracy in the general election in this deep blue state
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Closer look at last week's big turnout in Texas, with a focus on Latinos... Relative to average across '20, '22, and '24, majority-Latino counties saw 37% increase in primary votes Other counties saw closer to 33% increase in aggregate Starr & Hidalgo County among largest spikes (67% & 51%) 1/6
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Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social): Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
In North Carolina, D share of midterm primary vote predicts general election results (plot has contested Senate & House races since '14) ~57% of votes Tuesday were Democratic — even considering historical reversion to 50%, such a lopsided result indicative of strong tailwind for Ds in must-win race
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
CBS News projects James Talarico winner of the U.S. Senate Democratic primary in Texas We have projected that he will finish ahead of Jasmine Crockett with over 50% of the votes
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
CBS News/YouGov recontacted survey respondents after strikes on Iran Most say Trump administration still hasn't clearly explained goals — which is related to disapproval of military action Half the country believes conflict will last months or even years More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Interesting that latest YouGov survey of Texas primary, which uses text-to-web recruitment, has quite different estimates of vote choice by race/ethnicity than polls using YG online panel
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
More signs of '26 enthusiasm gap... Trump voters 2x likelier than Harris voters to say which party controls congress in '27 doesn't matter Even bigger gap w/ independents... Ind. Harris voters: 83% Dem control 14% doesn't matter/unsure Ind. Trump voters: 59% GOP control 32% doesn't matter/unsure
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
With midterm primaries kicking off tomorrow, which party would Americans like to see control Congress next year? All adults: D+7 Reg. voters: D+6 Those saying "Not sure" or "It doesn't matter either way" are mostly Trump voters, but based on turnout histories, aren't consistent midterm voters 1/3
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Kabir K. @kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
About 15% of Trump's '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling — the share has crept up since last year I pooled data from our four polls over the last two months to take a closer look at them (n=435, MOE: ±5.4 pts) (All polls done before U.S. strike on Iran, w/ field dates from 1/5-2/27) 1/4
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