Sign in

Jon Nuelle

@jnuelle.bsky.social
554 followers 1K following 1.3K posts

High-frequency wonderer. Wrangler of data. Anti-Dunning-Krugerite, starting in my own mirror. "Nullius in Verba" AND "Respect Expertise" are two sides of the same coin of truth.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Team Talarico @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social · 7h
Q: President Trump said that you and Ken Paxton should debate... What are your thoughts on that? James Talarico: I agree with President Trump. I think Ken Paxton should debate. I know Ken Paxton has asked for proof of life from me. I'm asking for proof of spine from him.
321310330
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
James Talarico @jamestalarico.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Thanks for letting a politician crash your party, ACL!
813273674
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Maggie McNeill @maggiemcneill.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The term everyone is dancing around is "secret police", a hallmark of totalitarian regimes.
236771298
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Holly Berkley Fletcher @hollybfletcher.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Here’s hoping
5998
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
146145066244
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
But how new are they, really?
020
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Team Talarico @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The crowd for Turnstile’s show was fired up for James Talarico 🔥
362001396
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 10/10/2026
What is JD talking about, “in my view”? It’s not a matter of opinion, it was the Oklahoma City bombing, he was 11, he would’ve known about it at the time, it was kind of a big deal.
The bombed-open side of the Alfred P. Murrah federal building
1131862
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The administration keeps telling us that ICE is in our cities to make us all feel safe, but if they're goons in plainclothes bum rushing vehicles with guns and pounding on the windows, how exactly does that make anyone feel safe?
10640071117
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Boycott Citizens @boycottcitizens.org · 08/10/2026
“Many of us have been separated from our families,” reads the open letter, signed by dozens of hunger strikers and published this week. “We have missed births, funerals, years of our lives while sitting behind fences without having committed any crime.”
theguardian.com
Detained immigrants at Georgia ICE facility launch mass hunger strike
At least 73 people estimated to have joined protest against prolonged detention and Folkston facility’s ‘violations’
01813
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Boycott Citizens @boycottcitizens.org · 08/10/2026
Mass surveillance is, among other things, helping enable Stephen Miller's ethnic cleansing agenda. It's time to demand transparency about local law enforcement agencies' data-sharing practices and surveillance tools.
11610
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
As a person whose initial conversation with the oral surgeon included the words "you wanna do WHAT now?!" and who still talks to the dentist using tooth numbers, I wish you an easy heal and the good drugs. Meat also heals itself and the cell biology is 💯
020
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
for these adulting completions, the dance of joy. chop wood, carry water, Amen
static.klipy.com
Charlie Brown's Happy Dance
Alt: Charlie Brown's Happy Dance
010
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 09/10/2026
Aminata Seck has been freed. "I'm just ready to go back to school, get my master's and get this surgery done,” she said. ICE kept her in pain in detention for two months for no reason. www.espn.com/womens-colle...
espn.com
Kentucky State player released on bond from ICE custody
Kentucky State University women's basketball center Aminata Seck was released on bond Wednesday after spending two months in ICE custody.
61317519
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Bill McKibben @billmckibben.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Figuring out why Ossoff is so effective is an interesting task. I think he's mastering a kind of stern dignity that is uniquely compelling in contrast to the clownish cruelty of the other side. I think the other person who's kind of hit on the same thing is AOC, though in a different register
1402633310
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · 07/10/2026
Holy shit. Someone has decompiled the Adobe suite, rebuilt it in Rust and released it as open source. Either all software is dead or the US copyright laws are about to receive an update. getartcraft.com/apps
getartcraft.com
Crafting Apps: open-source creative tools
Image editing, vector illustration, video, photography, PDFs, motion graphics and page layout: seven native, open-source apps from the ArtCraft team, built in Rust and free to use.
20144211244
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
TEXAS — @jamestalarico.bsky.social : “Why do we have a trillionaire when veterans are sleeping on the streets? The reason poverty exists is not because we can’t feed the poor, it’s because we can’t satisfy the rich.” (From @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social )
12982632628
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
David Corn @davidcorn.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
In two weeks.
3543648
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Micah @rincewind.run · 07/10/2026
rip to one of the coolest software engineers who ever lived
Margaret Hamilton standing next to a printout of code she and her team wrote for the Apollo program, which is as tall as she is
2956911119
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Julie K. Brown @jkbjournalist.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
NEW: Maybe it's time to take a good look at all these deaths in the Epstein-Trump orbit. jkbjournalist.substack.com/p/dead-men-t...
jkbjournalist.substack.com
Dead men tell no Epstein-Trump tales
When witnesses, whistleblowers and accusers die, it’s time to look at whether they have anything in common. Here is a list of some of the recent deaths.
10538491544
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Tina-Desiree Berg @tinadesireeberg.com · 06/10/2026
A group of interfaith clergy have completed their pilgrimage from the Adelanto detention center to the MDC in downtown Los Angeles
315847
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Rabbi Danya Ruttenberg @theradr.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Abolish the carceral state. May Curtis Flowers' memory be for a revolution and his name and struggle never forgotten.
018245
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 06/10/2026
I LOVE how @propublica.org dealt with official comment here, editorially and stylistically.
The Trump administration says none of this is happening. 

"DHS is NOT arresting U.S. citizens by mistake." "There are no 'indiscriminate' stops." Allegations of "racial profiling are disgusting, reckless and categorically FALSE." "The pattern is NOT of law enforcement using force." "ICE does not zip tie or restrain children." 

But that is precisely what is happening, and at a far larger scale than previously reported.
1335761334
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Honestly, a musty raccoon-skin cap would be a giant improvement over the whatever-thing he usually blows over his pate just before the final coating of orange face paint.
020
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
THERE'S NO BASEMENT IN THE ALAMO!
000
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 06/10/2026
"archaeology, anthropology, and sociology, which typically make hundreds of new grants—distributed zero new awards."
38054
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I'm not sure if @oversightdemocrats.bsky.social have issued a statement on this yet, but they should publicly announce that if Russ Vought tries to fuck with the election in any way they will fire him out of a cannon when they take power.
1162139599
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Saying he'd be cool with Iran nuking my home city is pretty bad but not quite as bad as when Hillary said some trump supporters were deplorable so I can see why the media turned the latter into a major scandal and not the former
423366711
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Deb Haaland @debhaalandnm.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
My grandparents survived the terrible abuse of the Federal Indian Boarding School Era. That trauma wasn't isolated to the past—it was carried down through my family all the way to me. And there are so many families like my own across Indian Country.
12353271338
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 02/10/2026
This is a better epilogue to my January story about the private equity firm profiting off of ICE's cruelest flights than I could have ever possibly hoped for. CHICAGO: You went to the mat and protected (at a minimum!) thousands of immigrants from torture. Take a bow. prospect.org/2026/10/02/i...
prospect.org
The City That Brought Down an ICE Airline - The American Prospect
In Chicago, progressive alderpeople held up a contract until a private equity firm was forced to dispatch Omni Air International, protecting thousands of immigrants from deportation.
192242794
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
It goes badly, of course. I have a sick feeling that we are on approach to the Deplorable Word, though. It would not surprise me to see him burn it all down (whatever that means) before accommodating to the reality of a decisive loss. That is the way of the NPD.
010
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It is, indeed. They shouldn't have to spend a dime in West Texas, yet Lubbock/Amarillo are blanketed with the stupidest Paxton/PAC TV ads imaginable. Voter reg deadline is today, so it's all GotV from here. Trumper enthusiasm low. Not a done deal, but this is the best chance in a generation.
040
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Texas Observer @texasobserver.org · 05/10/2026
“Rural voters are a huge part of the electoral firewall that the GOP maintains in Texas.” Previously: With the midterms approaching, Dems in the land of red dirt and even redder politics are determined to make their own blue wave.
texasobserver.org
‘Up Against a 500-Pound Gorilla’: Can Dems Make Inroads in Deep-Red West Texas?
With a candidate on the ballot in every state and federal race, the minority party is trying hard to gain some ground in the GOP’s electoral firewall.
0256
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I still may leave the room before the flying monkeys give me more nightmare fuel.
static.klipy.com
Wizard of Oz Flying Monkeys Forecast
Alt: Wizard of Oz Flying Monkeys Forecast
1240
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Team Talarico @teamtalaricohq.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The Ken Paxton Corruption Hotline is now receiving thousands of voicemails. Listen to what they’re saying: “Ken Paxton is corrupt.” “I’m voting for James Talarico!” Texans are tired of corruption — and ready for something new.
10661602124
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
"It's important for you all to stay on the same team as Ken Paxton," says the woman who filed for divorce and ended their marriage
771469212
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
stupid boilers, grr.
010
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The kids these days will hardly believe it, but a mere two years ago, the mental & physical (lack of) acuity of Elderly Presidents was the Great Issue of Our Time. Someone should tell Jake Tapper & Alex Thompson, so they can write a book on it.
019536
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Something big may be happening: Trump's world-historical misrule may be creating the conditions for the emergence of a coalition similar to the one that ousted Viktor Orban earlier this year: Anti-corruption, anti-authoritarian, pro-democracy. I made this case here: newrepublic.com/article/2161...
781929464
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Norm Eisen @normeisen.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
BREAKING: Davey Hearn reflecting pool prosecution dismissed WITH PREJUDICE That means the case cannot be brought again  Huge victory for Davey, for us at @democracydefendersfund.org & our legal team colleagues Washington Litigation Group and Steptoe--& for rule of law More to follow!
490147353115
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Paul Byrne @theplanetaryguy.com · 02/10/2026
This will never stop blowing my mind. A 12-year sequence of real telescope images of a star 133 lightyears away. And around it, four planets slowly orbiting. Four real exoplanets, each more massive than Jupiter, imaged as they move around their host star.
292213634
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
G_D knows we could use a few more of those, for sure! CLE or CHW, may the rift be healed.
010
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
It *was* a surreal Series in 2016, so willing to consider that an Indians Series win just might be THE thing to restore a timeline containing a functional Republic. Wait...oh shit!
110
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
As a fourth generation Cubs fan (disappointed today, sure) I heartily approve this optimistic future option for our current garbage timeline. (Also, congrats to CHW for advancing and showing us all that it's still possible for terrible teams to become really good really fast!)
000
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Whenever Texas threatens to pull funding from Dallas because Dallas did something progressive, the city cowers and tells residents, "we have to comply or the state will pull funding!" But when Texas pulls funding for Flock cameras, the city can amazingly find a way to keep them running.
fox4news.com
DPD and Flock agree to keep state-funding cameras active for a while longer
Dallas currently operates 300 active Flock license plate cameras. Another 320 were set to be unplugged due to state funding cuts but will now remain active for the next 90 days.
15624
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
And just last season they were at their historic WORST!
000
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The stability of the electric grid in TEXAS now depends upon renewables and massive battery storage, particularly during peak demand. There's no going back.
030
Reposted by Jon Nuelle
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Pretty clear to me there’s a very good case against this man for mass murder, and I’m saying that in as measured a fashion as I can. He’s order the killing of 234 people under no plausible war or legal justification. I am skeptical he will ever face legal accountability for til his but he should.
526101942233
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I'm an old who grew up rural, so for me it'll always be "doom, despair, agony, deep dark depression, excessive misery." Not necessarily in that order though.
010
Jon Nuelle @jnuelle.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Same. It would be useful to have a "I have somehow bullshitted myself, yet again" detector.
020