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Jon Nuelle

@jnuelle.bsky.social
554 followers 1K following 1.3K posts

High-frequency wonderer. Wrangler of data. Anti-Dunning-Krugerite, starting in my own mirror. "Nullius in Verba" AND "Respect Expertise" are two sides of the same coin of truth.

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Reposted by Jon Nuelle
James Talarico @jamestalarico.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Thanks for letting a politician crash your party, ACL!
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Maggie McNeill @maggiemcneill.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The term everyone is dancing around is "secret police", a hallmark of totalitarian regimes.
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Holly Berkley Fletcher @hollybfletcher.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Here’s hoping
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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Team Talarico @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The crowd for Turnstile’s show was fired up for James Talarico 🔥
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Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 10/10/2026
What is JD talking about, “in my view”? It’s not a matter of opinion, it was the Oklahoma City bombing, he was 11, he would’ve known about it at the time, it was kind of a big deal.
The bombed-open side of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The administration keeps telling us that ICE is in our cities to make us all feel safe, but if they're goons in plainclothes bum rushing vehicles with guns and pounding on the windows, how exactly does that make anyone feel safe?
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Boycott Citizens @boycottcitizens.org · 08/10/2026
“Many of us have been separated from our families,” reads the open letter, signed by dozens of hunger strikers and published this week. “We have missed births, funerals, years of our lives while sitting behind fences without having committed any crime.”
theguardian.com
Detained immigrants at Georgia ICE facility launch mass hunger strike
At least 73 people estimated to have joined protest against prolonged detention and Folkston facility’s ‘violations’
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Boycott Citizens @boycottcitizens.org · 08/10/2026
Mass surveillance is, among other things, helping enable Stephen Miller's ethnic cleansing agenda. It's time to demand transparency about local law enforcement agencies' data-sharing practices and surveillance tools.
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Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 09/10/2026
Aminata Seck has been freed. "I'm just ready to go back to school, get my master's and get this surgery done,” she said. ICE kept her in pain in detention for two months for no reason. www.espn.com/womens-colle...
espn.com
Kentucky State player released on bond from ICE custody
Kentucky State University women's basketball center Aminata Seck was released on bond Wednesday after spending two months in ICE custody.
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Bill McKibben @billmckibben.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Figuring out why Ossoff is so effective is an interesting task. I think he's mastering a kind of stern dignity that is uniquely compelling in contrast to the clownish cruelty of the other side. I think the other person who's kind of hit on the same thing is AOC, though in a different register
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James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · 07/10/2026
Holy shit. Someone has decompiled the Adobe suite, rebuilt it in Rust and released it as open source. Either all software is dead or the US copyright laws are about to receive an update. getartcraft.com/apps
getartcraft.com
Crafting Apps: open-source creative tools
Image editing, vector illustration, video, photography, PDFs, motion graphics and page layout: seven native, open-source apps from the ArtCraft team, built in Rust and free to use.
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The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
TEXAS — @jamestalarico.bsky.social : “Why do we have a trillionaire when veterans are sleeping on the streets? The reason poverty exists is not because we can’t feed the poor, it’s because we can’t satisfy the rich.” (From @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social )
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David Corn @davidcorn.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
In two weeks.
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Micah @rincewind.run · 07/10/2026
rip to one of the coolest software engineers who ever lived
Margaret Hamilton standing next to a printout of code she and her team wrote for the Apollo program, which is as tall as she is
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Julie K. Brown @jkbjournalist.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
NEW: Maybe it's time to take a good look at all these deaths in the Epstein-Trump orbit. jkbjournalist.substack.com/p/dead-men-t...
jkbjournalist.substack.com
Dead men tell no Epstein-Trump tales
When witnesses, whistleblowers and accusers die, it’s time to look at whether they have anything in common. Here is a list of some of the recent deaths.
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Tina-Desiree Berg @tinadesireeberg.com · 06/10/2026
A group of interfaith clergy have completed their pilgrimage from the Adelanto detention center to the MDC in downtown Los Angeles
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Rabbi Danya Ruttenberg @theradr.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Abolish the carceral state. May Curtis Flowers' memory be for a revolution and his name and struggle never forgotten.
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Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 06/10/2026
I LOVE how @propublica.org dealt with official comment here, editorially and stylistically.
The Trump administration says none of this is happening. 

"DHS is NOT arresting U.S. citizens by mistake." "There are no 'indiscriminate' stops." Allegations of "racial profiling are disgusting, reckless and categorically FALSE." "The pattern is NOT of law enforcement using force." "ICE does not zip tie or restrain children." 

But that is precisely what is happening, and at a far larger scale than previously reported.
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 06/10/2026
"archaeology, anthropology, and sociology, which typically make hundreds of new grants—distributed zero new awards."
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I'm not sure if @oversightdemocrats.bsky.social have issued a statement on this yet, but they should publicly announce that if Russ Vought tries to fuck with the election in any way they will fire him out of a cannon when they take power.
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Saying he'd be cool with Iran nuking my home city is pretty bad but not quite as bad as when Hillary said some trump supporters were deplorable so I can see why the media turned the latter into a major scandal and not the former
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Deb Haaland @debhaalandnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
My grandparents survived the terrible abuse of the Federal Indian Boarding School Era. That trauma wasn't isolated to the past—it was carried down through my family all the way to me. And there are so many families like my own across Indian Country.
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Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 02/10/2026
This is a better epilogue to my January story about the private equity firm profiting off of ICE's cruelest flights than I could have ever possibly hoped for. CHICAGO: You went to the mat and protected (at a minimum!) thousands of immigrants from torture. Take a bow. prospect.org/2026/10/02/i...
prospect.org
The City That Brought Down an ICE Airline - The American Prospect
In Chicago, progressive alderpeople held up a contract until a private equity firm was forced to dispatch Omni Air International, protecting thousands of immigrants from deportation.
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Texas Observer @texasobserver.org · 05/10/2026
“Rural voters are a huge part of the electoral firewall that the GOP maintains in Texas.” Previously: With the midterms approaching, Dems in the land of red dirt and even redder politics are determined to make their own blue wave.
texasobserver.org
‘Up Against a 500-Pound Gorilla’: Can Dems Make Inroads in Deep-Red West Texas?
With a candidate on the ballot in every state and federal race, the minority party is trying hard to gain some ground in the GOP’s electoral firewall.
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Team Talarico @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The Ken Paxton Corruption Hotline is now receiving thousands of voicemails. Listen to what they’re saying: “Ken Paxton is corrupt.” “I’m voting for James Talarico!” Texans are tired of corruption — and ready for something new.
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
"It's important for you all to stay on the same team as Ken Paxton," says the woman who filed for divorce and ended their marriage
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The kids these days will hardly believe it, but a mere two years ago, the mental & physical (lack of) acuity of Elderly Presidents was the Great Issue of Our Time. Someone should tell Jake Tapper & Alex Thompson, so they can write a book on it.
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Something big may be happening: Trump's world-historical misrule may be creating the conditions for the emergence of a coalition similar to the one that ousted Viktor Orban earlier this year: Anti-corruption, anti-authoritarian, pro-democracy. I made this case here: newrepublic.com/article/2161...
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Norm Eisen @normeisen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
BREAKING: Davey Hearn reflecting pool prosecution dismissed WITH PREJUDICE That means the case cannot be brought again  Huge victory for Davey, for us at @democracydefendersfund.org & our legal team colleagues Washington Litigation Group and Steptoe--& for rule of law More to follow!
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Paul Byrne @theplanetaryguy.com · 02/10/2026
This will never stop blowing my mind. A 12-year sequence of real telescope images of a star 133 lightyears away. And around it, four planets slowly orbiting. Four real exoplanets, each more massive than Jupiter, imaged as they move around their host star.
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Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
As a fourth generation Cubs fan (disappointed today, sure) I heartily approve this optimistic future option for our current garbage timeline. (Also, congrats to CHW for advancing and showing us all that it's still possible for terrible teams to become really good really fast!)
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Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Whenever Texas threatens to pull funding from Dallas because Dallas did something progressive, the city cowers and tells residents, "we have to comply or the state will pull funding!" But when Texas pulls funding for Flock cameras, the city can amazingly find a way to keep them running.
fox4news.com
DPD and Flock agree to keep state-funding cameras active for a while longer
Dallas currently operates 300 active Flock license plate cameras. Another 320 were set to be unplugged due to state funding cuts but will now remain active for the next 90 days.
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Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The stability of the electric grid in TEXAS now depends upon renewables and massive battery storage, particularly during peak demand. There's no going back.
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Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Pretty clear to me there’s a very good case against this man for mass murder, and I’m saying that in as measured a fashion as I can. He’s order the killing of 234 people under no plausible war or legal justification. I am skeptical he will ever face legal accountability for til his but he should.
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Leah McElrath @leahmcelrath.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
There are also no independent scientists, engineers, researchers, or other AI experts present at the meeting. Total regulatory capture.
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Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Nothing quite like *launching* with a zero-day flaw. 🤯🤬 When "zero trust" means I will never trust a billionaire's faulty-by-design, enshittified products.
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Hannah Harris Green @whatsitlike.me · 28/09/2026
When I set out to fact check “The Cities That Said Yes to Drugs” which argues that harm reduction may increase overdoses, I expected some cherry picking and misdirection. But not to find basic math errors and debunked right wing talking points asserted as fact in the Atlantic’s print edition.
whatsitlike.me
Atlantic's anti-harm reduction screed riddled with errors
A close read of "The Cities That Said Yes to Drugs" found errors in basic arithmetic as well as more deliberately misleading elements
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Michael Greshko @michaelgreshko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
BEHOLD: the first-ever glowing cuttlefish! 🧪🦑🧪🦑 It's the first successful insertion of a gene into a cephalopod, opening up new ways of studying them. It took @tessamontague.bsky.social years—and 1000s of tries—to pull it off. @sarareardon.bsky.social has the story: www.science.org/content/arti...
Glowing red cuttlefish on a black background
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Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 28/09/2026
IT'S OFFICIAL. The progressive members of the Chicago City Council (looking at you, @andrefor40th.bsky.social) stopped ICE's cruelest, most notorious charter airline, Omni Air International. news.wttw.com/2026/09/28/f...
news.wttw.com
Firm Set to Buy Chicago’s Parking Meters Sells Airline That Carried Out Deportations
More than a dozen progressive members of the City Council said they would not vote in favor of the deal unless the firm sold Omni Air, threatening the completion of the deal involving the city’s 36,00...
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 28/09/2026
this is legitimately very funny
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Max Kennerly @maxkennerly.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Sure, the 2024 election was one too, but 2026 might be the clearest intelligence test ever presented to the American electorate. Taken at face value, he's saying he stole hundreds of billions from the gov't, hid it somewhere Congress can't reach, and he pinky swears he will give you a piece. Really.
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Ami Fields-Meyer @fieldsmeyer.com · 28/09/2026
You think we’re just going to move on from the secret police rounding up our neighbors?
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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Data centers are booming. All other private construction is shrinking.
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Historian Jen @historianjenfl.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Andy Beshear has an entire chapter in his new book about backing the LGBTQ community and it's worth a read. He talks about how the anti-trans ads were tested in KY during his election and how vetoing anti-trans legislation didn't hurt his reelection campaign.
However the anti-trans ads had less to do with Kentucky and more to do with the fact that we were in an election. Terry Schilling, the head of the APP, decided to test the ads in our election to determine whether or not the issue could win votes for the Republican Party. Earlier in the summer of 2019, Scholling had partnered with a behavioral science firm to try to find a wedge issue that resonated with suburban voters. That's right. The anti-trans ads did not come out of some firmly held conviction but was a purely political stance. Their research landed on trans athletes, specifically trans women, competing in women's sports. They tested their theory in the 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial general election. Although I won, APP considered their test successful, because their research showed the ads delivered thirteen thousand votes for Trump Lite, which made the race tighter than anticipated.You might hask how, in this political climate, I was reelected after vetoing the anti-trans bill. Because people respect authentic faith. The day I vetoed it, I explained my why. I said I believe all children are children of God and that I don't want people picking on these kids. I then countered their anti-trans ads with commercials talking about good jobs, healthcare, roads and bridges, public education, and public safety. The result? The biggest win of my career. So don't tell me the Democratic Party should stop fighting for the rights of all people. Just explain your authentic why, and then get back to focusing on issues that touch all our lives on a daily basis.
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Progress Texas @progresstexas.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Separation of church and state ≠ separation of faith and politics. Hear more of our @jamestalarico.bsky.social coverage LIVE at the @texastribune.org festival, everywhere you stream Progress Texas Podcasts.
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 28/09/2026
1/ On @lastweektonight.com, John Oliver cited our reporting w/ @texastribune.org about how Ken Paxton appeared to have violated Texas law. Paxton used an address where his estranged wife said he no longer lived while voting in 6 elections in the past 2 years: www.propublica.org/article/ken-...
John Oliver (on right) gestures with his hands as he speaks. On left, a Texas Tribune headline from July 7, 2026 reads: “Ken Paxton vowed to crack down on 'illegal voting.' He may have violated Texas election law.” An article excerpt below says: "... appears to have used an address where he did not live while voting in six elections ...”
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Sam @samd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
it’s so funny that people were like “OMG a 2PM Oval Office announcement, is Trump going to end the war in Iran or invade Cuba?!?!” and it turns out, no, he’s just going to rant about how good the economy is + how elections are rigged and then fall asleep
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Ossoff's Office @ossoff.senate.gov · 28/09/2026
Sen. Ossoff on RFK Jr.'s reckless decision to cut cyclosporiasis monitoring: "There is no excuse. There is no justification. It's madness."
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"i'm james talarico and i approve this message"
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